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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL..............

    Okay sure...... his 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 YPA are just the same as his performance in Miami, because you have cracked the code..... it is passing volume!!!!!!!

    How about our bet?

    I would bet EVERY PENNY I would have won from you betting against Tannehill's 2019 season.

    Now how much would that have been?

     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Where EXACTLY does he say that Tannehill was DEPENDENT on anything??????????????????

    You also know there were other posts where he directly refuted your claim that Tannehill was different than other QBs in that regard.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point is about the extremity of the situation (1.98 SDs below the league norm in passing volume) and whether it's replicable. You'd be better off just acknowledging that Tannehill's passing volume was extremely low and that, because of his history, it raises questions about whether his performance is replicable.

    I mean in the end you have one year here, versus six. Anything situationally extreme during that one year should raise legitimate questions about whether the performance was anomalous.
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Correlation between pass attempts and passer rating in 2019:

    Mahomes: -0.043
    Garoppolo: -0.078
    Brees: -0.197
    Tannehill: -0.244
    Watson: -0.294
    Cousins: -0.350
    Wilson: -0.383
    Jackson: -0.581

    SHOCKING!!!! SHOCKING I TELL YOU!!!!

    LOL
     
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  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You keep changing the point. Where is the PROOF that Tannehill is dependent?
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But for a 61 passer rating in a low-volume passing game, that correlation (including the playoffs) jumps to -0.65, well higher than anyone's but Jackson's.

    And I've already said several times that I put Jackson in the same boat as Tannehill -- both are dependent on low-volume passing. Watch as Jackson's passer rating plummets as well if his team can't pull off the same extremely low passing load for him he had in 2019.
     
  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're simply disagreeing about what constitutes "proof." The relevant information has already been presented.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But for what really happened, something different would have happened.........

    LOL. There is your proof. There is no significant difference between Tannehill, Brees, and Watson. Done yet?
     
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's the irony in what you're saying -- if he would've posted a passer rating of 135 against New England (again what was a low-volume game), the correlation would've been -0.66.

    So the correlation was deflated by his poor performance (a passer rating of 61) in a low-volume game, which obviously says nothing about his ability in high-volume games.

    Not something you'd want to hang your hat on there I don't imagine, yet you are.
     
  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Stop trying to manipulate the stats to suit your purpose. Here are the numbers. I don't give a flying f*** what you think they mean. The fact remains that there is no "there" there. Your premise is wrong. Tannehill's passer rating does NOT show a strong negative correlation with the number of attempts. That is just a fact. No amount of wishing it away is going to change that.

    Mahomes: -0.043
    Garoppolo: -0.078
    Brees: -0.197
    Tannehill: -0.244
    Watson: -0.294
    Cousins: -0.350
    Wilson: -0.383
    Jackson: -0.581
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm not arguing there is a strong correlation. I'm arguing that his performance historically plummets when there is high-volume passing, far more so than for the league's elite QBs. You're the one talking correlation, not me.
     
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL..... normally, you'd use correlation to show that but........ since the data doesn't support it...... make it up.
     
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Nobody said he can't play poorly in low-volume games. What we're saying is that he can't play well in high-volume games (on average).

    If the task at hand is looking at that distinction, then a correlation is the wrong measure to use, because it'll be deflated by poor performances in low-volume games and will therefore say nothing about his ability in high-volume ones.
     
  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It is NOT the wrong measure to use.

    You claim he performs poorly in high volume passing games. Presumably that is due to the number of passes or the passing situation (you never even attempt an explanation of WHAT is happening).

    He only had four games with more than 30 attempts in 2019. Your theory MUST be that as the # of attempts rise, the poorer Tannehill performs. Well, you'd be WRONG..... AGAIN.

    In every single game, his passer rating was HIGHER in the second half. How the hell do you explain that? Only the KC game featured a higher than normal number of attempts in the first half and his rating was 105 in that half.

    upload_2020-5-26_16-53-20.png

    So, please explain what is happening. How did Tannehill KNOW in the first half that he would have a high number of attempts in the game and therefor should have a lower passer rating?

