1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

DeShaun Watson available for Trade

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Apr 29, 2021.

  1. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    Not interested. I think I'd stop following the Dolphins altogether if they traded for him at this point.
     
    Tin Indian and Dorfdad like this.
  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The Texans are out of their mind expecting that much- that was the maximum pre-gossip value.
     
    Dorfdad likes this.
  3. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    No thanks. Character counts, especially for the leader of your team.
     
    Dorfdad likes this.
  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    Technically-speaking, you're wrong. I said I wouldn't trade him for less than 10 first round picks. :)


    He's an elite QB in his physical prime. At his age, his value is tops in the NFL behind who? Pat Mahomes and Josh Allen maybe? Is there literally anyone else? We're talking about a guy who's on a course for the Hall-of-fame at literally the single most important position in all of sports and who has 10-15 years of football ahead of him.

    So I start by asking for about 10 first rounds picks, especially if I'm the Texans.

    If it actually happens, Watson will be one of the most valuable commodities to ever be traded. I don't think we can look at this in terms of trading regular positional players, even elite ones.

    How much do you believe elite defenders like Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack are worth? Okay, now consider that a QB has even more impact than they do AND plays at an elite level for WAY longer. At this point, it appears QBs only get better with age up until about 40yo in a league that's only going to bend the rules more and more in their direction to favor offense.

    You wouldn't trade a Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers in their prime unless you absolutely had to. You wouldn't entertain trading Dan Marino or Peyton Manning if you believed that's what you had. And quite frankly, the Houston Texans still don't have to trade him. And even if they elect to do it, they can still field offers from literally 25-30 teams despite him having the "choice to decline."

    If the Dolphins could acquire Watson for 3 first round picks knowing they have an outstanding HC/DC I think it would make a ton of sense to do it. Good-bye Tua. Good-bye Xavien Howard. Good-bye a couple R1 picks.

    I'd sign up for that in a heartbeat. You won't miss the R1 picks (maybe 50% of which will work out) but every time Watson makes a play you'll always remember you could've had him a la Drew Brees.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
    Drizzy likes this.
  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    The situation has changed from before the sexual assault allegations. It's not even clear right now if Watson can play in 2021 given his legal troubles. I agree that if you plug in Watson with that defense from last year we're a SB contender, but what if Watson can't play until 2022 (some are even predicting 2023 at the earliest) or is suspended for too many games in 2021?

    I'd only consider trading for him IF it's certain he can play from game 1 with no suspension. Otherwise what's the point? We might as well see if Tua has it or not. I mean.. we're probably not keeping Tua in any Watson trade, and if you trade away Tua who is our QB in 2021 if Watson can't play??
     
    Silverphin and KeyFin like this.
  6. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
     
  7. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
    Honestly I’m goi g to hide but I’m going to bet if he comes to the east it’s with New England they need a franchise QB bad and they always have bad first rounders so I can see them Rossi g 2 first and 2 thirds
     
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    While I do agree with how you calculated his "value", you didn't subtract his availability for 21/22 or the actual demand for signing him. By now, almost every team that expressed interest has either signed or drafted another option at QB and it's too late for them to change course this year. Miami is in the unique position where we could start him this season or move on without him...and that's a great position to be in.

    Based on demand, my "value" for Watson today would be the equivalent of two 1st rounders. I would also give that same value for Xavien Howard, so that's my offer...X for Watson straight up. If the Texans want multiple 1st round picks on top of that, then I'd be asking for another player- Laremy Tunsil would do.

    X and two 1st rounders, one 2nd rounder for Watson and Tunsil. That's my offer. And I'd sell it by saying Tunsil is insurance for the potential that Watson might not be able to play the next few seasons.
     
  9. Drizzy

    Drizzy Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    2,775
    3,246
    113
    Nov 18, 2017
    Watson just finished 1st in the league in Y/A and 2nd in passer rating despite no longer having a top 5 WR and his new #1 wideout basically missing 1/3 of the season. If I needed a QB for the next 12+ years I’m not taking anyone over him not named Mahomes.
     
