A look at Dolphins playoff hopes

People in the Club brought up a good point. We want the Texans to actually beat KC because we want KC to be playing for something against Denver.

 

Yeah.. personally I don't think that will matter much. Reid doesn't seem like the kind of guy who takes it easy at the end. KC also tends to finish strong regardless, and for whatever reason they're just really lucky this year. It'll be interesting. Glad there's still a glimmer of hope. It makes the games more interesting to watch.

 

Yeah, but if KC wraps up the first seed before they play Denver they may rest guys.

 

Ok, just putting it out there until we are officially eliminated from playoff contention. Miami's ONLY path to the playoffs is as follows:

First, Miami has to win out against San Francisco, Cleveland and NY Jets.

The rest of our playoff hopes rest with the Chargers. I just ran the simulator with several different scenarios

For Week 16
Since the Chargers beat Denver, whatever else happens this week doesn't matter.

For Week 17
New England has to beat the Chargers
If Denver beats Cincinnati, Miami it the #7 seed; If Cincinnati wins, Miami is the #6 seed

For Week 18
The Raiders have to beat the Chargers

If the Chargers win either next week again New England OR against the Raiders, we're officially eliminated

 

The Chargers could end up 11-6 and the Dolphins could still get in.

 

Some more possibilities:

 

It's over folks. No sense in palying these mental gymnastics. We are not going to the playoffs this year. Get over it.

We need to fire Grier soon as possible. That is the only way to look hopefully toward the future.

 

Oh I agree, our post season hopes ended last week. I was just pointing out the “possibility” for those who cared.

 

Huh????????

 

The Chargers could still win 11 games and the Dolphins could still get into the playoffs. You said the only way for the Dolphins to get in was if the Chargers lost out.

 

I’m pretty sure most here (including me) don’t think the Dolphins are getting in. This thread is about possibilities of getting in, however, and there are still multiple ways for them to do it.

I, for one, will hope one of these possibilities happens. I just don’t see it happening.

 

Completely false. I already pointed out the most realistic path, in which the Chargers are irrelevant. The most realistic path is Dolphins winning out, Denver losing out, and Indy losing one. Chargers can happily win out in that case.

And that specific path isn't that unrealistic because Denver plays at Cinci and then plays KC. The hard part is getting Indy to lose one against Tennessee, NYG or Jacksonville.

 

Indy could still win out and we could still get in under certain conditions.

 

We'd still get leathered at either Buffalo or Baltimore anyway so, does it really matter? I certainly wouldn't want more humiliation in Buffalo, just to extend the season by a week.

 

It matters. It tells you a lot about McD and Tua. Having more data on what they do in the playoffs or on the road to it is always useful. This playoff discussion is just pointing out that we're not really done yet in evaluating McD and Tua in do-or-die games.

 

As cbrad wrote, it matters. Winning and getting into the playoffs is the number one priority out of a list of priorities.

Get into playoffs
Win division
Win a playoff game
Get to SB
Win SB

These are the steps involved for a successful season. And you can’t get to #5 without first getting #1. No matter what, if you don’t get to the playoffs, you’ll never win a SB. And once a team gets to the playoffs literally anything could happen, no matter the likely hood.

 

Any true Dolphin fan should be rooting for a playoff spot. Anything can happen once you're in.

 

Colts are blowing out the Titans. A Colts loss is going to have to wait another week or two.

 

It’s better if the Colts lose, but they don’t have to. If Colts, Dolphins, Cinci, Chargers, and Denver all go 9-8 then the Colts and Dolphins get in.

 

Titans within one score with 3 minutes and all three timeouts.

 

Not saying I'm not rooting. I watch every game rooting for the win. Every game. Don't get me confused with one of the McDaniel/Tua out brigade. I just know what will happen. Ok, I don't 'know' but I have a pretty good idea.

 

Our slim path to the playoffs is it bit more clear at this point. Please let me know if I leave anything out.

Need
2 losses from Denver and 2 losses from the Chargers. That is the easiest path for us (assuming we win out).

2 losses from Denver, one loss from LA
2 losses from LA, one loss from Denver.
(We also need the Colts to lose a game. It's possible considering they haven't won three games in a row all season. They own the tie breaker over us due to us pathetically losing to them earlier this year.)

We also own TB over Cincinnati due to having the tougher conference schedule.

Again...This is assuming we can win out AND not somehow $hit the bed against the Jets in the last game. It'd be so Miami Dolphin of us to be in a win=in position only to lose embarrassingly.

This week we're Patriot, Bengal, and Giants fans. Cincinnati can definitely beat Denver, but sadly, I think the Chargers and Colts get Ws.

In week 18 we're Vegas fans against the Chargers (only if they lose to the Pats).

Denver will be playing KC....So, rewind back to week 17, it'd be nice if Pittsburgh could beat KC which would in turn give KC incentive to play the following week. Assuming Denver loses to the Bengals...We would all become KC fans in week 18.
Once again...We absolutely need the Colts to stumble either this week against the Giants OR in week 18 against...Jacksonville.

Let me know if I have this right.

