A look at Dolphins playoff hopes

As Tua is on track to miss his 2nd must-win game to clinch a playoff spot due to a hip injury. I can't believe you were able to type that without falling down laughing. Well done.

 

Background? You were clamoring for us to sign Rodgers when he became a free agent, and said the Jets would be "monsters" with him.

 

Yes, major concerns no doubt. Doesn't change the fact that if we get rid of Tua we're in a huge QB hole that may take a very long time to get out of. Hard to find a QB as good as Tua out there. The solution isn't to get rid of Tua, it's to beef up the OL and get a good backup QB.

 

Rodgers wasn't a free agent and never became one. So yes, what was the background?

 

Sorry, traded. Point is, you were completely wrong about how good Rodgers would be. If we followed your advice this team would have given up a ton to get a washed up former elite QB. We'd be in far worse shape than we are now.

 

Nope. The solution was to walk away this offseason which they could have done and start the rebuild. Not to mention, Tua playing on the option wouldn't have prevented the Dolphins from keeping him. Terrible terrible decision to extend when they did at the money they did.

 

I'm definitely surprised at how badly Rodgers has performed, and was wrong about that aspect.

But far worse shape? No sir. We'd be out of that deal and rebuilding.

 

How long did it take to get a good QB on this team after Marino? That's how hard it is, and you want us to go down that route again. Say what you want but Tua put up 3 statistically elite seasons in a row. No Dolphins QB has ever come close to that since Marino. You don't just throw that away and tear everything down because we can't win the SB yet.

 

He's only elite statistically for 3 years because you are so basic in your analysis. You'd get laughed at anywhere outside of a Dolphins forum.

 

No I wouldn't. I know it's really hard for you because you like stats and can't stand the fact Tua is playing statistically elite for 3 consecutive years. But that's a fact. And you don't get rid of QBs like that, especially when they do that early in their careers.

 

Yes, you really really would. Your basic statistical analysis is adorable, but laughable when compared to the extremely advanced proprietary stats teams use. It's 2nd grade vs post-doctorate/professional.

Go post a poll with your analysis on the NFL subreddit and ask if Tua has been elite for 3 years. Let me know how that goes.

 

Shows how little you know about stats. The proprietary stuff is actually what's laughable. They claim to be capable of apportioning credit when behind all that code is a set of subjectively assigned set of parameters. It's proprietary because they don't want people to see the warts! ESPN's proprietary QBR rating is a great example. Note however that this doesn't include deep learning models because with the same data you can get the same predictions.

And I don't need any poll. I've well enough versed in advanced statistical analysis to know this. You however clearly are not.

 

First of all, the statistics revolution in football started from outsiders well before NFL teams caught onto it. Secondly, these NFL teams aren't hiring the best talent out there in statistical analysis. Just need to look at who works where to see that. Third, the main revolution is not happening at the team level, it's at companies such as Amazon and others that actually do have top talent.

You have no idea what you're talking about. Like literally, hoping to say something relevant to the discussion when you're totally ignorant.

 

For the record, I was NOT in the “Tank for Tua” camp.

For the record, I did NOT want to draft Tua as our had (and STILL) so many more holes to fill.

Now that’s on record, losing this last game or winning this last game and making or no making the playoffs is not going to have any impact on whether Grier stays or goes. The draft position is 12th or 15th if I remember correctly, whether we make the playoffs or lose.

Grier’s fate has already been determined so hoping we lose so it ends up in Grier’s firing is naive and gullible. Like I said, his fate has already been decided. One game isn’t making a difference whether he keeps his job or is fired. Bottom line on Grier, we all know my feelings.

A true fan always…ALWAYS cheers for his team.

 

Working out well for Cleveland

 

Record noted.

Well I disagree. I think it will have an impact on Ross decision making if they miss the playoffs with this talented roster. That's more egregious and I think would result in larger fan outrage which might finally push Ross to act.

We may not agree on the likelihood of losing impacting an event, but "true fans" root for their team to lose all the time. It's silly to ignore this reality.

 

I didn't say it was. I just said you'd be out of the deal sooner. The Dolphins never needed to give Watson that extension Cleveland did. That's why he waived his NTC for Cleveland.

Also most importantly, the Dolphins never would have needed to enter Watson sweepstakes if they just drafted Herbert like I wanted.

 

I hope carson wentz has a showcasing performance to try to improve his status in the league.

i gotta say, the fact that this may be Aaron’s final game, has me a little nervous.

 

He would have always wanted a new deal and would have always got one. Maybe not with the full guarantee but best case is you are about to cut him and eat some dead cap to end what would be probably the worst trade of all time.

 

Just think about Marino's last game and you might not feel so nervous. Not everyone goes out on top.

 

I don't agree. There was no talk of any extension when the Dolphins were involved. It only came into the equation after Dolphins dropped out, multiple teams got involved, Watson had all the leverage, and the Browns basically needed to do a stupid deal to get the NTC waived.

Also, again, moot if they drafted Herbert. Or are some of you still on the Tua is better than Herbert train? LOL.

PS: This is you, right?

"I would rather hope Watson elevates the WR position because he is so good" -Fireland

https://thephins.com/threads/tua-is-not-the-problem.96818/page-18#post-3432591

 

Some folks, and I believe you’re in that camp, put WAY too much stock in the draft.

It was 1995 I believe, the Dolphins roster had like 32 first round draft picks on the team. THIRTY TWO 1st round picks.

