1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    What’s ironic about your statement is that you probably have at least a decent intuition about win probability that you utilize as you watch football games. Quantifying such intuition more precisely with numerical win probability doesn’t mean we’ve left the realm of football.
     
  2. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Maybe I should add a disclaimer about win probability. Theoretically, if you had a massive number of games, then you could do what people who calculate win probability would like to do: compute the probability of winning the game based on historical performance in that exact game situation (e.g., down, distance, score, etc.).

    Thing is, there simply isn't enough data to do that, not even close. That is, you do not have sufficient cases to calculate the probability of winning when a team is leading by 4 at their own 13 yard line in the 2nd quarter with precisely 5:04 remaining and it's 2nd and 16. How many teams faced that exact situation? Yet all the win probability calculators out there will calculate a win probability for you in precisely that situation. For example, pro-football-reference has its own win probability calculator and it gives 60.70% in that situation:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=n5leY

    So clearly they're not really doing what they want to — they're not using actual historical data in that situation.

    Win probability is a theory of how to infer the probability of winning in different situations, and there is no single theory that's proven to be best. That's why you have many different win probability calculators. Pro-football-reference uses normal approximations and expected points, ESPN uses machine learning (meaning it's not only black box to us, it's actually black box to THEM lol.. ESPN loves black box methods as you can see), PhD Football uses logistic regression, Lock and Nettleton uses random forests, Gambletron uses real-time betting market data, and nflscrapR uses a generalized additive model of game outcomes — nflscrapR is actually the only "transparent" one because it's open source.

    So it's important to remember that while the concept of win probability is great, calculating it is not without issues.

    In practice, I'd say the biggest issue is that there are no confidence intervals, meaning they don't give you estimates of how reliable estimated win probabilities are. Unless there is a lot of historical data for a specific game situation (e.g., 1st and 10 at the 25 at the beginning of the game), the uncertainties are probably large, and for rare game situations (like the one I mentioned above) you can probably dismiss the estimate altogether. But we don't know how uncertain because they don't calculate that (a few of those methods actually could estimate confidence intervals but I've never seen it).

    In summary, the concept is great, but the calculation should only be trusted if the game situation occurs often. If it doesn't occur that often, take the estimated "win probabilities" with a grain of salt.
     
    Irishman, FinFaninBuffalo and Pauly like this.
  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    I don’t use intuition. That’s for people who have a “feeling” and guess what’s going to happen. A football game is 60 full minutes and in that time, anything can happen.

    Im watching the MNF game and at one point, using that whole “intuition” guess work or statistical probably, I guess the Saints were supposed to roll all over the Raiders. Well the Raiders needed to settle and execute otherwise the game would be over.

    Well, now the Raiders are leading the Saints 24-17 at the beginnyof the 4th.

    Now Carr looks like he’s in a rhythm but he keeps throwing to Walker and if the Saints are able to adjust, they’re going to pick him off.
    See? You watch the entire game and evaluate based on what you’re seeing.
     
  4. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    And that’s the ball game. The Saints who were leading 10-0 in the 1st quarter lose to the Raiders.
     
  5. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    That's good information. Apply that to the Titans/Jaguars game. The Titans were up 14-0 with 5:43 left in the first quarter, with a Vegas line of -7.5. In the most recent 33 games in the league in which a team favored by 7 to 8 points (inclusive) was leading by 14 points at the end of the first quarter, 32 of them (97%) were won by the favored team.

    Now, the Jaguars managed a touchdown in the final five minutes of the first quarter, which ended at 14-7, so let's refine the above to represent what actually happened in the game. In the most recent 73 games in the league in which a team favored by 7 to 8 points was leading by 7 points at the end of the first quarter, 64 of them (88%) were won by the favored team.

    So it isn't unrealistic to pin a 94% win probability on the Titans up 14-0 with 5:43 remaining in the first quarter.

    Many people's intuition about the win probability associated with being up by 14, or even by only 7, at the end of the first quarter when favored by roughly a touchdown, is likely in need of some fine-tuning by real-world data. Games of that nature are far more "over" already than they may appear to many people.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The Saints' win probability at that point in the game was 77.5%, not the 93.8% associated with the Titans' 14-0 lead.

    In a thousand games of the kind the Saints and Raiders played up to that point in the game, the Raiders would win 225 of them. In a thousand games of the kind the Titans and Jaguars played up to the Titans' 14-0 lead in the first quarter, the Jaguars would win 62 of them. 163 games out of a thousand is quite a difference. We saw one of the 225 for the Raiders last night, whereas we nearly saw one of the 62 (out of a thousand) for the Jaguars Sunday, even though that was far more unlikely.

    Again, many people's intuition about these kinds of things is likely a good bit off.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Anything can happen, but anything is not probable to happen. If anything was just as likely as anything else to happen, it would make no sense to assign odds or a point spread to anything.

    Certainly if someone approached you at the end of the first quarter of a game in which the favored team was up 28-0 and offered you a ridiculous bet that the team winning the game would indeed win in the end, with no point spread, you wouldn't decline it on the grounds that "anything can happen"?
     
