1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Today I had a total reversal on Watson, Tua, and the direction of the Dolphins

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by DOLFANMIKE, Jan 29, 2021.

  1. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

    5,403
    4,485
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    California
    I woke up this morning and found that slowly but surely I have had a full reversal in my thoughts about trading for Watson.

    Before I get into the specifics about what changed my mind about trading for Watson, I'll share with you that as a Dolphins fan and former Coach of 32 years, I am always overly optimistic. I tend to be too loyal to coaches because I understand from being in coaching how many factors can ruin your product on the field, and the same goes with Dolphins players. More often than not once they become a Dolphin I'm overly loyal. That's just my makeup. So understand, this post in particular doesn't come easy for me. If it seems wishy washy, that's the reason why.

    So here it goes. I was pretty solid behind the idea of not trading for Watson. I don't like that he's demanding his way out of Houston, and some other things about what is going on there with him right now. I also am loyal to Tua, there's nothing not to like about Tua the person. He's got Leader written all over him, he's going to work his *** off, and I really hope he's successful no matter where he plays down the road.

    But we should absolutely make a move at QB. The fact is Tua is recovering from a serious injury and it doesn't look like his mobility will ever be a plus for his gameplay. His play on the field has been spotty, and IMO there haven't been nearly enough upfield reads or special throws. But I have a concern even greater than these. Covid has changed the game drastically. Coaches don't get anywhere near the time we used to to fix mechanics, improve reads, or really influence a players progression anymore. That's a fact. Until Covid is gone or greatly reduced, about all that is going to get done in the off season is trying to improve timing and putting in the playbook. It's my opinion that this is going to greatly reduce Tua's growth as a passer and player. I listened and watched alot of discussion on Tua lately, and there has been a bunch of talk about his ceiling and how all of this is potentially going to really limit his ceiling. I think when I take my Tua fan blinders off, I tend to agree.

    Why Watson, Stafford, or even a trade up for T. Lawrence? It's pretty obvious to me that if we somehow land a Star QB we are in contention for the AFC East title. We will NEVER have a better opportunity to get that QB than we do right now with our wide assortment of selections, and even some tradeable players. Watson would be a huge impact for us in a variety of ways. His cap situation is fantastic, and he is a deal for the superstar that he is. His production (leading the league in Passing yards) establishes that he is the player we need at QB, and his age (25) just two years older than Tua. Watson is healthy, and other than his beef with the Texans there really isn't any negative. Especially on the field. We won 10 games this year with the roster we have. Add Watson and we sweep NE, beat the Broncos, and probably grab another few wins.

    Stafford and Lawrence would also be much more likely to get us where we want to be than Tua for lots of the same reasons.

    Ultimately, I think we are finally in that zone where we don't have a million pieces to fill on our roster. Where we do have deep needs, the draft is extremely deep (RB, WR, OL, Edge) and FA can fill some of those holes too. Using #5 last draft for Tua was a fine move, but how long will it take for his to improve to a star level? Will he ever get there with the current Covid restrictions? It's not worth the risk and might take too long (in terms of holding our roster together). Today, I decided that I want to win NOW, and I think if we use all the juice we have to secure our QB for the next decade we will have some really great football ahead of us starting in 2021. Now isn't the time to sit and see if Tua pans out. Move up a couple spots in the draft and secure T. Lawrence or trade for Watson or Stafford. Now is the time for Miami to make the big move that we all know we need.

    DOLFANMIKE
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2021
    pumpdogs, Irishman, resnor and 2 others like this.
  2. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    I totally agree. I have nothing against Tua, and it's possible he will in a few years be a very good QB. But he's not, not right now. And this isn't the sort of league where you can play just okay for season after season and everyone will have patience for it. Teams turn around in one off-season and fall apart the next. The sort of league where Aaron Rodgers can sit on the bench for a few years and everyone will have patience with him doesn't exist anymore.
     
