Tua...''He's the greatest prospect ever''

This was after Herbert's check down and screen clinic last night.

 

Head coach is very important, but don't discount the effect of a great QB. Best example is Belichick being an average HC in NE without Brady (as well as average in Cleveland) while being considered maybe the greatest ever with 6 SB's with Brady. The player — especially an elite QB — has a massive influence on the game. McDaniel has also done poorly without Tua, though it's very small sample size.

 

We'll see how Herbert ends up this year, but this is the first year he might end up in that statistically "elite" category. Average rating in the NFL this year is 89.3 thus far, and Herbert is at 101.1, which is the first time he's over 1 standard deviation above the mean.

It's still the case Tua > Herbert, not just in terms of overall career rating thus far (not a big difference, but still: 97.8 vs. 96.8) but more importantly in terms of the ability to put together an elite offense around him.

 

Tua now being carried by his pass protection. A totally ridiculous statement that I am happy to hear.

 

All true but to make my mic drop moment in how important the head coach is…

Tua with Flores vs Tua with McDaniel.

Same player, same skills, same abilities, but one knows what to do with it while the other knows how to cry racism being a man of color…fired by a man of color.

 

"He has a noodle arm."
"But his throws travel further downfield than all of the other QBs. And with greater accuracy than most."
"Successfully throwing the ball downfield doesn't show how strong your arm is."

 

If only we had a strong armed QB who could throw from the 50 yard line and hit Tyreek in stride 5 yards deep in the end zone for what's officially recorded as a 42 yard TD.
It's such a pity Tua's noodle arm prevents him from making such throws.

 

It's true though, arm strength isn't about throwing it 60 yards. It's about how fast you can throw the ball on outs or whatever...like a weaker arm has to throw sooner.

I'm not trying to argue over how strong he is or isn't, but let's be honest in our discussion. I don't think the people you're referring to were ever arguing that Tua couldn't throw the ball downfield.

 

Tua has a weaker arm than some other QBs, but the main point is it doesn't matter. Anyone focusing on arm strength when production is very high is focusing on what does NOT matter in evaluating that QB. Tua is integral to us having the #1 offense because his accuracy and decision-making speed more than compensate for any physical weaknesses.

 

I'd suggest that since #1 is riding a 2-year wave of leading the league in YPA, air yards, AND downfield accuracy (which admittedly affects the first stat), the question isn't if arm strength isn't a desired trait but if it's overrated. Tua doesn't have Burrow's or Herbert's arm strength but he's been playing at a higher level than both. At some point, it might be nice to have a car that accelerates from 0 to 60 in 4 seconds but practically, a car that takes 6 seconds to get there is more than good enough. I know people who would call the second car "slow".

Everybody has an idea of what attributes they prefer. I prefer leadership and the ability to get the ball to playmakers (wherever they are downfield) over the ability to throw a 60-yard pass that might connect 30% of the time. My QB may not fit the profile for the ideal QB but nobody else does either and he's plenty good enough.

 

Exactly. Drew Brees had a much weaker arm than Daunte Culpepper but I think we all know which one we would rather have had as our QB.

 

The people that are calling Tua's arm weak support this argument by saying his arm is not on the level of Herbert, Mahomes, etc. Problem is, while the last part is true, it's basically like saying that 1997 Toyota Supra (with a twin turbo) is slow because it "only" has a top speed of almost 180 MPH while a Lamborghini Aventador has a top speed of 217 MPH, which ignores the fact that 180 MPH is still freaking fast.

 

Tua is proof that a QB's arm doesn't need to be strong. It just needs to be strong enough. From nfl.com's next-gen stats, where he was rated the second-best deep passer last season:


Rank
2 Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins · Age 25

• Deep attempts: 27-of-50, 891 yards, 10:2 TD-INT, 122.1 passer rating
• Deep comp: 54%
• Deep xComp: 43.6%
• Deep CPOE: +10.4%
• PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99

The first half of Tagovailoa's season sure was special. In Weeks 1-9, Tagovailoa completed 15-of-25 deep attempts for 480 yards, a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio, a 110.4 passer rating, a 97 passing score and a CPOE of +14.7%. His EPA per deep-pass dropback was an eye-popping +1.27.