    Pauly and DolphinGreg like this.
  10. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    If we're talking about a player that can totally re-shape the next 15 years of the franchise then his greatness is what we should be focusing on, not how good the team might be at this moment or whether they have to put themselves in position to win the Super Bowl this year.

    I understand the Dolphins look relatively solid right now, but who knows how they'll be in 5 years? Tua may be the next Teddy Bridgewater. Brian Flores maybe the next Mike Zimmer. The Dolphins might be the next Minnesota Vikings which is to say a good team but not a real contender.

    I think having a Deshaun Watson in the fold for the next 15 years is as important to being competitive as all of the Grier/Flores rebuild in and of itself. I think you're probably looking at DW as being icing on that cake, but DW alone is actually bigger than all these last few years. Don't over-estimate what you actually know about Tua, or Brian Flores for that matter. Tua kind of sucked last year and he doesn't really have the big arm or running style that warrants patience as he develops. And there still plenty of time for Brian Flores to turn out as one of those guys who's pretty good with defense but really doesn't know offense and whose teams are often 1-sided. We've seen that: Todd Bowles, Rex Ryan, Lovie Smith, etc. Heck, Flores brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick and an ancient mummy to call plays last year. Do you really trust him 100%, enough to turn down a QB you know is elite?

    I'm by no means saying I'm anti-Tua or that I'd be upset if we find out Miami could've pursued Watson but chose not to. I'm not expecting Watson to ever play for Miami. I understand why it might not be worth the hassle at this point to forget all of what's been done and to instead make an about face and say, 'this is the most important thing we can do for the team despite having spent the last 3 years obsessing about draft picks, free agency, roster rebuilding, etc.'

    The Dolphins openly tanked in a way that was pretty unprecedented. It could be too much to bare for them to publically reverse course and say, 'eh, who cares, now we're going to throw all that away in favor of chasing this one guy.'

    But, IMHO, I think having an elite QB projected to play 15 years into the future is more appealing than just about anything else your can drum up. We've seen lots of good DCs become HCs only to end up with no titles (think Lovie Smith or Mike Zimmer) or even leaving in disgrace (think Rex Ryan or Todd Bowles).

    Think of how many of those teams that were led by elite defenses imploded almost immediately once it was clear they had no offense: the Grossman-era Bears, the Kaepernick-era 49ers, the Sanchez-era Jets, the Bortles-era Jaguars, etc. Those would-be dynasties all fell apart in a couple short years when it became clear they didn't have a sustainable offense. And yet the teams with elite QBs have all managed to remain relevant for long periods: Brady/NE, Brees/NO, Roethlisberger/PIT, Rodgers/GB, Manning/IND, Wilson/SEA, etc.

    I'm just coming from the standpoint of knowing it's a "QB-driven league" and that while a great defense might last 3-4 years, a great QB can last 4-5 times as long. Look at what Aaron Rodgers has accomplished since taking over in Green Bay in 2008: 7 NFC North titles, 11 Play-off wins, a Super Bowl title, 3 league MVP seasons, and countless gaudy stats.

    And to add salt to the wound, Rodgers did that against Lovie Smith's Bears and Mike Zimmer's Vikings.

    Look at the history of the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger. The presence of an elite QB allows the team to float around .500 (usually slightly above) while it ascends (in many cases to Super Bowl titles) in periods of good defensive play.

    Now, is Deshaun Watson capable of doing for his future team(s) what Rodgers and Roethlisberger have for theirs? Maybe not, but if you have a QB it's proven to be the case that you get more chances to win titles. We've seen way more of the "elite QB teams" make it to Super Bowls (and win!) than we have the "short window of great defense" teams. Sometimes, we end up with Super Bowls where multiple elite QBs face off.

