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Dolphins Playoff Paths

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Nov 29, 2021.

  1. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    We have meaningful December football when two months ago nobody would have guessed it.
     
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  2. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Fixed that. The season was left for dead on the side of the road at 2-7 and the Ravens game coming up. It's been a fun ride since then. It might go off the rails, probably should go off the rails, before the regular season concludes but until then we can still dream as fans.

    Plus, we need to finish ahead of the 49ers, to feel better about trading away our own pick.
     
  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I worked it out on the playoff predictor earlier, and if the Fins win their next three, they should have a reasonable chance to make the playoffs still alive at that point. Of course, then the hardest work comes beating Tennessee and New England to finish the year out.

    And if they win four out of five, as long as the loss comes vs one of the nfc teams, it's not even crazy that they could squeeze in at 9-8. Not likely, but not off the wall either. Depends on a handful of games outside their control.
     
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  4. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    The Saints are done. I can see them shutting down Kamara and a couple of other guys.

    Taysom Hill is a joke of a quarterback.
     
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  5. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    It is when you have one of the worst Ol in football.
     
  6. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    This is an upgrade. You bashed the team without bashing the quarterback.
     
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    They look cooked tonight, but they play the Jets next week. If/when they lose to TB, then we'll see what they do in that regard before they face us.
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I played around with it a decent bit when I started the thread- there are opportunities at 9 wins but there were too many intangibles this far out.

    Our biggest rival (spoiler, LOL) is the Patriots but they play the Bills, Colts, Bills, Jags, and us. The Colts are playing well so there's a chance that the Pats could lose 4 of the last 5? That would be sweet! We'd need them to lose 3 total (including to us) if we win out or 4 of 5 if we lose to someone else. It's not impossible anyway.

    Of course, you could flip that since the Bills have NE, Bucs, Panthers, NE, Flacons and Jets. I see three potential losses there but can't find a 4th no matter how hard I look. The Bills own tiebreakers over us though so that's nowhere near as likely to play out favorably. If we lose one, we'd need them to lose 5...not going to happen. So we want Buffalo to win the division.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
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  9. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I agree. Basically, we need the Patriots to go 0-3 vs us and the Bills. If that happens, everything else is a lot easier.

    Funny enough, we seem to need to root against the Bengals. In various scenarios that I worked up, we missed out on tiebreakers and they got in. It feels weird - even stupid - to root for the Ravens to beat them, but its in our best interests now, as long as we're alive.

    Given that we aren't going to earn a first round bye, its also smart to just root for the big dogs Buffalo and KC to win out. Take care of our WC competition for us.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I figured that out a few years ago doing these- the team that's winning the division, you want them to just keep on winning and handing out L's to other potential playoff teams. Because if they go on a losing streak, then the math is all over the place and it's almost like hitting the reset button on everyone you were rooting for.
     
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  11. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    If you want to get really nuts, there's one scenario where heading into the Final week, the Chiefs are at 10-6, while the Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Ravens, Titans, Colts, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos are ALL at nine wins.

    If all of that happens (which it of course won't), the Dolphins could still earn a first round bye after starting the year 1-7. :up:
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That would be awesome- but can you imagine dealing with that weeks 17 and 18? We'd be going nuts, LOL! That's why I don't even look at other team's potential paths until we're down to 2 or 3 weeks.

    For now, 3% chance! Win and it's a 5% chance! Then I'll factor in the other teams and how it helped/hurt. =)
     
  13. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Tua has surprised me and.playing well so no reason to bash.As surprising as this is I want him to play well because above all I want to win.
    I just think it's expecting to.much to.think we will 9 in a row.
     
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  14. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I normally would agree. And I probably would have agreed a few weeks ago. But the schedule is honestly extremely favorable. The Giants, Saints and Titans are just beaten to Hell, and the Jets suck.
     
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Just want to point out it's essentially mathematically impossible to have a 5% chance after winning the next game and still have the same 5% chance after winning the next two games. Why? Because not taking into account what the rest of the league does means that what the rest of the league does stays the same in both cases, which means that the only way to stay at the same 5% is if we have a 100% probability of beating the Jets, and obviously that probability isn't 100% (i.e., we could lose). So maybe that's a rounding error, who knows.

