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Tua is not the Problem

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Nov 6, 2021.

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  1. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Here's the thing: He was badly hurt last year and when he returned, he played much better. He also had better pocket awareness and didn't trust his OL as much as before. That's why he relied on all of the short passes and quick reads. This season, he was hurt and returned even stronger. The most encouraging thing about the state of the team right now is that the OL seems to be playing much better and he's not having to move the pocket and throw 7-yard passes to stay safe. We can't keep him from taking sacks, but I believe they'll be fewer and farther in between. His chances of being seriously injured will never be non-existent, but I don't think it's inevitable that he will.
     
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  2. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  3. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  4. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    And... the classic doh take of all time:

     
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  5. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt
    Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (often abbreviated as ANY/A) is a passing statistic that incorporates passing yardage, sacks, touchdowns, and interceptions. ANY/A is easy to calculate, easy to understand, and has a strong correlation with points scored. Like any passing metric, it is better used as a general measure of team or group passing effectiveness than as an individual statistic, as it does not control for quality of receivers, weather, offensive line, scheme, etc. It also does not incorporate quarterback rushing yards. Like any per-play statistic, it can be inflated by long gains; success rate can paint a clearer picture of an offense’s consistency.

     
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  6. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Getting ahead of the Tua is succeeding because of his receivers.

    From playerprofiler.com
    Average yards of separation at time of catch.
    Tyreek Hill
    2022 - 1.89 (#36)
    2021 - 1.60 (#35)
    2020 - 1.82 (#30)

    Jaylen Waddle
    2022 1.91 (#33)
    2021 1.86 (#13)

    Mike Gesicki
    2022 - 1.53 (#23)
    2021 - 1.58 (#21)

    Devante Parker
    2022 - 1.07 (#94)
    2021 - 1.21 (#94)

    So what we’re seeing is that the main Dolphins receivers are not ‘more open’ than they were last year. Hill being slightly more open than he was with Pat Mahomes throwing the ball, and Devante Parker slightly less open, which could be attributable to Tua throwing with better anticipation and throwing his guys open more often.

    Also while Hill and Waddle are both rated in the top 1/3 of openness, it isn’t like they are the most open receivers in all of football, not even close.

    What is happening is that the offense is competently designed and engineered to the strengths of the players in it.
     
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  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Be careful interpreting yards of separation. There's a known negative correlation between yards of separation and receiving yards as well as between yards of separation and average depth of target. That is, the higher the yards of separation, the fewer receiving yards on average. The higher the yards of separation, the lower the average depth of target.

    Yards of separation is thought to decrease for longer passes because the DB has more time to close the distance. People have also pointed out that the better the WR the more the defense pays attention to them, which reduces yards of separation for better WRs. So the reason yards of separation may be so similar year-to-year for some WRs may be because of average depth of target and how good/bad they are as receivers. It's really difficult to use yards of separation to evaluate WR performance because of that.

    It's interesting. For the passing offense and for the QB it's efficiency stats that matter. However, for WRs it's both efficiency and volume stats that matter because the better the WR the more they're utilized (note this doesn't work with starting QBs). So looking at overall receiving yards and TDs in addition to Y/A, Y/G and TD% is more informative than some of these NextGenStats like yards of separation. Of course Hill is killing it with receiving yards. However, he's not doing as well with TDs. So it's a bit of a mixed bag there. But clearly Tua is getting more out of Hill in some key stats than even Mahomes did, which is impressive.
     
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  8. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I was looking at yards of separation purely in relation to the Alabama Argument that Tua is doing well because his receivers are more open than normal receivers. A first pass of the numbers suggest that Hill and Waddle are good at getting separation but aren’t super elite. Also the receivers who have changed teams had marginally better “openness” with Tua than with other QBs, so it isn’t McDaniel’s scheme magically getting receivers more open.

    I really would like to find out yards of separation at time of throw compared to time of catch. That would help diagnose if Tua is throwing people open, or if DBs are shutting down windows quickly because of his noodle arm (tm).
     
