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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Naw, it was just Brad and I bickering like two old men. This one has pretty much died on it's own in recent weeks- say tuned for the 267 page debate on the Bearded One next though! I have a lot to say about Fitz!
     
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  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    btw.. one more thing about the Titans. I know a lot of you root for that team, but every Dolphins fan should be rooting for them to lose next week because the Dolphins are in the playoff hunt and we don't know whether the Titans or Colts will win their division. In other words, we need both to lose as much as possible.

    Titans play the Bears and the Colts play the Ravens next week before the Titans and Colts play each other the week after, so the next two weeks could (if things go well for us) see the Dolphins vault into that last WC spot.

    Raiders are the other team to root against. They play the Chargers, who have put up a ton of points in their last 4 games, losing primarily because their defense gave up slightly more. Anyway, there's a chance for us in that game too.
     
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  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, I think we have a legitimate chance at taking the division. We SHOULD beat the Chargers, Broncos, Jets and Pats easily...giving us 8 total wins with 5 still to play. The Chiefs are probably a loss. The Raiders & Bengals will be tough...I think we split there for our 9th win. That leaves the Cardinals and the Bills, two teams we have to beat if this team is truly as legit on defense as they appear. So if we go into week 17 to play the Bills and we're at 10-5, it's basically a playoff game for the division.

    The Bills have the Seahawks (L), the Cardinals (probably a loss), the Chargers, 49ers (W/W), the Steelers (L), the Broncos (W), then the Pats one more time (W). If I predicted those right, they'll also go into week 17 at 10-5 overall.

    Now, I'm making the assumption that Tua matures enough over the next few weeks to put some points on the board. He played "okay" today but also keep in mind that he made his 1st start against a very good defense in the Rams. At the same time though, I wouldn't be shocked to see Flores bench Tua if he's not at a certain level a few weeks from now...I really think they're in "win now" mode and they're not going to let up on the division.

    Call me crazy, but I think we'll be in shape to win the division outright in week 17 (or whatever the final week is this year). I'm not even thinking of Wildcard spots at this point....I'm either thinking division champs (Tua plays great/average) or finishing our year 2 rebuild (Tua plays average/bad). The middle ground doesn't interest me yet, lol, but that might change in 3-4 weeks!
     
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  4. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, it's realistic. I think it's more realistic we sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card than win the division but your scenario isn't unrealistic at all IMO. Today changed a lot for me because for the first time I'm bullish on Flores. Not completely sold, but bullish. That was game planning at its finest, and it's precisely what Belichick is known for. Maybe Flores has it too?

    Get the right HC and yes playoffs are realistic, so I share that positive view now. As for Tua? He just needs experience. He looked a bit lost out there today, but that's expected for a rookie. I also think he'll improve steadily to the point he's more of an asset than a liability by season's end. Just in time for the playoffs maybe?
     
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  5. DolPhinPhan7

    DolPhinPhan7 Well-Known Member

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    How Tannehill to lose to the Bengals.
     
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The TITANS lost to the Bengals because the Bengals scored more points. That’s how it works.
     
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  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Ummm, the Titans DEFENSE didn't stop the Bengals offense. I watched the replay of the game and the Titans defense never showed up. In fairness, Tannehill didn't have his best game, far from it, but he wasn't terrible either. He made what's becoming signature completions in very tight windows.

    But, this is why they play the game. Any team can beat any team on any given Sunday.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-mvp-20...ahomes-duel-for-the-top-spot-in-pffs-rankings

    Defenses.png

    RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS
    Week 8 stats: 65.4 passing grade, 0.08 EPA per play, 0.14 adjusted EPA per play
    2020 stats: 78.9 passing grade, 0.31 EPA per play, 0.36 adjusted EPA per play

    The air gets thinner for Ryan Tannehill after his second consecutive mediocre performance. His stats are still fairly good, but he would have to significantly outpace his competition in terms of stats to truly have a chance to win the award since his perception is simply lower than the other four favorites. This doesn’t feel wrong, as Tannehill’s season grade dropped below the 80.0 mark, while the other favorites are all graded very close to 90.0 or higher. It doesn’t get any easier for him, as he plays a very good Bears defense on Sunday. If he can’t bounce back, he might soon drop out of the list of favorites.
     
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Early games not good for the Dolphins: Houston, Buffalo and Tennessee winning, only Indy losing.

    Anyway, after today Tannehill has a 109.5 rating for the year and the probability his ratings in Tennessee and his ratings in Miami "come from the same QB" is 0.0145%.

    As a formality, next week I'll adjust for the 2020 league-wide distribution of ratings and also simulate what it would take the rest of the year for Tannehill's Tennessee ratings to no longer be statistically significant. That will probably be so unrealistically low that we can close the book on this debate from a purely statistical point of view.
     
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  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    All three of the other teams won (Bills, Titans, Texans), so that's all I'm going to comment on to avoid the need for replies. The Bills beating the Hawks is impressive, but I still don't think they'll win against Arizona next week. Fingers crossed!
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  12. xphinfanx

    xphinfanx Stay strong my friends.