    Pauly, resnor and DOLFANMIKE like this.
  3. Fireland

    Fireland Well-Known Member

    1,461
    1,234
    113
    Dec 29, 2013
    Imagine thinking that going after Mathew Stafford would the move that would bring the Dolphins a title

    Or that he would be the answer for the next decade

    Or that that would be a big move comparable with Watson or Lawrence
     
  4. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

    5,403
    4,485
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    California
    Cute response. I look forward to seeing more of your ideas.
    You don't think Stafford can improve us both now and later? Please do explain your imagining. Be sure to include how Stafford has played recently and over his career. Stats would be helpful for me to understand your imagining.
     
  5. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    Stafford is a talented QB. I'm not sure if he fits with the offense we're running, but he's a better QB than anyone we've had on our roster since Marino.
     
    mlb1399, resnor and DOLFANMIKE like this.
  6. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

    5,403
    4,485
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    California
    Yes, I agree. Plus lets face it, with no OC we don't really have an offense (Yet).
    Stafford has had a monster career and MOST in the league consider him a rare talent. His stats certainly point in that direction and after Watson or Lawrence... Stafford would be my top choice as the Dolphins QB.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    If you're really interested in a statistical analysis of Stafford, then he's close to average, though lately he's been better.

    You want to compare z-scores of passer ratings, which are standard deviations above and below league average in that year — z-scores are naturally "era adjusted" which is why they're better than raw passer rating which doesn't take into account passer rating inflation over time. A z-score of zero means exactly average in that year while a z-score of 1 happens to be close to the average level a QB that wins a SB played in THAT year (only that year he won the SB). The highest career z-score ever for a QB with 4000+ passing attempts is Steve Young with 1.8627.

    These are Stafford's z-scores per year:
    2009: -1.4762
    2010: 0.6247
    2011: 0.9844
    2012: -0.5042
    2013: -0.1519
    2014: -0.3233
    2015: 0.7698
    2016: 0.3561
    2017: 1.2545
    2018: -0.2502
    2019: 1.4896
    2020: 0.2261

    If you weight by passing attempts, Stafford's career z-score is 0.207. In other words, just a tad above average. Of course his recent performance is better (e.g., last 5 years or so), but compare this to Watson and there's really no basis for comparison:

    Watson's z-scores per year:
    2017: 1.6289
    2018: 0.8508
    2019: 0.7257
    2020: 1.6115

    Watson's weighted (by attempts) career z-score is 1.1429.

    In other words, Watson is playing on average at a level slightly above that of a SB winning QB. So yes it makes sense to seriously consider a trade for Watson, but Stafford is a hard no. Stafford is statistically not much better than average.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2021
    Drizzy, Pauly and The Guy like this.
  8. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I could make an argument here either way- to pursue Watson or pass. To be honest, it really depends on what minute of the day you ask me. But let me give my argument on why we shouldn't pursue Watson...even though I might not be convinced of it myself.

    Over the past few years, we've stripped this franchise down to bare metal and 100% rebuilt from the ground up. The goal came into focus quickly, we were building through the draft with young, talented players while also maximizing value through strategic trades. Tunsil was impossible to let go, for example, but it was the right move for the full vision of the franchise.

    Here we are less than 2 years later as a 10-win team with an elite defense, the best line we've had in a decade and a rookie QB that many are absolutely in love with. It's very easy to say that our receivers, linebackers and other positions are "good enough" for this team to make it to the next level, which may in fact be true. However, signing Watson is abandoning everything that got us to this point in the last 24 months and undercuts our real reason for success- Flores and staff developing young players.

    To me, Watson is the Tunsil deal in reverse....we're putting all our eggs in one basket and hoping for the best. And again, that sounds really really nice, what's not to like about grabbing a 10-year QB who will be top-5 for most of the ride? It's the biggest "guarantee" that we'll ever get in bringing in a new QB and it is a very exciting option. Yet it's completely the wrong move since it goes against everything this team is in the moment.

