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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Then you should place a large bet on his being the league MVP in 2020. His odds of that are currently so much worse than Brees’s that you stand to win a boatload, depending of course on how much you bet.

    Make sure to report back and tell us how much you put down.

    This is precisely how professional bettors function. They discover a discrepancy between their own appraisal and Vegas's and then attempt to exploit it to their advantage.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  2. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Dude. Just because YOU label something the "null hypothesis" (lol wtf?? Hahaha) doesn't mean it is.

    The dolphins were bad. The coaching was bad. Player acquisition was bad. Management was bad.

    We were the Browns almost.
     
  3. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The null hypothesis is certainly that a team is average until proven otherwise. That's the norm in the league.

    What you prove is whether a team differs significantly from that. That's the alternative hypothesis.

    And again, your "proof" of that doesn't even contain the most basic ingredients necessary -- a comparison between the Dolphins and the league norm. It's impossible to say the Dolphins differed from the league norm when you don't even have the information necessary to make a comparison in that regard!

    Again, you're okay resting on science when it supports your belief, that Tannehill differed significantly in 2019 from his career norm. When you don't have that kind of information, however, you simply relax your evidentiary standard. A socially constructed message board narrative will do, then.
     
  4. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    The alternative hypothesis was proven. Period. Every coach he had has failed elsewhere as well. Tannehill has succeeded spectacularly in his only chance outside of Miami.
     
    resnor likes this.
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    For 2019, person A predicted a Miami-level performance from Tannehill. Person B predicted a top 10 performance. Who was correct?
     
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  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    ALREADY ANSWERED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    You just keep cycling through your tired arguments again and again and again.........

    Post #6987:

    Your response post #6992:

    Finally, you ADMITTED in post #7000 that the OL turnover was an issue and that it CONTINUED after Tannehill left.

    Now STOP pretending that this hasn't already been addressed. It is a pain in the *** to have done the research only for you to regurgitate the same defeated argument a few weeks later.
     
    resnor likes this.
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, YOU are the one assigning the meaning to null hypothesis.

    Feel free to do so, but don't expect everyone else to agree.
     
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Does the assertion that the supporting cast of a team was "exceptionally good" require support? You've made that claim about the Titans numerous times. I don't recall ever seeing an objective supporting case. Care to provide one that doesn't involve muddying the waters with Tannehill stats from Miami?

    I've shown that the supporting cast did not make the passing game easier. You've acknowledged that. Where is your evidence to the contrary? Tannehill had the 8th LOWEST expected completion %. Moreover, his expected completion % was nearly identical to Mariota's (further evidence that it was the supporting cast/system that was responsible for the expected completion %).
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
    The Guy and resnor like this.
  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah that comeback player of the year prediction was impressive, playoff prediction was 50/50 at the time.

    However, let's not forget the cases where you made incorrect predictions. Most notably that defense wins championships thing you keep repeating, which is simply false from a statistical standpoint (offense is about 5% more important than defense). That was put to the test last year, and guess who won: z-scores > The Dark Knight.

    Not only that, I made a very impressive prediction using z-scores alone: the most likely final score of the SB would be 30-17. The final was actually 31-20. No one else made a prediction that good.

    You were also wrong, and I was right, about whether a well-balanced team like the Titans or SF would win the SB or a team that relied more heavily on the QB. I pointed out that statistically speaking you're more likely to see a team that does NOT buck the recent trend. That wasn't a prediction based on formal statistics, but still.. the trend > the anomaly.

    So yes, the comeback player of the award prediction was impressive, but overall you're not doing better than guessing IMO.

    Anyway, like I said, you just made this thread more interesting with your prediction so let's see what happens. It would seriously be the first time in NFL history if you're right, and if you're right that's far more impressive than the comeback player of the award prediction. But if you're wrong.. I suggest you re-evaluate and give z-scores more credit in the future.
     
  10. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I lauded the effort in attempting to find something that approximated a measure of quality of surroundings, rather than letting the conclusion in that regard rest exclusively on the agreement of (some) people on a message board. However, we still don't have anything close to a measure of the quality of Tannehill's surroundings 2012-2018 and its degree of deviation from the league norm during that period.

    This is partly why I choose to say the matter is inconclusive at present. I'm actually giving the issue some of the benefit of the doubt, rather than concluding that his surroundings 2012-2018 weren't worse than average.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    For anyone who wanted to bet on Tannehill in 2020, that would certainly be the best evidence to use in support of it. That's your best finding of the entire thread.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The null hypothesis simply represents that there is a norm. If you treat the alternative hypothesis as the null hypothesis, you're essentially saying the exception to the rule is the norm. That doesn't make any sense.
     
