1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Next Four Games . . .

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DolPhinPhan7, Oct 24, 2022.

  1. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

    756
    443
    63
    Apr 26, 2012
    . . . Are ALLL must win if we hope to make the playoffs.

    Lions,
    Bears,
    Oranges,
    Texans.

    This defence has been having to carry this team even with their stats not being so great. Last night they finally strung together some turnovers but their injury problems have been pretty severe. They got almost no pass rush most of the game and were saved by punching bag Noah Iggy at the end of the game.

    They're keeping the Phins in every game with the struggles at QB continuing.

    The Offence better figure it out next month. They play some of the worst QBs in the league. There's no expectation any of these teams can score more than 20 points against this Dolphins team if they aren't giving the ball up.

    After this stretch they play the Niners, Chargers and Packers as well as their remaining three Division games.

    3-3 in that final stretch would be considered a good result. The Packers don't look great right now, but that game will likely be freezing on Christmas Day.

    So this team could still finish with 11 or 12 wins if they just play to expectation. The offence has to figure things out however.
     
    Unlucky 13 and KeyFin like this.
  2. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,818
    4,664
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Dolphins play the Packers in Miami.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  3. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

    756
    443
    63
    Apr 26, 2012
    Oh, NM then. Still a game they should win.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  4. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    Especially with how the Packers have looked so far.
     
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I'm not in a panic over the offense at the moment. If Tua would have delivered with his typical accuracy yesterday, I think we would have won by 3-4 TD's. Did we even punt in the 1st half? Maybe once? This offense is extremely potent with Salty Tua at the helm....yesterday we just got regular Tua though.

    I feel like he will turn this around quickly since that's always been the best part of his game.
     
    Pauly and jdallen1222 like this.
  6. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Yesterday was a must win, and the next four all are as well. Absolutely agree. And not lose anyone else important to a major injury. Beat four teams that the Fins should absolutely be better than, and we get to 8-3. And at that point, we should have a really good shot at holding the #5 seed in the AFC, which is vital, because that would mean that we get to go on the road to face the AFC South champion in the first round instead of whoever wins the North, Buffalo or KC.

    Get to 8-3 and stay healthy-ish, and then we can almost certainly get into the playoffs by going 3-3 over the last six, and maybe even 2-4.
     
    Fishhead, dolphin25 and KeyFin like this.
  7. RGF

    RGF THE FINSTER Club Member

    6,066
    3,436
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    NY
    Mr. Clean would like to have a word with you.
     
  8. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

    1,528
    1,136
    113
    Mar 7, 2014
    Ontario, Canada
    The next 4 opponents on the schedule are noticeably bad… this is true.

    But I’m not sure what you are seeing from the Packers, 49ers, Chargers, Jets or Patriots that makes you think they are particularly good?
    Competitive ? Sure. But If we play well and execute in those games we will likely win.

    At Buffalo is a different story.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  9. MonstBlitz

    MonstBlitz Nobody's Fart Catcher

    21,176
    10,130
    113
    Jan 14, 2008
    Hornell, NY
    Just like the stock market - present performance is no guarantee of future results. We fans are slow to learn this, and we constantly make projections based on snapshot information. Jets looked terrible to start the season. Look at them now. Miami was near the top of the power rankings going into week 4. Key injuries and a 3 game slide. Things change so much from week to week, I could see these next 4 teams playing competitive and stealing a couple wins. I could see the rest of the schedule that looks tough now being easier than we thought.

    I'm not saying it's wrong to make projections, that's half the fun. It just seems like we're often so wrong about them, and the rapidly evolving state of every NFL team mixed with parity, any given Sunday and all that jazz is the reason why.
     
    resnor, Springveldt, Hooligan and 2 others like this.
  10. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

    1,528
    1,136
    113
    Mar 7, 2014
    Ontario, Canada
    It’s a weird year. Usually there are about 10 good teams in the league.
    Teams that demand respect and especially on the road…. you wouldn’t feel good about your chances.

    This year there are 3 good teams.(Bills, Chiefs and Eagles)

    Teams that were supposed to be good (Bucs, Rams, GB, LAC and Broncos) look awful.
    And teams that are actually winning like the Jets, Giants and Vikings are feared by nobody.

    I could see the Bengals joining the ranks as a good team eventually this season… but tough to make a case for anyone else.
     
    resnor likes this.
  11. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    The Pats with Zappe look like a totally different team.
     
