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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think they believe they have 1) a QB who knows their system, as opposed to one who'd have to come in and learn it, 2) a QB whose skill set meshes very well with their offensive philosophy and his surrounding talent (especially Henry), and 3) a brief window of opportunity in which to win a Super Bowl, as such windows are typically brief throughout the league.

    Put all that together and it makes more sense to pay Tannehill somewhat more than the going rate for an average QB than it does to acquire another QB and pay him perhaps the average rate.
     
  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Mariota knew the system

    He sucked.
     
  4. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Pittsburgh has a really good defense [maybe the best defense in the league], I want to see how Tannehill throws the ball against this defense.

    Last year. They totally shut Henry down. This year we shall see what happens.
     
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  5. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It's almost like each individual player has an individual skill set or something.

    *shifty eyes*
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's been focused on throughout the thread. In terms of Tannehill's individual skill set, he appears to require a running back on whom the offense is centered and who permits him to capitalize selectively on opposing defenses that are defending predominantly against the run game. All of that has been supported with actual game data.

    Patrick Mahomes for example has a completely different skill set and doesn't have those requirements. So when you give Tannehill what he requires, he plays like Patrick Mahomes, and when you remove it (or its functioning is compromised) he plays vastly differently. Patrick Mahomes on the other hand plays like Patrick Mahomes, regardless of whether he has Tannehill's requirements or how they're functioning.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2020
  7. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    How many wasted years did Patrick Mahomes spend on rebuilding teams with offenses run by Joe Philbin and Adam Gase?

    You can't make blanket statements about Pat Mahomes being immune to failure just because you *think* it would be the case. That's the very thing you're arguing against.

    That said, I agree with you. Mahomes is probably far more robust to failure given what we've seen him do. Still, it's a theory, not a proven fact.
     
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  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I suspect that if Joe Philbin or Adam Gase could've centered their offenses around a Derrick Henry type, it would've afforded them the ability to use Tannehill in the way he's being used in Tennessee, and those coaches would've appeared far more competent.

    Andy Reid on the other hand is centering his offense around Patrick Mahomes.
     
  9. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    After all, they did have a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback starting for them. So either the Heisman doesn't mean jack, in which case...

    Teams that draft quarterbacks that have a Heisman are idiots...
    Quarterbacks that have Heisman Trophies are no better than those who don't...
    Teams that draft quarterbacks high in the draft have so many more issues than just quarterback...
    NFL owners and coaches are just delusional that drafting a top rated quarterback fixes everything automatically...

    Or any number of combinations thereof, which doesn't satisfy a stats guy who just looks at numbers and still blames the quarterback, regardless of the situation.

    The Guy states...
    Well, we could have actually gotten Derrick Henry, we really could have but instead, we drafted Laremy Tunsil in the 1st round and Ju'Wan James in the 2nd...and the Titans drafted Derrick Henry a few selections later. Would it have done us any good if we had drafted Henry? Nope, doubt it!! With the Wunderkind and his WR Bubble Screens, Henry would have never seen the ball, which is why we ended up losing Ajayi. Did Wunderkind give the ball to Ajayi in the red zone? Nope, not at all and the Dolphins were the first team since the 2013 Rams not to have a rushing touchdown in the first 7 games of the 2017 season. Ajayi was pissed, said something and subsequently traded...so actually drafting Derrick henry wouldn't have made a difference.

    But back to the topic, The Titans had 2 Heisman Trophy recipients on their team...Marcus Mariotta (2014) and Derrick Henry (2015) and yet it took a "below average, washed up, never was" quarterback from Miami to lead them to within 1 game of the Super Bowl...and undefeated so far this season.
     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's also Andy Reid. Every QB is great in his system.

    You don't attribute enough credit to coaching stats.
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Heisman Trophy is essentially meaningless in terms of its predictive ability with regard to future performance in the NFL. Consider for example the percentage of NFL Hall of Fame quarterbacks who didn't even come close to winning the Heisman Trophy. Then consider the percentage of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks who came nowhere near that level of accomplishment in the NFL. Then also consider the percentage of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks who weren't even average at the NFL level.
     