This is where you're expecting me to tell you everything fell apart, given the additional time Tagovailoa missed with concussion issues and Miami's reduced output over a 3-5 stretch to finish the season. But the QB's numbers don't quite fit that narrative: It turns out his performance didn't vary significantly when comparing the two halves of 2022. The biggest difference in his deep-passing stats the rest of the way ended up being in CPOE, in which Tagovailoa dropped by more than eight percentage points. Otherwise, he posted a perfect 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio from Week 10 on. In other words, he was good -- really good -- at throwing deep throughout the season, finishing as the only qualifying quarterback in the entire NFL with a deep passing EPA per dropback over 1.


If not for the spectacular year of the top QB on this list, Tagovailoa would have been No. 1. Second place isn't too bad, either.

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-s...ers-of-2022-geno-smith-tua-tagovailoa-excel-a

 

It's not about pass pro. Herbert doesn't have speedsters like Hill and Waddle quickly getting miles of separation in depth. When he throws long it's usually into tight cpverage because his recievers are mostly possession receivers with not a lot of speed to get open deep.

 

Especially since he has such a quick release. That look-off can freeze a defender for half a second and that's all the receiver needs to gain the separation needed to get the ball in space instead of fighting for a contested pass. The people arguing about him being a system QB need to ask themselves if another QB could work the system better. Teddy B., Mike White, and Skylar are all exhibits in the case that he's the secret sauce.

 

How many times are you guys going to bring up Skylar, teddy B and White? Non of them Except Skylar managed to start and finish a game under this system. You can't compare that against Tua's two seasons of work, it's not a valid comparison.

Only thing you can say is Tua is better in this system than Skyler since he is the only one that started and finished a game.

 

Can't speak for anyone else but I'll keep bringing it up until somebody else makes better passes in this offense than #1 makes. Maybe a few more times tonight if it bugs you. The sad fact of the matter (for you) is that Tua leads the league in passing right now. Which means he's doing better in McDaniel's offense than Herbert, Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, Purdy, Jackson, et.al. are doing in theirs. Either Tua's really good or McDaniel is the best coach in the game to make an average QB look that way.

 

lol.. I love how you suddenly care about sample size when you're the one who kept saying we "don't need any more data" to know Tua "has been figured out", which, like almost all your other predictions about Tua failing, have been proven wrong.

Furthermore, it's not just Skylar we can say something about, we can talk about Bridgewater too. Bridgewater was a slightly above average QB after 1200+ attempts in the 3 years prior to joining the Dolphins, and he posts a 85.6 rating after 79 attempts (78 in 3 games) when playing in McDaniel's system with Hill. At minimum you'd expect above average production right? It's totally irrelevant if he played a full game, what you go by is the 79 attempts, which is 2.3 games worth of data. The other thing to point out is that McDaniel is 1-3 without Tua starting and 14-7 with him starting.

Now I'll be the first to admit that the sample size without Tua is too small for any of these differences to be "statistically significant", but there's no valid argument saying the data without Tua is uninformative, especially because the differences are MASSIVE. The bigger the difference, the less sample size is needed to make a claim the difference is "real".

 

When I read all these comparisons of Tua with others in the league right now…as it pertains to arm strength, I can’t help but to think of Marino and Montana.

There is absolutely NO DOUBT who the better passer was. Marino could do things with that ball that Montana could only dream of but when it came to being the better QUARTERBACK on the field?

One has multiple Super Bowl championships and one doesn’t.

I see a lot of Montana traits in Tua

 

Yet people failed to mention this Tua’s first 2 seasons when he was throwing to guys who got zero separation behind a historically bad OL that gave up 50 more pressures than the next worse line.

Keenan Allen is always open btw. He is always ranked near the top for WR average separation yardage.

 

The narrative has been catalogued and parroted by a lot of people until this year- can't speak to the forum, specifically, though.

https://x.com/Phincane/status/1571930407612076034?s=20

 

Two guys you weren't excited about getting and now are so good they carry Tua

 

That's only 55 yards. Still does not prove he had a cannon of an arm.

 

Burrow is a legit stud. He had leg injury early. Now that he is healthy he has been playing very well.

I'd take Marino all day everyday. Marino does not have a HOF WR with him and their defense was light years better. Montana also had Roger Craig.

