***The Official 2024 NFL Pick 'Em Discussion Thread ***

Truth! Week 18 is even more challenging than week 1 because of the possibility of resting players. Compounding matters, some teams’ decision depends on earlier games - Pittsburgh, for example. By kickoff, they may (ok, probably) have no shot at the division title. Tomlin doesn’t seem like a coach who would rest starters, but if guys are banged up, he might.

 

If you want to really test how good people are at predicting outcomes, simulate what they'd do in Vegas. Predict the winner based on the spread.

 

I think thats good DK. The point spread doesn't really predict or determine outcomes as it changes based on betting and is adjusted in order to encourage bets one way or the other.

 

I'm not really interested in something so complicated. I do straight up and that's all. But if you guys want to go for it, then certainly do so.

 

Were you planning on making it a round by round pick ‘em, or a cumulative game which goes throughout the playoffs? If the latter, then you could make points in the SB the tiebreaker.

I’m not really sure what else you could add to a playoff pick ‘em.

 

Glad to help!

 

Miami blowing a lead in the division last year was big news, yet when the Steelers choke away a division they had under control (losing to a bunch of teams with winning records, btw), nobody seems to mention it.

Things that make you go hmmmmm….

 

They went 2-5 in their last 7 games. They “snuck” into the playoffs. They are just soft, can’t play in cold weather, and need a new QB, HC, and GM.

 

A little apples and oranges, don’t you think? I don’t think the Steelers were a sexy thing before the season and there were not the same expectations…

 

This preseason the Steelers were either 7th or 8th ranked for best odds to win the SB with about +2000 odds. In comparison the Dolphins were 19th with +20,000 odds.

And last year I don’t remember the odds, but the Dolphins were projected to win 9.5 games while the Steelers were projected to win 8.5.

So, their expectations this year were much higher than the Dolphins and last year were close to the same.

 

Not at all - they had a lead in their own division and choked it away, losing to winning teams in the process, including a loss to their arch rivals who were in second place at the time! Can’t get much more apples to apples than that.

Steelers expectations may not have been really high in the preseason, but they rose dramatically throughout the season, and they were being talked about as AFC challengers to the Bills and Chiefs before they fell apart.

 

Agree to disagree not the same in my eyes, don’t recall Steelers putting in the resources we did and their division is not even close to comparable when you look at the quality of the teams.

 

It was really expected to be a patched together, transition year for the Steelers. Russell Wilson was a short term fix at QB, and it was largely expected that if they had a mediocre season, they'd be in the mix for a long term answer in the draft. As it is, their playoff season featuring a bunch of tight wins has probably put them into limbo again.

A very Wanny-era Dolphins feel to what's happening with them right now.

 

Washington v Tampa is the toughest pick this week for me. I can see either team being a spoiler in the NFC this year. Tampa beat Washington and Philly so gotta go their way. Don't know what it is about the Bucs, always the underdog, but frequently the Alpha Dog.

 

It’s been a while, but the Chargers Chargered today, and Herbert was the main culprit.

 

Might be time for Denver to try something other than run, run, pass, punt.

 

Nix had a nice game. 94 passer rating.

 

Denver seemed a little too conservative in their play calling, maybe to protect Nix, I don’t know. I really hope you’re right about the Ravens next week, TDK - don’t want Jackson’s playoff disappearance to happen against Buffalo.

 

No offense taken bro.

I think Nix played like a rookie, but he looked better than Hurts, Love, and Herbert.

 

They definitely look unstoppable. I think the Ravens go up to Buffalo next week and knock the Bills out. Which will make my day.

 

I think Tennessee might have a worse GM than we do - they gave away AJ Brown (the main reason people think Hurts is good) and let Henry walk. Those two are an offense by themselves.

 

AJ Brown was traded in 2022. Tannehill's stats went way down in 2021. He played with AJ for a full year while posting an 89.6 rating. Tannehill's stats went down not because he was lacking weapons. He just wasn't good enough to sustain elite statistical play for more than 2 years (elite statistical play was an anomaly for him).

 

No way was that patchwork defense going to be able keep them in that game. Goff must have forgot his contact lenses.