1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    And those are factored into the odds, as they are for Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, et al., yet Tannehill's MVP odds are far worse, to the degree that surrounding factors can't possibly explain the difference.

    You're offering no explanation for that, while neglecting to even mention the obvious and parsimonious one regarding Tannehill's history.

    I mean folks, listen -- when you respond to stuff like this, it makes you look completely biased. Obviously the MVP odds are based on the entirety of Tannehill's career, and obviously the issue at hand is that he's performed well in only one season of it.

    My lord, lol....

    I mean hell, I can even admit there's a chance the guy will perform very well once again, at which point estimations of his individual ability should be adjusted accordingly. When you can't admit that his six years in Miami affect the perceptions of his ability, you look awfully biased....
     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Ha. ha, ha....... says the guy who has trotted out dozens of attempts to discredit Tannehill, including cherry picking stats.........
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Of course his time in Miami affected the perceptions of his ability. Those same perceptions predicted continued failure for Tannehill in 2019.

    Those of us that looked deeper had different expectations for 2019.

    Who was correct?
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2020
    Irishman, resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    There are two possible explanations, and we don't yet know which is correct: 1) Tannehill has above-average ability that was suppressed by his surroundings in Miami, or 2) Tannehill has average ability, and an average QB can perform very well in exceptionally good surroundings.
     
  5. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    You didn't answer the question. For 2019, person A predicted a Miami-level performance from Tannehill. Person B predicted a top 10 performance. Who was correct?

    Person B was CLEARLY correct. No amount of spin will change that.

    Only you believe there are still two possible explanations. When considering the Dolphins in 2019, Gase, Philbin, Lazor, et al post Miami, the steady stream of failed players on the OL and elsewhere, the Titans in the first 6 weeks of 2019, and the Titans/Tannehill weeks 7 through the end of the season and there is only one logical conclusion.

    You either have to believe that:

    A. Every former HC and OC went to worse situations after leaving the Dolphins, every former offensive teammate went to situations that were no better or worse, and Tannehill alone went to a "perfect storm situation".

    or

    B. Tannehill was surrounded by below average coaching and talent and they have all fared worse and Tannehill went to a team that didn't suck and led them to the playoffs, while playing at an elite level of efficiency.

    BTW, I have shown you NUMEROUS times that Tannehill did NOT play in an environment in 2019 that was better for passing the ball than most other QBs. His expected completion % was in the bottom third of the league. His CPOE was the best. The passing offense efficiency was BECAUSE of Tannehill. You just cannot escape that.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  6. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Where are all the other examples throughout league history. There have been hundreds of average QBs in the history of the league. Show me the significant percentage of those that matched Tannehill's performance. There should be dozens of them, otherwise you are suggesting a highly unlikely scenario simply to support a narrative.

    Or, are you suggesting that the surroundings in Tennessee were at a historic level? If so, where is your proof of that.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Here's my take- RT had a solid year in Miami in 2016 before getting hurt, then he had a year off, only to get hurt once again. No, he wasn't at the elite level Brees was in 2016, but that doesn't mean he hadn't started to figure things out by that point. Between the beat up offensive line in 2018 and RT being beat up himself, it just wasn't a good combo for a quarterback that struggles handing pressure but does everything else really well.

    Here's what stats can't tell you though- what percentage of Tannehill's resurgence last season was from self-improvement, from different coaching, from different players around him, etc? I don't think it's a simple answer and everything contributed to some degree. People keep searching for one "aha" statistic between the two seasons that explains everything and it's just not there.

    The reality is that we let a pretty good QB walk that didn't have what he personally needed to succeed. I don't think blame needs to be assigned since it's pointless- hundreds of things changed overall from 2018 to 2019 (location, workout routines, practice routines, qb room, other qb's, different nutrition at the facility, etc, etc, etc). The big picture is that he's in a better place today and playing better football...the "why" is nowhere near as important since it's a riddle that can't be solved.
     
    Irishman and resnor like this.
  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I will add that Tannehill didn't play with a RB as good as Tomlinson, a TE as good as Gates, or a HC as good as Schottenheimer. Brees played with at least two hall of famers.
     
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Except Mariota.
     
  10. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    We. Have. Evidence. That. His. Surroundings. Weren't. Average.

    Coaching carousel for Tannehill's entire tenure, and those coaches washed out of the league. Players that were featured in Miami (Hartline, Bess, etc) who left Miami and washed out of the league.

