Tua on pace for historic season

I'm confused...we got smoked against Green Bay. Are we back to it's about stats, not wins and losses?

Does completion percentage win games?

Another example of passer rating not telling the story. His QBR (flawed as it may be) had him at a 57.9. Love's QBR was 83.5. The indication here is that Love's play had a larger impact on the game than Tua's.

 

Obviously losses are a QB stat. Wins are a team stat.

 

Nope, not at all what I'm saying

 

Is the title of the the thread "The Dolphins are on pace" or, "Tua is on pace"? Even a QB playing well isn't enough to guarantee a win. But, when discussing a QB's play, talking about that QB's play in losses is also relevant. I don't know why you would find this confusing. It seems like the usual goal post moving and subject changing on Tua. The historic pace was not wins. Did you think it was wins?

 

Use passer rating instead of ESPN's QBR. Love's passer rating was higher: 129.2 vs. 114.2 so you could have made the same argument using passer rating. ESPN's QBR is 10,000 lines of proprietary code that leads to too many absurd results. For example, the highest QBR in all of NFL history is 99.9 by Charlie Batch who was 12/17 for 186 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/boxscore/_/gameId/300926027

That is the BEST ever game played by a QB in all of NFL history according to ESPN's QBR. Unless you or anyone else is willing to defend that kind of absurdity no one should use ESPN's QBR.

As far as your overall point, there's nothing wrong with arguing Love had a greater influence on the game than Tua. He played well. But what Tua's 114.2 shows is that Tua was not the primary reason for the loss. Average passer rating this year is 92.1 so 114.2 is very good. In that game, we only had 39 yards rushing compared to 365 yards passing and the defense gave up 30 points. And emphasizing that Tua is not the problem is important given all the anti-Tua arguments that have been made over the years.

 

Oh I got it when he quoted me with that reply. That's not even what I had initially meant. I get it now...If Tua beats the Texans...It'll only be because the game was played indoors and therefore despite Houston being a good playoff team, the win will count for nothing because of the aforementioned advantage that Tua had playing on the road. Got it. So basically he has to win in Buffalo in January and then in KC in January in order for anything he does to count.

 

I have to remember to point this out next time someone wants to debate QBR. I am just going to cut and paste part of your post if it's on line.

 

Mmmkay....But what you are snarkily trying to imply has nothing...zero to do with that actual topic. Wins are a "team" accomplishment. I don't know how many times that needs to be reiterated to you. You do realize that Tua does not play on defense nor is he responsible for the required amount of blocking that allows enough time for him to throw the football??? He only plays one position out there. I'd be shocked to see him lining up at safety or corner back. I know in high school a lot of players play multiple positions, but it's very rare in the NFL. Kordell Stewart and Dion Sanders are rare examples of it being done in the NFL. You shouldn't be expecting Tua to play linebacker and defensive end while also being our quarterback! Those are completely unrealistic expectations Res. Like I said...It takes a "team" effort to win games. Tua can't kick field goals or return kicks. I mean there's so much more that goes into it other than the quarterback position. Watch a game and you'll understand.

 

This is just how it goes until Super Bowl. Manning, Brees, and so forth all had the same.

 

There was such vitriol against Tua during the draft (go back to that thread to see the hatred), the first few years with Flores seemingly confirming their initial assessment, and then the systematic goalpost moving during the McDaniel years where Tua proved one after another assessment wrong. They're dug in too deep.

 

Maybe, just maybe, it has something to do with some of the pro Tua crowd…

 

Point is great weapons make a QB better.

 

so, saying a QB will do well indoors is now a slight on the QB, LOL talk about totally ridiculous. Might have something to do with the weapons able to play faster on the turf? Perhaps maybe just maybe every single comment is not about the QB?????

 

remember Marino played on some of the worst defenses in team history

 

But, he did get us there and into the playoffs many times with playoff wins. Still validated? Still patting yourself on the back? Pretty sure his record against good teams was a winning % too.

 

Marino not winning any SB can't be just blamed on the defense. He was part of the problem too.

In 1983 the Dolphins had the #1 defense. Marino had 2 TDs and 2 INTs with a 77.6 rating in the Divisional playoff game and lost 20-27. In 1984 the Dolphins had the #7 defense. It's true they didn't show up in the SB but Marino played bad in that SB throwing 1 TD and 2 INTs for a 66.9 rating. In 1990 the Dolphins had the #4 defense and in 1998 the #1 defense (where Marino had 0 TDs and 2 INTs).