  12. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Shaking my head in utter disbelief...

    Andy Reid is NOT centering his offense around Patrick Mahomes. You have really got to learn what you're talking about before spewing such nonsense.

    Donovan McNabb
    Michael Vick
    Alex Smith
    Patrick Mahomes

    Care to guess what they all have in common? They're all MOBILE quarterbacks!!! Reid has NEVER been afraid to let his quarterbacks off the leash and let them run. Geesh, know what you're talking about, will ya?

    Reid is NOT centering his offense around Mahomes. Mahomes fits PERFECTLY into Andy Reid's offense!
     
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  13. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

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    I’m just happy to see the Tannehill debate is still alive and well almost two years since his departure.
     
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  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If you look more closely at the post you responded to here, you'll see I was drawing a distinction between centering an offense around a quarterback versus centering one around a running back. Tennessee's offense is centered around Henry. The Cheifs' offense is centered around Mahomes.
     
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Weird that the Titans offense was pretty putrid before getting Tannehill.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Now you're back to talking about the team and not about Tannehill individually. What I'm talking about here is what Tannehill needs individually to perform at this level, and how that makes him different from other QBs.
     
  17. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    1. Davey O’Brien, TCU Horned Frogs (1938)
    2. Nile Kinnick, Iowa Hawkeyes (1939)
    3. Angelo Bertelli, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1943)
    4. Les Horvath, Ohio State Buckeyes (1944)
    5. Johnny Lujack, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1947)
    6. Paul Hornung, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1956)
    7. Terry Baker, Oregon State Beavers (1962)
    8. Roger Staubach, Navy Midshipmen (1963)
    9. John Huarte, Notre Dame Fighting Irish (1964)
    10. Steve Spurrier, Florida Gators (1966)
    11. Gary Beban, UCLA Bruins (1967)
    12. Jim Plunkett, Stanford Cardinal (1970)
    13. Pat Sullivan, Auburn Tigers (1971)
    14. Doug Flutie, Boston College Eagles (1984)
    15. Vinny Testaverde, Miami Hurricanes (1986)
    16. Andre Ware, Houston Cougars (1989)
    17. Ty Detmer, BYU Cougars (1990)
    18. Gino Torretta, Miami Hurricanes (1992)
    19. Charlie Ward, Florida State Seminoles (1993)
    20. Danny Wuerffel, Florida Gators (1996)
    21. Chris Weinke, Florida State Seminoles (2000)
    22. Eric Crouch, Nebraska Cornhuskers (2001)
    23. Carson Palmer, USC Trojans (2002)
    24. Jason White, Oklahoma Sooners (2003)
    25. Matt Leinart, USC Trojans (2004)
    26. Troy Smith, Ohio State Buckeyes (2006)
    27. Tim Tebow, Florida Gators (2007)
    28. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma Sooners (2008)
    29. Cam Newton, Auburn Tigers (2010)
    30. Robert Griffin III, Baylor Bears (2011)
    31. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M Aggies (2012)
    32. Jameis Winston, Florida State Seminoles (2013)
    33. Marcus Mariota, Oregon Ducks (2014)
    34. Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals (2016)
    I'll give you one here...sincerely! Each and every one of these above listed quarterbacks were deemed the ***BEST*** and of all 34 quarterbacks on this list, only TWO have ever won a Super Bowl, Stauback and Plunkett. That's it! Most were completely busts!

    But if, in yours and so many others' opinion the quarterback is the MOST important player, then why have so many of the BEST quarterbacks above often fail?

    I KNOW the answer but you and others keep arguing against me. The quarterback is "A" piece of the puzzle....not "THE" piece. Bringing up Andy Reid is a FANTASTIC example. Reid has been undoubtedly successful since 2000, with 4 different starting quarterbacks on 2 two different teams.

    What that should tell everyone who has any lick of common sense to them that the MOST important piece of a team's puzzle is the Head Coach, NOT the quarterback!
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where have you ever seen me (or anyone) say anything about how the Heisman Trophy is a measure of how good a QB is in the NFL?
     
