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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, but that really doesn't say anything about the way he played individually in the playoffs. He also "led" the Dolphins to more points in this game for example:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201512060mia.htm
     
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Don't fall for it, Fin. We've already talked pages and pages so even about his play in the playoffs.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You can just point me to the relevant posts, then. I'll take a look at the case you made, if it exists.
     
  4. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Looking at the Ravens game in isolation. Tannehill scored more points in the 1st quarter + the first 2 plays of the 2nd quarter than Baltimore scored for the whole game. Tennessee then turned to Henry to control the clock to ride out the win. Henry may have been awarded the game MVP but it was Tannehill that won that game for the Titans, Henry prevented The Ravens from being able to mount a comeback.
     
  5. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    :cry:

    :deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse::deadhorse:
     
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  6. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    OK I think I have the program. Assuming no errors (lol.. haven't had time to check), I'm finding that IF you define a QB to be average if he has a career z-score of 0.25 or less (below 60th percentile) then about 20% of the top 95th percentile in best 11-game stretches come from that group. Keep in mind that the best QB's have many 11-game stretches in the top 95th percentile. You only asked for QB's.

    The only "average" QB's with an 11-game stretch better than Tannehill were: Nick Foles in 2013, Chris Chandler in 1998, Jim Harbaugh in 1995 and Wade Wilson in 1988 (though this one includes 3 games with 5 or fewer passing attempts).

    Other "average" QB's in the top 95th percentile: Rypien, Bledsoe, Testaverde, DeBerg and Kramer. Dalton didn't make it because league average rating in 2015 was near identical to 2019 so his ratings weren't as impressive when adjusted for era even if he was #2 that year.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2020
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Many thanks as always cbrad.

    That's pretty important info there. Of the QBs who've produced passer ratings that were as exceptional as Tannehill's over 11-game stretches, 1 in every 5 of them were career average QBs.

    So, that sheds light on the likelihood with which Tannehill will continue to "emerge from his cocoon" and play as well as he did in 2019. I certainly wouldn't bet any money on it with the above knowledge in tow.
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill had a mere 14 pass attempts to Derrick Henry's 30 rushes in that game. That imbalance in favor of the run game is wildly different from the present-day league norm.

    So, not only did Derrick Henry prevent the Ravens from mounting a comeback, but he also prevented Tannehill from having a bigger offensive load in the passing game. That's been one of my key points here, that if Tannehill's passing load can be limited, he plays better.

    So replay the first half of that game in the same way it was played, but now insert an average player instead of Derrick Henry at running back in the second half. How successful is the Titans' run game in that scenario, what kind of offensive load does Tannehill then have to assume as a result, and what does that do to his performance?

    So you can argue that Tannehill did X, Y, and Z to help the team win, and that's accurate, but it's also the case that he was able to do that situationally within the kind of limited offensive load that was facilitated by Derrick Henry's ability.

    Consider the highlighted portions of the following as well, which bear not only on the Ravens game but the Titans' whole season:
    https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/slow-down-derrick-henry-titans-stacked-box/
     
  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'll post this again for emphasis:
    Now, which player do you believe caused the boxes to be stacked? Tannehill? Opposing teams responded to Tannehill's excellence by allocating additional defenders to stop the run game?
     
  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Hey now, don't bring football plays into the discussion...... Just look at the run/pass ratio!
     
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL....... doesn't that mean 4 in every 5 WEREN'T average QBs?
     
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  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It does, but 4 of 5 is hardly exceptional.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Wade Wilson's stretch should be eliminated due to the insufficient number of passes.

    How many average QBs by that definition failed to have any 11-game stretches in the top 95th percentile? Wouldn't that predict the likelihood of an average QB having a 11-game elite stretch? Average QBs make up 20% of the top 11-game stretches but a far higher percentage of the number of QBs and number of available 11-game stretches. Even if you only include the QBs in the 40th to 60th percentile, there are a lot of average QBs to never do it.

    Saying 20% of the elite 11-game stretches are from average QBs is one thing. Saying only x% of average QBs ever had elite 11-game stretches says another. Finally, there have been many times more opportunities for average QBs to put together elite 11-game stretches.

    If two average QBs combine for 12 unique 11-game stretches over the course of a season (games 1-11, 2-12, etc) and one of those stretches was elite, is it 1 of 2 or 1 of 12?
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL....... Now we get to the point where you try to define what is and isn't exceptional. LOL. I knew this was coming when you asked the question of cbrad.
     
  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yes it would, but that isn't what we're predicting. What we're predicting is whether Tannehill's 11-game stretch will be sustained at a level above average, and the relevant information with regard to that is the percentage of similarly elevated stretches of play that were accomplished by merely career average QBs.

    In other words, we aren't looking at the likelihood that he can accomplish something he already has, but rather the likelihood that his accomplishing it has meaningfully distinguished him from a career average QB. As it turns out there is a 20% chance it hasn't, and 20% is substantial.
     