  8. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Not necessarily. The problem with your stats and method of determining probability is it relies on a constant. Football is a game played by human beings with 22 individuals whose actions are unpredictable, not to mention the actions of the 7 officials. The unpredictability is what undermines your theory.

    The Atlanta Falcons led the New England Patriots 28-3 in th 3rd qtr in their Super Bowl meeting. Would I make that wager you spoke of? Absolutely not! I understand the totality of the game and take into account the abilities of the opposing team.

    Now had this lead been against the Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions, New York Jets or Cleveland Browns...oh yea, I might very well have.
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    What if someone offered you a thousand bets of that same kind? Would you decline all one thousand of them, or would you think you'd win the vast majority and thereby come away far ahead? Certainly you don't think the Patriots would win every thousand games of that nature?
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    What if, what if, what if...

    If a frog had wings it wouldn’t bump its butt every time it hopped.

    You continuously propose hypothetical “what if’s” instead of actually looking at “what is” when your methodology is debunked due to the unpredictability of the human factor.

    Last night’s game...knowing the history and abilities of the Saints...Brees, Payton, Kamala; historically and the skill set of that team, when they were up 10-0, it would be an almost foregone conclusion the Saints were going to runaway with that game, but the unpredictability of the human factor kicks in. Brees looked awful last night, missing WIDE open receivers, throws too far in front of or behind receivers. Unpredictability due to the human factor.

    Brad pointed out to you earlier. There’s not enough of a consistent sample size of team A playing against team B leading xx-xx with x:xx left in x quarter, executing the exact game plan with the exact same players with the exact precision to determine probability.

    As I’ve said before, anybody can beat anybody on any given Sunday
     
    resnor likes this.
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I have never seen anybody so desperate to discredit a player. It has gotten pathetic.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Here is a link to the all 22 from the Tenn-Jax game. I think he has blocked me but I encourage Guy to WATCH IT and report back his analysis as a homework assignment.



     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Enough with the ****ing stats.... just enjoy this masterpiece.

    A few frames from the TD pass to Humphries:

    At this point he knows that he is going to get blasted but he cannot throw it yet....
    RT17_20.02-2H 2020-09-22 08-27-50.png

    Taking the hit while throwing as normally as possible and not turning away.

    RT17_20.02-2H 2020-09-22 08-29-29.png

    This is 40 yards away..... right in the hands....

    RT17_20.02-2H 2020-09-22 08-30-33.png
     
    KeyFin and resnor like this.
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I'm sure AJ Brown would say he should have caught it and Tannehill would say it was a hair too far. IMO, Brown has to go get that ball. It goes through his hands.

    upload_2020-9-22_8-49-23.png
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Pfffffttttt...

    That's an easy throw that any QB can make.
     
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    He threw some play action passes earlier in the game and those made this a low difficulty throw.....
     
    Irishman, KeyFin and resnor like this.
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    You believe you've "debunked" the position that probability simply exists, while stating that the 2016 Patriots were more probable than other teams to overcome the game situation in the Super Bowl against the Falcons. Can you see the internal inconsistency there?

    The information in post #9724 is in direct contrast to what you said above.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Red zone, red zone, red zone.

    upload_2020-9-22_13-18-12.png
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Nothing in anything I've posted contradicts itself.
     
  20. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

    770
    641
    93
    Dec 8, 2019
    If we were to split hairs with Tannehill's game....he doesn't do a great job with touch passes. Instead of dropping the ball in with a bit of air under it, Tannehill often tends to put a bit more zip on the ball than is needed....so instead of delivering an easy floater to his receiver, it's more like a slow line drive, which is a bit harder to bring in. And if the throw is slightly off target, it's just that much more difficult.



    It's essentially the same thing that happened last week on the end zone throw to AJB. Was the ball catchable? Sure....AJB could have done a better job. But putting a bit more air under the ball would have made for a much easier catch....so Tannehill could have done a better job as well.



    It's not a huge deal in the grand scheme of things....he's still playing at a very, very high level. But that lack of consistency on touch passes is an area where he's not quite at the level of the truly elite QBs.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    While I agree with this, other than Mahomes and, maybe, Rodgers, none of the guys with elite touch passes can match Tannehill when it comes to throws into tight windows or throws on the run.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    An article about what I was getting at earlier regarding running versus passing, with the following in it about last year's playoff game between the Titans and Patriots:
    By way of comparison, Tannehill's EPA per play in the first quarter against the Jaguars Sunday was a whopping 1.37.

    Again, I think you have to scratch your head and wonder why they don't ride him more.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-running-the-ball-back/
     
  23. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

    770
    641
    93
    Dec 8, 2019
    That ball didn't go through his hands
     
    Irishman likes this.
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Interesting stuff from another article here, entitled "Derrick Henry is Teaching the Wrong Lessons About Building an Offense."

    This is what I meant earlier in the thread about the Titans' having been so imbalanced toward Henry against the Jaguars Sunday, despite Tannehill's level of performance. It's as if they're trying to emulate their performance from last year's playoffs, when that's highly unlikely to happen and may in fact get them beaten in games they should win.