    So you keep trotting out the argument that Tannehill didn't have worse people around him, but that argument holds no water when you look at the actual events that transpired.

    Regardless of whether or not your stats say that it's likely to happen or not.

    Again, standing in Arizona in the fifth day straight of downpouring rain, and arguing that the statistics say it's not likely to have 5 straight days of rain in Arizona in the summer.
     
    Irishman and FinFaninBuffalo like this.
  11. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Opinion passed off as fact.

    I could just as easily argued that if Vegas placed his odds that low, people would stay away from being because people would assume Vegas had a reason for ranking him that low.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    As cbrad pointed out a bit ago here, there have been quarterbacks who performed very well for one year of an otherwise average career, whereas there has never been a quarterback who performed at an average level for as long as Tannehill did in Miami and then elevated his performance to a consistently elite level.
     
  13. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    That's not how professional bettors operate. The analysis they perform is based precisely on the discrepancy (if any) between Vegas's appraisal and their own. They aren't taking their cues from Vegas in forming their own appraisals.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    All it takes to make that degree of analysis appear woefully incomplete is a quick look at the Dolphins' starters from just one season of Tannehill's career, on this page:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2012_roster.htm

    It would take quite a bit of work to demonstrate that Tannehill's surroundings in Miami were significantly worse than the average ones in the league, over a seven-year span. This isn't the sort of thing that can acquire definitive truth from a message board narrative.
     
  15. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Show me the number that matched Tannehill’s numbers is high enough for that to be a reasonable explanation. List them. There should be many, many examples.

    Tannehill’s performance in 2019 combined with the post Miami performances of nearly every coach and former teammate has proven the point that Tannehill was held back by his surroundings.

    There is no evidence that Tennessee provided a particularly good surrounding for throwing the ball.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2020
  16. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Now that I will agree with, and that is the single best piece of evidence that portends for Tannehill's continued success. What we don't have, however, is the same measure for the QBs who've put together a single great season in otherwise average careers (Dalton, Foles), because that particular measure didn't exist when they did so. What would it tell you if Dalton in 2015 and Foles in 2013 performed similar to Tannehill along those lines? It would tell me not to bet much money on Tannehill in 2020, despite his 2019 CPOE.
     
  17. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    6. Zac Taylor 2-14. As Bengals HC. (24-8 as Sean McVay’s QB coach, but considering McVay ran the offense and Taylor was the QB’s coach not OC I won’t give him credit for McVay’s work).

    Coaches - 53-89-2 - 0.37 winning%, 0 playoff appearances, 0 playoff wins, 1 #1 overall draft pick.
     
    resnor and FinFaninBuffalo like this.
  18. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The fact that there are zero quarterbacks in history who have performed at an average level for six seasons and then elevated that to a consistently elite level thereafter is the critical piece of evidence there. This is precisely why Tannehill's league MVP odds are so poor. The people putting money on this are wise enough to study history.
     
  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Still waiting for you to address the OL turnover.
     
  20. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    So you won’t address the fact that your premise is far fetched?
     
  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    That would tell me that you can only find 2 average QBs in the history of the league with 2019 Tannehill like success. Seems like a pretty suspect hypothesis (that Tannehill is merely average and was propped up by his surroundings, especially since his surroundings produced the very low expected completion %).
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    But that's two versus zero -- zero being the number who played six seasons as an average starter and then vaulted to a consistently elite level.

    Notice whenever I ask the question about what percentage of people's belongings they would bet on Tannehill's replicating his 2019 season in 2020, there is never an answer. People know this tacitly.
     
  23. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    It is not 2 vs 0. It is 2 out of hundreds average QBs that have played in the league without having any seasons like Tannehill.

    Nobody answers because it is a stupid question. Nobody has ever had two seasons like that. I do know that if you had bet against Tannehill in 2019, you’d have lost. That is proven fact.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    There are more, some with even more unlikely single year improvements. Probably the best example is Tommy Kramer:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KramTo00.htm

    Generally a slightly below average QB except for one year (1986) where he ended up #1 in passer rating, beating out Marino of all people.

    Brian Sipe is another one, coming in #1 in 1980 in an otherwise unimpressive career:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SipeBr00.htm

    You also have Brian Griese who came in #1 in 2000 in a career that was unimpressive except for one other year (2004) where he was #6.
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GrieBr00.htm

    Anyway, it's not unheard of for one year wonders to occur with otherwise average QB's. Of course, there are examples where a QB started playing consistently better with new surroundings later in their careers (Rich Gannon and Alex Smith for example), so there's precedence for that path for Tannehill. But what TDK predicted, that Tannehill would sustain Brees like level of play from here on out, has never happened.