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    The Bills and Cards will be interesting. Hope the Bills flop this one.
     
  13. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tannehill’s looking good so far, 4-4 for 59 yards and a TD. So far perfect 158.33 passer rating.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    First incomplete pass was a drop on what should have been a 70 yard TD pass.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Tannehill has 9 completions to 8 different receivers currently.
     
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Watching this game, it is absolutely amazing that Tannehill has put up the numbers he has with the Titans defense. They give up drive after drive, sucking up clock.
     
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  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Their defense is definitely their Achilles Heel.
     
  18. Bumrush

    Bumrush Stable Genius Club Member

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    Watching Tannehill tonight makes me so glad we have Tua.

    The one time we need the Titans to win a game they **** the bed. Colts will likely win and keep pace with Miami for the last wild card spot.
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. as promised, here's the last weekly update on Tannehill's Miami vs. Tennessee stats. This is the first week I'm taking into account the record high mean and standard deviation for passer rating in 2020.

    Tannehill's 2020 rating is now 106.9 where the league average is 95.2 and standard deviation is 13.04. Without taking that into account (for comparison to previous weekly updates) the probability Tannehill's Miami and Tennessee ratings "come from the same QB" is 0.027%. Take the 2020 distribution of passer ratings into account and that jumps to 0.12%, which is a huge jump and way more than I expected. Just shows how anomalous this year's offensive stats are.

    Statistical significance is (almost always) set at <5% level, which 0.12% obviously is, and simulations show that Tannehill would have to average a rating of ~75 across the next 7 games to cross that 5% threshold (note that the simulation used 7 straight 75.15 ratings.. variation around 75 while averaging 75 does change the result a bit).

    So from a purely statistical point of view, there's no question Tannehill is at least an above average QB different from the statistically average one seen in Miami (I know that's obvious to the eye, but statistical tests are highly conservative so this does say a lot). The only reason to revisit this in 2020 is if Tannehill starts producing ratings averaging ~75 or so.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2020
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If the 2020 league mean and standard deviation were to stay the same throughout the season, what would Tannehill's 2020 season passer rating have to be for this season's passer rating exclusively to be non-significantly different from his career in Miami? In other words, how would he have to perform in 2020 for 2019 to become merely an 11-game anomaly?
     
  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a tough question to answer because the t-test is operating on individual game passer ratings, not year-end passer ratings. It also depends on how many passing attempts (on average) you think Tannehill would have if he started averaging a rating of 75 per game from here on out. Anyway, most estimates will put you close to a 2020 rating of 90-93 or so, but hard to say because that's not the statistic the test looks at.
     
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  22. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You dont remember all the Superbowls Joe Philbin and Adam Gase won as Head Coaches after leaving us?
     
  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What if you did an ANOVA for the three groups -- 1) Miami, 2) 2019, and 3) 2020 -- with post-hoc tests?
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't think you could justify that. That's like searching for something that might show something lol.

    You either do an ANOVA where each year is a separate group, ignoring the Miami vs. Tennessee difference, or you separate Miami vs. Tennessee like I did. The ANOVA for each year as a separate group will become increasingly important with more years played in Tennessee because ultimately a career is a career and you shouldn't cherry pick subsets, but right now the Miami vs. Tennessee distinction is more relevant IMO, which is why I did what I did.

    In general, separation into groups should be justified without first looking at the data.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2020
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think you could make the argument that 2019 was a contract year and, based on his age and history, the last chance he would have to be offered the kind of contract he got. In other words, motivation was perhaps higher that year than in any other year of his career.
     
  26. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Oh Puka-Head, you shouldn’t have said anything. :sidelol:
     
  27. Puka-head

    Puka-head My2nd Fav team:___vs Jets Club Member

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    Slightly left of center
    :nutkick::plzdie:
     
  28. Hooligan

    Hooligan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This thread is on life support and Phizer has no vaccine in the works. The Titans likely won't even make the play-offs.
    As it stands now the WC teams will be Baltimore, the Raiders and,, Buffalo.
     
  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Today's Titans/Ravens game is pretty important in defining that playoff picture- would rather see them over the Colts. Love how you subtly dropped Buffalo into the Wild Card though....a lot of folks would probably miss that!

    Miami does have one of the easiest schedules to close out the year, so a lot of folks in contention today won't be there by season's end.
     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This didn’t age well
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    upload_2020-11-23_8-17-1.png

    upload_2020-11-23_8-22-19.png
     
  32. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Tannehill’s had a couple of bad games the past few weeks. Personally I feel the defense wasn’t helping the offense, but that’s another discussion all together.

    The question I would pose with the Dolphins defeat yesterday is this...

    Would Tannehill under center in Miami have played better yesterday than Tagovailoa did? I’m not trying to derail Tua Time in Miami nor question the drafting of Tagovailoa. Not in the least, just merely pose the question and hypothetical, where would the Dolphins be under this coaching staff and supporting cast had we kept Tannehill?
     
