Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

Only if the analyzers are lazy. Comparing a QB's passer rating vs the average that the specific D gives up is more valuable than the rating for a random game for example, but takes far more work. If you think that an statistical analysis is lazy then you can always argue why you think it is. Specifics matter and give the context you want.

 

Bad context is worse than no context. ESPN's QBR is bad context. Stick with transparent stats that have high correlation to win%. Also, anyone claiming they can put stats in proper context needs to demonstrate they can improve the correlation to win% by doing so, i.e., their predictions should on average be more accurate than the stats on their own.

As you yourself have seen, that is VERY difficult to do. Often, people who claim to know how to place stats in proper context end up biasing the stats in ways that make them worse predictors. You have to be aware of the limitations of human observers too, not just limitation of stats, especially when humans disagree with each other given the same information.

 

Tua was #3 in QBR last season. Curious that QBR wasn't the determining factor last season......

 

Tua was injured for a significant part of last season, including some of the tougher games.

 

LOL. You've got rationalizations for days.....

 

Are we seriously going to start using that garbage, made up stat?

Just last week, Hurts against the Seahawks and Tua against the Jets. How on earth can anyone take QBR seriously when it's doing stuff like this?



edit: Great, I can't link from Imgur again. Works in preview but not when posted. I'll upload to imgbb instead.

 

The trouble with more complex models is they often tell you more about the modeller’s assumptions than about reality. The strength if passer rating and nY/A is that they have a robust and provable relationship to win%. EPA is another transparent stat that correlates to winning.

QBR is a fancy way of disguising your opinion to make it look like statistics.

 

QBR is a convenient way to support your narrative when you clearly have no other facts to prove your point.

 

Have to add the qualifier: "when humans specify parameters in the model".

The most complex models are machine learning models with no bias in the modeling itself (except for the choice of which type of machine learning model to use). Their bias comes from the training set — the dataset used to train the model. ESPN's QBR and FO's DVOA are examples of that middle ground where humans specify parameters in a complex model, and in those cases you're generally correct.

 

I'm guessing QBR must be factoring in scrambling since it has Allen in 3rd. I'm also guessing it's knocking Tua for all those Centre/QB exchange fumbles since Purdy and Dak are top rated in QBR but only have 1 and 2 fumbles with none lost while it has Tua down as 12 with 5 lost.

Meanwhile passer rating and PFF rating have Tua ranked 2nd and 4th I believe (don't have PFF+ to check but I think his run grade is dragging him down to 4th overall).

It's pretty obvious QBR is having issues if they think Tua has been the 11th best QB in the league this year.

 

He was what he wasn’t but what he was wasn’t because he was what he wasn’t.

 

Didn’t you just post that QBR accounts for competition?

 

LOL. You just can't make this stuff up....

 

You know, and maybe this is just me being the simpleton I am, but the ONLY stat that matters is the scoreboard at the end of the game.

If you get the “W”, then you were the better team

 

Even though I KNOW the issues that some on here have with QBR, I actually like using QBR in conjunction with the normally used Rating metric, as QBR does attempt to capture the amount the QB is contributing to a play.

 

Well, QBR can't factor in tougher competition when you don't play against the tougher competition. To me, yes, if you play a full season, QBR gives you a result that attempts to factor in opponent strength.

 

Yeah but that isn't true. Especially when referees control the outcome of games so strongly.

 

QBR is a joke.

 

If it factors in competition, then Tua would earn a lower QBR by playing against weaker teams and he still finished 3rd.

 

It factors it in because it is rating the QBs contribution to the play's success in the rating. So if a QB plays a high ranked defense and his QBR is low whole his rating is high, the QBR is saying that against the higher ranked defense, the QB was less responsible for his high rating. So, if the QB misses games against the higher ranked defenses, then the QBR will not be able to factor in the strength of opponent.

I wasn't arguing that QBR would have Tua ranked lower or anything, I was simply speaking in generalities about QBR.

 

Tua's last drive was perfect!

 

+McDaniel coached great when it mattered.

 

Perfectly called and perfectly executed

 

All Tua on that final drive until they were in FG range, then the running game kills the rest of the clock. Just perfect.

 

Tua audibles into that Tyreek screen on the last drive. Absolute masterclass.

 

Good game by Tua, we finally beat a team with a winning record.

 

All of this comparison talk…that Tua isn’t there yet…

Im watching an “elite” quarterback getting his butt handed to him by a team we beat and getting his butt handed to him good.

 

He'll get a pass. If the Raiders win, tomorrow's panel shows will all be saying Mahomes doesn't have enough help. Two years ago, when Tua only had Waddle and a friggin' sieve for an offensive line, the same geniuses said he wasn't good enough to be a franchise QB.

I don't what ticks me off more, the fact that they're so full of **** or that they've actually made me appreciate the relative objectivity of Dan Orlovsky.

 

IDK if anyone will have the nerve to defend Mahomes after what transpired today. He gave the Raiders two touchdowns in seven seconds. There's nobody else to blame but Kermit for this one.

 

Loved Orlovsky's comment "You guys are acting like he is me."

 

As long as the OL can hold the rush long enough and give Tua a CLEAN pocket, he’s going to pick them apart.

The fact he has such a quick release will bide well for us.

Defensively, keep a spy on Jackson and blanket his receivers.

 

And not give Jackson a short field by throwing four INTs.

 

A lot has changed in two years* but we'll help our cause if we don't give up a 103 yard kickoff return to start the game, a 75 yard pass for a touchdown, and a 79 yard scramble for score.

The irritating thing about the Comeback was the fact that we had huge breakdowns that put us in that hole to begin with. We need Vic to dial up a winning game plan.

*EDIT: In ONE year. For some reason, I thought Tua's miraculous second-half was in 2021 instead of 2022.

 

Do the Ravens have a speed WR? DC loves to let them run free across the defense.

 

Zay Flowers is low 4.4

 

Tua has the smoothest feet of any QB in history. Dramatically underrated part of his game. You have to be a great athlete to do this.

 

Things are different now than the year of Manning's first MVP but this is still interesting.