  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, but The Guy is correct here is that we're not asking whether ANY average QB could have a top 95th percentile 11-game stretch. We're asking whether a QB who has a top 95th percentile 11-game stretch turned out to be average — Tannehill already had such a stretch.

    Anyway, I wouldn't mind running the program to answer your question except that it's set up to first search for all 11-game stretches and then match QB's so it would be a whole new undertaking to go about it the other way.

    That's 2 11-game stretches: 1-11 and 2-12. So the most number of 11-game stretches during a 16 game season for a QB is 6.
     
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  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He has been claiming that Tannehill is average despite having an elite stretch and has tried to use Foles and Dalton as examples to imply that it is not unlikely. Isn't the relevant question - How likely is it for an average QB to have such a stretch? To do that, you'd need to know how many have had them and how many have not.

    You missed the point of my question. If there were one such stretch from one of the two QBs, is the denominator 2 or 12?

    Let's assume we are restricting the 11-game stretches to only those that occur within one season (not sure if you did that). Let's assume there were 100 average QBs in the mix and they played 7 seasons each and only one elite 11-game stretch occurred. Is it:

    1 out of 100 (the number of QBs)
    1 out of 700 (the number of QB seasons)
    1 out of 4200 (the number of unique 11-game stretches)
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This whole question is assuming Tannehill is average. You are trying to predict the likelihood that an elite stretch was accomplished by an average QB. IMO the question is irrelevant to Tannehill.

    The better question is whether your assumption that Tannehill is average is likely (i.e. how likely is it for an average QB to have an elite stretch).
     
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  19. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Well said. IMO stats have never been a good way to evaluate a QB. There are simply too many variables that influence and affect stats. I've always maintained that Tannehill was capable of elite play b/c he possessed accuracy and had at least average processing speed. It actually wasn't a difficult prediction since Tannehill had had previously done exactly that in the small stretches where his surrounding cast had been at least average. Unfortunately in Miami those instances were too few so those only looking for stat evidence always dismissed it as a small sample size and therefore insignificant. But for someone evaluating the QB instead of the stat sheet, it was pretty obvious.

    Now Tannehill was never an elite QB b/c he didn't have enough elite traits, but he was certainly above average due to his elite accuracy and at least average processing speed. That was why he was able to take an average roster that an average QB was not able to elevate and make them better. He can't carry a bad team on his own, particularly one with a bad OL. He was never going to be able to make plays outside the pocket on his own on a consistent basis. But give him at least an average OL and his positive skills can shine.

    So IMO the answer to your question is that Tannehill was always an above average QB and that given at least an average OL he was always pretty likely to put up elite play.
     
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  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question isn't assuming Tannehill is average. The question is assuming (and acknowledging) that Tannehill had an 11-game stretch that was at the 95th percentile or higher historically in terms of passer rating. The question is, how do such 11-game stretches distinguish career average QBs from other QBs?

    The question is about the meaning of the 11-game stretch, not the meaning of Tannehill.

    Here's an analogy: if someone had a body temperature of 108 degrees, the question of relevance wouldn't be "how likely is it that any one person could have a body temperature of 108 degrees?" The question of relevance would be "what is the likelihood that people who have attained body temperatures of 108 degrees will continue living?" To determine that, we'd have to study the percentage of people who experienced continued life versus death after having a body temperature of 108 degrees.

    Likewise, we're looking here at what's happened for the QBs in the league who have achieved passer ratings in the 95th percentile or higher during 11-game stretches. Did they "live" (have elite careers) or "die" (have average careers).

    Well, 20% of them "died," and so an 11-game stretch of elite play isn't all that distinctive after all.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question of relevance with regard to the highlighted portion above is whether Tannehill has performed in that manner when his surroundings were merely average, as was stated in the post above, or whether he's performed that way when the stars have aligned and his surroundings have been very good (in Miami for example, when he had four first-round picks and a former Pro-Bowler on the offensive line) to exceptionally good (in Tennessee, when he had a very good offensive line as well as Derrick Henry).

    Obviously there is disagreement about the nature of his surroundings in either place, but the question either way is whether his performance is replicable, and for that we need more data. If the stars need to align within his surroundings for him to replicate his performance, then his performance probably isn't replicable. If the necessary surroundings are more easily assembled and sustained, then his performance probably is replicable.

    Right now we don't know that either way, and quite frankly there is nobody here, including myself, who can convince me that we know with certainty the nature of his surroundings on the Dolphins and the Titans. I'll await more data from Tannehill to establish certainty with regard to that.
     
  22. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Basically, whenever he's had at least average OL play he's been able to replicate it. So I see it as pretty likely he'll play above average to elite whenever he has that. And just having high draft picks around doesn't mean it's a very good OL. You need to evaluate film. Based on my film study his OL play in Miami was never very good. It just reached average for a few stretches. You can wait for more stats, but IMO that's a fool's errand. Stats are a poor substitute for QB eval.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    He also never had Derrick Henry (or anything remotely similar) in Miami, and so what was the effect of that on both him and his offensive line?