    Of course the simple answer is the correct answer. In these games, the offense was ineffective in the first half and they switched to a high volume passing attack in the 2nd half. Tannehill responded with passer ratings of 96.8, 129.58, 105.68, and 111.9 in those halves. You have the relationship REVERSED. A poor start was dictating higher passing attempts. Higher passing attempts were NOT responsible for lower passer ratings.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's the relevant information in that regard, with Dalton and Wilson serving as comparisons:

    Ryan Tannehill 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 92.1 (2726 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 75.9 (471 attempts)

    Andy Dalton 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 89.6 (3304 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 82.6 (629 attempts)

    Russell Wilson 2012-2019 Passer Ratings
    Throws 1-30: 97.8 (3437 attempts)
    Throws 31-40: 111 (340 attempts)

    I'm not doing the whole league. If you want to try to refute what I'm asserting above by exploring the whole league, go right ahead.
     
  16. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    irrelevant. Both Dalton and Wilson were on vastly better teams.

    Answer MY QUESTION not some bull**** you came up with.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And they were on those teams for throws 1-30, as well as for throws 31-40. Neither they nor Tannehill switched teams or had an infusion or removal of talent on throws 31-40. And that data answers your question.
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL..... you ignore every question that refutes your uninformed theories.

    What happened for Tannehill IN 2019.

    He was better in the 2nd half than the first half. This was true for high volume games as well. Explain it.
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You're trying to say something about Tannehill's performance in high-volume situations (as you've defined them) in a season in which his volume overall was extremely low. In 2019 he had a mere 18 attempts in 11 games in the 31 to 40 attempts range -- 1.6 per game. Compare that to Drew Brees for example who had 73 such pass attempts in 11 games in 2019 -- 6.6 per game.

    We're not talking about second halves -- we're talking about situations in which the run game and "balance" are out the window, play-action fakes are meaningless, and the QB has to carry the team through the air. Those were virtually nil for Tannehill in 2019.

    If they can replicate that, great -- he'll play well once again. If they can't, his warts will show, as evidenced by the career data in the 31-40 attempts range I posted above.
     
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL.... Just as I thought....... You cannot explain why the cause of the lower passer rating in the "high volume" games WAS THE LOW VOLUME FIRST HALVES.

    Stop deflecting and explain it.
     
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  21. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Checkmate?
     
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  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What you're making a good point for is a more precise definition of the situations Tannehill avoided in 2019 -- those where the run game and "balance" are out the window and the QB has to carry the team through the air when the opposition knows he must pass. "High-volume games" as I coined the term originally is a poor definition of those situations, which is my fault because I defined the term originally, and you've pointed that out well with your findings regarding first and second half performance.

    The fact still remains however that Tannehill's involvement in the kinds of situations I mentioned above were almost nil in 2019, as evidenced by his mere 1.6 attempts per game in the 31-40 pass attempt range (i.e., a more precise definition of those situations). With the Dolphins he had five attempts per game in that range, 453 total, again with a career passer rating of just 73+ on those passes, almost 20 points below his career passer rating in the 1-30 pass attempt range.

    An even more precise definition can be explored on this site -- https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html -- where you can play around all day with different game situations and find none that I'm aware of where the offensive load was taken off the run game and put on Tannehill in a way seen with most other teams. For example, down in games between 9 and 21 points in the second half (more than one score in a winnable game), the Titans passed the ball 62% of the time, whereas the team with the lowest number of pass attempts in the league in 2019, Baltimore, passed the ball 90% of the time in that situation (the league average was 72% in that situation).

    So again, he was able to avoid situations in 2019 that have been problematic for him historically, and I submit his success in the future will be a function of the degree to which that can be replicated. Only more data in the future can determine whether I'm correct.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He was able to avoid the situations in 2019 because the Titans didn’t SUCK.

    2019 situations amount to coincidence. Nothing more.

    everything you’ve tried to show has been shown wrong.
     
  24. Losferwords

    Losferwords Member

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    lol u guys r still going?
     
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  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Is that possible when I was playing chess and he was playing checkers?
     
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  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    None? Really? If I find one, are we done? Do you give up?

    We've been through all this. Teams execute their game plan more consistently in the first half. This is because the score and clock are not dictating the play calling. So rule #1 look at the first half only.

    The most important area of the field is the red zone. Mistakes there take points off the board and lead to losses.

    During weeks 7-17 of the regular season, the Titans threw the ball 66% of the time in the red zone. Only 2 teams threw the ball a higher percentage of the time. The average was 56%. In addition, the league average for success % was 39% with a YPA of 3.7. Tannehill had a ridiculous 68% success rate and 5.8 YPA. Nobody else was close.

