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My "Way too Early" 2022 Season Preview

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Jul 23, 2022.

  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    As a Miami Dolphins fan, I am tired of our team "winning the offseason" by making several splash moves, fixing the line with older has-beens, etc. We've done that too many times to count and every time this team goes on a spending spree, we disappoint the following season.

    So why would 2022 be any different? That's easy- 19 wins the past two seasons with Tua as the starter. 19 wins with the worst offensive line in the entire league. 19 wins with a group of castaways and undrafted players who had no business making our roster. 19 wins while we pursued DeShaun Watson, Tom Brady, and too many other quarterbacks to list. That's 19 wins with a head coach who seemed to care nothing about the offensive side of the ball.

    I'm not going to say anything about Flores here other than he was the key to developing one of the most elite defenses that we've had in some time. Up and down the roster, we have tons of talent that excels at taking control of the game's tempo and forcing dumb turnovers. Those 19 wins- that was on the back of a championship defense for the 2nd half of last season.

    However, while we might not talk about Flores, we do need to discuss why our defense was below average for the first 8 weeks last year before somehow flipping a switch and reverting back to 2020 form. I will point out that both Jones and Howard were banged up early on, and a few blowout losses meant we couldn't run cover-zero very much of the game. Teams just took the lead and pounded the ball on us, made our secondary a non-issue and cruised to easy victories.

    That's the story of the past two seasons folks- if we take the lead and force the other team to pass, it gets ugly in a hurry as we laugh and celebrate. If we play from behind, we get exposed and almost never win. We're literally two different teams on D based on what the offense does.

    This season, it appears that all eyes will be on Tua...but I think McDaniel will do everything in his power to keep that from happening. To use our elite passing defense to maximum potential, we need to (1) keep the D fresh by controlling the clock and (2) keep the lead so other teams are forced to pass. McDaniel has shown countless signs of accomplishing those two goals through smash mouth football- running the pigskin right up the gut and challenging our opponent to stop it.

    That's how the early season will start out....RPO on 1st down, RPO on 2nd down, and probably RPO on 3rd down as well. It will either be a handoff off guard or a quick slant to Waddle/Hill, and we're going to find a very comfortable rhythm moving the chains and gobbling up short yards 5 to 10 at a time. Tua can do that in his sleep and make smart decisions every single time.

    It's funny, this offseason we've heard a lot about "Alabama Tua" and how easy he made things look with that all-star team. We've heard some say that he "can't throw long" or he can't "throw receivers open", and that's 100% true...he couldn't do that running the RPO with no run game and no pass protection. That's literally the R and the P....leaving him with no real option other than getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible.

    That's who we need- the Alabama Tua who looks like he doesn't really do anything special, but his team keeps winning by 30+ anyway.

    This season, I believe Tua will have more time to throw- partially from scheme/simplified blocking and partially from having a run game. Personally, I'd love to have Alabama Tua back because that means he's not working overly hard to move the football and he's not running for his life; he's just reading the field and taking the easy yards. That's what a legitimate run game gets you in this type of offense and I'm fully on board with McDaniels so far...he has the vision and it's the right one for this team.

    What do I expect for the season? We start out with a brutal stretch of games- Pats, Ravens, Bills, Bengals....we'll be lucky to come out of that 2-2. I have a feeling that we destroy the Pats in week one and the Ravens in week 2, but I just don't think we'll be ready for the Bills in time. Same for the Bengals and Burrow...that's going to be a great game and possibly an AFC Championship preview in the next few seasons.

    Our schedule softens though and I think we sweep the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns and Texans. Seriously, I think we could be 9-2 if everything clicks like it should this season. Then we have the 49ers, Chargers, Bills and Packers...there's another stretch that we may be hoping for 2-2. But we'll sweep the Pats and Jets to end the season with a potential 13-4 record.

    Again though, the more I think this through, the more I believe that it's on just about everyone on that offense EXCEPT FOR TUA. He will get the ball out quick and accurately, and he'll deliver on deeper shots when the plays are allowed to develop. But he can't block, he can't break tackles at RB, and he certainly can't catch the football. His biggest weakness is the players in front of him- if the line does their jobs, I truly believe that this is a 13-win team this season.

    Why? Let's finally talk about the defense and their potential. If Miami is stringing together long drives off mostly short throws and runs, we're going to be eating clock like crazy and forcing other teams to become aggressive. I truly believe we have the best secondary in the league and I don't think it's even close- we just haven't been able to manage the clock these past two seasons and play to our strengths. In fact, I don't think we've actually seen this defense's best stretch of games yes, I honestly believe that those are still ahead of us.