    Again what we're talking about is the effect of his surroundings on him. If Derrick Henry gets hit by a bus tomorrow (or, more likely, gets injured in 2020), what kind of player will we be looking at? What will that do to Tannehill and his offensive line?
     
  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Annnnddddd the goal posts are moved again.
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Why is that question relevant? Tannehill isn't an average QB.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This!

    And every poster who understood what they were looking at in Miami predicted better things from Tannehill in Tenn or were at least open to the possibility that his play would be better. One poster misunderstood what he was seeing in Miami and predicted that Tannehill would fail. He predicted that repeatedly. When the exact opposite happened, he made it his mission to come up with some rationale why it doesn't count.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    They're both relevant questions, although your first statement technically refers to conditioning on the QB having an 11-game stretch as good as Tannehill's (i.e., what The Guy was asking). I'll try to write a program to answer your question, though when is a question (too many zoom meetings.. I'm in one now lol). So at latest this weekend.

    1 out of 12 for the first question and 1 out of 4200 for the second. And yes, the 11-game stretches are restricted to within-season.
     
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  28. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill would still be above average. Just like in Miami, in the short stretches he had average OL play and no Henry and Tannehill put top 5 QB play.
     
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    80% is far more substantial than 20%. I'm not a gambler, but if you said I have an 80% chance of winning the lottery, I'd play every day.

    You're unbelievable.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    HENRY WASN'T HENRY BEFORE HE HAD TANNEHILL.

    I'm so sick and tired of pointing out this one, SIMPLE, obvious fact.

    Enough already.
     
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  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Here is what The Guy fails to understand. If you have a team that is built to run the ball frequently (offensive system that is installed, plays they have practiced, players they have drafted, roster they have assembled, etc, etc, etc) and you somehow take that ability away (RB injury, OL injury, or game situation) and ask them to throw often, it is simply not the same thing as a team that is built to throw the ball often.

    Teams are a reflection of their coaches. The idea that a QB would step into the starting lineup on a team that was designed to be balanced and just turn into Patrick Mahomes is absurd. The supporting cast, offensive philosophy, and plays that are available are completely different.
     
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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    To emphasis the point further, Henry's first three games with Tannehill as the starter:
    90 yards
    75 yards
    63 yards

    Tannehill's passing yards in those games:
    312
    193
    330

    Teams obviously realized they needed to adjust to account for how much better Tannehill was than Mariota. Henry went nuts for the rest of the season and Tannehill had one of the most efficient stretches of QB play in the history of the league with passer ratings of:
    133.9
    155.8
    131.2
    140.4
    92.2
    133.6
    130.8

    None of that was a coincidence.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2020
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  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You and I don’t know whether he is or not. The beauty of the question I’m asking is that one doesn’t need to know whether he is or not. We just need to know that he had an 11-game stretch like the one he did.

    Again, the question is determining the meaning of 11-game stretches of that nature, not the meaning of Tannehill.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    cbrad determined that an 11-game stretch like that is 4 times more likely to be by an above average QB.
     
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  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    None of that controverts the point that 20% is substantial. 11-game stretches of that nature are far from having been achieved by only elite quarterbacks. One of every five times they’ve occurred they’ve been achieved by average quarterbacks.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Not sure why you think that is surprising. If you change the criteria to include both passer rating and YPA, you'd have even fewer QBs that meet the criteria. Change the criteria to 95th percentile in passer rating and era adjusted YPA to > 9 YPA. They are both important numbers and combined are a better reflection of how well Tannehill played
     
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Ok
    Ok? So you're arguing that is more likely that Tannehill is more likely to be the least likely possibility?

    20% is not more substantial than 80%. So it's more likely that Tannehill is in the 80%, just based on probability.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    9 "average" QBs have had 95th percentile 11-game stretches. Somehow, it doesn't matter to him that it took 700,000 11-game stretches by average QBs to do it.....
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It also took an extraordinary number of 11-game stretches for above-average quarterbacks to do it. The point is that the feat itself doesn't distinguish average from above-average quarterbacks to the degree that it makes it a sufficiently reliable criterion for determining whether a QB is above-average.

    If hypothetically Tannehill had played only one game in 2019, certainly we wouldn't use that game, no matter how good it was, to determine that he's an above-average quarterback. We all know that one game doesn't have that ability. The point here is that neither does his 11-game stretch have that ability to a sufficiently reliable degree.
     
  40. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    There's one factor that can't be rated. There's no measurement for it and that's leadership. Now its only my opinion, as there's no way to measure it, but I'll bet a dime to a dollar that once Tannehill got the nod, his leadership set a tone of confidence on that offensive unit that enabled it to play at the level it did all year.

    After all, this was the exact same offensive unit that Mariotta piloted prior to him being benched. One failed, one excelled.
     
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