And how did the Dolphins finish the season? A dismal 9-7.

Tanking for a higher draft position is nonsensical. Tanking makes you a loser and that’s all you’ll ever be is a loser.

 

I don't want to tank just for higher draft position. I want to lose to put more pressure on Ross to fire Grier. That's really the single most important thing for this franchise to do. If Grier keeps making the selections, we'll keep going the same way we have been.

 

You’ll get ZERO argument from me about the need for Grier to go. He’s as worthless as t1ts on a man but whether or not we lose this last game isn’t going to have any bearing on it. Trust me on this.

If Grier stays or if he goes, the decision has already been made.

 

You may be right, but don't you think there would be more external pressure on Ross if they don't even make the playoffs with the cost and talent? More fans outraged? More media pieces on the failures? More critique?

 

That is me talking about what they should do if they got Watson. Someone said if they got Watson they didn't need to worry about offensive line.

Ps this is you right?

"But again, very weird year for him. Watson actually already played very well today. Do you disagree he won't bounceback? Do you disagree he doesn't have an ELITE sample size of NFL seasons? How much you want to bet Watson has a longer career than Tua in the NFL?"

https://thephins.com/threads/week-17-dolphins-vs-patriots.97973/page-11#post-3523711

I wonder who you were replying to on that one

 

The outrage and pressure has already been put on Ross. Be that pressure on whether or not Tua was the right pick…whether or not Grier’s lackadaisical approach to the offensive line…whether or not Grier has hires the right head coaches…bottom line is after 8 years of being THE GM, the Dolphins are nowhere near the powerhouse NFL team he was hired to assemble.

Rappaport reported yesterday I believe it was there are already rumors in Miami whether or not Grier would be retained as GM.

The pressure is already there.

 

Doesn't really matter. You clearly thought Watson was really good. Right? That's YOU saying "he is so good"

See? All of us got Watson wrong. Nobody really saw Watson becoming this bad after his career with the Texans. The difference is, you ALSO were wrong about Tua.

 

I agree pressure is there, but there would be additional pressure and more outrage from them missing the playoffs entirely.

I prefer that additional pressure than the chances of them competing in the playoffs. You don't, and that's fine.

 

All these years
All those contracts
Elite QB with elite statistics, injured, livin’’ it up, hangin’ on the sidelines for the most important game of his career with almost a quarter of a billion dollar contract.
Genius HC

……zero pro bowlers.

Solid rebuild



Miami Dolphins shut out of Pro Bowl games entirely
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story...02/miami-dolphins-pro-bowl-games/77400130007/

 

You are trying so at least I will give you that. Its pretty cute.

 

In other news Andrew van Ginkle is a pro bowl starter

 

According to the coach, the medical staff had to put their collective foot down to keep Tua off the field against Cleveland. Take that for what it’s worth.

 

Lol you dismissed Tua making the Pro Bowl last year because it doesn't matter.

 

I celebrated every win under Brian Flores and that 1st year team of undrafted rookies showed more heart than just about any team we've ever fielded. I have never, ever in my life rooted for the Fins to lose a single game....especially that year! That may have been the worst team in the history of the league and those kids were playing for their careers. I was proud of what they accomplished.

 

Question- with AI and machine learning, how much do you see those proprietary formulas changing in the next 5-10 years? They're in their infancy now and being touted as something that they're not; for example, I have Gemini on my Pixel phone and it makes at least one error every conversation I have with it. That won't be the case long term though and AI should dominate in statistical analysis....at least in my opinion.

 

Most of what is called AI nowadays is really a DLM = deep learning model, which is a subset of machine learning which is a subset of AI. DLMs aren't really proprietary. There's a jungle of different DLMs out there, but you can replicate them. It's just that you might not have the same data to train the DLM on to get the same result. The primary reason for the errors you're seeing — sometimes called "hallucinations" (they literally make up stuff) — is because the complex mathematical function fit to the training set (the data you trained the DLM on) overfits the data in some way so that it doesn't work well on a different dataset.

The main problem with DLMs from a point of view of replacing traditional statistics or science is that it leverages complexity from the outset, meaning it never searches for a simple underlying principle like human mathematicians and scientists have so successfully discovered. That kind of ability is unlikely to be replaced by a black box DLM that can predict well, but isn't robust in its predictions (doesn't work well on novel data) and can't easily be "fixed" if it makes an error — because the underlying mathematical function is extremely high parameter, no human understands it, which means that if you try to "fix" an error, it inevitably creates an unintended new one.

The current DLM "revolution" if you want to call it that will have a lasting impact, but it will come nowhere close to replacing the human intellect anytime you need to discover underlying principles to how things work. At least that's my take. No one really knows, so we'll see.

 

Well you and Brian Flores got Tua with those wins instead of Joe Burrow. Sometimes you need to step back and look at the bigger picture.

 

Worst offensive skill position players in the history of the league*. The defense had players on it and Flores never cracked a top 20 defense in three seasons and often scared players away.

 

The defense was 6th in points allowed (most important defensive metric) in Flores' 2nd year. Fell back to 16th in the 3rd year.

The worst teams in NFL history are probably Tampa Bay in 1976 where they went 0-14 and were dead last (28th) on offense and 2nd to last (27th) on defense, and Cleveland in 2017 who did the same thing in a 16 game season and with 32 teams: 0-16, 32nd on offense and 31st on defense. Dolphins 1st year under Flores doesn't come close to all-time worst with a 5-11 record.