    The 4-5 picks we'd trade for Watson would be five QUALITY starters...five immediate impact players who would transform this defense or make the offense much more powerful. If the chips fall as expected, we could end up with two future Pro Bowl receivers, a Pro Bowl running back, plus a stud defensive lineman and a stud linebacker. It's easy now to say we "don't need those things" to be a perennial playoff contender, but if we do sign those 5 players AND Tua develops, then we're playing for a Super Bowl in a year or two without Watson.

    Now let's look at the flipside. We sign Watson and draft some prospects in the later rounds. What happens if Watson doesn't pan out? We know he has the talent, but he could get injured and we've traded away Tua in order to secure him. So just like that, we now have an offense being run by a no-name prospect QB with average talent around him....it would be a complete disaster.

    Now, what if Tua doesn't develop? Okay, then we simply move on....with an incredibly high-powered offense that just needs a QB inserted. But even if Tua turns out to be average, the 16th overall NFL starting QB, this could still be a championship team. If we trade him for Watson though and Watson doesn't develop/gets hurt/whatever, we're 100% miserable with a losing record.

    My logic says to take a hard pass on Watson at the current asking price. If he really wants to come here and puts his foot down, then the story changes and the offers become a lot more attractive. In that situation, you sign him in a heartbeat. But we can't pay "full price" and mortgage the next few draft classes on Watson being the guaranteed answer...not with the amazing offensive talent in this draft. As much as I believe in him being the "sure thing", I believe in those five draft picks and Tua even more.
     
    Hooligan, RevRick and DOLFANMIKE like this.
  9. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

    5,403
    4,485
    113
    Mar 22, 2008
    California
    Funny thing about stats...you can almost always find what your looking for.

    upload_2021-1-29_13-58-52.png

    This is back when he was only 29 but impressive nonetheless, and he's gotten better since not worse.
    upload_2021-1-29_13-59-40.png

    Imagine not understanding the value of this.
    upload_2021-1-29_14-0-2.png
     
  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Right, you're ignoring rule changes that have progressively made it easier for QB's to match what were previously historically impressive stats. That's why you need z-scores, but it looks like you want to ignore that because it doesn't match your view of Stafford, which is fine. But Stafford is close to average statistically when you adjust for era.
     
    Pauly, The Guy and Irishman like this.
  11. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,881
    4,834
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Take it from a guy who watches an unfortunate amount of Lions football since they are the local team ... Stafford is fool's gold. Dude's got all the talent you could ever want, but has never been able to really put it together and win. No, the Lions as a team and organization aren't good and yes that matters, but there's a reason Stafford has never won a playoff game and has been to the playoffs like 3 times.

    I would MUCH rather build the team and see if/how Tua improves in year 2 than trade anything for Stafford, a 33 year old non-winner who doesn't finish seasons and has several back injuries.

    Watson? Yes, all day every day. Stafford? Not a chance. He makes sense for a desperate team with no QB plan like Indy or San Fran who have the complete team that even average to slightly above average QB play might be get them to the finish line. But for a team with a young QB? No, give the kid the shot.
     
    JJ_79 likes this.
  12. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

    11,881
    4,834
    113
    Nov 26, 2007
    Detroit Metro Area MI
    Btw, Stafford's nickname is Stat Padford. That should tell you something about the gaudy numbers. :chuckle:
     
    resnor and mlb1399 like this.
  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    If we got Watson for a bargain, I’d be ok with making the move. But honestly, I like the direction this team is heading in whether you believe in Tua or not. I say keep building this thing and if Tua isn’t the answer we’ll try again in 2-3 years with a great team around that QB. If he is, then this team is about become a contender after this draft.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  14. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

    573
    532
    93
    Oct 16, 2017
    High Point, NC
    A great post.

    A rational situational assessment on a forum where there is, way too often, a hurricane of hyperbole.
     
    DOLFANMIKE and Rick 1966 like this.
  15. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

    11,035
    4,419
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    I wouldn't mind getting Watson. While I'm still firmly on the Tua bandwagon, Watson is young and proven.

