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Week 1 Game Thread! Dolphins @ Patriots

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Aug 31, 2021.

  1. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    But he will take injections of god knows what to kill the pain when he's hurt. Maybe too many hits to the head. The funny thing is that even though now he's infected, he still has to go through all the stuff not being vax'd. And he's going to lose his game day roster bonus for this week and maybe next week.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think the line doesn't sufficiently incorporate the Dolphins' pass defense against a rookie QB in his first NFL game, along with Flores's ample time to prepare and scheme. Look what Flores did to Goff last year with a bye week to prepare, and Goff was nowhere near being a rookie in his first game.

    I would bet the farm on the Dolphins in this one and take the three points gleefully. The Patriots may score only single-digit points in this one due to the above factors, and if they do that they're highly unlikely to win. I think they'll just have tremendous difficulty scoring. The factors you mentioned above may suppress the Dolphins' scoring as well, but nowhere near as much in my opinion.
     
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I mostly agree but the in a way the question is the same both ways. Can the Dolphins score on the Patriots? This is the end of Tua's rookie year too, in a way, and Belichick can scheme too. But it's our OL I fear. I'm not sure they can hold up against the Patriots' DL. If they can prevent the mid-deep pass game and keep it short then we may not be able to run or use ot WRs to full degree, keeping us one or two dimensional.

    Tua will have to deal with pressure and a smart defence, can he avoid being pressured into turn overs?

    In a way, this will be a test of the idea of bringing in fast, play-making receivers. If they can turn short passes into long runs, or at least first downs, the offence might be able to ruin Belichick's plans. If not, everyone might want to skip these boards for a day or two while the mods put on hazmat suits to clear up the toxic threads!
     
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  4. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Which rookie is going to deal with the pressure from the D the best I guess. They have our playbook since they signed the guy we cut - forgot his name - he's dead to me now - LoL.
     
  5. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    THis is why I am over confident.

    Miami has legit two of the fastest receivers in the league. While Jakeem Grant hasn't broken a long one yet, he still has taken a short pass into a first down with ease.

    Then after the two fastest receivers in the league there is Wilson, who is also pretty fast.

    After that Miami has three receivers that they can just throw the ball too and could make catches without being open who are legit route runners. I am counting Gesicki as a wide receiver.

    Then there is Mack Hollins whose speed is better than people give him credit for.

    I just don't know if New England's defense can run with these guys.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I think the difference between a rookie QB in game one (Jones) and the Tua I saw in the preseason is very likely to be night-and-day. Tua exhibited a strong ability to sense and evade pressure while keeping his eyes downfield and making very accurate throws. Mac Jones on the other hand exhibited a 9.6% sack rate in the preseason, which would've been more than two standard deviations above league average in 2020. Wait till Jones experiences the Dolphins' defensive starters (as opposed to the typical preseason personnel mixtures) and Flores with ample time to prepare and scheme.

    I think it could be downright ugly for them. And again if they can't score, they can't win. Tua might not play as well in this game as he does in other games this year, due to the factors you noted, but this is one I think he can win even if he plays well below what will likely be his norm.
     
  7. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Mac Jones holds several NCAA records, one of which is pass completions % 77.6% I believe. That indicates that he makes fast, smart decisions (at the college level). That, coupled with NE having a very good OL suggests that he's ready to start. At least so much so that Billycheat felt comfortable enough letting Cam go and starting the rookie. I don't think it will be a blowout either way. We better be able to stop the run.
     
  8. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    My fear, and I hope I'm wrong, is that NE's defense won't have to run with these guys because our OL won't be able to hold out long enough. They'll wage the war all up in Tua's face and leave our galloping cavalry with nothing to do.
     
  9. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    He beat Colt McCoy's record. So it is not a given that he will be great.

    I will need to see it to believe it
     
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  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    If they are doing it right they will not have to hold them off for long.

    Just one broken tackle and they are gone.
     
