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#3 pick...

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Jersey Dolfan, Jan 3, 2021.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. just to put you on the spot too for that claim, which posters are you talking about? The Guy and KeyFin already said they aren't examples, and I told you long ago I wasn't either (I only turned against Tannehill in year 3).

    So which posters are you referring to that were against Tannehill but are now for Tua using the same arguments? This has to be restricted to rookie year of course. Otherwise it's not a fair comparison.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think the situations are very similar in that the cause(s) of the QB's performance at this point in his career isn't able to be determined reliably, and so the effect of changes in the QB's surroundings is unknown. After 2012 there were lots of people saying "get Tannehill an offensive line and some weapons," yet it couldn't be known with certainty how that would affect his performance. Theoretically it would affect it positively, but there was no certainty it would make him the elite QB the team had attempted to draft.

    We have about the same situation going on here with Tua. Theoretically "weapons" would improve his performance, but the degree to which it would is unknown because again we can't reliably determine how much of his 2020 performance to attribute to him versus his surroundings.
     
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  3. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Andy Reid.
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nah.. he got it right only 2 times: McNabb and Mahomes.

    Other QB's drafted while he was HC: Feeley, Hall, Kolb, Kafka, Foles, Murray, Hogan.

    Many of those were never meant to be starters, but at least 2 you can't dismiss: Kolb and Foles. Kolb was a 2nd rounder and after they traded McNabb he started. Didn't work out. Foles was taken in the 3rd round and also started. Didn't work out. Also, Reid like almost everyone else missed out on Wilson who he could have taken in 2012 instead of Foles.

    In FA he took Vick and Smith. Vick was only good one year, and Smith was a known commodity and didn't get better once he went to KC until 5 years later when they drafted Mahomes (lol.. THEN he played really well).

    Overall that's not a good record. He had 2 successes with most of the rest failures. Have to admit though that 2 successes is more than most HC's, but this is FAR from being consistently good with QB evals.
     
  5. Fishhead

    Fishhead Well-Known Member

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    Brett Favre thinks Jacksonville should take Smith over Lawrence because “he’s the next Moss or Rice” and Quinnen Williams wants the Jets to take Smith over a qb. Neither is an NFL scout or talent evaluator, but...maybe this guy IS worth taking at #3.
     
  6. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Because so many teams are interested in the Top 3 QB's and we have the 3rd selection overall, I actually think the trade back options might be really good for us.
     
  7. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    I actually think if we fail to trade back from #3 and #18 there is a really good chance these will be our picks, followed by a WR on our 2a selection.
     
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  8. Pennphinphan

    Pennphinphan AKA Pennphinfan but I forgot my login

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    Especially now with the Lions entering the QB game. You could now see the panthers, eagles, lions all trying to jump Atlanta at 4.

    Will be interesting to see. If the lions end up getting the Colts or 49ers 1st rounder for Stafford, would we take that and #7 for our #3?
     
  9. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Yes, all day long. According to the trade value chart, we’d be giving up 700 for that move. Both Indy and SF’s 1st would more than make up for that.

    We’d still be there in a position to take one of the top 2-3 WR’s plus could address RB, LB, Edge or OL with our other 2 1sts.
     
  10. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I'd probably look into future assets more than tripling up on first rounders again. Spreads the cap hits out a bit more and gives us continued flexibility going foward. The seventh would be a great spot to work with - you will likely still have 2-3 of Smith, Chase, Sewell, Pitts and Parsons sitting there.
     
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  11. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I'd take Stafford and #7 for our #3.
     
  12. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a bad deal. Stafford is merely average, or at best slightly above. He's no solution at QB, and we shouldn't be wasting the equivalent of a low 1st rounder on a QB that we KNOW is average. If that's the option I'd prefer to get Detroit's 1st next year and see what Tua can do in 2021. If Tua fails, then you have 2 1sts to grab another QB prospect.
     
  13. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Stafford has been on a very bad team and still done better than he should have.
     
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    How do we know? It's not like he hasn't had big offensive weapons in his career. You know he did have Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate and yet the offense was in most years average, just like him.

    Either way, he's clearly not a solution at QB. Not sure who in the NFL thinks if they just had Stafford they'd solve their QB problem. A low 1st this year or a 1st next year (knowing Detroit it will probably be in the upper half of the 1st round) is MUCH more valuable than Stafford.

    Absolute no to Stafford in a trade for me.
     
  15. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Get real. The Niners, the Broncos, the team formerly known as the Redskins, the Eagles, the Bears, the Patriots...
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah for those teams an average QB is a pretty big upgrade! That doesn't mean they think Stafford is a franchise QB.
     
  17. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    If any of them offer to give up a first-rounder for him, they do.
     
  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol not even close.

    Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Brad Johnson, and many many other average QB's were traded for a 1st. That's more like par for the course for "average" QB's like Stafford.
     
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    That's in hindsight. At the time, those QBs were considered to be franchise QBs. And Brad Johnson won a SB.
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Sorry no. Those QB's were considered at best average at the time of the trade.

    And Tampa won the SB with their defense. Their offense was ranked 18th while their defense was #1.
     
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  21. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Yeah no, they were not considered average by the teams who traded for them. And Brad Johnson had more to do with the Bucs winning their SB than Trent Dilfer did with the Ravens winning theirs.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Based on what? Mind reading? Carson Palmer was statistically average both before and after his trade. He lasted only 2 years in Oakland. That's what you think a "franchise QB" is? Bradford played on 4 teams. Hardly a "franchise QB" and was clearly at best average before the trade. Johnson played on 5 teams lol.. "franchise QB".