  9. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    Yards of separation at time of catch is not a relevant stat. More important is separation at the time of the throw. And I don't really need stats to tell me that, I can see from watching the game that Hill and Waddle have miles of separation at the time of the throw, but not much at the time of the catch since Tua is regularly underthrowing and causing them to slow down, Which allows defenders to close the distance at the time of the catch.

    It's still working out though because defenders usually can't close enough to break up the pass.
     
  10. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    "Regularly under throwing"
     
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  11. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Or at least, whether a "strong" arm is necessary for a QB to be considered effective, let alone superior. Most of us found him effective last season when he was throwing short passes. This year, his play is objectively superior. If his arm is weak, then requiring a strong arm to be considered a top-tier passer is just basis for making disingenuous arguments. Would having a cannon be fantastic for a franchise QB? Of course; it's one more weapon. Is it necessary, though? I always argued to the contrary.
     
  12. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This is not correct. Tua is throwing with anticipation and often before the WR makes their break. They aren’t just running 9 routes. He is consistently manipulating coverage with his head and body position. Just watch some of the film break downs of what he is doing. Always short throwing to wide open WRs is a pretty bad analysis. There are lot of people breaking down his game on you tube.
     
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  13. Hank1

    Hank1 New Member

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    ... and yet, he leads the league in yards per attempt.

    ... while the beloved Justin Herbert is 26th.
     
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  14. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Another crew member shows how welcoming they are. LoL
     
  15. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if hitman has the same tape.
     
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  16. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    These are examples of well designed plays where Tua has to throw into spots in zone coverage. Which he does a great job of looking defenders off and hitting his spots with good anticipation and accuracy.

    The recievers are open though, and the holes in the defense are there. It's just good play design and timing between QB and reciever to find the holes and hit the right spots at the right time.

    Tua is great at this no doubt. When I say he regularly underthrows recievers, it's on the deeper routes and off script throws where his lack of arm strength comes into play.

    But this is all possible mostly because of having two amazing weapons like Hill and Waddle who are un coverable, and the plays and offense being designed to fit Tua's strengths.

    Defenses are afraid to play man against hill and waddle, but they are also getting gashed in the zone, so it's damned if you do, damned if you don't.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2022
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  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    That is simply not true! If you go back and look at a lot of Tua’s deep passes, you’ll see that Tyreek particularly as well as Waddle haven’t even passed the defender by the time Tua is already throwing the ball. The separation happens while the ball is already in the air.
     
  18. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :oldtoker:
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The exact same holes are in every zone defense. Every team has 11 defenders and is dropping somewhere between 5 and 8 defenders into coverage on any given play. Every team has the same opportunity to find holes in a zone defense. The differences with the Dolphins are:

    1. Play design seems to be putting defenders in conflict on a more regular basis.
    2. Tua is moving or holding defenders with his eyes.
    3. Tua is throwing with anticipation so the defenders cannot close on the ball.
    4. The receivers are running disciplined routes, especially routes that are designed to affect zone defenders and are not the intended targets of the pass.
    5. Tua and the receivers are on the same page.
    6. Tua is not getting fooled by disguised coverages.
     
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  20. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  21. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    You might want to add Waddle and Hill drawing attention from each other. The only real surprise for me is that Gesicki and WR3/WR4 aren't taking advantage of the coverages. Unless they are and Tua seldom has to move past his first or second read. I'd love to see Wilson/Sherfield get opportunities and to eventually get Ezukanma on the field.
     
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  22. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    They kind of are. However defenses haven't been able to take away WR1 or WR2 enough for it to matter.
     
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  23. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Or they are the ones clearing out for Waddle and Cheetah on the inside or dragging a defender to a specific position.
     
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  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Let me guess, you’re quoting something Hitman wrote? He’s such a moron. He couldn’t be more wrong and I’m sure he knows that this is 100% wrong. Every real expert breaking down Tua’s throws are saying the exact opposite… but he knows, right? He knows because “he’s watching the games”, amiright? Has he started lying about how he watched the all 22 also?

    The guy is a troll. Stop responding to him and he’ll go back to the Jets/Bills/Pats forum. He’s NOT a Dolphins fan.
     
