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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    This notion of high volume passing games versus low volume passing games is a silly argument. In 2019, the top ten teams with the highest volume of passing plays were...

    LA Rams (Goff)...626 attempts; 9-7 (39.125 attempts per game)
    Tampa Bay (Winston)...626 attempts; 7-9 (39.125 attempts per game)
    Atlanta (Ryan)...616 attempts; 7-9 (41.066 attempts per game)
    New England (Brady)...613 attempts; 12-4 (38.313 attempts per game)
    Philadelphia (Wentz)...607 attempts; 9-7 (37.937 attempts per game)
    Dallas (Prescott)...596 attempts; 8-8 (37.25 attempts per game)
    LA Chargers (Rivers)...591 attempts; 5-11 (36.937 attempts per game)
    Green Bay (Rodgers)...569 attempts; 13-3 (35.562 attempts per game)
    Arizona (Murray)...542 attempts; 5-10-1 (33.875 attempts per game)
    Cleveland (Mayfield)...532 attempts; 6-10 (33.25 attempts per game)

    Of those 10 teams, only 3 made it to the playoffs
    Of those 10 teams, only 4 had a record above .500

    Of the remaining 9 teams that made the playoffs last season, their volume of passing, in order of volume and overall regular season records are as follows...

    13: Seattle (Wilson)...513; 11-5 (32.062 attempts per game)
    16: Houston (Watson)...495; 10-6 (33 attempts per game)
    18: Kansas City Mahomes)...484; 12-4 (34.571 attempts per game)
    19: San Francisco (Garrapollo)...476; 13-3 (29.75 attempts per game)
    21: Buffalo (Allen)...461; 10-6 (28.812 attempts per game)
    24: Minnesota (Cousins)...444; 10-6 (29.6 attempts per game)
    26: Baltimore (Jackson)...401; 14-2 (26.733 attempts per game)
    27: New Orleans Brees)...378; 13-3 (34.363 attempts per game)
    29: Tennessee (Tannehill)...286; 10-6 (28.6 attempts per game)

    Now some of these quarterbacks didn't start the entire season, due to injury or they were elevated to the starting position, so that has to be taken into account but what we see here is that "volume" isn't near as important as efficiency...and a high volume passing scheme isn't efficient.
     
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    264 of the 512 regular season games played by NFL teams in 2019 (~52%) were of above-average volume, whether by design or by necessity. So a QB's ability to play well in such games is a critical factor in today's game. If he can't play well in such games, then by definition he's dependent on whatever it is that keeps his team out of such games, typically his run game and/or his defense. This is why the formulation in the article linked above has a "Tier 3" quarterback defined as follows:
    Remember that in quarters 1 through 3 in the games Tannehill started in 2019 (including the playoffs), the Titans were 1.98 standard deviations (which is a lot) below the league average in percentage of pass attempts. They entered the fourth quarter of those games with a cumulative scoring margin of +22, meaning that on average they were ahead by only 1.7 points at that point in those games.

    By contrast, Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans, and San Francisco were ahead at that point of those games (7 through 20 in 2019) by +138, +133, +112, and +105 points, respectively.

    So obviously the Titans' choice to limit their passing volume in quarters 1 through 3 wasn't determined by a lead on the scoreboard caused by their passing efficiency, because no such lead of that nature existed. It must've been determined by something else, and I submit that the most likely candidate is Ryan Tannehill's tendency historically to play poorly in high-volume passing games.

    If you attribute part of Tannehill's success in 2019 to coaching, then consider that an obvious and intelligent coaching strategy would've been to limit the passing load put on his shoulders. Any coach who studied his history with a modicum of intelligence and effort would've come to that conclusion and implemented that strategy, especially if that coach had Derrick Henry in tow and could have him shoulder the bulk of the load.
     
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It is a silly argument that is only made by people who don't understand the game. Just a desperate attempt to continue a narrative that was utterly destroyed by the 2019 performance of Ryan Timothy Tannehill III.
     
  4. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    He's a scrub bro...just listen to the dude. I mean, who wants a guy who, despite not starting almost half the season, "left no question about his abilities, and the deep ball was one of many positive factors. On deep routes, Tannehill completed 30 of 53 passes for 865 yards, 584 air yards, seven touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 134.6, which led the NFL. Tannehill did so while throwing into tight coverage on 19.6% of his total passes, sixth-highest in the NFL."
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Anybody who promotes run/pass ratio as an indicator of a coach's confidence in the QB is not playing with a full deck. I have already posted the list of teams that used a high percentage of passes and showed that the "confidence" that their coaches had in them, led to a bunch of them being gone. Anyone continuing that argument is talking stupid.

    I suggest we stop debating with people who don't actually debate football.
     
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  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    When you actually look at the PASS PLAYS to evaluate the passer, it is clear. That is why one certain poster (who I have blocked) refuses to discuss plays. He wants to evaluate the passer based on the plays that weren't passes.

    I have rewatched much of the Titans offensive plays since the season ended. The numbers did not lie. Tannehill was really, really good. Not only in how he threw the ball but also how he ran the offense. But, the throws were nuts. I saw a 10 best Tannehill plays video and it didn't even include the 91 yard TD pass to Brown against the Raiders. I can think of 10 more that were legit "holy crap" throws.

