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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    upload_2020-5-7_9-31-54.gif
     
    Irishman likes this.
  2. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Cant wait for this season.

    This thread is going to be classic. Lol
     
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  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Asking me to debate imaginary numbers is far fetched.

    No imaginary numbers.
     
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  4. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Why is 2018 being used? Wasn't he playing hurt? And he only played 11 games that season.

    Further, using his first couple seasons to judge anything is crazy. He was incredibly raw, everyone knew he needed a couple seasons to get up to speed. He wasn't even supposed to start his first year.

    Pretty hard to develop behind Philbin, and Lazor and Sherman etc.
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I thought Lazor did a good job with Tannehill's mechanics. His footwork, throwing motion, and how he held the ball in the pocket all improved. IMO, Lazor should stay as a QB coach. He keeps getting promoted to OC and it didn't work out in Miami or Cincy.

    Philbin and Sherman were disasters. Philbin is back to being an OL coach, where presumably he has had some success. Sherman is a dinosaur that hasn't been back in the league. Apparently GO/GO GO was too much for the rest of the league to ignore.
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue is that CPOE is a measure of the difference between 1) the expected completion percentage, which is largely a product of the QB's surroundings, and 2) the actual completion percentage, which is largely a product of the QB's individual ability and performance.

    The argument that Tennessee's surroundings in 2019 were nothing special is based in part on the fact that Tannehill's expected completion percentage (which again is largely determined by surroundings) wasn't above-average in the league.

    However, when we look back at his years with the Dolphins, we find that his expected completion percentage wasn't significantly different from what it was in 2019 (in fact in 2018 it was higher).

    So the question becomes, if his ability is what it is, and we control for the impact of surroundings by simply taking the difference between expected and actual completion percentage, then why didn't he simply complete passes with Miami to the same degree above what was expected as he did in Tennessee?

    The available evidence suggests that wasn't happening, however. What it suggests is that his CPOE in Miami was average but for the 2016 season. So that runs counter to the idea that 1) Tannehill's surroundings in Miami were especially poor, and 2) he was somehow exhibiting superior individual ability in Miami despite that.
     
  7. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Last edited: May 7, 2020
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This sums up my thoughts the whole mess:

    https://www.lockedondolphins.com/dolphins/tannehill-save/

    Tannehill received a contract extension prior to the 2015 season. He is due to be on the Dolphins payroll through 2020. Surrounded by a horde of players that have completely washed out of the NFL, Tannehill has managed to survive.

    Two things in the NFL typically win out: talent and continuity.

    Miami has had neither.

    Varying offensive line combinations, barely-known tailbacks, rag-tag receivers that accomplish nothing once they’ve moved on from Miami, the cycle has been vicious.

    Yet, Tannehill is still standing

    Let’s start with the worst – the offensive line. Five years, 38 linemen that have played what equates to about 1.5 full games in a given season. In the most extreme cases, Dallas Thomas registered 99% of the team’s snaps in 2015. Jonathan Martin was the right and left tackle in 2012, logging 99% of the team’s offensive reps. Both of these players were out of the league two years after their departure.

    Every year of Ryan Tannehill’s career, he has played with at least one offensive lineman (sans 2016) that graded among the five worst players at their position.

    Brian Hartline and Davone Bess are household names among the Dolphins community. However, their production, once they left town, took a severe dip. In fact, the one player that has had more success post-Dolphins career was Rishard Matthews. Outside of him, every single wide receiver and tight end that has left Miami, saw reduced production.

    Production decrease would’ve been a better outcome than many of the former Dolphins skill-players endured. Most of the former ‘Phins saw their careers come to an end in Miami – which proved to be a last-ditch effort to jump-start an otherwise brief NFL career.

    Ryan Tannehill isn’t going to rescue a failing outfit from the ashes. But the idea that he doesn’t elevate the play of those around him is simply not true – the proof is in the numbers. If the problem in Miami is the quarterback, then why have so many players left Miami and subsequently disappeared from the NFL?
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2020
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And here's the problem with analyses like that one:
    When has anyone ever seen an analysis like the one above that makes a comparison between the Dolphins and other teams in the league?

    Certainly if nearly every team in the league functions with at least one relatively poor offensive lineman, then the fact that the Dolphins did is hardly noteworthy.

    When there is no comparison among teams in these sorts of analyses, then no definitive meaning can be made about any findings with regard to the Dolphins.
     