  13. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Well, you purposefully ignored this:

    Does the assertion that the supporting cast of a team was "exceptionally good" require support? You've made that claim about the Titans numerous times. I don't recall ever seeing an objective supporting case. Care to provide one that doesn't involve muddying the waters with Tannehill stats from Miami?

    So from now on, I'm going to assume the null hypothesis on the Titans supporting cast on offense (and that you agree with that). Combine that with upper echelon passer rating, YPA, and CPOE numbers by Tannehill and one can only be left to conclude the QB was responsible for the majority of the passing game success.

    The only thing you have left is that you doubt Tannehill will have continued success. To that I counter:

    Performance from a clean pocket, per PFF’s data scientists Eric Eager and George Chahrouri, has proven stable year over year in the NFL, which includes passer rating and PFF passing grade from a clean pocket. Conversely, play under pressure is extremely volatile year over year but still a valuable metric to study when evaluating single-season performances.

    Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill finished his stellar 2019 campaign as the NFL’s leader in clean-pocket passer rating at 122.8. He completed 166-of-224 attempts (74.1%) for 2,209 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four picks when kept clean this past season.


    And:

    PFF also charts and track play-action passing performance in Premium Stats 2.0. Among the 25 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 play-action dropbacks in 2019, Tannehill ranked first in play-action passer rating at 143.3. He also ranked first in completion percentage (76.7%) and yards per attempt (13.5) on play-action dropbacks.

    And oh, by the way:

    Tannehill also led all NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pressured dropbacks in 2019 in passer rating when pressured at 98.4. He completed 35-of-62 passes for 533 yards, five touchdowns and two picks across his 100 pressured dropbacks this past season.

    Studies have shown that clean pocket performance is stable year over year and that play action passing effectiveness is not impacted by rushing effectiveness. Those both predict continued success in 2020.

    All of this supported by an average supporting cast (so it should be easy to maintain) ........
     
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  14. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Hold up a second, I think you're looking at this the wrong way because of Z-scores. Let me ask you this- how often does the QB with the #1 passer rating deliver a top-5 performance the following year? That's the only question that needs to be answered here.

    You're solving for how often "x" QB does "y" after "z" number of seasons. If Miami's coaching, team, whatever did set RT back some, then your data is just as likely to be a bad indicator as it is to be accurate. You've already said what RT accomplished last season shouldn't have happened...in fact, you said all year that any week now he's going to come down to Earth. It didn't happen like you expected though because you were trying to solve the "big, career equation" instead of the more simple one.

    And here's why z-scores lie to you. How many year-one, highly mobile scrambling QB's are told to never run the football? None. For instance, how would Lamar Jackson have done if he hadn't ran at all the last two seasons? Just think of how much of a difference it would have made with a coaching staff saying to never, ever, ever run the football under any circumstances. He might have washed out of the league by now with coaching that incompetent...yet he's the league MVP. Now pose the same question for Wilson and all the other hybrid QB's that can run....take away all their natural ability and demand they be pure pocket passers. What would that do to their stats, sack rates and long-term projections?

    Likewise, how many QB's have three different offenses their first 3-5 years? None...except for historically bad teams or players like Rosen that you wouldn't be tracking anyway since their stats are terrible. Your Z-scores ignore what went on in Miami and placed 100% of the blame on the quarterback, which you know for a fact wasn't true. I think the more likely fact is that Tannehill was developed historically bad in those first few seasons and they turned a potential MVP into a slightly above/below average QB depending on the year.

    Like I said, I think the more accurate measurement would be how often a #1 rated quarterback performs at similar levels the following year versus how many of them are "one hit wonders". Forget the chaos in Miami since it's not applicable to what he is doing today...especially those early seasons where he was told to ignore what made him a solid QB to begin with.

    Gase spent three seasons trying to make RT un-learn those stupid pocket passing philosophies and I think it all culminated last season in what we should have been seeing all along...and my theory works with your math.
     
    resnor likes this.
  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Haven't followed your discussion in detail, but a null hypothesis is the assertion that there is no relationship between X and Y, whatever X and Y represent. And hypothesis testing is used to determine whether it is likely that there is a relationship between X and Y.

    So it's not about whether something is the "norm" or "league average" per se.

    For example, the null hypothesis for Tannehill's 2019 performance would be that there is no relationship between Tannehill's performance and the team he is on, Miami vs. Tennessee, or between Tannehill's performance and the year you look at, etc... And hypothesis testing shows that there is a significant difference in the stats, supporting the idea that the environment change had a real effect.

