Week 8 - Cards vs Miami

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Finatik, Oct 24, 2024.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think that's a separate argument from whether Brady was more responsible for NE's success than Belichick. Even if Brady was more responsible, you have to give Belichick credit for taking Brady even if it was mostly luck. Like it or not, Belichick is one of the most successful coaches ever and I think many in the NFL would put him at #1 or at worst #3. Those 6 SB victories can't be dismissed. Winning when it matters most is extremely important, and Shula is clearly not on par with Belichick when it comes to that.

    Shula of course is also one of the best coaches ever. Walsh and Lombardi also. Those 4 are probably the best we've seen whatever order you put them in.
     
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  2. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    People do not understand context....

    So in 1982... a really good NFL QB had 3000 yards and 20 touchdown passes... 40 touchdowns or 4000 yards was not possible.

    Want proof... Okay.. Here are the passing leaders from 1982.

    Fouts... 2883
    Montana 2613

    Touchdowns?

    Bradshaw 17
    Fouts 17
    Montana 17

    Qb rating...

    Fouts. 93.3
    D. White. 91.1
    Montana 88

    So Marino in his first year as the starter...

    5000+ yards
    48 touchdowns
    Qb rating 108

    Put this in perspective....

    3 times the touchdowns
    almost double the yards.
    and QB rating what almost 20% higher.

    translate that to today where 4000 yards is a every year occurance for several QB's
    30 touchdowns happens yearly now
    QB ratings of over 100 happen yearly now

    Passing yards... 3 qbs over 4500
    QB rating. 6 starters over 100 Purdy had 113
    Touchdowns 4 qbs had over 30... Prescott had 36...

    So apply some basic math..(keeping things basic here)

    To be Marino in 1983 today... so you understand the difference in Marino vs the rest of football.

    Yards would be 7500 minimum
    Touchdowns would be 60 minimum
    Qb rating would be about 135
    (This is being conservative. If we applied the math directly the yards and TD totals would be a lot higher. More like 8500 yards and 75-80 touchdowns)

    That is what Shula had... and could not win a ring with him.

    To be fair.. Shula was old... The game was changing and he could not change with it.
     
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2024
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  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You mean 1984, which was the record breaking year. Math is a bit off but the overall point is valid.

    Look at the average stats per year league-wide to adjust stats from year to year:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

    In 1984 average yards per game was 205.9 while in 2023 (let's use a full season so ignore this year) it was 218.9. That's 6.3% higher, which means Marino's passing yards in 2023 would be expected to be 5404 if 2023 was a 16 game season (instead of 17), which is impressive but not 7500!

    For TD's the adjustment would keep his 48 TDs as 48 TDs over 16 games (TD/game is identical for 1984 and 2023), while his rating would be 127.4 instead of 108.9.

    In any case, yes that 1984 year was amazing and there's no excuse for not winning a SB that year especially since the defense was still good and ranked #7 in points allowed. Having said that Shula was a great coach. Most wins ever, great game planning, willingness to adapt to his players' strengths and of course has the only perfect season to his name. Shula's bane is SB wins. It's a bit low for someone with that kind of resume.
     
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  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This goes to show just how minute your knowledge of football truly is.

    Free agency began in 1993 in the NFL. Shula retired in 1995. Bill Belichick benefited from free agency during his entire tenure as the head coach of the Patriots, able to shop for this player, shop for that player. Shula didn't have that luxury. He didn't have the luxury of being able to sign a Thurmon Thomas or Jerry Rice or any other number of GREAT players that would have been available had free agency existed during his tenure as the Dolphins head coach. He had to do things the old fashioned way...he had to KNOW what kind of player he was getting in the draft or what player to trade for and what to give up to get said player.

    To even compare the winningest head coach in NFL history with a head coach who benefited finding a diamond in the rough with Brady and the NFL rulebook stacked in his favor is utterly ridiculous!

    You could take ANY of Belichick's teams in New England...and apply either the NFL rules then or now and I guarantee you, for example, the 1984 Dolphins would SMOKE any of those New England teams like a cheap cigar.
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Free agency helped Belichick, but Belichick also had to work with a salary cap, which means it's harder to stockpile talent for longer. That makes winning 6 SBs even more impressive. Hard to say who had it easier when you look at it that way.
     
  6. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Belicheat did not win before Brady nor after Brady.
     
  7. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    Brad.. I was showing the league before Marino got drafted...(1982) He was not initially the starter as a rookie in 1983... So I did not show his partial stats...

    His first full season in the NFL was 1984.... and I showed those stats... I thought that would be the obvious way to do it... I guess I should have stated this for you.
     
  8. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    Yet, someone on here tried to prove statistically that Marino was not very good LOL
     
  9. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Even though he's off the reservation, I don't think that's what he was doing. He was trying to say Marino was lights out but Shula sucked.
     
  10. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

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    there is a reason no team in the NFL offered him a job.
     
  11. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Maybe, but look at all of the talent he brought in via free agency. It's a wash. He lost a player, he brought in a player and with how easily the salary cap is manipulated, that wasn't a difficult obstacle to overcome.
     
  12. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    How old is he?
    Pete Carrol does not have a job either...

    It is age and time...

    Bellicheat is old school tough on players...

    Players took less money to go to New England because they won rings.. brady took a pay cut to stay there because they were winning.... (gave them a huge advantage) The second he did not win a ring... Young players disliked his way of doing things. He was 70+ and could no longer relate to a 22 year old. His time ended.
     
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  13. JJ_79

    JJ_79 Well-Known Member

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    Joe Gibbs belongs up there as well imo.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I know what you did. I'm just saying the way you adjusted is wrong. You need to look at the ratio of league average stats in year Y to league average stats in year X when extrapolating what stats in year X would be in year Y. Point is, you don't get anywhere close to 7500 yards or 60 TDs. Passer rating you weren't too far off on, but the more realistic estimate is 127.4 not 135.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No one did that. You simply made such unrealistic estimates (like Etrius in his example) that historically great is what you call "not very good". Sorry it hurt your feelings, but your view of Marino is that he's some kind of superman that no QB in history could ever come close to and that's totally unrealistic.
     

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