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Shaking my head...Tennessee's offense is BALANCED. In this pass happy league, when you see a team that balances it offense, stats boys like you say it's not balanced....it run heavy, citing "below the league norms" instead of actually looking at 25 rushes and 25 passes equals balance.
     
  20. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I never said you said that. You've said the quarterback is the most important player on the team. I've demonstrated to you time and time again that's not the case.
     
  21. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Patrick Mahomes also has explosive players on offense, especially WRs and a top possibly the best TE in the game.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because YOU brought up that the offense is centered around Henry. Simply pointing out, the offense was putrid without Tannehill. So, even IF they were centering the offense around Henry, it wasn't working.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You've never demonstrated anything of the sort, and you completely missed The Guy's point about the Heisman not being a good measure of how good a QB is in the NFL. You can't use the Heisman to determine which QB's are the "best" if it's clearly not a good measure of how good QB's are in the NFL (only in college).

    As far as the most important player on the team, as you so often say "anyone who watches football" can plainly see that the QB is by FAR the most important player on any football team — the HC is not a player btw.

    Since there are no true individual stats in football (closest is kicking, but even there you can't take as many steps as you'd like if there was no defense), the closest "stats" that demonstrate what the teams themselves consider to be the most important player is average salary. Check this out:
    https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/positional/

    QB is by FAR #1 at $7,084,063 average salary followed by left tackle (to protect the QB obviously) at $4,437,278. So regardless of what you think, the teams themselves are valuing the QB to be BY FAR the most important position.

    btw.. what's really interesting for me is that average salary for an offensive player is $3,081,954 while for defense it's $2,819,161. That's 9.3% higher for offense. Statistically based only on points scored vs. points allowed, the offense is a tad over 5% more important in influencing win% than the defense (i.e., variance in change in win% as a function of points scored is higher than for points allowed), so it's interesting to see that average salaries somewhat reflect that.
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And I said that in relation to what Tannehill needs, not in relation to the success of their offense or the needs of a different QB.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Where the rubber meets the road with this is with regard to what opposing defenses are actually defending against.

    In a pass happy league, as you accurately labeled it, defenses are going to defend against the pass predominantly. The Titans have shifted that such that the teams they face defend against the run far more than the league norm. That of course is facilitated by Derrick Henry. They'd be fools to implement such a strategy without such a running back.

    Now, what do you suppose that does for Tannehill?

    Call that "balance" -- call it whatever you want. The point is that it opens up the passing game for Tannehill and lessens considerably the degree of difficulty of his job, in comparison to the average NFL QB.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's a good point and certainly may be true, but consider that teams can face the Chiefs and focus predominantly on defending the pass, as they usually do. Is that a tall order against them? Of course, but it doesn't involve the 180 that playing the Titans does.
     
  27. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Seattle has been a run first team since Wilson took over, maybe even longer.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but here you see a difference between Wilson and Tannehill. Take a look a few pages back at how Tannehill's high passing efficiency (YPA) in 2019 was a function of passing the ball in down and distance situations in which run probability is high throughout the league. We went over it during the game yesterday as well -- you said "beautiful deep throw," and I said "yeah, and it was on 1st and 10, with play-action, against an opposing defense focusing on defending against the run game." Wilson's passing efficiency has no such relationship with run probability. So while Seattle may indeed be run-first, Wilson's performance isn't dependent on it.

    That simply means Wilson's degree of difficulty is higher. He's passing the ball well in situations in which it's tougher to pass the ball well, when opposing teams are defending against the pass.
     
  29. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    So why do you fault Tannehill on what the opposing defense does? It isnt his choice of what they do to defend his team the Titans.

    I think thats a pretty lazy argument to be honest..
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill doesn't have to be responsible for something he benefits from. The point is merely that his passing efficiency is strongly related with run probability.