    You're simply vastly undervaluing QB's. An average QB often is traded for a 1st. Look at how much draft capital teams give up just for the chance to draft a true franchise QB! Many times it's multiple 1sts.

    And while you're right about Johnson having more to do with the Bucs winning their SB than Dilfer for the Ravens, that's about the lowest bar you can set. Point is, Stafford is an average QB and we shouldn't be giving up a low 1st for one of those.
     
  23. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    Whatever. No point in arguing with you if you're going redefine your terms to match your opinion.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol.. I didn't redefine anything. I simply pointed out you were wrong about claiming that giving up a 1st is evidence the QB is better than average (up to that point). And you implicitly agreed "franchise" means "above average" in posts like post #300.
     
  25. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    If we go WR at #3, do you prefer Chase or Smith? I’ve heard rumors that Waddle is as fast as Hill. If he puts up a crazy time, do you consider him there?
     
  26. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I'd
    I'd take Smith, given those choices. But my real preference is to wait until #18 to take a WR.
     
  27. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Stafford is old, injury-prone and has spent a long time not winning jack **** while being prone to making back-breaking mistakes at big times.

    For a team like the Colts, Steelers or Niners, he would represent a viable upgrade, and be worth something in the range of a second or first rounder. For a team with a young QB like us? No.
     
  28. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    You like Bateman or Toney as much as the other 3? Or just value other positions higher at 3? Wish there was a dominant defensive player available there.
     
  29. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I'd take Sewell at 3.
     
  30. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    Other than the near impossible situation that QB T. Lawrence slid to #3 overall, I really don't see us passing on Sewell. Jackson could then move to RT and we could make Kindley, Flowers, or Hunt our OG's. I think Hunt is better at RG than RT.
    The only other way I could see us not draft Sewell is a great trade back offer. This is what I'm hoping for and then I'd like to draft WR D. Smith 1a. I also like CB Surtain.
     
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  31. flounder97

    flounder97 Well-Known Member

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    upload_2021-1-27_8-26-19.jpeg
    It may not be overly realistic, but damn it would be a dynamic offense.
     
  32. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot said the team would "bring in" quarterbacks this offseason.

    It's not exactly a stunning admission, but it confirms that the Falcons are rightfully thinking about life after Matt Ryan, who will be 36 in May. Ryan, who is signed through the 2023 season, will count for $40.9 million against the salary cap in 2021, making him an unlikely cut candidate even if the Falcons draft his eventual replacement with the fourth pick in this spring's NFL Draft. "You always bring in quarterbacks," Fontenot said. "You need to bring in quarterbacks, whether it's in the draft, whether it's in free agency, or signing guys off the street. It's so important, bring in quarterbacks a lot, build strengths." Atlanta could sign a serviceable backup for Ryan if they don't take a QB with their No. 4 pick. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Tyrod Taylor are among this offseason's free agent signal callers.

    Source: NFL.com

    Feb 16, 2021, 10:09 AM ET


    Really think Miami is in a great spot at #3. Teams that are QB needy are going to want to talk to us about that pick. It could become quite valuable on draft day.
     
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  33. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    My ideal situation:
    1. Trade back to somewhere between 5-10, then take Chase, Smith or Parsons depending on who’s there
    2a. If we go receiver and have to stay put, take Ja’Marr Chase
    2b. If we don’t go WR, take Sewell and dominate the trenches
    3. Devonta Smith
     
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  34. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    Yup, pretty much how I'm thinking too.

    :up:
     
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  35. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    What would you want to move back to 5-10 in terms of compensation?
     
  36. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    Depending on how far back we move, swap #1’s, 2021 2nd rounder and a 1st/2nd/3rd next year.
     
  37. The G Man

    The G Man Git 'r doooonnne!!!

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    That's a truly great question. Not only because it got me thinking about what I'd want if I was the GM, but also because it got me looking more closely at the teams sitting at picks 5 through 10. And honestly, I just don't see any of them moving up for a QB. Carolina has Bridgewater who is average, Denver probably thinks the jury is still out on Lock, and Dallas will franchise Dak for 2021. I could see either Carolina and Denver being players for Watson (and maybe Wilson too if the trade rumors swirling around him are true). But, barring a blockbuster trade, I don't know if either franchise sees enough value in coming up to #3 to draft a QB. And, who would that QB be if Lawrence and Fields go #1 & #2? Wilson? Lance? Jones? Are any of them worth moving up for? IDK man.

    Looking at it more closely, WFT makes the most sense as being the most QB needy team down stream, and they're sitting at pick #19. Not an ideal trade partner if you're looking to still get a blue chip player in this draft.

    JMHO.
     
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  38. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

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    Looks like the trade market for our pick is about to heat up.
     
  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    The Panthers definitely want to upgrade, they've been involved with every QB trade so far this off-season. Same with Denver- they've been active in talks for multiple quarterbacks (including Watson).
     
  40. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    For the Panthers, now is the draft to grab a young QB and try to mold him into your franchise guy. The still relatively new head coach has time to work with new QB, before the fans and media start to clamor loudly for winning seasons. Can you imagine finally bringing in a rookie QB in the THIRD year of a new head coach (after seeing the current QB simply isn't good enough the first two years) and having to wait another three years to see the kid develop (or NOT develop as the case may be)?

    If Carolina believes in Fields and/or Wilson, they need to make a move and get their guy. No one will complain about the cost of moving up if the QB pans out.
     

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