1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Is Washington now our best bet to trade down in Rd1?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Etrius24, Jan 31, 2021.

  1. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    based on this report they went all in for Stafford and did not get him

    https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-washingtons-offer-matthew-stafford-034546551.html

    So if they offered as much or more for Staford the offer for the #3 pick should be delicious.

    I am thinking the #19 pick the second-round pick this year and the first-round pick next draft.

    In this Scenario we Sign Robinson as a free agent.... draft Harris and Bolton in Rd 1 Then draft three building blocks in rd 2.... Moehrig Humphrey and Moore

    That gives us the building blocks to have a top 10 Offensive line... a top workhorse RB... a slot receiver... a top free agent outside receiver.... Tua has no excuses now with this group...

    Bolton is one of the smartest players in the draft and will be a very good MLB... Moehrig has elite safety written all over him... Ball hawk with centerfielder skills... plus size and speed.

    And a year from now we would have 2 first round picks again!!! I cannot stress that enough.... taking advantage of the affordable years of Tua's career.
     
    DolphinGreg likes this.
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Washington picks at #19. Based just on the trade value chart that's 1,325 points to make up after swapping 1sts. Those 1,325 points correspond to something like a 2nd in 2021, a 1st in 2022, and a 1st in 2023. I wouldn't do a trade with Washington for anything except a MASSIVE haul, and I really mean much more than that because there should be a bidding war for QB.
    https://walterfootball.com/draftchart.php

    It's always great to perennially have 2 1sts, but you can do that with a much smaller trade down to #7-9 or so: Detroit, Carolina and Denver all want a QB. Such a trade down is worth a low 1st THIS year and with a bidding war much more.

    So unless we really fleece Washington I'm against trading down that far because we probably lose our shot at Smith or Chase, and ultimately it's not the number of high draft picks that matter it's the players you pick with them.
     
    PhinFan1968 and KeyFin like this.
  3. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Brad

    If you can squeeze a couple of extra picks out Washington like a third this year and a second next year.... So be it.

    As to your other point about not getting chase or Smith trading down to 19... Okay but getting Bolton is pretty special... and trusting flores and the front office to make smart picks with three in the second round is central to my logic on this sort of move. I trust them to grab Moehrig, Humphrey and Moore and then I trust Flores to coach the sh*t out of them and turn them into football players.

    Sign Robinson and Samuel at receiver... trade a third to the texans for Watt... restructure his contract.... And push to get to the AFC championship game against the Chiefs this year.
     
  4. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    by the way?

    I noticed the typo in the thread title... I did not decipher as to how to correct the spelling mistake

    Help?
     
  5. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    Top of the thread, at the right-hand side. "Thread Tools":

    upload_2021-1-31_13-18-58.png

    Click it then click 'Edit Thread' and you can change the name.
     
    Etrius24 likes this.
  6. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    thank you
     
    canesz06 and Galant like this.
  7. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    I’d expect more than a 2nd and a 3rd to trade back that far but generally speaking, I share your sentiment. If we could get a 2nd and 3rd this year plus a 1st next year, I’d do that every day of the week.

    As much as I’d love to see Smith, Sewell or Chase in a Dolphins uniform, I’d rather see 4 high quality players being coached by Flores. Considering the hit rate of 1st round picks vs 2nd rounders, I like having 3-4 at bats vs 1.
     
    Etrius24 likes this.
  8. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    I agree completely.
     
  9. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Washington is too far to move imo, you still want one of those elite talents and 19 is too far.

    It all depends on how Wilson, Fields and Lance perform leading up to the draft. If they are looking good, it might create enough buzz to get teams like Denver and Carolina interested. Maybe Dallas or San Fran too, that's getting to the edge of where I'd want to end up. You still likely can get one of Smith, Chase or Pitts there, with Waddle a fallback, or a dude like Parsons. Shame that defensively the biggest names are all CBs.

    I'd also be seeing if the Eagles want to jump the Bengals for Sewell, though they may be happy to sit and take a WR.
     
  10. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Texan

    Yes you have a point... but

    Elite players every year come from the draft outside of a top 5 pick

    If we trust Flores and his coaches to evaluate and scout talent and then to coach them up... getting additional picks at the top of the draft could reap massive rewards.
     