    If however you're talking about something being "average", then it's just a hypothesis, not a null hypothesis. And data can be used to determine the likelihood of different hypotheses being correct. If you want to make it into a null hypothesis, then you need to specify what the X and Y are between which you're asserting there's no relationship.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No it's not. TDK's assertion is that from here on out we're going to see Brees like numbers. It's not a one year prediction he's making. And there has never been a case of a statistically average QB for something like a 6 year period turning into a Drew Brees.

    Also, your question would be ignoring the conditional part: that the QB performed average for 6 years.
     
  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Right, the context here was akin to a z-test, where the null hypothesis is that the observed value doesn't deviate significantly from average, i.e., Tannehill's surroundings 2012-2018 weren't significantly different from the league average.
     
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  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    All of that is certainly plausible. It's interesting however that it's almost the exact opposite of what's said here:

    https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/ryan-tannehill-titans-franchise-qb-new-contract
     
  19. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another interesting article I just stumbled onto when trying to relocate the one posted above:
    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-analyz...free-agency-at-every-position-was-it-worth-it
     
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'm basing my analysis off of nearly double the games (13 vs 7).

    From the article:

    But he does nothing overly well and will always be the product of what’s around him. What is that worth? That’s a tricky question, but the answer probably isn’t “$27 million.”

    Great, they are paying him $22.5 million.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    All fine. Doesn't change my opinion. Regression is inevitable is their conclusion... whoa, way to go out on a limb there, PFF.

    They are paying him the 9th highest QB salary in 2020. Seems like a good deal for the guy who put up the #1 stats. The 9th highest passer rating in 2019 was Derek Carr at 100.8. Coincidentally, currently Carr will be the 11th highest paid QB at $21,500,000, just $1,000,000 less than Tannehill. For comparison, the highest salary is $36,042,682.

    Seems like the Titans did exactly the right thing. Lock him up for a few years at a very competitive salary. If he stays in the top 10, as I predict, they will be paying a very fair price.
     
  22. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    This is one of the things that bugs me about these click bait articles:

    Tannehill has always been a relatively accurate quarterback, but his play on the field has shown to be dependent on those around him and the play-caller/scheme.

    Just Tannehill's???? Really?????


    Tom Brady's passer rating by year from 2006 to 2013

    2006 87.9
    2007 117.2
    2008 83.9
    2009 96.2
    2010 111
    2011 105.6
    2012 98.7
    2013 87.3

    There are huge point swings in passer rating. 2006 to 2007 is a nearly 30 point rise, followed immediately by a 33 point drop. The only thing consistent in his passer rating is its inconsistency.

    Either we should believe that Brady is a hugely inconsistent QB or that his play on the field has shown to be dependent on those around him......

    *****UPDATE*****

    I have to make a MAJOR correction to this. I was just looking at the passer ratings. I completely missed the fact that 2008 was the injury season and should be ignored.

    He still shows variability, just not as much. The Jump from 2006 tp 2007 and the roster changes noted by The_Dark_Night still hold. Also a drop to 96 in 2009 then up to 111 and finally down to 87 in 2013 still show very big swings and I stand by my assessment that ALL QBs are dependent on those around them.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
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  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Let's not talk about Brady and his passer rating with/without Gronk. LOL It was no surprise to me that he got Gronk to come out of retirement and go to Tampa with him.

    Clearly Brady understands how important it is to have good players around him.
     
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  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I get the premise, and it's correct, but it's also true that the better QBs vary in their performance as a function of their surroundings at significantly higher levels than the worse ones.

    So when you surround Tom Brady with Randy Moss et al., you're going to get something better out of him than you would out of Andy Dalton if you gave Andy Dalton the same surroundings (Randy Moss et al.). Similarly, Tom Brady would perform better among garbage surroundings than Andy Dalton would.

    If this wasn't true, then there would be no individual differences in ability among NFL QBs. Josh Rosen would be just as good as Patrick Mahomes, and everything would depend on what they were surrounded by. Of course we know that isn't true, however.
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Tannehill's peak (so far) with average surroundings is 117.5.
     
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem there is that we have just one data point with the Titans, and so it's impossible at this point to determine the level at which Tannehill varies with that team.

    Just for the sake of discussion, what would it tell you about Tannehill's individual ability if the Titans appeared to be about the same team next year, but Tannehill went out and posted a season passer rating (since that's the measure you're using here) of 95, which wasn't significantly different from the 2020 league average?
     
  27. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    At work and don’t have a lot of time but to amplify something you remarked about...the difference between 2006 and 2007 for Brady...and the whole supporting cast...