    Anyway, we'll see.. it'll be interesting.
     
  25. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    So it is a handful out of hundreds..... Exactly my point. The odds of an average QB having a stellar season are very very low.

    I don't expect a Brees like run (although it is certainly possible given the quality of Tannehill's play in 2019) but, IMO, the reason for so few very good QBs (like Tannehill) having 6 average seasons before breaking out is because it is exceedingly rare for a team to be so bad at assembling a supporting cast once they have the QB. The Dolphins futility at putting together a decent OL and coaching staff is remarkable.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  26. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    The sheer improbability of that should make anyone question its validity and make the evidentiary standard required to support it very high.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Not to mention, he pulls out the 2012 team... The one team that wasn't yeah.

    But then ignores the reality that Tannehill was a raw rookie, who shouldn't have started at all that season. And was his worst season as a professional.
     
  28. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Your assertion that the coaching staffs were not bad requires AT LEAST a shed of evidence that you've never produced.
     
  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Here's another:

    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/2016_roster.htm

    Regardless, it's quite an undertaking to illustrate definitively that a team's surroundings (other than the QB) have been significantly worse than the average team's in the league for a seven-year span.
     
  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    You don't seem to understand that "not bad" is the null hypothesis. That doesn't require any support. That's the default.

    The assertion of "bad" requires support.
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Already demonstrated. Multiple times. Every coach, far too many members of the OL, and far too many skill players were complete disasters after leaving the Dolphins.
     
    resnor likes this.
  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Address the OL turnover or admit you are going to continue to ignore it.
     
    resnor likes this.
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    I’d say getting fired by multiple teams and a .400 cumulative record is sufficient support.
     
    resnor likes this.
  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    Isn’t it extremely unlikely for an average QB to have an elite statistical season? That should make anyone question the validity of the argument that Tannehill is average.
     
    resnor likes this.
  35. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    We still don't know how much, if at all, that degree of turnover deviates from that of the average team in the league.

    This is my point -- all of these conclusions that he surroundings were bad, and not a one of them specifies the degree of deviation from the average team in that regard.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    How many years are you going to argue that it doesn't differ, while simultaneously using that as evidence that Tannehill was bad? I mean, for all the time you clearly spend crunching numbers, I'd think you'd have whipped those numbers out years ago to prove you're point.

    But you haven't.

    So I'm left assuming that the stats don't bear that out.
     
  37. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Wrong. You are asserting something with no proof.

    Again, I don't have to look at stats to see the results. 3 fired head fished and multiple fired OCs, and almost all completely washed out of the league.

    And skill players we featured, like Hartline, Bess, Wallace, others, all washed out after they left Miami.

    You have no proof. We have plenty of evidence.
     
  38. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

    3,696
    3,743
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    Not true.
    Rich Gannon and Jim Plunkett are guys who performed average for a long time then elevated. Alex Smith arguably is another.
     
  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    You don’t “prove” the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis is assumed to be true until it’s rejected.

    You believe you’ve “proven” the alternative hypothesis. I don’t. The evidence you’re citing doesn’t even contain the most basic ingredients necessary for that — a league norm and the degree to which the Dolphins deviated from it.

    If that’s the way we were functioning here, we wouldn’t even know Tannehill had done significantly better in 2019 than he had previously. So you’re willing to use that sort of analysis — the degree of deviation from a norm — as your evidentiary standard only when it supports your belief.

    You subscribe to science when it supports your beliefs. When the science isn’t available to support your beliefs, however, then the evidentiary standard for you magically becomes nothing but a socially constructed message board narrative.
     
    Last edited: May 5, 2020
  40. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    Ok, you're using your z-score number thingy again. Statisticians...sighs. Look at the basic numbers.

    Attempts per game
    Completions per game
    Completion average
    Average yards per completion
    Average yards per game
    Overall QBR

    Tannehill and Brees' number are nearly identical with their previous teams prior to their trades to their new teams.

    I made that "bold" prediction that I was blasted for when I said the Titans were going to make the playoffs and Tannehill was going to be named comeback player of the year. Well, that came to pass.

    Now I'm telling you and everyone else that Tannehill's name is going to be on the tip of everyone's tongue much like Brees is/has been.

    Mark my words.
     
    FinFaninBuffalo and Irishman like this.

Share This Page