    You're clearly better off over the course of 10-15 years having the elite QB versus trying to sustain an elite defense. Who's done that besides maybe Bill Belichick? And of course he had Tom Brady!
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
    Drizzy likes this.
  11. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    If someone is going to argue he's a perv, I get it.

    If they're going to tell me he's too demanding and might take a public stance against the owner, I won't argue.

    But on the basis of skill and impact, he's as good as you're ever going to see hit the market.
     
    Drizzy likes this.
  12. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    What if he can't play in 2021?

    I don't really care. It's still more than worth it to acquire him as an asset so the team can build around him (see my post above to KeyFin).
     
  13. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,161
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Honestly was strange of him to report to Houston… almost like hes backtracking now that hes in a giant mess and has nowhere to go… i dont think houston will find the pckage theyre looking for… not even something remotely close
     
  14. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,161
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Could you imagine if we decided to trade every asset we had for him back however months ago and then his mess came about… good lord… the football gods are looking after us guys… keep your prayers on the dolphins..
     
    Drizzy and Dol-Fan Dupree like this.
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    OK.. longer term the issue is salary cap. There's no question this is a QB-driven league, but if you look at QBs that have won the SB since 2000 you see not only good/great QBs but also QBs that generally had team friendly deals or were on rookie contracts.

    Based on this article:
    https://www.sdpb.org/blogs/sports-and-leisure/which-quarterbacks-are-winning-super-bowls/

    Listing just the cap friendly deal QBs you have:
    2000: Dilfer (low money vet)
    2001: Brady (rookie minimum deal)
    2002: Johnson (low money vet)
    2003: Brady (prove-it extension)
    2004: Brady (prove-it extension)
    2005: Roethlisberger (rookie deal)
    2007: Eli (rookie deal)
    2008: Roethlisberger (rookie deal)
    2009: Brees (prove-it contract with Saints/average $10 million per season)
    2010: Rodgers (first year of extension/low cap hit)
    2012: Flacco (rookie deal)
    2013: Wilson (rookie deal)
    2017: Wentz (rookie deal) and Foles (backup money)
    2019: Mahomes (rookie deal)

    So.. in the last 20 years (technically leaving out last year.. so 2000-2019) 14 out of 20 SB winning QB's were on team friendly deals. You can't just look at the quality of the QB. You have to look at the effect of QB salary on the rest of the team. Watson will command a ransom. Statistically speaking this isn't as good a long term strategy as you might think if you ignored the effect of salary. The calculus here isn't Tua vs. Watson. It's Tua + many possible QB's we might draft to replace him over the next 10-15 years on rookie contracts vs Watson + big salary cap hit. It's not at all clear we have a better chance at winning a SB with Watson + big contract, which is why I'm leaning towards not trading for Watson and seeing if we finally got the QB in the draft we wanted in Tua, or whether we need to try again.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
    KeyFin and DolphinGreg like this.
  16. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    The rules mandate huge fines that cannot be waived by the teams. Unless he was willing to forfeit basically his entire salary, there wasn't a realistic way to hold out. We are seeing with Rogers also saying he will report and play.

    Overall, in terms of talent, I'm with Greg that three first rounders is a more than reasonable price to pay. But I don't see how anyone trades for him with the legal stuff hanging up in the air. If that can be settled prior to the season, maybe that changes. But I'm not shipping off players and picks for a dude who might not suit up for a few years, face possible (though unlikely) jail time, immediately demand new salaries to pay off settlement money, etc. I need to see what the outcome is first. Also, just as a fan, as much as I want to win, knowing we are winning with a sleazebag at the helm is just kind of unsatisfying. I dunno.
     
  17. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    100%. These questions always have to be put in terms of value.

    I know I brought it up in other threads how I'm not totally sure that Seattle's re-signing of Russell Wilson was as much of a no-brainer as most of the media thought. Not sure the contract details but it's not a foregone conclusion that every team needs to automatically go and give big-money to their burgeoning young QB just because he shows promise.