    Either way, it's important to note that there are so many games left that no computer can calculate exact probabilities at this stage. Not sure what simulator you're using but I would use FiveThirtyEight's ELO because that's one of the more accurate prediction models. ELO says the probability the Dolphins make the playoffs is 9%, with it rising to 13% after beating the Giants and 15% after the Jets:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2021-nfl-predictions/
     
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  16. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Looking at that it seems like I need to become a Chief and Packers fan. If Chiefs win out and the Packers beat all of AFC teams remaining, Miami's playoff chances are 89% if they win out.
     
  17. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I'm not really concerned about the math. But I use the Playoff Predictor found here:

    https://playoffpredictors.com/Footb...CVY9KPfCgs3FAuEAZmNyx1efvNAAZe-+BgocJGix4iYKA

    It allows you to assign a winner for every single game, and then calculates which teams would make the playoffs based upon that. I've found it to be very reliable and accurate. Its also a great way to look ahead a few weeks at a time and see how things might look at that point.
     
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  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I was using the NY Times playoff calculator just because it's a little easier at a glance- the base metrics are definitely more keyed towards our own outcome instead of the rest of the league. You can really dig down into the details if you want, but it's just too early. The key metric that matters is Miami winning the next three.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/upshot/miami-dolphins-nfl-playoff-picture.html

    But yeah, I thought that was funny too! One win and we go to a 5% chance...two wins and we stay at a 5% chance! However, that's updated based on last night's game. Now 1 win puts us at 7%, two wins at 8% (3 wins 19%, 4 wins 39%, 5 wins 87%). And that will continue to change based on everyone else.
     
  19. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I think we lose at New Orleans but who knows!
     
  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    They're going to be down to their 3rd QB and are currently missing a lot of other important players. We'll see where they are in a few weeks, but they aren't the same team that they used to be. TBD
     
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  21. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    That is really cool. I just went on who I thought would win, and it wound up with that last game vs the Pats being for the last AFC playoff spot. Dolphins win and both teams were 10-7, but the Dolphins had the better division record. Then they had the Titans and the Ravens to get to the conference championship. What a season that would be.
     
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  22. Rouk

    Rouk Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Saw this earlier and had a good laugh.
     
  23. Dolphin Dundee

    Dolphin Dundee Well-Known Member

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    ^^ Nice! yep that about sums it up no matter how good we do in this stretch it will all come crumbling down when they face the Pats at the end..
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2021
  24. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Looking at the playoff picture right now…

    Bottom line, Miami needs to win out and finish the season 10-7. That’s going to be a tall order. In addition to the needed win out, for this week’s games…

    Washington needs to beat the Raiders…which is what I picked.

    Denver needs to lose to Kansas City

    Indianapolis beat the Texans. No surprise there

    Pittsburgh needs to lose to Baltimore…another of my picks

    Cleveland is on a bye this week.
     
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  25. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    The Fins playoff odds and position weren't going to get much better not only this week, but through the next two weeks as well no matter if they went 2-0.

    The big thing is how the rest of the teams play over these three weeks. It could go in the Dolphins favor and put them into a bunch with a lot of other teams fighting over the final three weeks for a WC spot. Or things could go really poorly and Miami could be looking at almost insurmountable odds where even if they win out, they need more help than is possible. We just won't know for a while where we stand.
     
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  26. Pennington's Limp Arm

    Pennington's Limp Arm Well-Known Member

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    Just put on the Sunday nighter and considered that it will probably be better for Dolphins if Broncos lost.

    So I guess I’m at least subconsciously thinking about the playoffs now…
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    In other news SF lost and is at 6-6. We keep this up we might even win that draft position battle from the Waddle trade.
     
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  28. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    Its going to be close either way. Not a huge difference.
     
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  29. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    One spot is the difference between a CeeDee Lamb or a Austin Jackson.
     
