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Rosen Returns

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by tirty8, Feb 19, 2020.

  1. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    What is mythical about Peyton Manning, Brady, Jordan, Kobe, Wade, etc? They can will their teams to win championships. You guys are trying to keep a guy that will be lucky to have a career like Alex Smith. Rosen is a waste of a roster spot. He is Joey Harrington 2.0.
     
  2. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    An Alex Smith level guy would be an amazing QB 3.
     
  3. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that Minshew is working on borrowed time, and will be a backup the majority of his career. Zero upside, maxed out who he is to get to this point. I don't even think that he has the physical skills of Fitzpatrick.
     
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I don't follow or watch basketball at all, and I think that its a huge difference from football, given the much smaller number of players that are needed to make a difference.

    In the NFL, I think the idea of a guy willing his team to victories is hugely overrated and overstated. Great quarterbacks are guys who mix top level physical skill with intelligence, but also who are on the right team with the right coaching staff at the right time.
     
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  5. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    There's no comparing basketball to football.
     
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  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The problem with viewing Rosen in a way analogous to Tannehill -- i.e., he'd be much better if his surroundings were better -- is that with Tannehill we were dealing with a player who was playing at the average level despite the supposed inadequacies of his surroundings.

    With Rosen on the other hand we're dealing with a player who is playing at an extremely poor level.

    Like I always say, I might be able to get a great high school quarterback to play at an average level in the NFL if I can surround him with the best 10 other offensive players in the history of the game. But since it's impossible to assemble those players, we might as well conclude that it's impossible to get a great high school quarterback to play at an average level in the NFL.

    Likewise for Rosen I'm afraid. You could theorize that he would play adequately "if only...," but if the "if only..." is impossible to achieve, then the point is moot.
     
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  7. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

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    Right? I'd say Alex Smith had a pretty solid career. You have to be a dominant Hall of Famer to be considered good to some people.

    Rosen had no shot to succeed with this team at the time he was put on the field. I thought the few times he was given a solid pocket he showed incredible poise and threw some darts.

    It's hard to look good when you're a young quarterback and you have a really bad offensive line, no running game and the defense knows you are going to pass on every play. Especially on a team where guys have only been playing together for a few weeks, sometimes days.

    You start Fitzpatrick this season because he has earned it. Rosen is going to be the backup. With hopefully Tua sitting out the year. When Fitzpatrick returns to being a fraud hopefully Rosen has done enough by then to play at a better level with a much improved team.

    Then in 2021 you have a battle with Rosen and Tua for the starting job.

    That's how I would like to see it.
     
  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate the Harrington comparison as I made that prior to Rosen's draft. They were both guys I had rated as 2nd rounders coming out who went ridiculously higher than they should have. But IMO there's a world of difference between either of those guys and Alex Smith. Smith is a guy you can win with. That won't ever be said about Harrington or Rosen.
     
  9. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Wasn't there two major coaching changes in 2018 and another new coach at the start of 2020?

    If that is the case, and I think it is, then the 2020 team had at the very least, a new coach and system that made the team different and there was the usual new group of rookies. I don't know how much they effected the teams play, but some improvement in the team due to the draft and free agency seems likely.
     
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  10. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Arizona made one coaching change (at HC) prior to the 2018 season, hiring Steve Wilks, and Rosen played his entire rookie year under him.

    And I'm assuming you meant 2019 instead of 2020 since the post you quoted was about Murray's rookie season? Murray played his entire rookie year under one coach: Kliff Kingsbury. So it's not like Rosen had more coaching changes than Murray his rookie year.

    However, like I pointed out in this post:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/rosen-returns.94948/#post-3252695

    Mayfield is an example of a QB that had more coaching changes than Rosen, not just during his rookie year (had a coaching change mid-season too) but also over 2 years. And Mayfield played well his rookie season despite being on the worst team in the NFL for the 2 seasons prior, and was clearly instrumental in leading Cleveland to 6 wins his rookie year.

    So sure.. Rosen's team was bad, but Rosen himself was one of the main reasons that offense stayed bad.
     
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  11. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    IMO the Rosen "had to learn new systems" is mostly an excuse. He's had the same issues in every one of the systems. At some point we have to accept that it's more of a Rosen issue than a system issue.
     