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-derrick-henry-rushing-offense-2020
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Impossible to tell conclusively from the video. If it was off,it was by no more than 6 inches. Then we can debate if Brown timed his jump properly, or reached out far enough, etc. Either way, I bet Brown thinks he should have caught it. Harder catches get made every week.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    So far this year the Titans' EPA per play on pass dropbacks is second in the league at 0.49. Their EPA per play on runs is 23rd in the league at negative 0.1.

    Tenn.png

    If the Titans were to theoretically be completely imbalanced toward the passing game and run an average number of offensive plays in a game (63), then based on their performance so far this year, their offense would be expected to score 31 points.

    By contrast, if they were to be completely imbalanced toward the run game and run an average number of offensive plays in a game, then based on their performance so far this year, their offense would be expected to score nearly a touchdown for the other team.

    Obviously the above theoretical situations aren't realistic because there is very likely benefit to the passing game of having the threat of the run and vice-versa, but the statistics are interesting nonetheless in my opinion.

    It won't be long until opposing defenses, if they're smart, are defending the Titans' passing game more heavily than their run game.
     
  27. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    It is interesting but like you said, also not entirely realistic.

    Bottom line is, if something is working just keep doing it. If it isnt, do something else.

    If you're ripping off 5 to 7 yard runs consistently with Henry, lean on that until they stop it.

    Games where they arent creating big per carry yards in the running game, I'd agree they should be leaning more on Tannehill.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  28. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    ***State of the Thread Poll***

    I've just added a poll at the top of this thread to help get a sense of where everyone now stands on Ryan Tannehill as a QB.

    Take a look and vote!
     
    Irishman likes this.
  29. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    This is where you have to look at the Titans’ offensive formula. There’s no doubt the BEST play action pass quarterback is Tannehill. There’s no doubt the best, or at least most effective running back is Derrick Henry.

    The Titans are going to feed Henry, whether he gains a single yard or he gains 10 yards, they aren’t abandoning the run. Because they’re going to feed him the ball, that makes defenses have to adjust, putting 8 or 8 in the box. Well when defenses do that, hello play action pass. If you’re going to crowd the LOS to stop Henry, you’re exposing yourself for play action.

    This is the Titans formula and they’re going to keep doing it. Back in the 60’s during the Lombardi era, their offensive bread and butter was the power sweep. Defenses KNEW they were going to run it and still couldn’t stop them. Until teams can figure out how to stop this 1-2 punch, the Titans are going to roll over defenses all session long.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I voted GOAT.

    Guy of amazing taste.
     
  31. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Lol. I saw there is now a poll. I was wondering who voted GOAT
     
    AGuyNamedAlex likes this.
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    I think that’s exactly right, but again I don’t think it’ll be long until defenses abandon the emphasis on defending Henry.
     
  33. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    He’s still young and it’s early in his career, but barring a catastrophic decline in his performance, abandoning defending Henry would be a DUMB move.

    Walter Payton
    Emmitt Smith
    Barry Sanders
    Marcus Allen
    Thurmon Thomas
    Jerome Bettis

    Just to name a few were were great running backs that were a legitimate offensive threat and had deep careers...although Sanders retired way too soon in my opinion.

    Tannehill is 32 years old. Derrick Henry is 26. Now the life of a running back is “typically” shorter than a quarterback but if Henry and Tannehill continue to play at the level they are for at least 6 more years, you’re going to see the Titans making a run for the Super Bowl each and every year.
     
    resnor likes this.
  34. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    I want to vote “an above average QB”, but if he keeps up this pace he’ll move up into “elite”.
     
    resnor likes this.
  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Tannehill is almost certainly not moving into the "elite" category by the end of the season, despite his last game. Regression is to be expected. My prediction is he'll end up between 0-1 z-score, which probably means between 90-105 passer rating depending on what league average rating is (standard deviation is usually around 11-12 so add that to league average).

    Anyway, whatever happens his games are going to keep this thread alive for a LONG time lol.
     
    resnor likes this.
  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    So far we're at 96.4 with a SD of 18.7. So Z = 1.3 as of now, with a lot to change from here of course.
     
  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    If I were defending the Titans I would be content with allowing Henry to have 30+ carries and 150+ yards, as long as it was coupled by restricting Tannehill to average or below levels with regard to passer rating and YPA. The game against Denver this year was roughly a good example of both of those. The Titans escaped that one with a 16-14 win. Against one of the best teams in the league that's a blowout of the Titans. They would've been blown out in the wildcard round of the playoffs last year under similar circumstances had Tom Brady had merely an average game.
     
  38. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,121
    5,828
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Score was not reflective of that game. 9, 12, and 14 play drives ended in missed/blocked field goals of under 50 yards. Which is 9 points off the board, and 3 short fields for the Broncos. I don't think there is a fundamental flaw with the Titans special teams that makes that performance the expected norm.

    Edit: removed double post
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2020
    resnor and The Guy like this.
  39. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    I would guess something prevented them from entering the red zone often OR they imploded inside the red zone during that game which doesnt have much to do with how well you ran it. I didnt watch myself so I don't want to comment on what did happen.

    If you're offering me the absolute extremes, sure though, but I don't think it becomes easier to stop the pass when that happens.
     

Share This Page