    To see our elite D at the top of their game, we just need to do one thing- play smash mouth football. Run it 25 times a game. Hit those short slants and let our speed control the field. Tua doesn't have to challenge vertical and show how much stronger his arm is....that's the strategy when you're down by 17 in the 3rd. That's not our game- never has been, but that's all we've had when the offense can't take a 4-step drop back without someone in the QB's face.

    This season, we're going to see the offense come together and be able to move the football with little effort. It's going to look like we have Alabama Tua back in the huddle, and I feel it in my bones that we're going to lead most games for four straight quarters. Not off huge throws and highlight plays, but smart, consistent football in controlling the time of possession and the line of scrimmage.

    13 wins folks, I truly believe that's "our floor" this season. Maybe we don't "win it all" but this will be Miami's year because of five words- smash mouth football & elite D.
     
  2. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    I can get to 12-5 on the season, but either way a nice leap forward for the team. In the AFC 12 wins should be enough for the #1 seed; it will be tough for even the best teams to win more games than that.
     
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  3. firedan

    firedan Well-Known Member

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    My enthusiasm is a bit more tempered but I've been wrong before. With a new coach I have to see what he's all about.I do like that he likes to use the running game but wonder how the line will perform.
     
  4. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    I’m a bit more wait and see on whether the run game in particular and the offense generally perform as advertised. I also am a little wary about the D, in case there is some form of split between the O and the D because the HC devotes too much time to their favored side of the ball.

    What I really want to see is an O that can consistently move the chains and a D that prevents the opposition from moving the chains. Big splash plays are nice and all and you can’t win without making splash plays, but to keep yourself in a position where the splash play makes a difference you need consistency. For example Adam Gase’s teams were really good at making splash plays but were so bad in between that we got blown out of any game where didn’t make splash plays early.
     
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  5. EastcoastEZ

    EastcoastEZ Member

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    I have a hard time seeing 12-5 because, while we can beat the Bills I still think the most likely scenario is losing both to Buffalo. so 3-3 is possible in the division, but i can't rule out 4-2 with sweeping the pats and jets. Even if you go 4-2 in the division, 8-3 on the rest of the schedule will be tough. I like your optimism, and I can't rule out 12-5 totally, but I'm thinking 10-7 with 11-6 as a reasonable goal.
     
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  6. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    All I want is to win 1 playoff game and I will be happy!
    This is the most excited I have been for a season in 20 plus years.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    For those who haven’t kept track, this season will be the 50th anniversary of the 1972 Miami Dolphins Perfect Season. It’s never been duplicated in the modern era (God how I love the NY Giants).

    In honor of the only undefeated Super Bowl Champions in NFL history…this 50th anniversary, the 2022 Miami Dolphins are going to duplicate the perfect ‘72 season…so those of you who weren’t around to see that magic will get to experience it for yourselves.
     
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  8. Serpico Jones

    Serpico Jones Well-Known Member

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    Most of those wins last year came against high school quarterbacks. Let’s relax a bit. We beat Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson (rookie), Mike Glennon, Cam Newton, Ian Book and rookie Mac Jones.

    We got annihilated in Tennessee with the playoffs on the line, the second year in a row that Tua ended up getting body-bagged with the playoffs on the line.
     
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  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Exactly.

    I've seen this movie too many times. All the great signings, new dynamic coach. I want to see results before I'm convinced were not still the Browns.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's the game that determined our fate last year? The only loss across the final nine games? I would think it was more about us starting the year 1-7.
     
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It doesn't really matter how you got there. Fact is, with the season on the line, he again did poorly.

    Hoping this season he's different.
     
  12. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    I gotta say, I have not been this excited about a Miami team in quite some time. For the first time, I do not see any areas of the team where I see the need for wholescale change. I think we have the right guy at head coach, and I am optimistic about Tua. This team seems like a good group of guys as well.

    There is one thing that I really am concerned about, and it is the human element. What if we go 0-4 to start the season? I imagine that the beginning of our season will have a lot of learning and adjusting. We are shaking up the line again, and here is the deal. I think we are gonna get this thing right with the guys we have on the squad. Will it be week 1? I am not sure about that, but by midseason, I think we are gonna be at least average. I think that this is the right offense for our roster. Will it be running smoothly week 1? Definitely not. What about Coach McDaniel. I really, really like this hire, but seriously, imagine your first game as a HC against Bill Bellichick. He is learning too.