Marino not winning a SB is partly on him even if more of the blame is on the defense. He had 17 years to win one and didn't. That's a major reason why almost no one puts him in their top 3 of all time (most people would probably put in top 5-10 in NFL history).

 

True, but why is it some QB's can still lead teams to wins despite their defenses being terrible?

 

Hope he gets Waddle to 1000 yards this season since he and Waddle are having really down year for them.

 

It's confusing because stats are relatively meaningless.

 

Relative to what? Stats are results. If you think there is context that change the value or meaning of the results then make that argument. I hope it's better than, ya but Dolphins lost! Historically, lots of QBs put stats up in losing games, and Tua is doing things that the vast majority did not. It's really cool as a fan of a team having a very up and down (more downs than ups so far) season to have this ongoing performance as a discussion point.

 

Yeah, that would be historic for Waddle. Best start to a career for any WR drafted by the Dolphins. Hills greatness overshadows just how incredible Waddle has been IMO.

 

Actually, you're right, that's my bad.

I really shouldn't have made that post in here. If you'd like, I'll delete it.

 

Nope. You handled it like an adult. Thank you.

 

You mean like how Tua lead the Dolphins to 11 wins and the playoffs with a bottom 1/3 defense last year?


This way of thinking just leads to nothing.

Since Tua has come back, the TEAM has gone 4-3 even though Tua’s worst PR was a 98 and everything else was over 100 (league average this year is around 92).

For context, Allen has had 5 games this year with a passer rating of 95 and under and the Bills are 3-2 in those games. In one of those games he had a 60 passer rating and the Bills won.

 

Top Right Tua makes a return to show that he doesn't lock in, which was a misconception some had, thanks to his quick decisions:

 

Fake news. Tua is told prior to each play who he needs to throw to and he just throws it there regardless.
At least that is what I’ve been told.

 

btw.. if we beat Houston tomorrow, the claim Tua can't beat good teams on the road in games that are crucial to get into the playoffs will be the next goalpost that has to be moved. We already beat the Rams in LA, and if we do the same with Houston that will be 2 out of 3 this year (he lost to the Packers). All that remains is winning in the cold, which he can hopefully demonstrate later this year, and winning in the playoffs (which he also hopefully demonstrates later this year).

Also, Tua's availability rate is now getting close enough to league norm that it's no longer a major source of criticism. Since he started in week 7 of 2020 he's missed 14 games out of 76 (counting the playoff games) for a 81.6% availability rate. The league average for QBs from 2000-2019 was 84.4%. Over a 17 game season that's a difference of just under half a game. If Tua manages to start the last 4 games this season the difference will be 1/3 of a game less started per 17 game season, i.e., no difference in practice to league norm.

 

Two wins in one season doesn'change anything. It's a nice sign, but he'll need to do that consistently moving forward if you want to knock that charge away.

Also, saying he struggles in those situations/games doesn't mean that he NEVER shows up in those games. Just that it's normal for him not to. It's not a black and white thing, where he does it once and that is supposed to change a narrative.

This is not me trying to bag on him, this isn't me saying he hasn't turned it around. This is me saying it is going to take more than two games in one season to change my thoughts on him regarding disappearing in big games. Hopefully he has turned that corner.

 

We lost three of the last 4, right, which lost us the division, right? Then we got absolutely smoked in the playoff game, right?

You act like last season had no disappointments and no problems, Tua was perfect.

 

If your argument is consistency, then you can't criticize Tua for anything with too small sample size because we don't know what the pattern is longer term. Importantly, that means you can't attack him for not doing well in the playoffs because there's been only 1 playoff game he's played, which tells you nothing about long term performance.

I think that's important to note. If people start claiming Tua has to prove something consistently when they were attacking him based on very small sample size, then that's once again an example of goalpost moving.

 

Did Tua really lose to the Packers? He had a 114 PR. It was cold, late season, and away.

 

Consistent? Are you sure you're looking at things correctly? He's consistently putting up good numbers in team losses. Blaming one guy, even when they play great, for a team loss is shortsighted and lazy. Actually, it shows a preconceived belief that isn't reliable.

The problem, objectively, isn't Tua.

 

I'm referring to the argument made by some anti-Tua posters that a QB's win/loss record against good teams in the playoff hunt matters. Tua has already disproven the notion he can't play well in such games. But the win/loss record argument is still going strong (and if you do see a terrible win/loss record over large sample size, that is a problem for a QB even if his other stats are good — of course we don't have large sample size).

It's just another goalpost that will have to be moved if we win against Houston. And the sample size argument matters. If people are willing to use a small number of games to reach a conclusion (e.g., Tua is bad in such games), then all it takes is a small number of games to prove them wrong.