You're really going to hang your hat on a 47 year old QB that's clearly in his decline to quarentee durability ? Today's Tua is clearly the choice over today's TB.
What's the difference who QB's the Dolphins? It's clearly the talent of our receiver's that make any QB look impressive. Right ???
The hypocrisy and double standard philosophy of the Tua bashers are comical at best. Certainly not anything that requires a serious thought.
If you really believe that then I have some beach front property in Arizona to sell you. Even with Tua missing the 5 games...even with the 4 games he lost consecutively, Tua STILL led the league in every single significant quarterback stat this season... Better than Mahomes Better than Allen Better than Burrow Better than Herbert and yes, even better that Brady
The only guaranteed durability moving forward is Tua's lack of. Brady is also 45. Not sure where you are getting 47 from.
The stats you are talking about are rate stats. He led the league BECAUSE of his time off. There's no STILL here. BECAUSE he didn't need to play through seasonal bumps and bruises BECAUSE he didn't face the Jets 2x who have the best pass defense in the AFC BECAUSE he has a generational WR, and the best WR duo in the league BECAUSE his opponents were mostly weak
I'm sure you can only hope Tua's lack of durability is guaranteed. Oops, I mean your main concern is Ta's health, of course. I double checked , Brady will be 46 when next season starts.
How many games has Brady not started in the last 3 years vs Tua in the last 3 years? Brady knows how to actually protect himself and stay healthy. Tua doesn't, and he hasn't since high school. Age is irrelevant.
Then I highly recommend you follow Brady to whatever team he signs with. You're welcome. Quick question, how much would it burn your a$$ if Tua won a Super Bowl with the Dolphins. The question isn't "would it burn your a$$", but " how much" would it burn your a$$.
If age is irrelevant then I choose Marino over Brady. I'll call Danny and tell him to dust off that # 13 jersey.
Might be the Dolphins. Hope you get on board! I'd be ecstatic. However, Tua hasn't been able to win in high pressure games in his NFL career. He's choked multiple times now. Superbowl? He hasn't won one playoff game. Set some realistic expectations sir.
Except age is extremely relevant. Fact of the matter is, Tom Brady did not play better than Tua this season. And what you're suggesting is we roll the dice and hope that a QB that is going to be 46 years before the next preseason starts is magically turn back the clock to his prime.
"Ecstatic". LOL Yeah, OK. Watch how easy this is; I hate Brady, I want him no where near the Dolphins. Never liked him, never will. If he's still capable of winning meaningful games, tough, let him do it somewhere else. Now, you try it in regard to Tua. Let it out, you'll feel better.
Byron Leftwich has been the OC for Tampa from 2019. Prior to 2019 that offense was average in points scored per game (ranked 20, 18, 18, 12 in the 4 years before Leftwich). As soon as Leftwich got there they ranked 3, 3, 2 and 25. That first #3 ranking was prior to Brady. Brady won a SB with Leftwich as OC. The OC was not the problem. Something happened in year 4, and based on what we saw the answer is obvious: Brady just isn't what he used to be.
They're harping on the fact that he plays every game. That's true. He doesn't take hits. He's also boring as hell. If you thought Hill was gonna be a waste with Tua, he's going to be a huge waste with Brady. You're gonna see Waddle go back to 125 catches for 1050 yards. Dink and dunk, crying and yelling on the sidelines, trying to slide kick defenders he throws an interception to. He won 8 games in the worst division in football this year. Anyway, Vegas odds lists the Buccaneers or Raiders as the heavy favorites. Followed by the 49ers. The Patriots, Dolphins, Jets, Titans and the Giants believe it or not, are all bunched in as longshots.
Fact of the matter is Tua didn't play a full season, missed extremely difficult opponents, and his numbers are hollow because of it. Also a fact, a 45 year old Brady stayed much healthier than a 24 year old Tua. A 44 year old Brady stayed much healthier than a 23 year old Tua. A 43 year old Brady stayed much healthier than a 22 year old Tua. Why would 46 vs 25 be any different?