    These first four games are brutal. We have two long tenured solid HCs. We have to go up against the best roster in the AFC, and we have to face a team that nearly won the Super Bowl. We really could go 0-4.

    This human component really scares me. I worry that calls to bench Tua will mount. Coaches could look to make large-scale changes to save the season. Some of the positivity from player like Tyreek could sour. Rumors about Sean Payton could grow.

    If this happens, I would not at all be worried or concerned. I would be very much in favor of staying the course and just growing as a unit and continuing to learn the system. In fact, I would not really say that our record is reflective of our team. I think it would be more reflective of circumstance and the roughest part of our schedule being at a time where our squad is still learning.

    The problem is that it is so easy to say this now. Human reaction is try to do something different when you are failing. Frustration and panic are normal human emotions. Nobody likes to lose.
     
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  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I have the same fears- four losses is a real possibility. You'd think we're ahead of NE and you'd think our defense will play the same game against the Ravens as last year, but neither of those things are guaranteed. Burrow just had emergency surgery on his appendix, so maybe he's still out? It would be a huge break for us, but I really doubt it though. I'm really looking forward to seeing our defense get after Burrow anyway, it's a great early test.

    I think the Buffalo game is basically a guaranteed L. I think we beat the Pats. For Baltimore and Cinci though? That's a very tough call.
     
  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    By "he", I'm guessing you mean Tua? If so, yeah, he did not have a great game against the Titans. But the play-calling in that game was bizarre as well, we couldn't get anything going on offense and it felt like we really weren't trying. I think Flores expected that to be like a 9-6 ballgame or something, but you can't ask the defense to hold for four quarters after continuous 3 and outs.

    That game really drove me nuts- if we would have come out aggressive, took an early lead and switched the D over to cover zero, we could have generated ridiculous pressure on Tannehill and saw a completely different game. Nothing went as planned that day, nothing.
     
  15. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    There is zero doubt that we are a better team than the Patriots this year. I just think that this might be a situation where everyone in NE might have an edge because their offense is collectively in the second year together, and this will be our offense's first game together in a new system.

    Belichick is the type of coach that will almost certainly look to add wrinkles in the defense with the sole intention of just confusing the offense.

    If we were playing them week 5, I seriously would not be sweating this game at all.
     
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  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I agree, but then a part of my mind says, "Yeah, our offense has completely changed and Waddle might be our 3rd or 4th most dangerous weapon. How will other teams account for this much blazing speed if Tua is tossing 3 yard slants?" So other teams will have to adapt to us as well, and that could play into a net-gain week by week. I guess we'll know soon enough.
     
  17. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    Unpopular opinion - Waddle will lead the team in receptions again. Opposing teams best DB will line up against Hill, so he will actually face worse competition this year than he faced last year. You can also really see who Tua trusts, and I am positive that Waddle is high on that list.
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's funny, I would have guessed Gisecki, the rookie with the complicated name, or the kid from Dallas. I think Waddle and Hill will get their share of yards and TD's, but it's really that 3rd or 4th player who benefits the most.

    I mean, a linebacker is going to have to cover Gisecki 1:1 all season- that's a nightmare match-up and he's going to be open over the middle every down. I do expect us to force the ball to Hill as much as possible though, so we'll see. It's exciting to think about the possibilities though if this all comes together.
     
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  19. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    It is interesting that you should say that because I think that Gesicki is the player that I can envision having the widest array of outcomes by the end of the season. Even under Flores, his success was sporadic. There were 10 catch dominant performance and zero reception games.

    Gesicki is so dynamic as a pass catcher, but his ability to block is lacking to say the least. Clearly, he is not a perfect fit within McDaniel's scheme. One of the great storylines is whether or not they can find a way to make it fit.

    I really do not think that it riveting analysis, but I do think that there is more to this than meets the eye. Mike Gesicki's success or failure within the system may have nothing to do with Mike Gesicki. One of the things that I love about having McDaniel and Frank Smith is that both of these guys built their careers in the trenches. I have always thought that this is the best place to lay the foundation for a solid offense. Suppose that we get to the end of the preseason, and the line is still not playing up to par, what would you do? I could seriously imagine the solution to this problem being starting Durham Smythe at TE. Smythe is a pretty solid blocker and has been performed reasonably well when called upon in the passing game. I really think that if this coaching staff was given the choice between having an extra weapon on the field or having better blocking at the line, they would rather shore up the line. Theoretically, this could relegate Gesicki into a situational role.
     
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