I'll be brief and just post a few thoughts. 2021 NFL Mock Draft Here are the rules that I have placed upon myself. I do not forecast trades in the mock draft because things will quickly get out of hand. In a highly unpredictable setting, I choose to deal with certainties and not uncertainties. I have made my picks based on whom I think each team will take - not who they should take. I have also taken the liberty to grade the pick based on a multitude of different elements including, but not limited to: fit, value, and need. This being said, do not consider the draft grade necessarily a grade on the player. In order to help you understand my thought process, let’s consider one of the more intriguing draft prospects of the 2019 draft class, Kyler Murray. My general thoughts on Kyler Murray were that his size really did scare me. Despite exiting the combine with similar measurables to Russell Wilson, on the field, he looked much smaller. I truly worried that he may simply be too small to play the quarterback position. That being said, I do think that Murray has great athleticism and accuracy. His ability to improvise and put touch on his passes warrants a look from front office officials. In my mind, Kyler Murray was all about fit. First of all, with baseball constantly looming in the background, Murray needed to go to a place where he could play sooner rather than later. In my mind, developmental places like Pittsburgh, the LA Chargers, and New England were non-starters as Murray could have easily defected to baseball. I also thought that teams that wanted to run more traditional offenses would be best served to shy away from Murray. In my mind, a team like the Broncos, would have received an F because of scheme/offensive philosophy issues, and a team like the Chargers would receive a D because of the distinct possibility that Murray would choose to play in California, but for the Oakland A’s. On the opposite side of the coin, I thought teams that had creative head coaches that understood what Murray could and could not do, could excel with Murray. Moreover, drafting Murray requires a dramatic shift in team vision. I did not see Murray as a plug-and-play guy. I felt a team would need to build its roster around him. Instead of a powerful offensive line, a team would need mobile, finesse offensive linemen that could be an asset to a quarterback in motion. That being said, teams with coaching ingenuity like the Cardinals would score as high as a B for drafting Murray. The best way to handle this supplement is to look beyond the draft grade, read the blurb explaining the grade, and take that into consideration when viewing the actual team that drafts the player. 1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson Trevor Lawrence is a generational player and is an easy choice for the Jags at one. You could tell long before he was draft eligible that he was an NFL quarterback as he excelled against elite competition and in the biggest of moments. He has the height, but perhaps may be a little skinny, and the arm talent that most teams look for. Additionally, he is a highly accurate passer. I fully expect him to enter the league being on the top half of NFL starters. My only concern is that he needed to be more consistent at times. A+ 2. NY Jets – Zach Wilson, QB BYU As Robert Saleh and the Jets look to rebuild, they are in perfect position to land a franchise quarterback. I was amazed when I saw just how good Zach Wilson’s film was. Wilson has great size and a powerful arm much like many of the top prospects in this draft. What made Wilson stand out was his ability to throw into NFL sized windows while out of position. Watching Wilson throw dimes into windows that I think other college quarterbacks would not even attempt leads me to believe that he will be more ready than most quarterbacks entering the league. Additionally, I see a Pat Mahomes-like trait in Wilson. Wilson excels and does not seem to lose accuracy when throwing off balance or in less than perfect conditions. My only real concern with Wilson is that he does tend to hold the ball too long, and in the NFL, I think he is more apt to have to pay for this. A+ 3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, QB Alabama Before I get into the pick itself, I want to preface the trade that put the Niners at three. I feel like I am in the minority when I say that I like the fact that the Niners mortgaged the farm to move up. I think that they have built a solid foundation of a team and getting a franchise quarterback is far more valuable than providing additional talent around Jimmy Garoppolo. Legitimately, if San Francisco gets this pick right, I think they could be regularly going to Super Bowls. At this point, it seems like the pick is going to be Mac Jones. Let me tell you, if this is the pick, it will go down as the worst draft selection of all time. Move over Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell, there is a new sheriff in town. Sadly, for Mac Jones, this is not simply about him. This has much more to do with the compensation and who they are passing up. Four of the top five quarterbacks in this draft class are specimens – Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance. If the Niners landed anyone of these guys, I would give them an A. All of those guys are very high ceiling guys. Looking at Jones himself, I saw him as a second round kinda guy. Looking at his tape, I thought to myself, I could more or less copy my evaluation about Tua Tagovailoa, leave out the parts about the injury, and lessen the accuracy, and more or less, the analysis would be complete. Jones is essentially a one-year guy with low to average arm strength. He benefited from throwing to receivers even better than what Tua had. Most of his statistics could be attributed to RAC yards. Like all Alabama players, he benefited from having future pros all around him and threw from a clean pocket. Just looking at his predecessor, it is evident that throwing under pressure does not come easy. Tua’s passer rating under pressure was a staggering 45.6. Finally, Justin Fields, much