    Only a twit would look and Tannehill's performance in 2019 and look for ways to discredit it.
     
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  7. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    [​IMG]
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The playoff game against the Ravens is a great example. Here is great video breaking down three great plays by Tannehill that essentially sealed that game.

     
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  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    More good stuff from JT O'Sullivan.

     
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  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Isn't the stat for above average volume simply a function of losing teams needing to pass more? On the surface, it wouldn't appear that that stat does anything to indicate that higher than average passing is a function of winning.

    Balanced offense is important. Unless you can show that balanced teams fare no better than unbalanced teams, or that high volume passing teams fare significantly better than the other teams.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Interesting video breakdown of Tannehill against the Saints:



    Closing thoughts:

    Andrew Sowder - "I was really impressed with Tannehill and you can see why they gave him the contract that they did and they feel like he is the quarterback of the future. I think he has obviously got some talent, some athleticism, and that fight you were talking about on the previous play "
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    That accounts for the vast majority of the difference in passing volume. cbrad pointed this out pages ago. Most of the rest is coaching philosophy and team construction. A tiny fraction may be related directly to the QB's abilities. This can easily be seen by looking at the records of the teams as you pointed out.

    Want some additional evidence of that?

    KC 1st half passing percentage with Mahomes and Moore at QB:

    Mahomes - 69%
    Moore - 68%

    What other explanation for this similarity does anyone need other than coaching philosophy and team construction. In the two games played by Moore, they were tied at the half against GB and leading at the half against Minn. In the first half of those two games, KC was free to call the plays they wanted.

    They chose to call a very similar percentage of passing plays with Matt Moore as they did with Mahomes. Either somebody would have to think that Andy Reid thinks Moore and Mahomes are similar in ability or they have to admit that KC has an offensive philosophy that they don't deviate from unless they have to.

    Finally, only someone with an obvious bias would accept the offensive philosophy argument for KC and reject it for the Titans.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It's a matter of whether you have to have balance or you can win without it. Like I said, about 52% of the regular season games in the league last year involved above-average passing volume.
     
  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again...so what? Half the teams that play every week, lose.

    Losing teams pass more.
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Hypothetical team is losing by 17, and the starting QB for that team already is 7-16, 100 yards, 0 tds, 2 ints. That team IS STILL going to be very unbalanced, and it's going to be throwing a ton, EVEN THOUGH that QB is playing terribly.

    High pass volume is not proof that teams are passing that much because they trust their QB to do it.
     
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  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The Super Bowl in 2019 for example was won in a high-volume passing game. They're winnable.
     
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Contrast his analysis of Tannehill with his analysis of Lamar Jackson in the same game.

     
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, the point is how much flexibility and likelihood the QB gives the team to win in more than one way.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    More good stuff on the Tannehill drive to beat the Chiefs.

     
  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    That literally has nothing to do with my post.

    1. You post stats that show that 52% of the league is in a high volume passing situation every week.

    2. I point out that it should be expected that half the league is in a high volume passing situation, since losing teams pass more.

    3. You argue that it's possible to win a high volume game.
     
  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    OK, so what's your point?
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    My point is that trotting out that statistic does not in any way, in and of itself, support your premise that better QBs are involved in high volume passing, nor does it support, in and of itself, that teams with high volume passing are more likely to win.

    Until you can show that age old you-need-a-balanced-offense premise is wrong, I will default to that.

    Yes, it's great to have a QB that can support high volume passing when necessary. However, having a relatively even split between rushing and passing, or even unbalanced with the rushing attack having more attempts, does not, in and of itself, support your premise that the balance means anything in regards to the QB.
     
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  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He has also claimed that a lower percentage of passing plays made Tannehill’s job easier despite official statistics that show otherwise. He provides no evidence whatsoever that the throws made by Tannehill were easier and no counter to the evidence that they weren’t.
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I never made either of those points. What I said was that some QBs don't show the decrement in performance Tannehill does in high-volume passing games. I also stated that a decision about run-pass ratio should theoretically be based on the ability of the QB and not the ability of the running back, since EPA per passing play are so much greater than EPA per run play.

    The highlighted portion above is the point, again because roughly half the games in the league feature above-average passing volume. Whether Tennessee's particular type of "balance" in 2019 had to do with Tannehill's historical limitations in high-volume passing games is unknown. I stated only that a head coach would be smart to limit his passing volume given his performance in high-volume games historically, and that he benefited from that limitation in 2019, whether it was intended to address his personal limitations or not.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Any quarterback who shoulders significantly less of the offensive load than the average QB in the league has an easier job than the average QB in that regard, let alone the ones above-average. The throws Tannehill made in 2019 were made within the context of having that light a load on his shoulders. Who knows how he would've performed had the offensive load on him been what it was with Miami. That change alone could've made a world of difference in his performance.