    The problem is, we have a lot of positions that could use some upgrading, and we're not one QB away from a being a playoff contender. So, I'd rather not jettison away too many picks (from this draft and next years draft).
     
    Pauly, DOLFANMIKE and Irishman like this.
  16. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    We were a playoff contender this year. One win away from it. You don't think Watson could get us one more win?
     
    resnor and Sceeto like this.
  17. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    It REALLY comes down to the cost to get Watson. Trading Tua, #3, #36 and our 2022 first rounder (#32) would be an acceptable cost to me. We'd still have first, second, third, and fourth round picks (along with the late round ones) to improve the team for the 2021 season.

    So, that's getting a proven franchise QB AND still having enough high picks to improve the team around him. Sign me up.
     
    DOLFANMIKE and resnor like this.
  18. EverFin

    EverFin Active Member

    360
    126
    43
    Apr 23, 2014
    Zurich, Switzerland
    Yes, Watson would get us maybe one more win. But for me the question is would Watson make our skill players better? Would Parker play more consistent on his best level? Would Williams stay healthy? Would Grant catch this damn Balls? Would Breida be able to need his speed? Would Gaskin become a weapon in the redzone? Because if it demands all this first round picks to get Watson, how should we be able to replace this players with true skill players.

    I would stay with Tua and get young skill players with our picks in this draft.
     
    Silverphin, Irishman and mlb1399 like this.
  19. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    We can get a good WR in this draft, as long as we don't overpay for Watson. Another in free agency and you can always get an RB in the later rounds.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  20. RevRick

    RevRick Long Haired Leaping Gnome Club Member

    7,191
    3,940
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Thomasville, GA
    "I would stay with Tua and get young skill players with our picks in this draft."

    Concur! Unless the Texans change their mind and their cost (Not Bloody Likely!) I still like the way of finding the best QB we can through the draft and giving Tua some competition.
    Another point: We have a very small sample of Tua's capabilities AFTER just coming off an injury! We do not know even at this time how he will respond with his body in good health and condition [absent pain!] from the beginning of the year on through!
     
    Irishman, Hooligan and KeyFin like this.
  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Cbrad, he still did things that no other quarterbacks were doing, IN THE SAME ERA. Comparing eras is unimportant. You are arguing that he's average. Yet he hit milestones that QBs you would argue were elite, or at least above average, did not hit, while playing at the same time as Stafford.
     
    Rick 1966 and Hooligan like this.
  22. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    I don't think people are pushing the Deshaun Watson story accurately. Everyone's view is clouded by the bias that they want to see Deshaun Watson traded. Folks want to believe the Texans brass are evil, inept people. They want to believe Deshaun Watson is a victim. They want to believe Watson will be traded so they can entertain the notion that he'll be playing for their team next year.

    The truth is the Texans have no incentive to release Deshaun Watson and he has very little grounding on which to make the claim that he's been aggrieved. The Texans therefore can (and from their perspective should) force him to the bargaining table using the financial leverage they have. Watson will have no recourse but to retire or else accept his fate as a Houston Texan for the next few years.

    The likelihood he's traded this offseason is extremely low given that the Houston Texans have no real incentive to actually move him and that their asking price will (and should be) extremely high given his talent.
     
  23. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    5,227
    6,527
    113
    Dec 7, 2014
    This isn't me disagreeing with you but rather selecting this phrase in order to remind folks that when you trade picks, you're trading possibilities which themselves exist as percentages.

    In reality, 50% is a good rate of return. Trading 4 picks is more like trading 2 good players and 2 average players.

    This is why I think Deshaun Watson's value is actually being suppressed when we talk purely in terms of picks. This is why good players like Jamal Adams and Jalen Ramsey go for multiple picks.

    As an elite QB, Watson is probably worth 3-4 other good players (maybe more?), which are themselves all independently worth multiple picks. How many Jalen Rameys would an elite QB be worth? I would say at least 3. So that's roughly 6 R1 picks, LOL. At that point, a trade becomes unrealistic unless a team is willing to move multiple players along with multiple picks.