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But here's what we have as recently as a few months ago, with a new team:

    At the start of the fourth quarter of Tennessee's playoff game with Kansas City, the Chiefs were ahead 21-17 and were 89% likely to win the game. Here are the plays involving Ryan Tannehill from that point on:

    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Corey Davis for 15 yards (tackle by Bashaud Breeland)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Derrick Henry for -2 yards (tackle by Damien Wilson)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short middle to A.J. Brown for 5 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Tanoh Kpassagnon for -8 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short left to Derrick Henry for -6 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short right intended for Corey Davis (defended by Bashaud Breeland) (defended by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short left to Jonnu Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Jonnu Smith for 8 yards (tackle by Bashaud Breeland and Rashad Fenton)
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Corey Davis for 22 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Tanoh Kpassagnon for -2 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete deep middle to Anthony Firkser for 22 yards, touchdown
    Ryan Tannehill left end for 6 yards (tackle by Daniel Sorensen). Penalty on Chris Jones: Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards
    Ryan Tannehill pass complete short right to Adam Humphries for 9 yards (tackle by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short left intended for Adam Humphries (defended by Tanoh Kpassagnon)
    Ryan Tannehill pass incomplete short middle intended for A.J. Brown (defended by Tyrann Mathieu)
    Ryan Tannehill sacked by Frank Clark for -17 yards

    EPA per play for the above was a very low -0.21. Three sacks in one quarter.

    He had 16 plays there, and so during that period of time his performance was associated with 3.36 expected points for Kansas City.
     
  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Already done and you know it. They were LAST IN THE LEAGUE FROM 2014-2015 in roster turnover.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And what is that a function of? Coaching changes, perhaps? The team just traded Laremy Tunsil and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Did they suck as well?

    You're all about the sophisticated analysis that incorporates numerous explanatory factors, until such time as a simple explanation for the findings favors what you already believe. Then we're okay with simple stuff.
     
  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah I was talking about his OC work.
     
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  14. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL......but, but, but he didn't beat the best team in the league, on the road, in the playoffs, after 3 previous straight weeks of road games (including beating the two other best teams in the AFC, in the playoffs, on the road), he CAN'T be good.......
     
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  15. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah that doesn't answer my question.
     
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Why wouldn't you expect the quarterback with the highest passer rating in the league to perform any better than that? 3.36 expected points for the other team? That's what you'd expect out of somebody like Josh Rosen.
     
  17. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Sure, that was part of it (that also affects the QB). If that were all of it, then by all means, point to the success of the departed players. I mean, you're implying they weren't bad players. Treat me to a review of their post-Dolphin career highlights. I'll wait.
     
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  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL......... now were down to focusing on 16 plays from the whole season. Ha, ha, ha.......
     
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  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again, what is the rate of subsequent success of departed players from any team? That's always the problem here -- no league-wide comparison.
     
  20. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    No, what we're focusing on is whether his 2019 statistics are predictive of his performance at the times when quarterbacks are needed to carry teams. As it turns out, his performance during that period of the Chiefs game would've been better predicted by Josh Rosen's 2019 statistics.

    Now compare that to what Patrick Mahomes did in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl. There, you have performance that was predicted by statistics.
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL...... rather than rambling nonsensical questions, why don't you answer some of the questions with real analysis? You figure it out.
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Ah, the "when QBs are required to carry teams" nonsense....... you truly are desperate.
     
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  23. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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  24. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    So, an article claims that Mahomes is the best QB in the league, especially when trailing. Okay........ Not sure that was part of the debate.

    Do the other 31 teams just give up?

    BTW, Tannehill was 1-1 vs that QB last season.

    Due mostly to their 2-4 start, the Titans finished the season with 4 consecutive must win games, all on the road. They went 3-1.

    Tannehill had 8 total TDs and 1 INT in that stretch. The Titans averaged 26.75 points per game, on the road, against playoff teams, losing only to the eventual SB champion in what may be the toughest road stadium in the league. The last three of those games were against the #1, #3, and #7 scoring defenses in the league.

    Not sure how you can twist that into a negative, or more importantly, why you would even try.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2020
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue is that Tannehill played well last season when he was in a low-volume/game manager role in which his percentage of pass dropbacks was very low. The question becomes whether that's replicable.

    If it isn't replicable, then he stands to face a situation in which he has to carry more of the offense. He didn't play anywhere near as well under those circumstances in 2019, highlighted by the AFC Championship game in which his team needed him to perform like Patrick Mahomes did in the Super Bowl.

    Not only did he not perform like Mahomes in the Super Bowl, he performed about like Josh Rosen at that time.

    So the question, really, is about how predictive his 2019 statistics will be for his future performance when 1) due to situations within single games, he has to carry his team with the passing game, and/or 2) over the course of a season, he's unable to remain in a low-volume/game manager role.

    Anybody who's placing a bet on how well Tannehill will perform in 2020 would be wise to hinge the bet on the likelihood that Tennessee as a team will be able to replicate Tannehill's low-volume/game manager role.
     