    Pennington's Limp Arm likes this.
  12. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

    1,528
    1,136
    113
    Mar 7, 2014
    Ontario, Canada
    Looked alright against Detroit and Cleveland. They were running the ball down those teams throats and he was playing with the lead.
    Jones is back now
     
  13. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

    756
    443
    63
    Apr 26, 2012
    We can look back at the Bengals game as a Scheduled L, even so Bridgewater had us in position to take the lead in the fourth before throwing an INT.

    The Jets game was tough because Bridgewater was taken out on the first drive and we had to put in a rookie. Even so Sanders had a FG to take the lead in the fourth, the game collapsed after missing that kick.

    The Vikings game was another game where we had something going, Cousins couldn't move the ball early in the game, Thompson looked decent and AGIN!!! QB injury and a QB had to be put in who wasn't QB1 during practice.

    I would suggest last nights game was most troubling because Tua and the Offence was so dominant early and suddenly it stopped. They couldn't even get a First down to kill the clock after the Jevon Holland INT.

    So I can think of the 3 Ls as aberrations to what this team should be. But these next four games will make us know for sure.
     
    KeyFin and dolphin25 like this.
  14. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    I’m not worried so much about the offense imho. Tua was pretty good first half. He hasn’t played in a while and maybe he got some jitters I dunno. It we were running the ball pretty damn well.

    Im more worried about the lack of a defense. We constantly give up big yardages on short passes. We can’t generate any real pressure on the opposing qb’s and we seem to need an ER room for our secondary every week.

    The game against the Steelers should have never come down to having to have a Miracle play to win. We were going to lose that game without that one awsomen play and you all felt it coming don’t lie!

    also McDaniel has to learn a little more about when to be a gambler. He 100% should have taken the 3 points instead of going for 3-4 yards at that point in the game.

    we’re going to experience some ups and downs but I think we can win 3 out of the next 4 but I’m starting to think we are going to miss out on the playoffs by 1-2 games.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Correction- before Tua went down, we were top-3 in the power rankings. And we also beat the Bills. I believe that we are the 4th good team and others will have fits once we get this offense back into gear. With the softer schedule coming up, I'm not sure we lose a game for quite a while and it's a great time to start getting into playoff form.
     
  16. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    I think that no matter what happens, we aren't going to go into Buffalo, KC, CIN, or Baltimore in the WC round and win unless the other team is really beaten up. It just is what it is. It doesn't matter if we're the third best team on paper in the AFC or the 7th best, or if we could win the game if it were played at home. Unfortunately, WC teams don't get home playoff games anymore, and we're in the same division as the Bills.

    So we just need to bank as many wins as possible while the schedule is light, and try our best to earn that 5 seed so that we get to play the AFC South champ. Right now, that's the end game IMO. It would be in our favor for the Bengals to win the North because we don't own the tiebreaker against them, but we do vs the Ravens.

    And then, if we were table to beat IND or TEN in the first round, hope that whoever else makes it as the WC - LA, BAL are the main candidates - would be able to knock off their opponent in the first round too.
     
    resnor and Hooligan like this.
  17. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    Maybe, but why didn't the run the ball against the other teams? He looked very good against the Packers in Green Bay as well.
     
  18. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Don't believe in that. I understand where you're coming from but Im a Phillies fan also (live in PA now) and we were the last seed in the playoffs and we are now in the World Series so anything is possible. We have time still but we need to be hot in the last month and get into the playoffs.

    But I agree that we already have a hard time getting in the Playoffs as we probably won't win the division and the wildcard will probably be very close
     
  19. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Baseball is different though. And even then, even if other teams can win in bad conditions on the road in the NFL, the Dolphins can't. Five decades of evidence have proven that.

    We need warm weather or an indoor stadium. It's just reality. A 14-3 Dolphins wild card team would likely lose to a 10-7 cold weather division champion.
     
    resnor likes this.
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    We've beaten strong teams away in cold weather. Just recently, in 2019 we beat Brady and the NE Patriots who were 12-3 at the time in Foxboro, late December and outdoors in 43 degrees weather. Patriots opened as 16 point favorites in that one.

    Saying the Dolphins "can't" win in cold weather is too strong a statement. It's unlikely yes, but if we make the playoffs as a WC there is some small non-zero chance we win the SB. If the 2007 Giants who were 14th and 17th in points scored/allowed can win the SB playing on the road 4 times then any WC team has some small non-zero chance of winning the SB.
     
    dolphin25, KeyFin and Pauly like this.
  21. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Nothing is impossible, but its harder for Miami than almost any other NFL team.

    Would you accept that statement as being true?
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Yeah based on historical performance, we've done poorly in cold weather, and we've done poorly in the playoffs away from home.
     