 

Keenan Allen is not a speedster or a deep threat. He runs a 4.56 40. He is a big bodied possession reciever who runs good routes, same as Mike Williams. The Chargers have no legitimate deep threats on that offense.

 

The sample size, differences, and the players you are comparing are not a valid argument. Also you are ignoring the context that a backup coming in as an emergency mid season is not going to have as much familiarity with the offense and the first team players as Tua who got to work with them all throughout camp and season in an offense built specifically for him.

 

More excuses. I know what's bugging you and it's not sample size or any of that other stuff (you never cared about any of that when saying Tua was figured out after ONE game last year). You simply can't accept Tua being integral to this offense. Because if you accept any of these comparisons, you'll have to admit Tua isn't just another Mac Jones lol!!!

Try this:

Will Levis, a rookie, started his first game for the (then) 2-4 Tennessee Titans this past week, replacing the 2nd worst QB this year among starters — Ryan Tannehill (71.9 rating with 2 TDs and 6 INTs after 158 attempts) — and he threw for 4 TDs and 0 INTs with a 130.5 rating.

Based on the view you're espousing here, there's no way a rookie (i.e., no NFL experience) should be coming in after 1 week's notice and perform TONS better than an established starter who is very familiar with an offense that was tailored around him. Bullocks!

Or as the Germans would say.. Quatsch! (we're playing in Germany next.. might as well lol). You're wrong as usual about Tua.

 

You missed the point completely

 

I'm guessing you're referring to dolphin25's response to your post? Because I think I directly addressed hitman8's point about unfamiliarity of a backup/newbie with the offense, and of course his inconsistent use of "sample size".

btw.. I agree with you about the Passer vs. QB difference. Marino is arguably the best pure passer ever, but no way he makes a top 3 QB list of all time. Brady, Montana come first, then you have depending on who you ask guys like Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Young, and now Mahomes (he now has over 3000 attempts) to contend with. Marino's in the top 10 but not top 3 among QBs.

As to who to pick, as long as you're building a team around the QB you pick the best QB period. So yeah, if you have the foresight to see how great Brady and Montana can be, you pick them, not Marino, assuming you think you can provide the other pieces to the puzzle. Also worth pointing out that Marino doesn't really have any excuses for not winning a SB. Brees and Manning won SB with bad defenses.

 

Different eras for Brees, Manning, and Brady. I would take Marino first over all of them easily. With todays rules he would be passing for 6000 yards and 50 TD's every year.

 

I doubt it. TD's per game is the same today as in 1984, and TD% is actually lower (4.3% in 1984 vs. 4.0% today). So TDs are unlikely to increase. Yards per game you can assume about a 10% increase, so maybe 5k yards per year on average is realistic, but not 6k, and that's only during Marino's peak years, not most of his career. For most of his career he was just above average, production-wise.

 

At least they found what he is good at.

 

Marino and Young were contemporaries. Young was never considered on Marino's level during their playing days.

This question is pure opinion and IMO, Marino is the best QB ever. Even Montana agrees with me. I like his distinction between talent and career achievements. Career achievements takes into account supporting cast, injuries, luck, etc.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ins-icon-dan-marino-as-best-qb-in-nfl-history

 

Yep, we failed Marino but it was harder back in the days to build a team then nowadays imo. But we should have gotten him more help for sure!

 

Exactly, you give Marino the team and weapons young had and he would have won multiple super bowls.

 

That's just one example and probably am outlier. I could pull up many examples where the backup cannot perform as well as the starter. Either way you can't use Skyler, Bridgewater, and White's limited playing time as proof of anything.

 

Steve Young is the type of guy whose perceived "greatness" I predict will go up the more analytics influences the game. It's like how the WAR = wins above replacement statistic has influenced baseball. It's a lot more common now for the MVP in baseball to be a player on a team that doesn't make the playoffs (Ohtani, Trout etc.) than it used to be. Wouldn't happen without advanced stats.

Similar thing should happen to Young IMO because he is actually the most efficient passer with 3000+ attempts in NFL history, post-1978 rule change, after adjusting for era (i.e., using z-scores). Young actually came in #1 in passer rating a record 6 times!! Might take some time to see if my prediction comes true, maybe 20 years or so lol. But that's what I think will happen.