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  30. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I don't think that they were going for Lamb anyways, but who knows. I wasn't excited about him, so I didn't pay much attention. I wanted Wirfs, who was taken five spots earlier. But point taken.
     
  31. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to say something that won't be popular, but it also shouldn't be controversial: Our current level of success is not sustainable. We simply don't have the players on the OL or carrying the ball to beat the best teams. We're not winning because of our personnel, we're winning in spite of much of it.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm practically giddy at this point and I can't wait for the bye week to end. I think we have the potential to win these next four games. But without better play from our offensive line, chances are slim that we clear the slate and non-existent that we win in the playoffs, even if we get there. With that being said, we're playing with house money and I am going to enjoy the ride.

    This off-season is going to be huge because our problem seems to be obvious. And if Grier can't address it, then he's the real problem.
     
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  32. byroan

    byroan Giggity Staff Member Administrator Luxury Box

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    Yeah, not sure they would've taken him but I liked him. Didn't think he would even get close to our pick though.
     
  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Tua is showing he can get it done IF he can stay healthy. This defense is playing like a championship caliber defense. This off-season we need to upgrade at least 2 positions on the OL and draft a RB in the 2nd/3rd round.
     
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  34. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I completely agree with you. I posted this in another thread earlier:

    Over the past year and a few days, the Dolphins are 10-9.

    They are 9-0 when limiting the opponent to 17 or fewer points, allowing an average of 11.8 points in victories.

    They are 1-9 when allowing the opponent to score more than 17 points, allowing an average of 34 points in losses.

    Pretty extreme splits.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Agree, but it's worth keeping in mind that similarly "weak" teams have won the SB. The 2011 Giants actually had a negative point differential, a 9-7 regular season record, one of the worst defenses in the NFL (25th ranked in points allowed), yet beat a 15-1 team, and two 13-3 teams (regular season record) in the playoffs to win the SB. So it is sustainable, just not likely to be sustained.

    Also, if we're winning in spite of talent that means our coach is good. How good? Not sure because we only beat one strong team in this recent streak, but I think how this season plays out will tell us a lot about Flores. Flores winning with this talent level is like Tua playing well with a bad OL, so I'm real excited to see how we play against the Titans, NE and possibly playoff teams. But yeah, this next offseason is crucial.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2021
  36. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Exactly how I feel.
     
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I mostly do not agree:
    • I fully think this defensive effort is sustainable for the next 3+ seasons (as long as X and Jones stay healthy)
    • I fully think this offense is sustainable for 20-23 points per game.
    • 20 per game won't win normally, but when our defense has held 4 of the last 5 under 10 points, that's money in the bank
    • I think special teams is sustainable since that's been a weakness lately...we're losing the field position battle and missing FG's
    • All in all, I think as we improve in '22 and '23, we'll move from sustainable to dominant.
    However, I do agree that this is not a typical "playoff team" and that our offense will not fare well against teams like Buffalo and Tampa in the playoffs. They can generate pressure without blitzing, so the only way we win is our D completely shutting things down, generating some points AND Tua having his best game of the year. Could we do it once? Sure. But we'd have to have substantial improvements from the line and the WR corps to make it to a divisional championship or the SB.

    With that defense though, I am not terrified of any team in the league at the moment. We just need to take an early lead and then do what we do in the cover zero, and we can literally beat anyone.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2021
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  38. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I hope you're right. The defense gives us a chance against anybody. But on the flip side, I'm waiting for teams to flip the script on us and start blitzing us every other play (or more). Remember the Buffalo game. Once they start bringing safety and CB blitzes, things are going to change quick, fast, and in a hurry. It's definitely going to happen. The wildcard is Lyndsey, who can either pick up the hot read or slip behind it for a quick pass. Gaskin too, although he missed a block today.
     
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  39. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that you're being overly positive. I really don't think that the defense we've seen lately is sustainable. We've played five teams in a row that have bad passing games. Four of them featured quarterbacks who hadn't played much this season prior to our game, and four of the games were at home. Credit to Flores, Boyer and Co. for doing what has been necessary and coming up with a creative wrinkle to shut those teams down for the most part.