  11. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think we know O Line is a problem going into the season and I also think Tua will have the ball coming out super fast to Grant, Waddle, etc on screens, slants and crossing routes. That's the easiest way to force the defense to stay at home, especially when a receiver takes a 2-yard catch for a long TD. Tua is also fairly good navigating the pocket though and buying an extra second for routes to open up...I'm just not expecting a major problem in week one (the Bills in week 2 is a different story).

    I feel VERY, VERY STRONGLY that you're wrong here; I think we'll take the lead early and then the defense is going to wrap up this game in a pretty little bow by making Mac Jones look stupid. Maybe I'm wrong, but let's hope I'm right since I have a pretty good track record predicting these sorts of match-ups. I really think we win by 14+.
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I think if Miami doesn't do the thing where they just beat themselves with things like 3rd down drops, end zone interceptions, and third down penalties or the dreaded 3rd and 18 defense first down, I think they will win the game by 14+ as well.
     
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  14. Den54

    Den54 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    AMERICA!
    Lots of RPO's please.
     
  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Interesting article here, as it pertains to going up against Mac Jones this weekend:

    https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl...ek-1-starts-history/q4bw2601hz4a13hcv2hmug1fx

    Based on the QB data in that article, there is a -0.72 correlation between number of pass attempts and passer rating for rookie QBs starting in week 1 of the NFL regular season. The more times a rookie QB throws the ball in this situation, the worse his passer rating, and the relationship is a strong one. In fact with the exception of Carson Wentz, there isn't a single QB listed there who played well when throwing the ball over 30 times in that situation.

    On the other hand, in a random sample of 100 regular season games from 2020, the correlation between pass attempts and passer rating is a mere -0.02, meaning that there is normally no relationship between those variables. Passer rating has nothing to do with pass attempts under normal conditions.

    So, what that means of course is that if history is any indication, the Dolphins stand a very good chance of winning this weekend if they can play the game such that Mac Jones has to throw the ball a lot. And that can happen in a variety of ways.
     
  17. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Game Preview (collegefootballnews.com)

    "What’s Going To Happen
    Expect a whole lot of defense against the Alabama quarterbacks.

    Tagovailoa will make more mistakes than Jones, but he’ll also come up with more big plays. It’ll be the Patriot running game, tempo, and late defensive stops that pulls this off at home.
    New England 24, Miami 23"

    Gill Alexander, VSIN: New England
    Jeff Feyerer, CFN: New England
    Pete Fiutak, CFN: New England
    Phil Harrison, BuckeyesWire.com: Miami
    Jeremy Mauss, , MWwire.com: New England
    Zac Neel, DucksWire.com: Miami
    Tyler Nettuno, GatorsWire.com: New England
    Big Game Ben Niewoehner, CFN New England
    Nick Shepkowski, @Shep670, FightingIrishWire.com: New England
    John Williams, SoonersWire.com: Miami
    Clucko the Chicken, CFN: Miami
    CONSENSUS PICK: New England
    --------------------------------------------------------

    Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots picks, predictions NFL Week 1 (azcentral.com)

    "The Big Lead: Dolphins 21, Patriots 17
    Kyler Koster and Liam McKeone write: "Tua Tagovailoa, meanwhile, has looked awfully sharp so far this summer. The Patriots have a stiff defense but Tua will break out and lead his Dolphins to a win while Bill Belichick gazes longingly at Mac Jones.""

    "Sporting News: Patriots 17, Dolphins 13
    Vinnie Iyer writes: "The Dolphins are rebooting their offense in the first full year of Tua Tagovailoa starting. Brian Flores has a pretty good defense, built in the image of mentor Bill Belichick's scheme. This feels like a messy low-scoring game decided by a few offensive mistakes. Miami will make those while New England is fine being a bit conservative in a battle of attrition.""