to my extreme skepticism, has been the subject of criticism about his work ethic. For the first time ever when making a mock draft, I find it pertinent to include a picture. Does this look like a guy who is focused and putting in the work? F- 4. Atlanta Falcons – Justin Fields, QB The Ohio State University In my mind, this is where the draft really begins. The Falcons are going to have options with this pick. They could draft Matty Ice’s successor, draft a position player, or trade the pick. I think one way or another a quarterback gets taken here. I strongly think that the Falcons should absolutely draft a quarterback. The Falcons are a team that has vastly underperformed, and you could not convince me that they are a bottom five team. They could draft Ryan’s replacement today or find themselves in a situation like the 49ers currently are where they have to mortgage their future to move up and get a QB in a few years. Matt Ryan is currently 35 years old and set to make $48 million next year – essentially forcing the Falcons to trade, cut, or extend Ryan. Playing on the current deal is simply not an option. I also think extending a 35-year-old makes me nervous too. If his play suddenly dropped off, the Falcons could be on the hook for multiple years. Furthermore, I do think that there would be takers willing to give Ryan a new deal next year and willing to surrender a high draft pick to land him. This is where I think drafting Fields makes a lot of sense. Fields seems to be one of the most polarizing figures in this draft. So, let me begin by saying that it is no longer 1997. Athletic quarterbacks can essentially learn on the job at an MVP level to be NFL passers – see Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Like Jackson, I have witnessed Fields grow as a passer from one year to the next. He still does struggle with progressions, and he does like to throw what I have deemed “moon ball” slants that hang in the air to help gain accuracy. Certainly, he will not be able to get away with this at the next level. Fields does have a rocket for an arm and a smooth, but unorthodox release. Additionally, he has a thick frame and is a powerful runner. More importantly, Fields has demonstrated the ability to dominate and take over a game against elite competition. Conversely, Fields does have consistency problems where he dominates against elite competition, but underperforms seemingly sporadically. In my mind, returning to Georgia and sitting behind Ryan is an ideal situation. As a late update to this draft, it has been revealed that Fields is being treated for epilepsy, and this may more may not play a role in his draft position. A 5. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, LT Oregon At this point in the draft, the Bengals are starting to get calls with the last remaining quarterback (arguably for the next two years) still on the board. But do the Bengals trade the pick? No. Do the Bengals even know that you are allowed to trade picks? I am not sure. The most conservative franchise in the league has its quarterback of the future and is in prime position to build around him. They could reunite him with his former teammate, Ja’Marr Chase or give him a big receiving tight end to work the middle of the field with Kyle Pitts. Ultimately, conservative franchises wind up doing conservative things. In all honesty, I do think it works out. After Joe Burrow was sacked 32 times and was ultimately sidelined with a serious injury, the Bengals look no further than to Andrew Luck to see what happens when a team does not protect its franchise quarterback. Sewell is a historically good tackle prospect with elite strength and footwork. He has a meanness when moving down the field finding defenders and blocking at the next level. I would love to see this meanness transition in his pass blocking game. In fairness, that may be nitpicky as he has allowed one career sack. Sewell grades out as one of the most proficient linemen in history and is the complete package. Sewell should anchor the line for the next decade and give Burrow the protection he needs. A+ 6. Miami Dolphins – Kyle Pitts, TE University of Florida I have seen mock drafts and read about scenarios where Kyle Pitts could drop a bit in this draft. Let me be the first to tell you, if that scenario plays out or for draft gurus who simply cannot fathom a tight end going this early, the people that pass or advocate passing on Pitts simply do not understand football. I suspect these people are getting caught up on the fact that Pitts is a tight end – the ultimate luxury position. I considered listing his position as “Pass Catcher” in order to help people get out of that mindset. A team can line Pitts up wherever it wants, and he will be a matchup nightmare. In my mind, I thought Pitts should have won the Heisman last year. He was one of those rare players that simply looked different out there. He has elite speed, size, catching ability, and is difficult to bring down after the catch. He is an exceptional red zone target and really helps create mismatches over the middle. In the simplest terms, Pitts can dominate a game, and there is no easy answer for this problem. Pitts is the best tight end that I have ever scouted, and I think selecting him is akin to taking Travis Kelce or Tony Gonzales –absolutely worthy of the 6th pick. By selecting Pitts, the Dolphins add a can’t miss prospect that will really help Tua grow. Tua suffered from the inability to recognize the difference between a receiver being open in college as opposed to the NFL. Because of that, he often held the ball too long and took sacks. Pitts will be the remedy to this problem as he will clearly look open and have a size advantage over most defenders. You could see this most evidently when Tua began to hone in on Mike Gesicki’s ability to use his size and speed to create mismatches, and I think putting both of these players on the field at the same time could help create some interesting offensive concepts. Oh yeah, Pitts is not a great blocker. A+ 7. Detroit Lions – Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU This is an interesting spot in the draft. The Lions traded for Jared Goff, but I suspect part of the reason that the Lions got so much in return for Stafford was that they agreed to take Goff and his salary. I am not 100% convinced that the Lions feel strongly about Goff as their future, but problematically, he has a steep cap hit for the next two seasons. Again, the Lions could work a trade, but they have tons of draft picks in the future to address this area if Goff doesn’t pan out. Ultimately, I think the Lions do decide to avoid dysfunction by selecting Lance and bringing in another quarterback with Goff essentially stuck on their roster. Chase seems to have the talent to fit the void left by the Lions losing both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones. Ja’Marr Chase has a legitimate chance of giving Detroit another Calvin Johnson. He has elite size and quickness. His ability to break off the ball and move into a slant is one of the sweetest things that I have seen in this draft class. He has the frame to hold his position, pick the ball out of the air, and run up field. He has the ability to run a full complement of routes and has the upside to be a top receiver in the league, and an elite endzone target. In his final season at LSU, he caught 20 TDs in just 14 games. There is some criticism that his size is overstated, but he appears bigger than what he measures out at. He is also essentially a one-year player who played on a college team full of NFL talent, so some of the criticism about the sum of Alabama players being greater than the parts could be applicable to Chase in his champion LSU Tigers as well. A 8. Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, LT Northwestern The Panthers find themselves in a pragmatic situation. It was evident that the they wanted to move on from Teddy Bridgewater. Reading the tea leaves, I assume that they explored moves up the draft board but got priced out. This forced them to be economical and trade for Sam Darnold. Now, sitting at eight, they have Trey Lance available. They could select him and bring immediate disfunction to Carolina. Ultimately, they pass confirming Darnold is their future. Choosing Slater at eight does so much for the Panthers. It fills a need, helps protect Darnold, and plays to their strength in running the ball with Christian McCaffrey. Slater is a dominant force and is one of my favorite players in the draft. He is a powerful guy that went toe-to-toe with Chase Young at Ohio St. and won. He is an aggressive and cerebral player that moves up the field to find block and the next level. He is a finisher that plays whistle-to-whistle. A+ 9. Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, QB North Dakota St. In doing a mock draft without trades, unusual things tend to happen. But I suspect the biggest monkey wrenches thrown into the draft was Mac Jones going number three overall, and Carolina trading for Sam Darnold. Is it possible that one quarterback may slide because of this? It is possible. Lance and Fields seem to be cut from the same cloth. They are both big, strong, athletic guys with cannons for arms. Lance is a hard and aggressive runner much like his counterpart, Fields. Lance has demonstrated high success but versus lesser competition. Most notably, Lance has just one career interception. I imagine draft communities are divided on the third best quarterback in this draft. My reservations come from the aforementioned lesser competition, and the fact that Lance completed just over 200 passes in his entire career. With Lance, we are dealing with a guy who essentially had one good season at North Dakota. I think Denver is a great spot for Lance to fall to. He will not be required to start right away, and Drew Lock has the chance to bounce back from an injury riddled season. Despite John Elway no longer being the GM, he still looms within the building, and Lance seems to fit the mold Elway looks for in a quarterback. A 10. Dallas Cowboys – Patrick Surtain II, CB Alabama It is no secret that Jerry Jones had a pipe dream of landing Kyle Pitts with this pick, but unfortunately for him, reality sets in. The Cowboys have a strong nucleus on the offensive side of the ball, and they need to rehash the defense. The Cowboys ultimately select the second-best corner prospect in the draft who boasts a strong pedigree. If you combine being the son of an NFL player and spending time developing at Alabama under Nick Saban, the likelihood of making a smooth transition to the NFL increases. Surtain is a big corner whose play is rooted in his hands. By using his hands, he is apt to determine the direction of receivers, and he uses this to make up for his lack of top end speed. He has good ball skills and is able to cause turnovers. Like many of the more physical corners, I do worry that his style of play will result in penalties. I also wonder if speedier receivers may cause him problems at the next level. He has good ball skills and is able to cause turnovers. A- 11. NY Giants – Jalen Waddle, WR Alabama The Giants make the first surprise pick of the draft. With the Heisman trophy winner sitting in the green room, the Giants overanalyze the pick and select to take his teammate. The Giants realize that Daniel Jones is sitting on a lukewarm seat when they went out and signed Kenny Golladay to a big contract. They elect to double down and draft the speedy Jaylen Waddle. Many analysts speak of the “Big Three” in this year’s wide receiver draft class – Chase, Smith, and Waddle. I tend to disagree, and see the “Big Two,” and Waddle does not make the cut. While many in the draft community think of him as the next Tyreek Hill, I see him more as the next Ted Ginn. Waddle has speed to burn, but much like Ginn, it feels more like straight line speed. Waddle is not a pure pass catcher, and grades out worse than the speedster, Henry Ruggs, who left Alabama last season. Moreover, he a was worse blocker than his significantly smaller teammate, DeVonta Smith. C 12. Philadelphia Eagles – DeVonta Smith, WR Alabama The Giants make the first surprise pick of