Brady was hit the 7th most this season at 55 QB hits. Tua had 25 QB hits by comparison. Go be lazy elsewhere.
It was Arians that they were missing more than Leftwich being a problem. Of course washed Brady forced him out so either way it falls him.
I hate Brady too, but I want to win more than I hate him. Hope you get on board once he's signed here.
His numbers aren't hollow, because if Tua didn't put up the numbers he did, the team wouldn't have been in position to get into the playoffs. Because from 2021 to 2022, Tom Brady went from throwing 43 TDs/12 Ints on 7.4 Y/A average to 25 TDs/9 Ints on 6.4 Y/A.
I meant hits that would lead to injuries, since I was talking about his durability. Play dumb somewhere else. When Brady throws the ball at the foot of a running back and then cowers into the fetal position before the defender hits him hard counts as a QB hit.
Depends. Either I'll get on board or spew some nonsense like I hope he retires for health reasons. All the while I'll secretly despise the bastard.
Way to backtrack. Tua gets hit harder. His type of hits are the ones that lead to injuries. Totally. LOL. Don't ever change. It's too enjoyable.
I clearly said your point is Brady is more durable and available than Tua would probably be and agreed with it.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sp...e-free-agent-quarterback-from-buccaneers/amp/ Raiders +250 Buccaneers +300 Jets +400 49ers +500 Titans +700 Patriots +900 Dolphins +1000 Colts +1100 Ravens +1200
It's not hollow if you are saying Tua helped us win. It is hollow when you start to compare Tua's numbers to other QBs that played a full season, had more difficult opponents, and played through bumps and bruises. Apples to oranges.
According to NFL.com, the top two pass defenses in the NFL are The Bengals and Bills. He only missed the top pass defense once and played extremely well against the second best defense twice.
What is NFL.com basing that on? Bengals were actually the only team possibly better. Jets were #2 in passer rating against(80.5 - Bengals only better by 0.4) and #3 in passing yards allowed a game (Bengals 23rd). Tua also didn't survive the Bengals game, if he did, again his numbers would be worse. Look at what he was doing in that game, he had a 52.7 rating before getting knocked out. Also, if you breakdown the Bills pass defense, they were not strong against WRs, which is obviously the Dolphins strength and mode to attack:
One can estimate what Tua's rating would be based on opponent passer rating. See the figure attached for Tua's passer ratings (TPR) vs. opponent passer rating allowed (OPR). The best fitting line is TPR = -163.5 + 3.1*OPR. Given that the average number of passing attempt per game is 33.3 in 2022, you can calculate a weighted average for Tua's entire season by using his actual passer rating over 400 attempts and predicted passer rating for each game weighted by attempts (with 33.3/2 passing attempts for that Cinci game), and you get an estimated 100.5 rating for Tua had he started all games. That's still above 1 standard deviation above the mean (i.e., above average SB winning QB level) and it would be #7 in terms of rankings this year. So sure Tua's rating would be expected to be less had he started all games, but it's still very high.
What was the estimated rating against SF, GB, LAC, BUF? You likely just don't have a large enough model. Use the last 3 seasons for a larger body of work.
SF, GB, LAC, BUF = 92.87, 109.3, 110.23, 91.01. Compared to actual ratings (2x Buffalo included) the predicted ratings are on average 8.16 passer rating points above actual, with the first 3 Tua actually doing a lot worse than predicted while against Buffalo he did much better. Of course, that over-prediction is balanced out by the other games. And you wouldn't use 3 seasons with Tua because this year was statistically significant, i.e., his ratings can't be explained by normal variation alone from years 1-2. So predictions for year 3 are probably best done by what I did there or something similar. 100.5 is about right intuitively too. I mean, unless he completely chokes all games it's not affecting the overall rating that much, but it should affect it a little downwards.