    "WSN: Take the Patriots to cover against the Dolphins
    Mike Lukas writes: "Last season, QB Tua Tagovailoa periodically struggled as a rookie under head coach Brian Flores to the point where many thought he might have lost his starting job, but he is more comfortable with the offense now plus he has DeVante Parker and Will Fuller to throw to along with Gronk-like TE Mike Gesicki, so it could look different for Tua this season as they travel to Foxborough for Week 1. Both teams look solid this season but give the edge to the Patriots in front of their hometown crowd, plus given their record of winning five of the last six season openers, they are a solid bet here in Week 1.""

    "International Business Times: Go with the Dolphins with the points against the Patriots
    Anthony Riccobono writes: "Miami might be on its way to staying ahead of New England in the AFC East for the foreseeable future.""

    "Play Picks: Take the Patriots against the Dolphins
    Brian Sausa writes: "An AFC East rivalry resumes immediately as the Patriots host the Dolphins in Foxborough in Week 1. New England opened at -2 but as the offseason has progressed, the spread began to grow a bit. The Patriots managed to go 7-9 despite injuries and a lack of roster talent, but it looks like that has all changed ahead of 2022. The Dolphins have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL. They managed to hold onto All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard and return one of the best scoring defenses in the league. Miami also added two weapons in the first round of the draft to help out Tua Tagovailoa, who we should see improve in year two. That said, we need to back New England here. The Patriots have won five of the past six season openers and even though this is a different team, there’s one thing that remains the same. Nobody feasts on young quarterbacks the way Bill Belichick does and he’s also one of the coaches with a winning track record with time to prepare. We may very well see an improved Tua, but we aren’t likely to see it in Week 1. At a field goal or less, we are fine with taking the Patriots to open up the season with a win and a cover. Three points may be a push number, but there are currently plus-odds out there and that could be worthwhile.""

    "CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Dolphins 21
    Jordan Dajani writes: "The Patriots hosted the Dolphins in Foxborough in Week 1 last year as well, and defeated them, 21-11. Bill Belichick returns all of his defensive opt-outs and also made several notable additions in free agency. I like the Dolphins' potential, but give me Belichick coming out and making a statement in Week 1. ""

    "ESPN: Patriots predicted to defeat Dolphins
    The site's Football Power Index gives the Patriots a 59.8% chance to beat the Dolphins in Week 1 of the NFL season."

    "Pro Football Network: Dolphins 24, Patriots 20
    Ben Rolfe writes: "Brian Flores versus Bill Belichick. Tua Tagovailoa versus Mac Jones. The narratives on this one write themselves. Will the experience of the Patriots’ defense be enough to protect an offense that is a complete question mark? Can Tua and the Dolphins’ offense light up the Patriots in New England? The uncertainty of Jones suggests that this will be a Dolphins win. Jones is unlikely to run a much different offense to the one run by Tom Brady in New England. Flores should have a good idea of how to stop that.""
     
  18. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    NFL Week 1: Game Preview: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

    "
    SCOUTING THE MATCHUPS
    By Paul Perillo

    When the Patriots run: Edge: Patriots
    When the Patriots pass: Edge: Dolphins
    When the Dolphins run: Edge: Patriots
    When the Dolphins pass: Edge: Dolphins
    Special Teams: Edge: Patriots


    PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI IN SEASON OPENERS
    The Patriots will be opening the season against the Miami Dolphins for the 10th time in team history and for the second straight season after the 21-11 season-opening win vs. Miami on Sept. 13, 2020. The last time the Patriots opened the season two years in a row against the same opponent was in 1988 and 1989 against the New York Jets.

    The Patriots, who are 54-57 all-time against Miami, are 5-4 against the Dolphins when meeting in the season-opener. The Patriots are 4-1 in home games and 1-3 at Miami. Miami will become the most frequent team that the Patriots open with after opening day. The Patriots have met Buffalo in the season-opener nine times.