  23. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    And it only gets harder the further they push the playoffs into January.

    Back when the season was 14 games long, the conference championships were around Christmas. Even after they switched the 16 games, the regular season ended in mid December the last time that the Fins made the Super Bowl in 84, and the AFC CG was played on January 6.

    Now, the regular season ends January 8, and the AFC CG is at the end of January. That's a huge difference when you're talking about going to places like Buffalo, Boston, Pittsburgh, Denver, etc. It even makes areas like Nashville a lot colder. In Buffalo, its often about 50 degrees in mid December, but more than 20 degrees colder a month later.

    So if the Fins can't win their own division, we probably need to make the playoffs in years where the other good teams in the AFC are in warmer climates or indoors. The odds are much, much better of winning on the road then.
     
  24. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007

    I’m trying to be positive for once lol let me have this one
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  25. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    what is our record in cold weather?
     
  26. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    Suddenly the Bears look good.
     
  27. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,818
    4,664
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    I don't think the Patriots or Bears are any good.
     
  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    We've lost every outdoor road playoff game from 1974-present, the last six in colder situations.

    5-14 @ Buffalo in December and January, since the advent of the 16-game schedule. Most of the wins in years where the Bills won 5 or fewer games and Miami had a winning team.

    3-16 @ New England in those same situations.
     
    resnor and dolphin25 like this.
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Up to 2017 it was 25-31-1 in games where the temperature was 40 degrees or less. So not too bad, but couple that with home team advantage in the playoffs (55-60% generally) and you get a bad combination. As Unlucky 13 pointed out, we've been unlucky in those conditions come playoff time.

    That's bound to change though. Sample size is really small there.
     
    resnor and KeyFin like this.
  30. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Weird season Arron Rodger and Brady look bad, jets look good, NE is bottoms dweller
     
    dolphin25, KeyFin and resnor like this.
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    One game is different than a series.
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Just shows how good Rodgers and Brady have been historically. They're 8th and 9th in passer rating while "looking bad" (not that I'm disagreeing). Bad for Rodgers is ~6 passer rating points above average, and ~4 for Brady. Both need to retire soon though.

    The new generation is already taking over. Mahomes is the one guaranteed elite, Allen is pushing for it (needs consistency over many seasons). We'll see about Watson's ability to continue elite play when he comes back. And despite Burrow starting off with a 4 INT game this season he is once again playing at elite levels with an overall 102.7 rating so far (#5 ranking wise and probably going higher).

    Jets I think aren't that strong. They just started off well. NE post-Brady is an average team.
     
    resnor likes this.
  33. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    Burrow was all about rust, he had like zero pre season coming off surgery.
     
    resnor and KeyFin like this.
  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    I'm really hoping that the brutally ugly September that we just had convinces teams to go back to playing more guys in the Preseason. It was a horrible month of football to watch.
     
    resnor and KeyFin like this.
  35. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    IMO, Burrow and Mahomes are a cut above the rest. Tier 2 is pretty crowded, but those two are amazing.


    Allen is probably on Tier 1, but I can’t stand him so, tough crap.
     
    dolphin25 and KeyFin like this.
  36. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

    2,068
    1,731
    113
    Sep 29, 2016
    Agree 100%. Cutting preseason because of an extra regular season game was not a good idea.
     
    Unlucky 13 likes this.
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I agree with all points. Not sure if Allen is a clear tier 1 or not, but he's certainly on the fringe with a few more solid years.
     
  38. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Going to three games is fine. But the bye week shoved in there is completely unnecessary. And now teams aren't even playing their starters in any of them. And no one is ready to actually play football once the regular season starts.
     
    resnor likes this.
  39. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,881
    4,834
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    You guys not putting Allen as a clear top 3 QB (at worst) in this league are nuts. The only guy I would consider above him is Mahomes and even that changes per game. Sucks that we went from Brady to him but that's life. He's phenomenal.

    The one who has the most to prove (along with Tua) is Herbert. People crowned him an elite QB already but dude has not reached that Mahomes level. The physical gifts are obvious and immense, but he needs to start leading them to the playoffs and stop making those 4th quarter INTs.

    With the longer seasons it's extremely doubtful. Coaches are using it for depth eval, not to get starters ready. I think it more likely we see the joint practices/scrimmages televised than returning to starters playing anything significant during preseason.
     
    resnor likes this.
  40. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,926
    63,003
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Well they need to figure something out, because the quality of play all around flat out sucked. September is hugely important to set the tone for the entire season. You see teams who are basically pulling the plug on the year because their offense was flat out of the gate.
     
    resnor likes this.

Share This Page