  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    "Had we kept Tannehill".. so not Tannehill the rookie. Of course a vet Tannehill would have done way better. Doesn't mean we would have won since Tannehill in Miami was merely average, but he wouldn't have looked lost like that.

    However, that Arizona game is one where I think NO other QB the Dolphins have ever had, except the great Marino of course, would have won that game. And that's with Tua the rookie.
     
  34. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    So it's your contention that even with the overall regime change in Miami, the overhaul of the supporting cast in Miami that Ryan Tannehill would have played yesterday's game...or any other game under the Flores regime the same he played it under the disastrous Gase regime?

    And I'm not knocking Tagovailoa but you do have to be completely objective here...What passes did Tagovailoa make in that Cardinals game that Tannehill himself could not or has not made?

    Again, don't use the "Adam Gase" Tannehill as your model, because we've all seen what Gase does to quarterbacks...use Ryan Tannehill himself!

    Tannehill with the Dolphins against the Cardinals would have won...and Tannehill with the Dolphins yesterday against the Broncos would have won. Tagovailoa was missing WIDE OPEN receivers left and right...receptions that would have continued drives and put us in scoring positions.
     
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Fitz hasn't played better or worse under Flores. That's the only comparison of different coaches with the same QB we have where one of the coaches is Flores. And it's not like the supporting cast we have on offense is any better than during much of Tannehill's tenure. Yesterday was a day where the OL was bad, the running game was close to non-existent, etc.

    So yeah, the Tannehill we saw with Philbin and Gase is the model we should use. Only Vrabel with that impressive surrounding cast in Tennessee has unlocked a different Tannehill. Let's not just assume Flores would do that.

    First, Tannehill still does not have the pocket awareness Tua demonstrated in that game, being able to squirm through a collapsing pocket to make runs for 1st downs. And second, the ability of Tua to consistently read through his progressions with the speed he did in the Arizona game (just talking about that one game) is not something I've seen from Tannehill.

    That was a game where we saw a Dolphins QB "carry" the team when necessary. No, I don't see that from Tannehill, a QB who does well when he's got the right pieces around him. No, Tannehill would have absolutely NOT won that Arizona game.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Once again, we can agree to disagree. I do find it amazing (but not surprising) that you give Tua full credit for pocket awareness against Arizona and seemingly take no credit away for his lack of pocket awareness against Denver. IMO, your key blindspot is that the lack of protection we saw yesterday by the Dolphins OL was typical for the OL during the Tannehill era. Often the OL in front of Tannehill was far worse. I contend that the "lack of pocket awareness" that you perpetually knock Tannehill for is simply 'to be expected' under the circumstances.

    And, for the record, the current pieces around Tannehill are far from impressive. Their OL is a mess due to injuries and the loss of Conklin. They are down to their third string LT and at one point yesterday were also missing their LG and C as well.



    1606138290759.png

    1606138071999.png

    One final note, if you have to caveat "consistently read through his progressions with the speed he did" with "just talking about that one game", doesn't that mean that he is not consistent yet?

    Not hating on Tua. Rookie QBs have a lot to learn. Not sure what happened to his accuracy yesterday, but I like a QB who is accurate and can read defenses. I think Tua will be fine and hope he is a HOF QB some day. But, for right now, he has not done anything that Tannehill hasn't done many many times.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Wait, I fully acknowledge Tua had a terrible game yesterday, including bad pocket awareness. So I'm giving Tua credit for pocket awareness we've never seen from Tannehill (the squirming out and making plays we saw in the Arizona game) as well as faulting him for being a dud yesterday. I just think there was more to it yesterday than a bad OL. Speculation only of course but given that Tua is generally accurate yet was WAY off from target yesterday I think there was some injury/mechanical issue behind this. No proof of that but I suspect it. Either way it's his fault.
     
  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I disagree with you as well on the Tua/Tannehill argument in regards to Arizona...I think we could have won that game with any of the three quarterbacks. Our offense looked excellent under Fitzpatrick and we were really hitting our stride when the bye-week came up and we made the switch. And I agree with Flores making that switch, it was the right time in the season for it. But I also believe we have left points on the field by making the move in all of Tua's starts (which is natural for a rookie...he has to have time to grow).

    So let's simplify this. In order, who is the best QB of the three TODAY? Who's the worst? My list would be-

    1) Tannehill
    2) Fitz
    3) Tua

    Would you agree? Again, the key word there is TODAY. Who's the best/worst right now. We're not talking about potential or career tracks.
     
  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't know about today. I know that yesterday your order is correct, but in the Arizona game it's clearly Tua at the top.

    I also think it's not clear who would win us the most games the rest of the season. I think the greatest variance (highest ceiling and lowest floor) is with Tua, and that the greatest likelihood of improvement is with Tua, which is why I go with him.
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I completely disagree with your "never seen" assessment. It is not a strength of Tannehill's but "never seen" is over the top, IMO.

    How do you know at this point if Tua will show the capability in the pocket in games with poor protection? He is 0-1 at this point.
     
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