the draft. With the Heisman trophy winner sitting in the green room, the Giants overanalyze the pick and select to take his teammate. The Giants realize that Daniel Jones is sitting on a lukewarm seat when they went out and signed Kenny Golladay to a big contract. They elect to double down and draft the speedy Jaylen Waddle. Many analysts speak of the “Big Three” in this year’s wide receiver draft class – Chase, Smith, and Waddle. I tend to disagree, and see the “Big Two,” and Waddle does not make the cut. While many in the draft community think of him as the next Tyreek Hill, I see him more as the next Ted Ginn. Waddle has speed to burn, but much like Ginn, it feels more like straight line speed. Waddle is not a pure pass catcher, and grades out worse than the speedster, Henry Ruggs, who left Alabama last season. Moreover, he was worse blocker than his significantly smaller teammate, DeVonta Smith. A 13. LA Chargers – Christian Darrisaw, OT Virginia Tech The Chargers see Jaycee Horn available, and they need a corner. However, watching Joe Burrow suffer a serious injury in Cincinnati, they elect to play it safe and protect their franchise quarterback. Darrisaw is an interesting prospect because he seemingly has the tools to be great. He is a large human being who does have the athleticism to be successful at the next level. What bothers me about Darrisaw is that it seemed like he was just getting by on natural ability at the college level. My biggest complaint is that I think he is lazy. Looking at guys like Slater and Sewell, you see aggressive whistle-to-whistle play and a desire to move down the field and block at the next level. Darrisaw does not seem to want to do anything more than his assignment. Perhaps coaching at the next level can motivate him a little more. B 14. Minnesota Vikings – Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina Because five quarterbacks were taken off the board early, real talent slipped down the board. The Vikings are ecstatic to see my top cornerback prospect on the board. Minnesota will pair him with Patrick Peterson, who is probably year-to-year at this point in his career. Within a year, I fully expect Horn to emerge as a top corner on a team. Jaycee Horn is the son of star receiver, Joe Horn, but it appears that Jaycee has gone to the dark side and elected to play on the defensive side of the ball. Stylistically, I love how Horn plays. He is physical and aggressive. He will probably take a decent amount of penalties, but they are the type of penalties a team might be okay with giving up. Just looking at Horn, he passes the test. He is thick and long which allows him to make plays on the ball. He is a true alpha. A+ 15. New England Patriots – Micah Parsons, LB Penn State We are witnessing the downfall of the Patriots unfold live before our eyes as Bill Belichick is starting to realize that it’s hard to be a genius without the GOAT playing at a hometown discount. This offseason, the Patriots “revamped” their receiving corps by overpaying for average talent. The Patriots desperately want to find a replacement for Tom Brady, but seemingly are stuck with Cam Newton and Jarrett Stidham. Parsons does seem to fit what Belichick is best at – defense. Parsons seems to slide because of the quarterback run and concerns with character. Talentwise, Parsons has the size and ranginess to be a top backer in the league. He seemingly has the ability and skills to be a jack-of-all-trades on defense. He specializes in taking great angles at runners that often result in tackles for a loss. He can also be used as a pass rusher, and he has the talent to emerge as a coverage linebacker. I do think that this is a fantastic fit, but it does not address the elephant in the room. A+ 16. Arizona Cardinals – Caleb Farley, CB Virginia Tech. This is an interesting pick because I could see Kliff Kingsbury and the front office butting heads. This is a classic example of what you want to do vs. what you should do. I have long thought that Kingsbury has a little Mike Martz in him where his idea of playing defense is just scoring more points. The Cardinals were willing to slap the franchise tag on Kenyan Drake last year and pay him top dollar, so clearly there is value for the running back position in the building. The Cards have been mysteriously absent in contacting free agent running backs this offseason. I think they want to take Najee Harris. Ultimately, they choose to select the ultra-talented Caleb Farley to replace Patrick Peterson. Arizona gave Malcolm Butler a contract that does not exactly show that they believe in him as a number one corner. Behind Butler, the pantry is essentially empty. Farley opted out due to Covid which I completely understand, but I really wanted to see him come back to college and work to hone his skills. At the moment, I see him as an athlete that happens to play corner. He is a big corner with speed to burn that boasts elite recovery speed. That being said, he has poor body control and an inability to turn his head back to the ball which scares me a lot. I suspect that he is going to get picked on by cerebral quarterbacks that will underthrow passes to draw interference calls. I really think of Farley as a project at this point who might not be ready to get on the field week one. In a few years he could be developed, but I think that the Cardinals believe that they are in win-now mode after signing aging veterans like JJ Watt and AJ Green. C+ 17. Las Vegas Raiders – Alijah Vera-Tucker, G/T USC The Raiders have gone full circle from being a total mess to becoming a total mess. John Gruden was brought in to bring stability, but it seems like every year, they are drastically redoing their roster. Guys are being brought in and are shown the door in just one year – and in some cases less. There is little time to come together as a unit, and because of their philosophy, it appears like the line is a mess. Well, luck is a lady tonight for the Raiders. Vera-Tucker is one of my top prospects in the draft, but has fallen because he is best fit to play guard. He is an absolute mauler who