  26. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Find me the game where Josh Rosen played in the AFC championship game on the road against the #7 defense and we can continue that comparison, otherwise it is more of your nonsense.

    Two games against KC and Mahomes last season:

    34 of 50, 390 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs. 117.9 passer rating. 1 win, 1 loss.

    I can see how you would think it is a QB problem, not.

    Anyone who would have bet in 2019 based on your opinion of Tannehill would have lost everything. I would think that would temper your enthusiasm for your predictions, but sadly no.

    And, answer by question, do the other 31 teams give up? If no, then your argument that Tannehill is not Mahomes is nonsensical.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2020
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  27. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I found a video of "The Guy" identifying the plays from 2019 that he is willing to discuss.

     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm pretty sure you can nitpick any section of almost any game that wasnt played entirely flawless and point to a time the QB in some way helped the other team.
     
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  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Ryan Tannehill's passer rating in the AFC Championship game - 108.1
    Josh Rosen's career passer rating - 63.5, Career high - 88.9, Career high in a road game - 77.4


    It is silly things like this that cause people to not take you seriously.
     
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  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Next he will only want to talk about incomplete passes, sacks, and INTs.......
     
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  31. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Yes you could, but it becomes far more relevant when 1) the QB in question has achieved success in a low-volume/game manager role, 2) his performance plummets when he's not in that role, and 3) the section of the game being analyzed is highly important and takes him out of that role. All of the above is true for Tannehill in 2019.

    The larger issue, as I've mentioned frequently through the thread, is whether Tannehill's performance is sustainable. If his performance is dependent on a low-volume/game manager role, obviously his performance is less sustainable than it would be if his performance wasn't so dependent on that.
     
  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Well, we have all learned that sacks are always the fault of the QB, and that oline play is basically the same league wide.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But you ignore the games where Tannehill played well in pressure/must win situations.

    It's silly. Tannehill put on a clinic last season.
     
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  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    And what were those?

    Or is it my job now to go look up numbers and refute your assertion, because whatever "resnor" says, with no supporting evidence, should be considered valid until someone else disproves it?
     
  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You'll have to do the comparison against all the other QBs in the league before we can be sure. I see no evidence that his dropoff is any different than normal. I'm pretty sure you've already been shown otherwise, multiple times. Rather than revisit Tannehill. Show me how all the other QBs do. The assumption should be that Tannehill is normal in this regard, right? Show me otherwise.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I have it on good authority that Tannehill exhales EVERY time after he inhales. I don't think that is sustainable.

    I also heard that he puts his pants on one leg at a time, loser....

    Finally, it is left-right, left-right, when he walks. Any time he is forced to to left-left-left-both-left-left...... he stumbles....How the hell is he going to compete in the hopscotch champions with Mahomes?
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Excluding Tennessee, the average team in the league in 2019 exhibited a difference in passer rating between low- and high-volume passing games of 13.85 points, with a standard deviation of 15.59.

    In his 11 regular season games, Tannehill's average difference in passer rating between low- and high volume games of 38.5 points placed him 1.58 standard deviations (i.e., z-score) below the league mean.

    Only three teams were worse in 2019, and those teams' z-scores were -1.75, -1.65, and -1.63.

    Combine that with the fact that Tannehill's percentage of low-volume passing games in 2019 was second in the league only to Lamar Jackson, and you have the finding referenced above, whereby the sustainability of Tannehill's 2019 success is likely contingent upon his remaining in a low-volume/game manager role.

    There's a reason why the Titans went into the playoffs riding Derrick Henry and keeping Tannehill's passing volume extremely low (six standard deviations below the league norm against New England and Baltimore), despite having the league leader in passer rating.

    Now one can perhaps see why his performance at the end of the game against Kansas City in the playoffs was so significant -- it was the first time in the playoffs he was relegated to a high-volume/non-game manager passing role and had the offense put on his shoulders.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Now do the analysis for all the guys who average passer rating was in the top quarter of the league. A rating from from tops in the league (e.g. 130) to 92 is not the same thing as a drop from 100 to 86.

    Basically I don't trust your numbers or your analysis. cbrad has already shown that Tannehill's dropoff is within expectations for similarly performing QBs.
     
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  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Every game he played. He took over a 2-4 team. Every game was a high pressure, must win game. He went 9-4 and led his team to the AFC Championship.

    The first 10 of those games was a 7-3 record with a 117.5 passer rating and 9.6 YPA.
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He only played 10 regular season games. This is why you cannot be trusted. Also, include the playoff games.

    What did you use as the number of attempts that signifies a high volume game?
     

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