  25. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I didnt talk **** first like you did, didn't think you were that type, guess I was wrong..

    yup, talk **** about a place you don't know that I respect, you'll get some **** back
     
  26. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    It was my experience with it. It's not yours because you're part of the crew. If you consider "that the format sucks and its not welcoming" talking **** then you don't know what talking **** is. Your reactions are what I saw happening and kinda proves my point. I'm feeling the "Lighten Up Francis" vibe from Sgt. Hulka about now. LoL. Sorry if I hit a nerve by throwing an egg at your clubhouse. I'll send someone over later to clean of the mess.
     
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  27. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    c-brad this is for you..

    https://deadspin.com/tua-tagovailoa-is-the-real-deal-1849766672/amp

    One good season does not guarantee future NFL success.

    A much better determinator would be his analytics, and by golly, Tua’s advanced stats don’t just jump off the page, they grab you by the ears and scream profanities at you until you can’t deny Tua’s greatness anymore.

    Let’s start with Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a percentage measurement of a quarterback’s efficiency over an average quarterback. Tua’s is insane. He leads the league in that category. The second-highest mark belongs to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. His DVOA checks in at 25.2 percent. Third, is San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo — probably didn’t expect him; I’ll touch more on his presence here in a moment — with 25.1 percent. Fourth is Philly’s Jalen Hurts at 19.9 percent. With those figures in mind, what could you possibly assume Tagovailoa’s figure is, hmm? Maybe high-20s, low-30s perhaps? Maybe he blows everyone out of the water and hits us with a 40 percent DVOA. That would be something, right? Well, Tua’s DVOA currently sits at 51 percent, more than double Mahomes’ figure.

    ...

    let’s move to Yards Above Replacement (YAR). Think of this statistic like WAR in baseball, a cumulative figure that attempts to crunch a player’s value into a singular number, or in this case, yardage total. It’s a cumulative stat meaning that the more pass attempts a player has, the more likely they are to have a higher figure. Tua is second in the NFL with 888 YAR, four fewer than the league leader Mahomes (892). Tua has missed 2.5 games.

    ...

    when we look at Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), which takes into account the quality of defense that each quarterback has played against. In that statistic, which is also cumulative, Tagovailoa leads the NFL, and it’s not all that close. His DYAR figure (909) is 48 points higher than Mahomes’ (861). The only quarterbacks to have a higher DYAR through nine games than Tua this year are 2004 Peyton Manning (MVP), 2006 Peyton Manning (third in MVP voting), and 2007 Tom Brady (MVP). That’s elite company, and once again, Tua has missed 2.5 games. I just want to reiterate that.

    Even in regard to more traditional stats, Tua stands high above his competition. He’s first in the NFL in yards per attempt, first in average net yards per attempt, first in touchdown percentage, and first in QBR (purely a measurement of a quarterback’s play; Garoppolo ranks 23rd in that category by the way, just in case you weren’t convinced that McDaniel was covering Tua’s flaws). Those are numbers you can’t ignore, and if Tua hadn’t missed time with a concussion, he’d undoubtedly be the MVP frontrunner in my eyes.

    Courtesy and posted By Cooch.
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah that DVOA/DYAR stuff by Football Outsiders is like ESPN's QBR (which you reference in the 2nd to last paragraph) in that their goal is to isolate the contribution of individual players (note the reference in the parenthesis about ESPN's QBR being "purely" a measurement of a QB's play). Well.. these methods are all black box. QBR has like 10,000 lines of code 99% of which no one outside of the few who created it know what it's doing (they include stuff like "clutch" performance etc.) while Football Outsiders has what they call "success points" which they assign based on subjective criteria but pass off as objective (i.e., they use subjectively determined parameters to estimate numbers they pass off as objective measures).

    It's theoretically possible to estimate the contribution of a single individual in a team sport, but only if you have random (or near random) combinations of players each game with massive sample size (probably more than the entire history of NFL if you wanted to do it right). In practice we can't do this for the NFL, and especially not for QBs since they tend to play for only one or a small number of teams. The reason these methods are black box is because they know they'll be criticized for inserting all kinds of subjective assumptions they don't want people to know about. So yes I'm familiar with them. I don't respect them though.