continually wins at the point of attack. He is a mover of men with nastiness. He seemed to struggle in space, and because of that, I do not see him transitioning well to tackle where he will face faster rushers at the NFL level. With the Raiders having lots of need on the line, this seems to offer Vera-Tucker some flexibility in order to get on the field. Note – I really see him as a guard, and it would be a mistake for a team to draft him as a tackle. A+ 18. Miami Dolphins – Tevin Jenkins, T Oklahoma St. The Miami Dolphins are on the clock at 18 in no man’s land. Quarterbacks did push some top talent down the draft board, but that could only last for so long. The Dolphins should strongly consider taking Najee Harris here because he is a talent that fits a need. That being said, it still feels a bit early to draft a running back. Because the Dolphins have a lot of picks, they may not be as concerned as other teams with value. Oddly, there also has not been a single pass rusher selected, and that is at least a semi-need for the Dolphins. Problematically, the talent is just not that great this year at the position. Ultimately, I think the theme of this year is going to be Tua for the Dolphins. The Dolphins selected Austin Jackson in the first round of the draft and elected to keep him at left tackle. This time, they select the powerful Tevin Jenkins to protect Tua’s blindside. Jenkins is an effort guy and finishes every play. He is a mauler and dominates his opponents. Jenkins has shorter arms, and it has shown up on the tape where faster edge rushers have used it against him. A- 19.Washington Football Team – Jamin Davis, LB Kentucky The Washington Football Team finds itself in a situation similar to the Dolphins as it watches two stud linemen go off the board in rapid back-to-back picks. This is an area that they would really like to use a high draft pick on to get better, but picking a lineman now would be a bit of a reach. It sounds like Washington would like to package a slew of draft picks up for the second time in team history in order to draft a quarterback, but it feels like 19 is too far for some of the top teams to be willing to move down. Riverboat Ron ultimately decides to shake the dice on a man with only eleven career starts. Davis is a big linebacker with blazing speed who stands out on film. What impresses me the most about him is how he navigates through tacklers in order to find runners and make impressive tackles. Davis should be an interesting guy to watch on draft night because of his small sample size. I tend to think his measurables will probably warrant a mid-first round pick. A- 20. Chicago Bears – Greg Newsome II, CB Northwestern The Chicago Bears are a sinking ship. They have Andy Dalton and Nick Foles at quarterback, and in all likelihood, they do not have the ammo to trade up and grab a marquee quarterback. Allen Robinson is currently on the franchise tag, and will probably be gone next season, but it may be a bit early to grab a receiver. There hasn’t been a pass rusher selected yet, but the Bears have already committed enough resources at that position. The real problem is this has all the makings of “the year before a rebuild.” If the Bears underperform, Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace will both likely be out of a job. What almost inevitably happens in this situation? Teams get desperate. Nagy and Pace simply cannot draft a developmental player. Kyle Fuller was a cap casualty, and if the Bears plan on winning the division, they are going to need corner help. Newsome is a pretty solid prospect who is rangy and does a good job at making plays on the ball in coverage. Newsome has every bit the speed of top corners that get drafted in the first round and has solid technique. Problematically, he is another guy with a very small sample size playing in just 21 games with 18 starts. Some of his lost playing time was due to injury. That being said, he has the natural abilities and can play now in a position of need. B 21. Indianapolis Colts – Jaelen Phillips, EDGE Mami Realistically, the Colts are in a situation where they could go in one of two directions. Ideally, I think that they would like to draft a top left tackle here if they were to happen to fall. Because of the way things have shaken out, the go to Plan B, and they have their pick of pass rushers. This year, the position may not be elite, but they do come in all sorts of varieties. Ultimately, they choose to take the “blend guy” in Phillips. Phillips is “good” at a lot things, but is not great in anything. He is an athletic guy who looks like a linebacker on film. In my mind, he might actually be best served as playing an outside linebacker in a 3-4 schemes. He has good quickness and agility, and is good at closing in on the passer in order to make a sack. He is good at getting off the ball and has good enough power to be a good tackler. Frank Reich hopes that being “good” in enough categories can ultimately lead to becoming a great player. B 22. Tennessee Titans – Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina Mike Vrabel probably understands Ryan Tannehill better than every other coach in his career. Tannehill is not nor ever has been a talented enough player to lift up weaker players around him. That being said, when Tannehill is placed in a situation where there is talent around him, he is able to perform at a high level. Unfortunately for Vrabel, one thing that he is going to have to learn this offseason is the price of winning. Tannehill’s success has led to the poaching of a top receiving target as well as a tight end as both wound up getting grossly overpaid in the offseason. The Titans have brought in a sneaky good signing with Josh Reynolds who will serve to work the slot and at least semi-replace the production lost by Jonnu Smith. The Titans take a bit of a surprise pick with Dyami Brown. Brown reminds me a lot of Terrell Owens. He has a decent, but not elite blend of size and speed, but what makes him great is his ability to use his hands and body to get separation from defenders. Like Owens, Brown does not