    • The Patriots have gone 86 straight games (regular season and postseason) scoring in the first half, an NFL record. The Patriots also own the second-longest streak at 82 games with a first half score (2006-11). The last time the Patriots failed to score in the first half was a 16-0 loss at home against Buffalo on Oct. 2, 2016.
    • The Patriots are 102-1 all-time at Gillette Stadium in the regular season when leading at halftime. New England's only loss was on Sept. 7, 2017 when the Patriots held a 17-14 lead at halftime before losing 42-17 to the Kansas City Chiefs on opening day of the 2017 season.
    • Under Head Coach Bill Belichick, quarterbacks are 6-0 in their first career starts. Of those six quarterbacks, Eric Zeier and Jacoby Brissett made their first starts in their rookie seasons.
    The Patriots have 24 new players on the 53-man roster that did not play a game with the Patriots during the 2020 season.

    • 2021 draft picks – QB Mac Jones, DL Christian Barmore, LB Ronnie Perkins and RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
    • 2021 rookie free agents – K Quinn Nordin
    • 2021 rookies (claimed or traded) – CB Shaun Wade
    • Veteran free agents making their return to the Patriots – T Trent Brown, OL Ted Karras, LB Harvey Langi and LB Kyle Van Noy.
    • Veteran free agents – WR Nelson Agholor, DL Henry Anderson, WR Kendrick Bourne, OL Yasir Durant, DL Davon Godchaux, TE Hunter Henry, LB Matt Judon, DB Jalen Mills, WR Malcolm Perry, TE Jonnu Smith.
    • Veterans returning from Reserve-Opt Out – RB Brandon Bolden and LB Dont'a Hightower
    • Veterans returning from Reserve Lists – OL Yodny Cajuste and LB Brandon King"
     
  19. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction, Game Preview (yahoo.com)

    "Why Miami Will Win

    How much do you really believe in a rookie quarterback in his first game?

    Mac Jones might turn out to be a special talent for the Patriots, but he’s about to get hit hard by a Miami defense that led the NFL in interceptions and was second in touchdown passes allowed. With a loaded secondary and a terrific group of corners, the Dolphins will be a master class in NFL reads in Game One.

    He’s still working his way through the rough patches, but Tua Tagovailoa is the veteran in this – and he has the guys to spread the ball around. The offense should be balanced, and there’s no need to force anything that’s not there.

    Why New England Will Win
    It might seem basic, but it’s Bill Belichick with several weeks to prepare for a season opener – his team got Miami 22-11 in the 2020 lid lifter.

    The offense will take the pressure off of Jones with a steady diet of Damien Harris and the ground game, the tempo will be slowed down to keep the score in range, and the defense will give Tagovailoa a whole lot of funky problems to deal with.

    Miami might have an amazing secondary, but the Patriots picked off 18 throws last season and should be ball-hawking again if they can bother …"
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Previewing the Miami Dolphins-New England Patriots Matchup from a Fantasy Perspective - Sports Illustrated Miami Dolphins News, Analysis and More

    "...It's also important to note that it was Salvon Ahmed who had the big game when the Dolphins rushed for 250 yards against the Patriots last December."

    "Our take: As opening tests go, this definitely isn't an easy one for Tua. Yes, the Patriots will be without star cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but their defense figures to be much improved with the return of Dont'a Hightower and the additions of Matt Judon and former Dolphins linebacker Kyle Van Noy and former Dolphins defensive tackle Davon Godchaux."

    "
    Jaylen Waddle: "Waddle will no doubt have his share of big games in the NFL, but an opening week game against the Patriots is not all that favorable for a rookie. In fact, it’s tough to start either Waddle or DeVante Parker. The Patriots allowed an average of fewer than 150 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers last season, not to mention the eighth-fewest fantasy points (33.4 PG)."

    Our take: The equalizing factor for Waddle in every situation he'll encounter is his ridiculous speed, which is why we wouldn't be so quick to count him, even against the Patriots."