    This is a scenario where I think Miami would have to give up multiple weapons like Xavien Howard, Christian Wilkins, Mike Gesicki, etc as well as multiple picks. At that point, you're giving away more than you like which is evidence you're starting to get to a more realistic trade scenario.

    The thing people have to keep in mind is that a team trading for Deshaun Watson is most certainly not going to win the trade on paper. Their going to have to go to absurd levels all for the sake of answering the QB question.

    In reality, I just don't think an elite QB of Watson's age is going to actually get traded. Teams would have to give up too much and the Texans would have to accept giving up on the one thing that makes the biggest impact in the sport when at the same time they have all the financial leverage to force Watson's hand.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2021
    Hooligan and resnor like this.
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    You don't have to compare eras. Look at those z-scores. The z-scores tell you where he is compared to peers in his own era. He's only slightly above average compared to those in HIS era!

    The historical relationship between z-score passer ratings and win% shows that teams with Stafford-like QB's average about 8.5 wins per season, while Watson-like QB's average 10 wins per season, in a 16 game season that is. If you cherry pick and only look at Stafford's last 5 years that goes up to 9 wins per season, but even at his best (over several years) we're talking about a QB that is HALF as effective at increasing win% as Watson. And that's WITH cherry picking.

    Sorry there's no legitimate comparison between Stafford and Watson. And that's not just stats speaking. Look around the web for rankings of QB's, from QB tier rankings by NFL insiders (e.g., coaches, scouts, GM's) to fantasy rankings to pff, etc. Where are the two in the same category? Watson is either in the top or 2nd from top while Stafford is usually around average or slightly above, precisely where the stats put him.

    Trading for Stafford would be one of the dumbest moves this franchise could make, unless it's for a 3rd rounder or less.
     
    texanphinatic and The Guy like this.
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    And there you have the value of an elite QB -- increasing wins from the expected 8 to the playoff-level 10, by himself.

    The rest of the team can be merely average, and the elite QB nonetheless makes the team likely to make the playoffs by himself. Quite valuable. There is no other single player in pro football who can do that.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Yet how do you reconcile that an average QB did things that other allegedly better QBs didn't do?

    I just don't, and never will, believe that stats tell the whole story.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2021
  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I completely agree- some of those picks may well miss. So far we've been pretty on-the-money though in the Flores/Grier era and this draft is going to FINALLY BE about offensive weapons. An elite RB/WR combo makes me very excited for ANY QB in our offense to throw to, and that's only two of the picks for Etienne/Harris and one of the top, highly elite WR's.

    At the end of the day, it really comes down to what the front office thinks they have in Tua. If you're still 100% confident, then you pass. If you're 30-50% confident, then maybe you swing for the fences with an incredible package of picks. I don't think either move is "wrong" because we don't see what Flores sees. Both are great paths that makes this team immediately better.

    I just don't know what the "smarter" move is- they're both incredible options though and I'm very thankful the front office got us in this position in the first place.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  28. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Here's the counter to that argument. Houston said yesterday, "We're not trading him. Looking forward to speaking with him soon."

    So maybe they are prepared to play the "long game" and try to wait this out to training camp. If he doesn't show, fine him. But what does that really do? Watson will still be getting paid and just handing that money back in fines- if there's no pre-season then he'd make $2.1M on the year by not playing (he makes zero if there are pre-season games that he misses). I'm pretty sure he could survive either way.

    Meanwhile, what do the Texans do if they call his bluff and he sits out? They have no early draft picks, nobody to start at QB, and a room full of very angry players who already wanted out before all this happened. Nobody wants to be there as the team goes 0-16 and the coach/GM are clearly in for short tenures...it is career suicide for both of them.