have the best hands, and he inexplicably drops passes. Brown is the type of receiver that will help Tannehill push the ball down field, but is still developmental in his route tree. B 23. New York Jets – Christian Barmore, DT Alabama Robert Saleh is a defensive mastermind who is expected to take what he learned building a defense in San Francisco to New York. Saleh is fully aware that much of his success with the Niners was predicated on his defensive line. Unfortunately for Saleh, the NFL has a way of teaching new head coaches tough lessons. In this case, Saleh is going to have to learn that just because you know the recipe for success, it does not mean the ingredients are available. There is no Nick Bosa in this draft. Heck, there is not a Javon Kinlaw, an Arik Armstead, or even a DeForest Buckner available in this year’s draft. Saleh finds the need to force the pick a bit and build through the interior defensive line. Barmore is a guy who is rising up draft boards because he is one of the few size interior linemen slated to go in the first round. Barmore seemingly has it all – the power, quickness for the position, and the aforementioned size. The problem is that I rarely saw it all come together at once. Those rare times in which it did happen were glorious, but too often, he was unable to disrupt play and overpower blockers like his Alabama compadre, Quinnen Williams. I worry that if Nick Saban was not able to unleash this nastiness in him, Saleh probably won’t either. Moreover, I was concerned how often he was subbed out of games and what exactly the reason was for this. C+ 24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah, DE Notre Dame I once listened to an interview with Pat Kirwan that has stayed with me. A caller asked him why some teams do not offer older players with long histories with one particular franchise a discount contract instead of just letting them walk. Kirwan’s response startled me. He said, if you offer aging players a reduced contract, they might take it. I think that sentiment might be pertinent in this situation. I wonder aloud what many people may be thinking in their heads, “Should the Steelers have moved on from Ben Roethlisberger this year?” In doing so, they could have resigned Bud Dupree. The problem with getting the band back together for one more season, is they are committed to winning now (I don’t want to spoil the ending, but it doesn’t happen), and they really cannot explore trade ups to get Big Ben’s successor. Moreover, the real discussions should be where guys like Kyle Trask, Davis Mills, and Kellen Mond would stack up compared to next year’s weak quarterback class. Alas, the Steelers try to give Roethlisberger one more shot at a ring and draft an interesting player in Jeremiah Owusu-Kormoah. I firmly believe that he looks like top a 15 pick, but he could very easily slide out of the first round altogether. Owusu-Kormoah looks like a Steelers’ linebacker. He is cut from the mold of Ryan Shazier, TJ Watt, and Bud Dupree. He is super athletic for a big man and has exceptional speed especially when closing in on a ball carrier. Here is the problem. He just misses tackles – often. I don’t like stating the obvious in my analysis, but that is a big problem for linebackers. I also worry that if it hasn’t been corrected at this point in his career, is it ever going to get corrected? If Tomlin can correct this, the Steelers could have a real value here. B- 25. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevon Moehrig, S TCU The story on draft night will be “Jacksonville’s turnaround,” but let me tell you, they are further along than most pundits realize, and I firmly believe that they have a ton of flexibility at this pick. I think that their roster is well-constructed and better than people realize. The Jaguars find themselves in a great position where there is a ton of value at a position of need. Trevon Moehrig is a raw talent but is super athletic. Although he does not have the elite speed that usually lifts a safety to the first round, he is fast enough. He may be getting knocked because of a poor forty time at his pro day, but it appears that a back surgery is still lingering. He has a certain meanness and the size to develop into a Legion of Boom type player. I think the Jaguars get exceptional value at this point in the draft. A- 26. Cleveland Browns – Kwity Paye, DE Michigan The window of opportunity is currently open, and it is evident by the one-year rental of Jadeveon Clowney that the Browns are trying to make a Super Bowl run this year. The Browns see this as an opportunity to draft a talented developmental prospect that can back up the often-injured Clowney. A lot of scouts would be surprised to see Paye around this late in the draft and would consider this to be a value pick. I am reluctant to say that I would agree. I do think that Paye is exceptional at run support and could provide an immediate impact as a role player. He is cerebral and workmanlike at setting the edge. He understands how a defensive play is meant to unfold and his role within the play. Here is my problem with Kwity Paye. He is just not a good pass rusher. Two years ago, he had a career best 6.5 sacks. In an abridged season, he only had two sacks – both in the same game. He struggles to win battles with tackles and oftentimes is enveloped by blockers taking him out of the play altogether. The reality of the situation is that I have a hard time justifying drafting a run stopping defensive end in a pass heavy league this early. Perhaps the Browns view him as a way to mitigate Lamar Jackson. C+ 27. Baltimore Ravens – Reshod Bateman, WR Minnesota The Ravens decided to pair Hollywood Brown with Sammie Watkins this season. I think that having a big body receiver could really play well with Lamar Jackson, but the problem is Watkins gets hurt a lot, and he simply cannot be expected to last a season. I think that the Ravens have done a terrific job in developing Jackson, but at times, I have scratched my head when trying to figure out their passing game. Drafting Hollywood Brown was a clear indicator