  11. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    They do, but the odds are best when you pick among the best talent. Would you rather have Kyle Pitts, or dig through the trash pile trying to find the diamond in the rough? I'm in favor of a trade down, but I'd want to stay in the top half of the draft, preferably the top 10. Going from 3 to 19 is a massive difference.
     
  12. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,892
    62,937
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    Washington is a possibility. But only as the second, or even third time that we move down in the first round. The very furthest that I would drop as a first move would be to SF at #12. But I'd really like to see what we can get from the Bengals at #5 first.
     
  13. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    I wouldn't trade with Washington. Too far down the list.
     
    tirty8 and texanphinatic like this.
  14. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    I wouldn't be shocked if the Lions try to trade up into the first three picks for a QB now.
     
  15. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    I think the Dolphins will want to retain a top ten pick. Top 15 worst case.

    There are several options.
     
  16. Pennphinphan

    Pennphinphan AKA Pennphinfan but I forgot my login

    135
    82
    28
    Dec 25, 2016
    If anything i think this creates even more trade opportunity for us. The rams were never going to trade up to 3 anyway. The lions may now want that pick for non qb reasons and have a ton of capital to use to move up if they so desire.

    Should have suitors at 3 for sure
     
  17. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    I don't see them trading up for a non-QB. The only non-qb worth trading up for early is Sewell perhaps, and they have a solid LT they paid a lot of money to. They can sit tight and take a WR, a second tier LT or a defender. Or - if they don't move up for QB - they may explore trading back. They entered this draft with 5 picks, and even with the Stafford trade now only have 6, and lot of holes.

    Goff gives them the ability to wait on QB if they want to or feel this year's QBs aren't worth trading for. They can try and assemble at least some talent before bringing in a rookie. They will have 2 first rounders in 2022 and 2023, and will likely still be bottom 10 bad.
     
    Pennphinphan likes this.
  18. Pennphinphan

    Pennphinphan AKA Pennphinfan but I forgot my login

    135
    82
    28
    Dec 25, 2016
    Good points hard to argue that. They can def go BPA.

    Campbell is a TE guy yah? Wonder what they'd think about Pitts at their current spot too.
     
  19. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Not a chance. They drafted TJ Hockenson two years ago at 8. He just made the probowl and looked very good after his very disappointing rookie year. Spending another top 10 pick on a TE would be nuts, especially in this town which has a weird history with highly taken TEs (see Eric Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew).

    They are much more likely to take a WR since they probably will lose both Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay, or a defender since their defense is more of a figment of imagination rather than a real, tangible thing. The Alabama lineman might be a solid pickup, though 7's potentially high for him. Parsons is another guy they could look at. Personally, if they aren't in on a QB trade up, they will try hard to trade down for more picks due to the huge need they have for talent. Not unlike us two seasons ago.
     
  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Yep, that 3 pick is much more valuable than the proposed trade. For a drop to 19 I'm asking for 1st/2nd picks for 3 years.
     
  21. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    3 first and 3 seconds .... I think that is a little insane. I mean I would love to see the Dolphins fleece them that badly... I do not see it happening. I see no precedent... I could see an argument for that many picks if you were trading up to get Trevor Lawrence... Maybe... Not the third pick.... And even for the #1 pick I think three #1's and three #2's would be considered a very steep price to pay to move up.

    Just me I guess???
     
  22. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Could be steep, ya, but ya gotta start somewhere. Somewhere between there and a 2021 2nd and 2022 1st.
     
  23. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,141
    2,337
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Yeah, I am thinking the same thing. They have plenty of draft ammo now, and Goff can be the bridge QB while they get Wilson or Fields ready to play in 2022. I can see the Lions offering the Ram's third rounder and 2022 first rounder to move up to #3. Maybe even a bit more if Miami has other offers.
     
    Rick 1966 likes this.
  24. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    I see the lions going after someone like Trey Lance who could use a year of development... Athletically he is as talented as any Qb in this draft... and a potential Watson clone someday... But he only started a limited number of games and missed last year because of Covid... Someone is going to scoop this kid up... I think he has the chance to be special. I have been on the Trey Lance train for a couple of years now... I think he will end up better than Fields
     
  25. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    I think Fields is going to be a bust.
     
  26. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    I still like fields...

    Just prefer Lance... Since the time the kid picked up a football he has made plays. He had this uncanny knack of not turning the football over and scoring tons of touchdowns.
     