    Additions to the 2007 roster for New England
    Donate Stallworth
    Wes Welker
    Randy Moss

    Anyone who is fair minded who can admit that Brady’s numbers that season going through the roof was due to the new supporting cast.

    if they can’t admit THAT, then they’re being ignorant and I can’t take anything they have to say about Tannehill seriously
     
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  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well certainly it was due to that, but likewise, if someone can't admit that Brady would perform better than an average QB if both had the same surroundings, then that's equally dumb.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm don't think the numbers support that.

    I brought up Gronk for a reason.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I'm certainly willing to hear your rundown in support of your assertion.

    Or is this where you tell me that now I have to refute what you're saying with my own proof?
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But, as you said, we have to assume that the Titans are no better than average. You have to provide evidence that they are not. So, until you do, Tannehill put up league leading efficiency numbers with an average supporting cast, right?

    If there were actual evidence that the rest of the team was performing well, I'd wonder what was wrong with Tannehill. He clearly wouldn't be playing up to his ability.

    I would look at stats, read professional analysis of the team, consider who they are playing, and try to watch as much of the film as I could. If Tannehill were not playing well, it would be obvious and I would acknowledge it.

    There has only been one period of play where I felt Tannehill was clearly an issue and that was the last three games of the 2018 season. He simply fell off. There were rumors of injury but as far as I know, they were never confirmed. I didn't attempt to create excuses for Tannehill during that stretch. He was just bad. To be honest, I thought the Dolphins had finally "David Carr'd" him.

    I expect, if the team plays well, Tannehill will be top 10 in passer rating. Maybe 100 - 105. I would expect a slight dip in YPA also. The combo of > 115 passer rating and >9.5 YPA just doesn't happen very often and, as far as I know, has never been done twice by one QB.
     
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Just for the sake of discussion, if Tannehill finishes with a passer rating of 105, will you be acknowledging his play or trying blame him for a 12 point drop?

    For comparison sake, Mahomes went from 113.8 in 2018 to 105.3 in 2019 and nobody gives a crap.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    If 105 is a passer rating significantly above the league average in 2020, then I'll concede that Tannehill has above-average ability.

    What I suspect will happen however is that he'll post a season passer rating that is 1) non-significantly different from the league average in 2020, and 2) part of the distribution of season passer ratings he posted in Miami, as opposed to being significantly different from it.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's where I tell you to reread my post. Then go look up Brady's numbers with and without Gronk.

    Then understand that when Brady has a HoF te his numbers are way better than without a HoF te.
     
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This part I would temper, because we're talking about just one season here. It's obviously far more likely that a team can put together one season of exceptional surroundings (in this case good ones) than it is a team can put together seven straight seasons of exceptional surroundings (in that case bad ones).

    So no, we don't have definitive proof that the Titans' surroundings were exceptionally good, but it's far more plausible to think they were than it is to think the Dolphins pulled off the Herculean feat of being exceptionally poor for seven straight years.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Let's assume the average in 2020 is identical to the average in 2019 (for the sake of argument).

    So, would you say that Mahomes didn't perform significantly above average this year?
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  37. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    How is this even a discussion? Is someone actually debating that better players DON'T help teams play better? This is getting into tin foil pointy-hat territory....

    Tannehill just led the league in passer rating- there really is nothing else to talk about since he outplayed the entire league's other 31 starters (and obviously Mariota as well). He will either repeat that performance next season or he won't, but it will not bring us any closer to a conclusion than we're at right now, in this very moment.

    We can't keep debating whether or not the league leader in virtually every statistical passing category is a top-10 quarterback or not....we simply can't. It's beyond ridiculous.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But they didn't. Why do you keep assuming they did?



    Definitive proof? I'm stiff waiting for any evidence.

    You cannot take the stance for everyone else that deviation from normal needs to be proven, they rely on assumption yourself.

    I have supported the Dolphins were consistently bad argument numerous ways. I'm still waiting for the Titans were exceptionally good support.
     
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  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I'm just trying to get him to use the same standards for all QBs/teams. So far he refuses to do it.
     
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  40. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But why? He hasn't seen common sense in 7,397 posts...do you really think he's suddenly going to have one of those "light bulb" moments from your next post? That's literally the definition of insanity. Anyone who's still arguing with him has been driven insane from his narrative.

    Maybe he's really Dr. Phil and this is a technique to fill up his TV programming for 2021 and beyond. Whatever his intentions may be though, he is CLEARLY WINNING because folks are still arguing with him and becoming less sane by the moment.

    PUSH THE IGNORE BUTTON and reclaim your sanity...you can thank me later!
     
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