    "
    Hunter Henry vs. Dolphins (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
    Our take: The best guess here is that the Dolphins will put Rowe on Smith, which means that someone will have to account for Henry. Maybe the Dolphins put Jerome Baker on him, maybe it's Jason McCourty. But the Dolphins shouldn't ignore Henry because he does have ability."
     
  21. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Henry hasn't practiced or played in months since his shoulder injury. Let's see how he holds up if he is the frequent target.
     
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  22. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I wonder why Albert Wilson is a backup and grant is a starter on the outside?Grant is a terrible wr and Wilson lit up camp.Mayne not fully healthy?
     
  23. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    I'm not sure the depth charts are particularly meaningful. Do you know if there are any NFL rules about them?
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Grant did have a solid camp as well at WR, I think Wilson was just reported more since he wasn't expected to be on the level he's playing. In any case though, I think we'll see a healthy mix of receivers throughout games since we legitimately have 7 or 8 guys that would deserve the title "starter".

    Personally, I'm looking forward to the rare times when you have Grant, Wilson and Waddle on the field on the same play- it will obviously be some type of speed gimmick.
     
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  25. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    All the pundits are saying they don't trust Tua. But, they trust a rookie making his first NFL start.

    Tua needs to light it up.
     
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  26. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Just curious how you would feel if jones outplays him?
     
  27. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Obviously I would want them to cut Tua and trade 5 first round picks for Jones.
     
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  28. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Just asked a question.
     
  29. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Can I see Belichick drawing up a perfect gameplan on defense? Yes.

    Is Mac Jones going to win the game for New England? Absolutely not.
     
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  30. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  31. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    A 9 DB package? WOW! That's completely confusing.
     
  33. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    Just curious your outlook if we lose?
     
  34. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    I'm surprised Christian Wilkins was named a captain.
     
  35. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  36. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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  37. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    Damn. He looks like he is about 12 years old in that pic.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It would really depend on how we lose. The defense should keep the points low and I think we should field a great special teams unit again this year. So if it's more of the same from last year- defensive battles where we're getting a slight edge in field position but really can't sustain drives, it's a red flag for me win or lose. I mean, even if we win 17-0 solely off of pick six's and red zone turnovers, I'm going to be disappointed to some extent.

    If we get blown out, my initial reaction will be "it's only week 1"...but it's reason for major concern. We face two teams much better than the Pats in the first five weeks, and I really believe that this is a "must win" game for where our team should be in 2021. We can't start another year 1-4 and get hot down the stretch...we're supposed to be past those growing pains. All you can really judge in week 1 is growth.

    Bottom line, the Pats have improved this offseason by spending a ton of money and getting a lot of defensive starters back. But on the other side, their top corner is out and they're starting a rookie QB against our very capable defense. With Cam and their top CB starting, I'd say this would be a 3 point game that could go either way. But without them I really feel like this should be a 10+ point win for Miami.


    Again, just my 2 cents...maybe I'm way off on the pulse of this team. But I do feel like we're going to start fast this season and be that perennial playoff contender by year's end. We probably can't get there though if we struggle to beat a rookie QB in his first NFL start- this is a dream matchup for us against the Pats.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2021
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  39. pumpdogs

    pumpdogs Well-Known Member

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    I for one will be very upset if we lose this game.And I need to correct you that we didn't sweep the pats.They beat us opening day last year 21-11 and then we lost to the bills.I don't think we can afford a repeat of 2020.We need to start strong.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Oh, you're completely right- I somehow forgot about that. So we're starting with the exact same 2-week schedule as last year. That makes it even more of a "must-win" in my book. Because think about it- if we beat the Pats week one last season, we were pretty much locked for the playoffs by week 15. The entire year plays out different because of one divisional win.

    Then add in that we almost beat the Bills last year in week 2...those two losses were all we really needed to win the whole division, even with the week 17 blowout.
     

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