  27. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    3,739
    3,770
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    Teams were trying to get Stafford (and Watson and Wentz) because they want to upgrade from capable Tier 2 QBs, not because their current QBs stink. Rookies are exciting but unreliable so giving a haul of assets when your current signal caller isn't bad can set you back for years if the kid doesn't pan out.

    Panthers might trade if they're convinced that both we or the Falcons are looking at QB. The Falcons are going to try to convince teams they're selecting a QB to get a good trade but they can't trade until we trade or pick. Behind us, Cincinnati, Philly, Detroit and New York are set at QB. Carolina, Denver, Dallas and San Francisco all might be willing to trade up. Then, there are also Minnesota and New England in the middle of the round.
     
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2021
  28. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    I think the lions are at #7 and the Panthers are at #8? I could have them mixed up though?
     
  29. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,878
    4,832
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Not necessarily. The WFT gave up 3 first rounders and a second in the RG3 trade, and that was just going from 6 to 2. Granted, that was a pretty crazy trade to start with, but going from 19 to 3 that's the kind of value you'd be looking at.
     
  30. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,323
    1,376
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    To me, it seems like it is the Lions' pick if they want it. They have tons of ammo and a need. We are moving down 4 spots. If the guy you want is anyone other than Sewell, there is a very real shot that you could get him at 7.
     
  31. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020

    My point is that the whole league thought it was insanity what Washington did... And it did not work out for them. No team has overpaid that badly since. I would argue that most teams would look at the RGIII example as proof not to pay that much. ( Which is why we do not see trades like that as commonplace. )
     
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    I don't think teams "learn" like that.

    The RG3 trade wasn't the first time a team traded a massive amount to move up in the draft. The Saints traded their entire draft (which is worth more than 3 1sts spread out) to draft Ricky Williams. That also didn't work out for them. Ironically that trade was with Washington, yet Washington traded a similar value for RG3.

    Oh, and that Ricky Williams trade came after the Herschel Walker trade, which is maybe the only comparable trade in NFL history to a potential Watson trade — Walker was an elite talent in his prime at what many teams thought was the most important position back then: RB. That trade netted Dallas at least 3 1sts and 2 2nds (and much more) and was a complete failure for Minnesota who thought Walker was the missing piece. Dallas on the other hand went from one of the worst teams to winning multiple SB's with the draft picks acquired.

    That didn't stop the Saints from trading a ton for Ricky Williams later. So you can bet that Watson will command a ransom regardless of the RG3 trade failure, and the Herschel Walker trade failure, and the Ricky Williams trade failure (for the team acquiring the player of course). The reason we don't see trades like this isn't because teams aren't willing to overpay, it's because teams with an elite QB in their prime aren't willing to trade them.
     
  33. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Brad

    It is not the first time a team has made a huge trade... but the game changes all of the time the cap the finances the CBA the draft... 5 year options...etc... So in this modern Era the RGIII trade is the only one like it... Once it was made no other team was willing to duplicate that kind of move. There has to be a reason. I would argue that means teams did in fact learn from the mistakes Washington made.

    I do not think we can compare Hershal Walker and Ricky Williams playing 30 years ago to The need for teams to get a top QB to lead their franchise today.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Two things:

    1) You don't know how many teams have offered a massive deal for the 1st or 2nd pick since the RG3 trade since most offers aren't even publicized. That alone means you can't conclude teams have "learned" from the RG3 trade.

    2) All it takes for the trade not to occur is for the team with the #1 or #2 pick to value the QB they're aiming to draft even more than the massive haul of picks they may have been offered. That's what happened with Luck. No amount offered dissuaded Indy from drafting him.

    I think it's clear based on how often teams trade up for QB's, how many QB's are taken high in the draft, and the compensation you see for QB's that are traded that the perceived value of great QB's is immense. If you assume that's true, then there's really no reason to think teams aren't willing to offer a ton for the chance to land a great QB regardless of the RG3 trade. And the Walker trade really is relevant because you're talking about franchise defining events. That's generally going to be independent of era.
     
  35. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

    12,161
    5,057
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Our pick is going to become very valuable after the BYU pro day
     
    mlb1399 likes this.
  36. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Brad

    I am making an assumption here I will clearly state that. based on the fact that I strongly feel that if a team was offered when the Redskins offered to move 4 spots to get RGIII they would take it. ( I could be wrong about that assumption... I doubt it. ... Ergo I am concluding that teams are not offering..... cheers )
     

Share This Page