 

No it's not correct. I've been saying the same thing in so many posts now, from the first one on this subject, but the Chargers are irrelevant if we're talking about the Denver route. It's simple: Dolphins win out, Denver lose out, Indy lose one. That's all that's required.

 

We need three sets of outcomes to make the playoffs. In other words, all three things must happen.

1) Dolphins win the last two games

AND

2) Colts lose at least one game

AND

3a) Chargers lose both of their last games

AND/OR

3b) Broncos lose both of their last games

If the Chargers AND the Broncos each win one more game or we lose one more game, then our season is over. We do have the tie-breaker against the Chargers, Broncos, and Bengals though, plus several of the three-way scenarios go our way. There MIGHT BE a 3 or 4 way tie-breaker that goes our way if Indy wins out, but I'm not digging that far into it this week.

 

If the Bengals, Chargers, Denver, Colts, and Dolphins all go 9-8 then the Colts and Dolphins would be in.

 

I'm pretty sure if both Denver and LA drop the next two (and we win out) we are in. Denver losing is our best path, but there are multiple ways we can get in. We also need a Colts loss unless of course Denver and LA lose their games.

 

So do I. I mean, we aren't naive enough to think our playoff chances are a REAL possibility but as long as we're in the hunt we can still root and hope. Isn't that what fans do ? The "lose for draft position " mentality is something I refuse to do. Nothing is guaranteed in the draft so I always pull for a win.

 

Ok, I was inaccurate yesterday. I wasn't being completely false brad...such a negative connotation there lol

Ok, our playoff path lies as such:

First off, have to win out. If we lose another, it's over.

Scenario #1
Denver loses to Kansas City AND Cincinnati
Indianapolis loses either one of their remaining two

Scenario #2
Denver and LA Chargers both lose their 2 remaining games

Scenario #3
Sceanrio #2 AND a loss from Indianapolis on either of their last 2 games, Miami is the number 6 seed

 

Gets easier as the games get fewer. Lol

I think all of us have been incorrect or missed some things regarding getting into the playoffs over the past few weeks.

 

Technically, it was completely false to say "ONLY path" because there is no room for anything else to be true.

 

Stranger things have happened but...

With Kansas City's week 18 game being a completely meaningless game, it's pretty much a forgone conclusion the Chiefs will sit the majority of their starters for the season finale against the Broncos. Denver's odds of winning their last game and securing the final playoff spot have dramatically increased.

I like the Dolphins' chances of winning their season finale against the Jets, who have imploded but with the stars aligning for the Broncos the way they have, I'm not very confident in their chances of securing that last spot. I'm certain the Chiefs looking long term would rather have the Bills face the Broncos in the playoffs rather than the Dolphins...so sitting their starters will be a belated Christmas present to them.

It's been one heck of a season, and I don't mean that in the best of terms but I'm sure following next Sunday, the boards are going to be hopping with arguments of could'a, should'a and would'a

 

With all the times we helped that fat walrus Andy Reid by beating the Patriots for them, it's about time he returns the favor.

 

KC can only sit a few starters. We know Mahomes and likely Jones are two them. That leaves a couple of guys who were injured in their last game who would miss Denver. I'd expect the entire OL to play and their RBs. Just have to hope Wentz plays a good ball control, error free game. We know defensively they will be solid. I have hope

 

I have hope. You would think KC has nothing to play for. But the guys out there have their careers to play for. Carson Wentz wants to continue playing and is again auditioning for next year. And what team wants to lay down and let a division opponent into the playoffs? Let's go Taylor!

 

A 9-8 season would be good. You could see games again Arizona, Indy and Tennessee as games the Phins would have won if Tua didn't moronically get another concussion. So they could have been a 12-win team.

But I still don't see them as top tier. I don't think I can take another week of all this cold-weather talk heading into another first round playoff loss.

Take the consolation prize of yet another winning season and move on to next year to fill some holes. Like Backup QB!!!! Beating the Jets again would be nice as well.

That's all in Denver's hands now though.

 

9-8 would be fantastic after a 2-6 start even if we miss the playoffs due to KC resting key starters. That means we'd end 7-2 on the season, which is a good sign — always want to end strong.

And yes Tua's moronic decision to dive head first into a defender after making the first down would be the reason for either not making the playoffs, or not having a higher seed so we don't have to play Buffalo.

Offseason needs are OL, some key pieces on defense, and backup QB. However, Huntley's performance yesterday was so good that we have to seriously consider the possibility we already have that backup QB on the roster. Depends on whether he can perform that way more consistently.

 

Yep, backups might care more and put in better effort than more talented starters. Of course there are reasons that they aren't starting. I have two games to care about next week now.

 

Exactly! As cbrad wrote, ending the season 7-2 would be fantastic. Tua being stupid is why we aren’t already in the playoffs. The defense is good, Tua is elite (when he’s not making dumb decisions that leads to injury) and the running and passing game is set. Get a couple of OG’s, some OL depth, and a couple of safeties in the offseason… stay relatively healthy…and this team could go far.

I still hope Grier is fired (not holding my breath though), I want to give McD at least one more season, and hopefully no one snatched up Weaver.