Season 2024 Playoff Talk.

Yes, I was obviously wrong on Eason but I wanted us to trade down for Love, Hurts or Eason instead of picking Tua or Herbert at 5.

 

Never said anyone could do it, and yes Tua is definitely better than any of the horrible backups we've put behind him, but the point I made is if you give Herbert the weapons Tua has he could do a lot more with them IMO.

Even Tyreek has been floating the possibility of wanting to go to the Chargers so he might think the same.

 

Herbert has done a lot worse than Tua in the playoffs. Don't try to equate the two by saying "not done much better". Herbert is a lot worse. That much is clear now after the Houston debacle. So it's fine if you like Herbert more, but let's be clear that winning playoff games is no longer your primary goal. You are forced to contradict your previous position. Just admit that and we're fine.

 

You were right about Tua being injury prone (which is a serious thing of course), but wrong about almost everything else regarding what Tua could or could not do as QB. That's when all the goalpost moving occurred.

 

No, your strawman argument is completely ridiculous. And no, Tua has not proven he can win playoffs games at all. Not anymore than Herbert has. Tua has not proven **** regarding the playoffs except that he can't even get us there on a regular basis and can't win even if we do make it.

 

It's not a strawman. You're trying to equate Herbert with Tua in the playoffs. Herbert is FAR worse than Tua in the playoffs. He has proven that. And nowhere did I say Tua "can win" in the playoffs. I said Herbert is far worse than Tua in the playoffs, not that Tua is great.

You're not getting out of this one. If you want to win in the playoffs Herbert is clearly the worse choice because he's the bigger choker.

 

Checkmate!

 

I will look at each player in a box and come to that conclusion..

I believe we just witnessed the best overall rookie season by a Qb and yes I’m going to include whatever he does in the playoffs, ever. And I’m not just gonna use passing stats to justify that claim, I’m including the almost 1,000 yards rushing..

Best I’ve seen since Dan but I’m bias on that.

jmo.

 

lol that’s funny

 

You have to apply credit for having the skill set that mitigate pressure, that’s how Tua deals with it.

I have no dog in this race now, everyone who wears our uniform that was a captain ( besides “sieler Campbell Brooks), a coach and anyone who works for the team in a football capacity, I’ve lost trust in, which includes the coach, GM, and Qb.

I’Ve been done sticking up for the head coach and Qb, and I’m done sticking up for Tua.

 

Context does matter

Tua played with and won more games than he lost with Mike Gesicki, Devante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Isiah Ford, Lynn Bowden, Preston Williams, Matt Breida, etc garbage.

the one thing about Tua, are those elite traits he does possess, Anticipation, speed of process, Accuracy, ball handling, release.

all elite traits in his game, if the team could protect him he can elevate any skill players game.

 

The rebuild will start next year.This team isn't going anywhere.

 

If Tua misses any games and we miss the playoffs again things are getting blown up. New HC with a 1st round QB for 2026. McDaniel will be on the hot seat next year foe shizzle.

 

The system argument doesn’t hold water. If it was the SYSTEM and not Tua… Thompson, Bridgewater, Brissett, White and Huntley would have all lit the field up.

Can’t have this both ways.

 

Dolphins basically need to hit on 5 positions this draft. Two guards, a DT, LB and a safety. Do that, build some depth and there's no reason to believe we can't compete for the East title.

 

LB would be the last on that list if they resign Dodson. Liked what I saw from our LBs this season especially from Brooks. Brooks is probably the best MLB we‘ve had since Dansby…

 

Getting to the playoffs is not enough.The point of the rebuild shouldn't be 7th seed and first rd bounce.
1 playoff win or bust for me.

 

If they are able to re-sign him it would be a big boost. Even so, I still believe we need another LB.

 

We do, but as you already mentioned there are more urgent needs.

 

They have to get some help in free agency; I don’t think they will be able to address all those needs via the draft. If they stay at 13, they should be able to cross off either DT or S off that list. I doubt they take a guard or linebacker that early.

 

Being better than thmposon, Bridgewater, brisket, and Huntley is a very low bar. Obviously Tua is significantly better than those. Nobody has argued anybody can do it. But you give Herbert Tua's weapons and he'd be contending for a super bowl right now.

 

He had Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler all in their primes at one point.

 

lol.. Herbert has been terrible in the playoffs and you think he'd be contending for a SB? That pick 6 wasn't due to him not having good WRs. That was Herbert under pressure — something that happens a lot in the playoffs. He's more likely to choke the win away than win a playoff game, at least based on what we've seen thus far.

 

This was with his defense getting turnovers all over the place. In Herbert's two playoff games, his defenses have gotten him 8 turnovers and he's 0-2. That's called choking.

 

He played with the #1 defense throughout the season. Choking is correct.

 

Its pretty odd seeing some people who are very much against any excuses for Tua looking under any rock they can to find excuses for Herbert.

1 of the interceptions wasn't his fault but the other 3 absolutely were. Saying otherwise is just clowning it up.

 

Anytime you ask "how much better" you need to define an outcome variable that matters to you. The most important in sports is winning, so you want to relate passer rating to win%. This graph (and the equation in it) provides that relation for passer ratings adjusted to 2019 levels.


So how much better is 130 than 110? Using that equation, if you plug in 110 you get 71.2% chance of winning a game, while if you plug in 130 you get 92.8% chance of winning the game. That gives you a decent comparison: each point increase in passer rating increases win% by approximately 1%.

Now.. that relation really isn't linear. I just fit a linear function to it for simplicity. Obviously it asymptotes (can't go above 100% or below 0%) so you'd really fit a sigmoidal function to that, but unless you're interested in passer ratings below 50 (like Herbert recently) or above 130 there's no need to go there. Probability of winning or losing is never 100% or 0% technically speaking of course, until the game is over.

 

Tua was 6-5 this year for a 54.6% win%. Tua's rating this year was 101.0 which translates to an expected 61.5% win%. Over 11 games that's 6.76 games won, so we should have been 7-4 with Tua not 6-5. Basically a 1 win difference.

 

Harbaugh better have a helluva halftime speech prepared.

 

Jackson is a 1000 yard rusher? Do we even have any RBs that reached a thousand yards?

 

Baltimore is moving the ball, but keeps shooting themselves in the foot in Buffalo territory.

 

Bills bullying the Ravens in the trenches at the moment. Ravens bullied the Steelers last week and Henry was having his way with them.

But we were more worried about the offensive line than Chris.

 

The Ravens need a couple more drives like that, plus a defensive stop or two, and they will be on to KC.

 

He's definitely gotten better. Wasn't good enough for the win. One of those turnovers was the difference. That's the playoffs.

 

127 passing yards by Allen