    Again this viewpoint isn't anything special. Note the following:
    https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2...lphins-learn-from-tannehills-postseason-push/
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But the point is, Shou, that you haven't shown that the reason those teams are passing more is because they're winning. Since the losing team generally throws more (cbrad has shown that), it would stand to reason that the team involved in the high volume would be the losing team. So, that would mean that the winning team was actually more balanced, and therefore more likely to not be a high volume team that game.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You clearly haven't played sports. Making difficult throws is very difficult if you aren't throwing a bunch. That's why to start games and drives, you see NFL offenses run many simple run plays and short passing concepts. It's to let the QB warm up.

    But we are to believe that Tannehill making the hardest throws in the league, into some of the smallest windows, at like the deepest ypa in the league, ALL WHILE getting limited attempts, means he had it easier than a guy who the 30 times a game, with 22 of the throws being short passing concepts.

    Again, you need to actually understand the game to know these things.
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Let's focus on Tennessee, the team Tannehill played for. Tennessee's percentage of pass attempts was barely shy of two standard deviations below the league average in quarters 1 through 3, in the games Tannehill started in 2019 (including the playoffs). They entered the fourth quarter of those games ahead on the scoreboard by an average margin of only 1.7 points, and so their overwhelming emphasis on the run game wasn't a product of being comfortably ahead on the scoreboard during that part of their games (quarters 1 through 3).

    What was it a product of, in your opinion?
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Boy, with all that going on, you'd think Tannehill's performance would be a lot better in high-volume passing games than it has been historically. According to you, just get him warmed up and he's good to go.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, we've gotten more diffusivity earlier in the thread. But Tannehill was throwing deeper than others, competing more of then than others. It stands to reason that because Tannehill was so effective with his throws, and Henry running as well as he did ONCE TANNEHILL was the starter, it leaves fewer attempts to go the field. You still have never, EVER shown that Tannehill's fewer attempts does not have anything to do with the fact that it took him feet it's to get it done.

    TLDR: Tannehill threw farther more effectively and therefore needed fewer throws to score.
     
  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So let's go here again: how do we measure this (the highlighted portion of your post)?
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Even in high volume games you need to have decent blocking and receivers making plays. QB can put the ball where it needs to be, but the receiver Needs to make a play.

    If you'd watched the Dolphins games where it was high volume, you often saw terrible blocking not allowing routes to develop, and receivers not making plays.
     
  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What do you mean?

    You can look at his YPA and his completion percentage.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    We've already done this. The correlation between his YPA and his passing volume, game-by-game in 2019, was -0.06, which indicates those variables weren't related at all. So it's impossible for his high YPA to have caused his low passing volume.

    Tennessee wasn't passing the ball as little as it did in 2019 because of Tannehill's efficiency.

    Now, the correlation between Derrick Henry's yards per rush and Tannehill's passing volume, game-by-game?

    -0.64. An overwhelming difference. The more efficient Derrick Henry was, the less Tannehill passed the ball, not the more efficient Tannehill was.
     
  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Agreed to disagree.
     
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  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Simple answer is that teams aren't concerned with getting to a threshold floor for throws. The fact is, Tannehill threw farther and more accurately than any other QB in the league. Fact is, that lead to scores. Scores are what matter. So whether you can prove it with your stats is meaningless. The coaches called the plays they wanted run, and Tannehill executed them. And he routinely threw more difficult passes without being afforded easier throws to get him warned up to make those difficult throws... And he completed more than anyone else.

    You can keep quibbling over things you don't know, and will never know (like the actual reason why the coaches called games the way they did), and I'll simply go by what I know to be fact.

    1. Tannehill was asked to make the deepest, hardest throws in the league, into some of the tightest windows.

    2. The Titans signed Tannehill to a pretty significant contract.

    So, regardless of what you think you see, the Titans were very happy with Tannehill's performance, and believe in him for the future.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2020
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  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, I'll tell you, that for that to mean ANYTHING, you'd need to show that that relationship is different than with other running back QB combos.

    Intuitively, when a running back is running well, you keep running him. That's what teams do. When the back is hot, you feed him. And you hope that your QB stays sharp enough, with limited attempts, to hit on the few chances he gets.
     
  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Tennessee has always been a RUN FIRST TEAM, back in the McNair and Eddie George days.... why would you discredit the QB because of a STUD RB? Do you think McNair would still been "Air McNair", without Eddie George? I think he would. Same concept applies to Tannehill
     
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  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Ryan Tannehill completed better than 70% his passes for more than 9 yards per attempt this season. The last time that happened in the NFL was Joe Montana in 1989.

    Interesting chart on the QB/RB combo

    [​IMG]
     

    Attached Files:

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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Already done. The correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and Derrick Henry's yards per rush, game-by-game in 2019, was 2.2 standard deviations (which is a lot) above the league average. The league average correlation between yards per rush and passer rating, game-by-game in 2019, was almost nil.

    None of that implies that a running back's performance and a quarterback's performance should be correlated, however, and in fact in 2019 across the league they were not. However, the correlation between Henry's yards per rush and Tannehill's passer rating, game-by-game, was astronomical, comparatively speaking. Tannehill and Henry were the outlier in that regard.

    We've already done all this. You're circling back to it, however, and so unless you have anything new to add, I don't think there's any more to say.
     

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