    For Watson to return, it's going to take a front office restructure at a minimum, with the owner pulling power back from his pastor and ultimately firing him. That won't happen, even though the whole world knows it is the only possible move. And in the very near future, Casario is going to realize that, see the owner trusts his spiritual advisor more than his GM, and realize the only way out of this madness is to trade Deshaun Watson before the draft. That's the only possible way he has a career in the NFL because it's the only move that can save him from this insanity all around him. He can't fix the owner completely screwing over his star player- there's no way past that.

    Yet ignoring the problem only makes Watson feel more isolated and disrespected...which is exactly what the franchise is doing. I mean, they are trying to call but Watson is not answering for obvious reasons. He doesn't need to hear their BS.

    So even though Watson is an "untradeable player", that's the only move here for a head coach and a GM who got sucked into this ridiculous situation. I actually misspoke, there is one more move each of them can make- it would be to resign immediately. That's the only other path to avoid the humiliation that's eventually going to come.
     
  29. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Like what? Be specific. Dolfanmike only pointed out stats that were either team specific (i.e., comparing only to Detroit Lions QB's) which is really irrelevant if you want to compare to all others in the same era, or comparisons to QB's since 1970, which as I pointed out only looks impressive if you're not adjusting for era.

    So tell us what specifically Stafford did that was so amazing when compared ONLY to other QB's since 2009.

    Oh, and as far as stats not telling the whole story, that's true, but with such large sample size stats summarize much of the story. I mean if Stafford is so great why is Detroit trying to trade him?? The reason there's such excitement over Watson is precisely because NEVER has an elite QB been traded in his prime. You don't see that excitement with Stafford. No one is surprised about Detroit trying to trade Stafford lol. Detroit knows that Stafford isn't the answer at QB.

    Let's also see what Stafford is traded for. As I pointed out in another thread, a 1st is par for the course for an "average" QB, like Carson Palmer and Sam Bradford at the time of their trades (I mean we sent a 2nd for Rosen, a guy who hadn't even had ONE game with average passer rating lol). So let's see what is given up for Stafford.

    Keep in mind that with Watson the talk from Houston was 3 1sts and 3 2nds AND possibly a blue chip player as a starting point. Even if that's just the opening stance for a negotiation, it's clearly FAR beyond anything Stafford will command. The entire league sees that the 2 QB's are not comparable. One is elite, the other is slightly above average.
     
    texanphinatic likes this.
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Specifically, for instance, he pointed out that he was the third fastest to 30k yards. Regards of era, the QBs coming into the league with Stafford didn't do that. So it doesn't matter if Marino was more impressive for getting there in the era he did it, still, Stafford's contemporaries didn't do it, and you alleging that Stafford is average doesn't change that.
     
    DOLFANMIKE likes this.
  31. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    lol THAT is what you think is impressive? That's entirely a function of passing attempts, which Stafford was #1 in twice: 2011 an 2012, and often near the top in other years.

    This is what you need to know about that stat: the correlation between passing attempts and points scored per game across NFL history is 0.0542, and the correlation between passing attempts and win% is -0.1748.

    In other words, the amount you throw tells us nothing about how much it helps the offense score points, and the amount you throw is actually a BAD sign for winning the game. It means you were often behind in the 4th quarter.

    That's why you look at efficiency stats, not volume stats, for QB's. In the case of Marino and Peyton they're VERY high on efficiency, while Stafford is just a bit above average. That volume stat means nothing for the purpose of selecting a QB that will help your team score points and win games.

    And for comparison, the correlation between passer rating and points scored across NFL history is 0.777 while it's 0.634 between passer rating and win%. That translates to 60.37% of variation in points scored and 40.2% of variation in win% being explained by differences in passer rating. Quite a bit better than the near 0% for passing attempts!
     
    The Guy and texanphinatic like this.
  32. OwesOwn614

    OwesOwn614 Well-Known Member

    3,757
    3,786
    113
    Jul 8, 2020
    My only concern with a potential trade for Watson is the price tag. Even with him, we'd need to put important pieces in place to be a sustainably good team and trading numerous high draft assets would upgrade us at QB but not necessarily help us lay our foundation. I anticipated a 3-4 year rebuilding process and we're in year 3 right now. I don't feel like we're a QB away from being a championship team and I don't want to impact constant improvement by potentially making the same mistake we've made too many times in the past.
     