    Then again with that being the case, the Titans would be fools to do anything different, because based on that relationship (his passing efficiency and run probability), Tannehill's efficiency would plummet to the degree to which they changed their approach and had him pass less frequently in high probability run situations and more frequently in low run probability situations. So in that sense it actually is his "fault."
     
  31. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    So I guess will never find out if Tannehill could succeed without the running game, because Tennessee as a franchise has always been centered towards running the ball, even back to McNair days with Eddie George.
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's essentially embedded within the data already generated with Tennessee, along with the data from Miami. When he had no such running game with Miami, he performed far more poorly, and when he came the closest to having one (with Jay Ajayi), he had his best stretch of performance with Miami. With Tennessee his performance has varied as a function of 1) run probability, 2) stacked boxes defensively, and 3) run game efficiency (yards per carry), to a degree different from other QBs. I think we can make pretty good conclusions on the basis of that, without needing to see him in Tennessee without a dominant run game.

    Then there is the supposed effect of "coaching," as a means of explaining the difference in his performance between Tennessee and Miami. I suspect the variable of coaching however revolves predominantly around the simple act of calling passing plays under conditions of high run probability, and having the effect of that be amplified by opposing teams' attention to Derrick Henry and Tannehill's effectiveness off of play-action. I doubt there is any more "magical" coaching than that going on.
     
  33. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I just want to know who my two buddies are who also voted GOAT! :)
     
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  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    LMAO, I did and if I had to guess, I'd say Resnor was the 2nd one. I personally voted that because I though it was just too funny of an option given the discussion here.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    hahaha
    No, wasn’t me. I’m at above average but maybe elite if he can sustain this level of play for three or four seasons.
     
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  36. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think we should all agree Tannehill = GOAT, as long as the acronym remains unspecified.

    I mean.. Ryan Tannehill is definitely the Greatest Of All Tannehills!
    Maybe someday, Titan fans will say he's the Greatest Of All Titans!
    Even detractors might agree he's the Greatest Of All Teases!
    This might even turn out to be the Greatest Of All Threads!

    What we do know is he's no longer a DOLPHIN (acronym remains unspecified).

    Thing is, real goats have rectangular pupils which gives them 340 degree vision without having to move their head, and that just doesn't fit with Tannehill's lack of pocket awareness, so maybe "GOAT" isn't the best acronym? Hard to say really.
     
  37. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Isn’t the difference between average offensive player and average defensive player explained entirely by the QB’s salary? I may have my assumptions wrong but it looks like if you remove the QB, then the average defensive player is paid more than the average (non-QB) offensive player.
     
  38. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    It just goes to show you how influential the QB is, and how modern offenses depend to such a great degree on good QB performance.
     
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  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont disagree with that general premise.

    My only debate is that not every QB is Mahomes, and therefore it's not a negative to have a skill set that is better off with certain variables.
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another interesting finding with regard to the highlighted portion above.

    There has been ample debate here about who benefited who more, Tannehill or Henry. If Tannehill benefited Henry, then we should expect that Henry's performance would improve in high passing probability situations. For example, on 3rd and 8, when opposing teams are presumably expecting a pass, a run by Henry should be especially effective, given the threat of Tannehill and the passing game in such a situation.

    And of course the opposite pattern should apply to Tannehill -- if Henry is benefiting Tannehill, then Tannehill's performance should improve in high run probability situations. For example, on 1st and 10, with defenses presumably defending the run, Tannehill's performance should improve, given the threat of Henry in such a situation.

    Well, what we see is that the correlation between Tannehill's efficiency (YPA) and run probability, grouped by down and distance, was 0.72 -- as run probability -- and the threat of Henry -- increased, so did Tannehill's efficiency, and strongly.

    On the other hand, the correlation between Henry's efficiency (yards per carry) and run probability was -0.26. So a correlation in the expected direction -- i.e., as passing probability increased, so did Henry's efficiency -- but a far weaker one. In fact it was virtually the mirror image of Tannehill's correlation (i.e., 0.72 + 0.26 ~1.0).

    The finding suggests in my opinion that Henry was benefiting Tannehill more than Tannehill Henry.
     

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