that they want to push the ball down field, but much of Jackson’s success has come to bigger tight ends. Bateman’s size has been overstated, but I do think he can begin his career as a slot guy, and eventually replace Watkins as a boundary guy. Bateman ran a lot of slants and posts and excelled in finding open spots in zone coverage. I would have liked to see Bateman extend his route tree to include deeper sideline routes. I think that he will be a good fit in Baltimore. B 28. New Orleans Saints – Kadarius Toney, WR Florida If I am Sean Payton, I am on the phone with the Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars to see if they are willing to trade back up in to the first round to select a player and gain that coveted fifth year option. The Saints are in the process of getting out of salary cap hell, and I expect even more departures from high priced veterans next year. The Saints are in need of cheap, young players and acquiring more draft picks would expedite the process. The one thing that makes the Saints different from teams like the Patriots and the Steelers is that you can see a clear organizational plan for life after Drew Brees. I think Plan A is Taysom Hill, and I expect to see more of a college style offense designed around his athleticism. Kadarius Toney was shocked to see worse receivers go ahead of him based on fit. Toney is a super athletic slot receiver that moonlights in the backfield and is likely to get a few carries per game. I firmly believe that Sean Payton is smart enough to find multiple ways to get the ball in his hands. Toney is twitchy and incredibly agile with blazing speed. Hill does not have good deep ball accuracy, and I expect the Saints to try and make big plays that are predicated on RAC yards. I think Toney would be an incredible fit in New Orleans. A 29. Green Bay Packers – Terrace Marshall Jr., WR LSU The Packers seem to be in a state of limbo. I spent a good portion of this supplement bashing teams for not preparing for the exodus of an aging quarterback. The Packers seemingly saw the writing on the wall last year, and drafted Jordan Love. And what was the result? Of course, Aaron Rogers balled out and won the MVP. It seems like this has caused a bit of a kerfuffle between the Packers and Rogers. I think the Pack try and repair the situation by doing what they seemingly have been neglecting for years – get Rogers some talent. Marshall was highly touted out of high school, and his recent pro day showed why he was thought so highly of. He is a big receiver with elite speed who is built to play on the boundary. He is an exceptional red zone target. I think the Packers look to pair him with Adams and give Rogers the tools to be successful. What bothers me the most about Marshall is that he never really dominated. He has never caught 50 passes in a season, and you can’t really blame scheme either. Both Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson feasted during their national championship run. Perhaps, there were not enough balls to go around. With Chase opting out for covid concerns, 2020 was set to be a big opportunity for Marshall. Yes, he now had to face better corners with less talent at quarterback, but it feels to me like Marshall has a lot of excuses. I just get the feeling that he is getting drafted on talent alone (which he has), and the thought is that somehow having Rogers as his quarterback will fix everything. C+ 30. Buffalo Bills – Najee Harris, RB Alabama The Bills have really built a solid foundation, and they are in prime position to select the best player available. Fate seems to be on their side when Najee Harris falls to them. I think that Harris to Buffalo would be an ideal fit. Alabama has pretty consistently produced starting caliber running backs, and Harris seems to be the next on that list. Harris reminds me a lot of Le’Veon Bell coming out of college. He is a patient, powerful runner with a good burst, but does not have top end speed. Harris is exceptionally athletic, and like Bell, a solid pass-catcher. One of the trends in this year’s drafts is Alabama players flexing their muscle at the draft process. Harris has refused to run a 40-yard dash, and critics say that his 40 time is around 4.6. I would not be surprised to see Javonte Williams be the first running back off the board if this is a consensus amongst NFL team. I also wonder what would happen if Harris landed on a team with a weaker offensive line more so than with other running backs. A lot of his game is built on patience, and if holes simply do not open up, it could be problematic. A 31. Baltimore Ravens – Azeez Ojulari, EDGE Georgia The Ravens have jumped back into the first round after trading Orlando Brown to the Chiefs. It is possible that the Ravens may look to draft another offensive lineman to replace Brown, but it does feel like they are not exactly thrilled with their pass rush either. Ultimately, I think they look to continue to reinvest in their defense. If you have made it this far in my mock draft, it is not at all a surprise when I say that the edge guys are not very good this season. That being said, if you told me that I had to choose one guy, it would be Azeez Ojulari. If you squint with one eye, you can sort of see the edge talent that I have grown accustom to seeing in the first round. I would call Ojulari powerful, but more importantly, he does have a good burst off the line and is able to accelerate into the quarterback. I do see him as more of a pass rush specialist which is essentially what I really want to get out of my ends. B 32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Zaven Collins, OLB Tulsa With an aging Tom Brady and a weak quarterback class next year, the Bucs gotta be thinking that it would hardly even be a reach to grab a second-round quarterback now and stash him on their roster, right? Absolutely not. I have never seen an organization more in win-now mode than the Buccaneers. Bruce Ariens is not interested in grooming a young quarterback, and I firmly believe that he and Tom Brady will eventually ride off into the sunset together. This is the case study of getting the band back together. Nobody elected to break the bank in free agency, and the team really does not have a pressing need. The Bucs find a lot of value at a position that is easy to get onto the field but probably more as a role/depth type player. I like Collins, and it feels like this might be a bit late for him to go off the board. I would not be surprised if a late-round team that I projected taking a receiver chose to snag Collins instead. I was shocked to see just how big of a guy Collins is. Watching him fly around the field with nimble feet, I expected a much lighter player, but the guy measured in at 6’5’’ 259 lbs. I think he is at his best running toward the line as he takes great angles to track down runners. This could wind up being one of the bigger steals of the draft. B+ Big Board 1. Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson 2. Kyle Pitts, TE Florida 3. Penei Sewell, LT Oregon 4. Zach Wilson, QB BYU 5. Rashawn Slater, LT Northwestern 6. Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU 7. Micah Parsons, LB Penn St. 8. Jaycee Horn, CB South Carolina 9. Patrick Surtain Jr., CB Alabama 10. Alijah Vera-Tucker, G USC Top Quarterbacks 1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 2. Zach Wilson, BYU 3. Justin Fields, The Ohio State University 4. Trey Lance, North Dakota St. 5. Mac Jones, Alabama Order in Which the QBs Will be Drafted 1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson 2. Zach Wilson, BYU 3. Mac Jones, Alabama 4. Trey Lance, North Dakota St. 5. Justin Fields, The Ohio State University Two Most Overrated Players (True Value in Parenthesis) 1. Mac Jones (2nd) 2. Gregory Rousseau* (3rd) 3. Caleb Farley (2nd) *- Although, I do not have him slated to go in the first round, I suspect that someone will take him in the first. 10 years from now, we will say the best player in the draft in the draft was Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson. 10 years from now, we will say the biggest first round bust was Mac Jones, QB USC. The annual hidden gem of the draft is Chuba Hubbard, RB Oklahoma St. Odds and Ends Quarterback is probably the most important position in all of sports, and this year has four fantastic prospects – Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, and Lance. I really think teams to need to take a much longer-term approach in evaluating this position. Next year is going to be a weak year, and if you are team in need of a quarterback, moving up may be prudent. I think that the Niners mortgaging the farm to move up really was the right decision. That being said, they may have had the best plan with the worst execution. Wanna talk about the second most important position in football? Edge guys. This really isn’t a great year to need an edge player. None of these guys really excited me. My advice to teams, especially in terms of the first round, would really to be to look to areas of strength in the draft. So where are the areas of strength? Quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line, corner I like to help educate my readers, and I think I need to partake in the annual beating of a dead horse. One of the worst byproducts of mock drafts is that we tend to have this very linear ranking of players at positions. Now, reporters will report that different teams have different rankings of players. I believe that this sheds the individual teams’ rankings under false light. Different teams run different schemes or are looking for different roles or types of players. This is the primary reason for the discrepancy. For example, if a team really coveted a run-support edge guy, I would tell them that the edge guy in this year’s draft is Kwity Paye. Conversely, if another team wanted a pure pass rusher, I would tell them that Azeez Ojulari is the best edge guy in the draft. I liken the process to comparing different flavors of ice cream. I think that the positions with the most unique favors this year are edge guys and receivers. I long for the day that the slot receiver is seen by the draft community as its own unique and valuable position. A genuine question that I have is, “How will having an incredibly small number of games played affect players on draft day?” I think that this has the potential to drastically shake up the draft board in ways many pundits do not quite comprehend. Because of Covid opt outs and shortened schedules, there are a lot of guys slated to go early that have not played a lot of college football. I gotta believe that some teams will shy away from players like this. The question is, “How many?” I really like the North Carolina running backs. I think that because the position has been devalued, this is being undersold. It is entirely possible that Javonte Williams will be the best back in the draft, and Michael Carter could really wind up being a difference maker. This reminds me of Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams sharing a backfield in Auburn and being good NFL players in their own right. As I started doing my research to find my annual hidden gem, I seemingly uncovered a bigger storyline than I had expected. I had previously alluded to a vast discrepancy in the individual team rankings of players this year. I had no idea that various scouts could have such vastly different rankings. There is a tackle from Stanford that I really like named Walker Little. He was hurt two years ago, and didn’t play this year. I think that he has the size, strength, quickness, and agility to make for a solid left tackle. In my mind, he is a late first/early second round guy. Based on my research, it is also entirely possible that he is a fifth-round pick. Walker is one of many examples of guys that there are really extreme differences of opinions in. I really think that this may serve to be the most highly unpredictable drafts on record.
Just like I don't subscribe to the theory that 6 is too early to take a TE, especially one of Pitt's calibre, I don't believe that 18 is too early to take a RB either. If a player has the talent and there's a need, take him before someone else does.