    The good news is that after a week off, we get to face two more of those teams in a row as well. We very well could shut down the Jets and Saints to win seven games in a row and get over .500. Its a feel good story. But the extremely favorable circumstances surrounding it need to be taken into account. Its very much like a defense version of the Wildcat in 2008, when the Fins rode a novelty scheme against an extremely weak schedule filled with low scoring games to a division title after a slow start. Almost a mirror image. But the Wildcat was not sustainable as a base scheme, they relied on it too long, and it ended up hindering them more than helping them in following seasons as the offense failed to otherwise develop.

    This defense gets very little push with the front four without blitzing, and they get almost zero push from the interior. The linebacker unit is highly questionable, and I'm not sure they really know what to do with Jerome Baker. one of their best players, due to all of the blitzing. Add to that the fact that our pass defense usually looks great against bad teams, but can look outright terrible against good ones.

    And that's before we even talk about the offense, which is the weaker side of the ball. My main point is that the team isn't as good as their record has shown lately. And they've made little to no progress from 2020 in a lot of areas. We'll hope that they can add to the talent in the offseason given that we have the most cap space in the league, but I think that the coaching staff needs to have a major overhaul that I worry isn't coming.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You could be right, but remember that the cover zero carried us to 10 wins last season as well. I do agree that it's a gimmick to some extent, but it works in Miami because we have two elite press corners. The problem with that style of defense is that it works really well playing with a lead...meaning we have to have a lead against those elite teams to execute. Against the Bills and Tampa, that didn't happen. Against Baltimore, it did.

    The other part of that is how we run the cover zero- with a lead we use it as a base defensive package and shift out of it regularly. It works so well because the opponent doesn't know where the pressure is coming from or if it's a true cover zero, so they're trying to get the ball out fast and it leads to mistakes. That's really the basis...it's not the all-out blitz every down, it's the confusion in masking coverages. And I see no reason why it can't continue to work.

    I do agree with you that the Jets and the Saints SHOULD BE wins and I think the cover-zero is going to frustrate the heck out of Tannehill. We know he's prone to strip sacks under hidden pressure and I'm honestly not looking forward to that game for obvious reasons (I'm still a big RT fan). I really think it all comes down to NE and the growth of their young QB this season.

    For the heck of it, let's talk playoffs for a moment. The top three seeds (as of today) are the Pats, Titans and Ravens. We've beaten two of those teams convincingly already and we'll have the Titans soon enough. Either we beat the Titans and get a shot at the playoffs or we don't...but for the sake of conversation, lets say we win that one. Which of those three are unbeatable in the wildcard?

    We're hoping the Bills win out, which is good and bad at the same time. We don't want them the #2 seed for obvious reasons- they're the only team in the AFC that truly scares me. Chiefs, Chargers and Bengals...we can also hang with (Chiefs are always scary too though). I just don't see an AFC team past the Bills that's unbeatable with a lead and the cover zero.

    Now the NFC- that's a different story but we'd also be talking Super Bowl to face one of their top teams. Cardinals, Packers, Bucs, Cowboys, Rams...they're all scary for this team. But we're done with the NFC this year unless magic happens.

    My point here is that if we win four more games this year and make it to the playoffs, we will have beaten every AFC playoff contender in 2020/2021 except for the Bills. When we're playing our game and this team is firing on all cylinders, the playoffs are not taboo like we make them out to be. We can beat the Pats, Titans, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Steelers, Colts, Raiders, etc. if we execute properly. It's just those stinkin' Bills...keep them out of the #2 seed and I think we get our 1st playoff win.

    Of course, I'm way ahead of myself and we still have work to do...I just wanted to illustrate a little more that the playoff teams we're scared of, we've already beaten convincingly (Pats, Ravens, Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals) or will have to beat convincingly (Titans) in the near future. I'm still a huge RT fan but I really think this defense obliterates him and exposes all of his weaknesses.
     
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