    EverFin, RevRick and mlb1399 like this.
  33. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Watson is worth 4 first-round picks.

    Simple as that

    Seahawks and Bears both gave up 2 first-round picks to get defensive players. ( Mack and Adams ) Watson is worth more than both of those players combined.


    I am not saying that the Dolphins pony up to get Watson... I am not psychic. I am just stating his value. Look what the RedSkins gave up to draft RGIII!!! The value has been established. Watson is one of the three most valuable players in the NFL
     
  34. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY
    Apparently the Rams thought Stafford was impressive enough to give up 2 1st rounders, a 3rd rounder and Jared Goff for him.
     
    resnor likes this.
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Watson totally changes that rebuild strategy because you don't need great surrounding pieces on offense with him.

    He proved in 2020 that he doesn't need great WR's. In fact our current WR's are probably sufficient, though I'd still try to upgrade. It just wouldn't be the priority it is right now with Tua. Watson does however need at least an average OL. There were too many games in 2020 where a terrible OL led to the drive stalling. But our OL is close to average already, and you don't need high draft picks to ensure the OL is decent. Same with the running game: all this guy needs is average.

    And "average" is something you can attain without lots of high draft picks, which is why IMO it's worth spending the equivalent of 3 1sts + maybe 1-2 2nds for Watson, assuming Tua counts towards one of those 1sts (either directly in a trade to Houston or in a separate trade to another team).

    I think the most important consideration if we trade for Watson is whether Flores is really a great defensive coach. Was 2020 a mirage? If it isn't a mirage and our defense is on average top 6-7 or so each year, then Watson on this team I think makes winning at least one SB likely within the time he'd be here, say over a 10 year period. That's good enough odds for me given that Rodgers and Brees only managed 1 SB.

    But if 2020 was a mirage and we trade for Watson then I think that sets this franchise back a good deal. Anyway, I think my threshold is at about 3 1sts + 2 2nds with Tua counting towards one of those 1sts. Anything more than that and I'd rather build around Tua who I'm still high on, though he'll need to prove he's a lot better in 2021.
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  36. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    Cbrad

    Long time man... Cheers.

    I agree in part... Watson is so special that he elevates average receivers. If we had to deal Tua and say 3 first-round picks.. ( 2 this year and one next year. ) We could still make out okay inking a Robinson or a Davis. Wilson is coming back from Covid.

    So worst case scenario you would have

    Robinson
    Parker
    Williams
    Wilson

    And then a couple of the young guys this year that starter to step up and show something... Obviously, this means that Gator and Hurns would be gone.
     
  37. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    And I have stated since the first whisper of a trade rumour for Watson that the asking price and value would be 4 first round picks.

    I feel you are not far off with your assessment of 3 firsts and a pair of seconds... Seems like we are on the same page.

    I have seen yahoo.com articles where they say the Jets will get Watson for a pair of first round picks and a throw in... Complete horse****.
     
  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    That's more than I thought. It's apparently a 3rd in 2021, a 1st in 2022 and a 1st in 2023, so not a 1st this year. Using the draft value chart with each future year devaluing the pick by a round, that's like a mid/high 1st this year.

    But with Goff that's like the equivalent of 2 1sts, so I admit Stafford was valued as "above average" instead of "average". But I still maintain that there's no valid equivalency between Watson and Stafford. Hopefully Watson gets traded so we can see what the difference in compensation is.
     
    Etrius24 likes this.
  39. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

    682
    685
    93
    Mar 4, 2020
    I say this because look what Stafford just brought... Goff and a pair of first round picks plus a throw in pick. Watson is worth double this.
     
  40. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

    8,565
    3,821
    113
    Nov 23, 2007
    Powell, WY

    The Rams don't have a first rounder this year.
     

Share This Page