    You like to compare Tannehill to Lamar Jackson. The Ravens threw the ball only 40% of the time in that situation (lowest in the league). KC? 56% of the time. Could it be that Andy Reid didn't trust Mahomes as much as Vrabel trusted Tannehill? Well, KC did only have a 34% success rate and 2.6 YPA. Hmmm...... Or maybe, it is just situational football. Maybe teams are playing their schemes and choosing the plays that they feel have the best chance of success against what the defense is doing. Maybe it is not #AllAboutTheQB. Ya think?
     
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  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    You and I seem to be disagreeing about the kinds of situations in which Tannehill's warts have shown historically. Red zone in the first half isn't them. Must-pass situations are. In those situations it is all about the QB. Every offensive player on the field is at a disadvantage because the defense knows what's coming, and it's on the QB, primarily, to use his skill and try to overcome that situation. The rest of the offense doesn't function well unless the QB has the ability to manage that adversity.

    This is where we find vast differences among QBs throughout the league. Some are able to play well in those situations, and the vast majority cannot. And that typically revolves around the individual ability of the QB -- the elites typically play well in those situations, whereas the non-elites have trouble.

    And again, these are the situations Tannehill was able to avoid in 2019, which might explain why he was able to play like an elite -- he simply didn't encounter situations that distinguish the elites from the non-elites.
     
  28. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is complete and utter nonsense and is a perfect demonstration of little you understand about football.

    As has already been shown, Tannehill had no such trouble in 2019.

    You still can't explain why the cause of the lower passer rating in the "high volume" games WAS THE LOW VOLUME FIRST HALVES.

    Stop deflecting and explain it.
     
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  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    3rd or 4th and long (8 yards or more to go). Obvious passing downs. League average? 87% passes. Titans with Tannehill? 90% passes. Jackson, Watson, Garoppolo, Cousins, Wilson, Brady, Prescott, Rodgers, Brees ALL HAD LOWER PERCENTAGE OF PASSES THAN TANNEHILL!!!!!!!!

    You are wrong AGAIN! or is that still?

    Are we done now?
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm agreeing that he had no such trouble in 2019, because he didn't encounter those situations in 2019. How can you have trouble in a situation you don't encounter?

    We've already gone over this and I gave you credit for helping us develop a more precise definition of the situations Tannehill avoided in 2019, that have been problematic for him historically.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    What I'm finding in those situations (again at this site: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/situational-run-pass-ratios--off-.html) is that the Titans, during Tannehill's starts in the regular season and playoffs, passed the ball 86% of the time, which was slightly below the league average of 87%. There were 19 teams in the league that had greater percentages of pass attempts in that situation, ranging from 87% to 98%.
     
  32. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Information means nothing in it's own. It's the interpretation of information that gives it meaning.

    It's just a case where your interpretation and the interpretation of others differ.

    Its pretty clear noone here will ever agree regardless if what either side presents. I'm really shocked everyone keeps posting lol

    It's almost like a social experiment at this point.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Somehow, in your brain, Tannehill completing longer passes than everyone else at a better rate than everyone else, didn't result in them having fewer 3rd/4th and longs.
     
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You are one weird dude...... your solution to a question you cannot answer is to say some unrelated nonsense

    Why was the cause of the lower passer rating in the "high volume" games THE LOW VOLUME FIRST HALVES.

    Stop deflecting and explain it. It is very simple. There are only four games. You should be able to handle it.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Use regular season only. Not all the teams were in the playoffs. Some teams played only at home in the playoffs. Some teams traveled for three consecutive weeks in the playoffs.
     
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  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Pretty amazing that he could have 4 games where he threw more than 30 passes and still have no attempts in the 31-40 range in a game....... weird.......
     
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  37. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    At this point, I'm committed to exposing every one of his lies and bogus theories. I couldn't care less whether he agrees. Everyone else can see that he is full of crap.
     
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  38. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    The problem is that even though this post and stat line destroys every point Guy is trying to make... He will not admit he is wrong. He is trolling himself at this point.
     
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  39. Etrius24

    Etrius24 Well-Known Member

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    You cannot interpret information with Bias.

    I have told Guy several times... He keeps looking for information to support his Bias... He is not letting the information make the statements or conclusions.

    He has it exactly 180 degrees *** backwards.
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That post and this. one - https://thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-207#post-3283454

    Blew his arguments completely out of the water. All he did was change what he claimed he was trying to say..... again.....
     
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