    Better to either go with simple passing efficiency stats like passer rating or ANYA — none of which are "purely" a measurement of QB play obviously (no need to act like it like ESPN does) — or go with EPA per play. EPA per play is fairly close to ESPN's QBR if that helps, but at least it's transparent and based on sound statistical principles (historical probabilities of scoring points on the drive based on down, distance and game situation).
     
  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yup whatever you just said :)
     
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  30. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    According to FanDuel, Tua has the 4th best odds to win MVP behind Mahomes, Hurts and Allen.
     
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  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Not intending to belittle your post…I’ve been a Tua supporter since he got the nid last season and saw the potential, but this DVOA? I swear, it seems like every time you turn around, there’s a new type of stat.

    Kinda reminds me of Tom Selleck in “Mr Baseball”…

    “I led this team in 9th inning doubles during the month of August”

    That’s a funny line because of what people do keep track of in sports stats. I don’t follow stats like Brad does but I’ve never heard of this stat and to me it just seems like yet another figure for bean counters to track for justification.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Their motivation is money nothing else. Stuff like DVOA doesn't get published in respected scientific journals because it would never pass peer review. However, Football Outsiders (who created DVOA) has a nice subscription service for "stats" that supposedly tell you far more than we're capable of inferring at the moment from the data. ESPN's QBR is also for marketing — we (ESPN) have developed this great tool that can isolate QB ability and everyone else should pay attention to our proprietary algorithm blah blah blah.

    Money dude.. it's money. It's not about bean counting per se. And each time people quote these "stats" they're just playing into the hands of those who make money from them.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I mean, DVOA has been around for quite awhile
    Lol
     
  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    DVOA presents itself as being scientifically rigorous. As the oldest of the ‘alternative statistics’ site for football they’ve got credibility due to surviving a long time, even if that credibility isn’t properly earned.. It isn’t complete trash because their ratings generally align with conventional stats and they make a shed ton of content about why when DVOoA and real statistics diverge about why DVOA is superior. The thing is if stats like EPA, EPA/play, CPOE, win probability added and so on existed at the time their site was created no one would bother visiting them.

    They’re building brand awareness and a facade of credibility. If they genuinely had built something superior to standard stats in terms of predictive power then either they”d publish it in a journal, or they’d keep quiet and skin Las Vegas alive.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's not true. EPA was introduced in 1970, win probability in the early 1990's, and throughout the early 2000's I remember sites posting EPA and EPA/play. But then corporate got involved thinking analytics was potentially big business (I mean.. they're right). Football Outsiders partnered with a bunch of outlets early on and has been exclusively with ESPN since 2008. ESPN got into the game themselves in 2011 with their QBR. So EPA existed well before these corporate guys made things worse. It's marketing that led to this.
     
  36. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I didn’t realise has EPA existed for so long. There is however a difference between ‘a thing exists’ and a ‘a thing exists in an accessible and useable form’. Using 1970s technology it would probably take until 6 months after the season had finished to calculate EPA/play. My recollection is that DVOA was established on the scene before EPA was widely available on the internet, however that may be just a case of me not seeing the EPA data.

    I am sure that the crew who created DVOA knew about EPA, but chose not to use it because they couldn’t make proprietary content using public domain formulas.
     
  37. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    May be but, I look at simple BASIC stats which tell ME more…and mostly all I need to assess a quarterback…

    Attempts, completions, percentage completion, yards per completion, TDs and INTs. Those are pretty much all I look at and tell ME whether or not a quarterback is good and whether or not he’s being used TOO much.

    Ya’ll know me…I like balance in my offense.
     
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  38. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Oh yeah, we generally agree on how to judge a QB. You may put more weight on wins than I do, but no biggie.

    I agree, all these advanced stats are great, but I think they're trying to use them to do things that stats can't do. Like trying to predict. Football isn't an equation. Haha
     
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  39. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    We’ll stats are a great tool but…it’s just a tool nonetheless.

    Bottom line, the ultimate stat that only counts is wins and losses :wink2:
     
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  40. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I agree. I just don't attribute them always wholly to the QB. Lol
     
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