    Because of what you lay out, it seems to me that more teams should be jettisoning their average-to-slightly-above QBs rather than re-signing them. I don't think Washington was crushed to lose Cousins. I don't think the Dolphins did the wrong thing letting go of Tannehill. I think guys like Wentz, Stafford and Goff switching teams is probably going to be more common as we go forward. We all recognize that the Falcons would love to get rid of Matt Ryan and start their rebuild yesterday.

    So it could be that you're right, but I think I'd still take a shot with a player as skilled as Watson. I think he could be the next Aaron Rodgers, a freakishly talented player that does limit his team a little because of how much of a standout he is (one that's sure to be expensive). But IMHO he's also a guy who's probably good enough to win at least one Super Bowl in his career the way we saw the Packers do with Aaron Rodgers. The Falcons got there with Matt Ryan, right?

    It's not like you can't assemble a good team around a veteran QB. We do see that, too. And in the meantime, you're going to be highly entertained. You're not lost in the endless ocean of mediocrity where there's no hope. Instead, you probably end up (at worst) with a losing record in the Play-offs like we saw with Peyton Manning and the Colts. Is that really a bad parting gift?

    Almost all great QBs get their shot at some point. How many Dan Marinos have there actually been? That's really the question.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2021
    cbrad likes this.
  18. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    @cbrad

    It's probably also important to look at the Super Bowl losers were as well, if only for the fact that a lot of the same guys who won also lost shortly before and/or after.

    2020: KC - Mahomes
    2019: SF - Garoppolo
    2018: LA - Goff
    2017: NE - Brady
    2016: ATL - Ryan
    2015: CAR - Newton
    2014: SEA - Wilson
    2013: DEN - Manning
    2012: SF - Kaepernick
    2011: NE - Brady
    2010: PIT - Roethlisberger
    2009: IND - Manning
    2008: ARI - Warner
    2007: NE - Brady
    2006: CHI - Grossman
    2005: SEA - Hasselbeck
    2004: PHI - McNabb
    2003: CAR - Delhomme
    2002: OAK - Gannon
    2001: STL - Warner
    2000: TEN - McNair

    I don't really want to Google each of of those guys individually but I don't see a ton of rookie contracts there. I see a bunch of Vets who (with a little good fortune) could've won the day and come out as Super Bowl victors. Maybe you can tell me more if you have the available data.
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    No I don't have that data without googling myself, but most of those vets probably weren't taking up a ton of cap space. Remember, it's not just rookie contracts, but also vets that took up a relatively small percentage of the cap that I listed. The average salary cap percent for a SB winning QB last 15 years is around 8% and it doesn't look like SB losing QB's were taking up more just eyeballing that.
     
  20. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
     
  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Darn, that timing couldn't be coincidental. That lawyer for the women is in a serious chess match.

    Note- filing a criminal complaint is not the same as a criminal investigation. Police are not required to investigate if they don't feel like there's enough there for them to look at. So this could be something or nothing.
     
  22. Ronnie Bass

    Ronnie Bass Luxury Box Luxury Box

    16,376
    10,864
    113
    Dec 19, 2007
    Maybe they can trade him to the Montreal Canadians, they might be interested (see who gets this).
     
  23. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,741
    9,813
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    While that is true, I think the Houston PD would have a hard time dismissing 10 separate criminal complaints without an investigation.
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Preston Williams posted a smiley face with zipped lips emoji today and media is speculating that it could have to do with Watson. That's completely stupid....but it's "breaking news".
     
  25. VManis

    VManis Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,741
    9,813
    113
    Nov 10, 2010
    More likely it had to do with him being put on the PUP.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  26. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

    7,929
    4,404
    113
    Feb 10, 2010
    Palm Bay Florida
    Please. Make It Stop.
     

Share This Page