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  12. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I don't know man, QB's have quite a long shelf life in the NFL. Rosen can spin the football, we know that. It could be possible that his first two years were a fluke and he simply wasn't ready. I mean, how eager would we be to draft a guy if we hadn't seen Rosen play yet? Lets assume he had sat behind a vet for two years the way Rivers and Rodgers did. That actually may have been better for him. Lets also keep in mind that it takes guys some time to find their footing in the pros. Drew Brees looked like an absolute bust his first two seasons. Hell...San Diego drafted Rivers BECAUSE they thought Brees was a flop. Brees came out on fire that third year and the result was Rivers sat and watched and Brees eventually left to make history with New Orleans. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that Rosen can't improve or can't be a good quarterback. Not all these guys take the same road to success. Now do I believe that Rosen will be good? No....that's a hard pass for me, but I do think because of that slim possibility and because he was such a highly touted prospect that we have to at least do our due diligence in seeing what we have with him. Throw last season out the window, flush his rookie year, and give him a third campaign. If he doesn't drastically improve this offseason and win the starting job next September, then it'll be time to part ways. I have no issue with us bringing him back. We need talent, and we need to explore all avenues in terms of acquiring that talent.
     
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  13. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Again, aside from one game Rosen looked really good. His stat line wont reflect it but that is why individual stat lines are worthless without a lot of data.

    Aside from his last start Rosen looked well ahead of the offense as a whole and it's like people want to neglect that fact.
     
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  14. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    I whole-heartedly disagree that he looked good on film. He was missing reads or late on reads frequently. Many of those were completed, but it was not good QB play. I have never seen him look well ahead of the offense on more than the occasional individual play, but you could say that about most any NFL QB.
     
  15. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    At least you are looking at the whole picture even if we disagree on the technical side of things. I can respect that. You at least have a fully formed opinion.
     
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  16. Patster1969

    Patster1969 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Although wasn't his first OC at Arizona fired mid-year - not making too many excuses for him but that probably didn't help unless we know categorically that the offensive system was exactly the same?
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And I would argue that when you ONLY look at statistics, you don't see that Fitz/Rosen were used as tackling dummies for the first half of the season. It's very easy to forget that Rosen took over when we were viewed as the worst team in the history of the NFL, and it's even easier to forget that Rosen had three TD bombs dropped by Preston Williams and Grant....despite literally running for his life. Just those 3 catches makes him above average for those few starts and the Fins have said he consistently improved over the course of the year.

    Folks who are saying Rosen is clearly a bust just aren't looking at this objectively. Then again, many of those same people said Tannehill was a bust as well.
     
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  18. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    In both cases, I think that a lot of fans just want a different player, or a different style. And that's fine. Hey, I'm there on the other side because I don't ever want someone like Murray or Jackson as my QB. But be open about it.
     
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  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    I think most people have a completely different mindset than you in regards to this.

    I don't really care if we have a QB like Favre, Elway, Marino, Young, Jackson, Murray, Brees, etc, etc, as long as they are helping the team win games.

    I would be completely giddy if Rosen turned into some elite QB. I just don't believe he's capable of doing that. He's not able to play the game at a mental level high enough to be an even good QB much less an elite QB.
     
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  20. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I get that people see it differently. For me, my mindset goes like this:

    A) My number one desire, before we even talk about the quarterback position - before we talk about winning or losing ball games or winning titles, is to have a consistent, repeatable offense. One that can execute the same type of plays over and over, game in and out, season in and out. One that can both run and pass effectively. That doesn't mean elite at everything, and I'm more than willing to give up big plays and excitement for gaining that consistency in execution.

    B) Any QB that's going to run a consistent, repeatable offense needs to be protected well, so a good offensive line is at the top of my list. And as noted, the line has to be good enough at run blocking to provide holes, and to keep the offense in a managable down and distance, and not put the QB under pressure to continually be trying to convert on third and long.

    C) After all of that, I see Rosen as a great candidate to be a QB that fits into what I want to do. He's still very young, he has great size, he has a great arm and a beautiful release, he throws a very catchable pass and he's an extremely intelligent and seemingly agreeable young man to work with. He offers nearly everything that I want in the position, and I think that he just needs time, coaching, patience and team mates around him to help.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    lol.. Once again, no one is ONLY looking at statistics. I didn't use stats at all during the season to argue Rosen was a bust until he had a full 16 starts under his belt. We all saw the games and I kept arguing he wasn't showing any improvement in his decision making abilities.

    And as pointed out before, even IF you give him 3 extra TD's it still makes him the worst QB statistically.

    But that 2nd paragraph of yours is another level of ridiculousness: "anyone disagreeing with KeyFin is simply not looking at things objectively". LOL. You actually think QB evals can be done "objectively" with any accuracy by anyone?? Just look at all the busts taken by teams with the 1st overall pick to realize no professional can evaluate QB's well. So don't come at us with that kind of arrogance.

    Finally, the argument about Tannehill was always that he was statistically average and likely to remain so. Tannehill was NEVER in the same "bust-level" stratosphere statistically that Rosen is. These aren't comparable situations. And again.. don't act like you somehow can tell which QB is good or not. You thought Moore was a better QB than Tannehill for starters.
     
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I certainly agree that Rosen would help provide consistency to the offense: we'd be consistently bad.

    And even though you care more about style than winning, it's the other way around for NFL teams and for most fans. Most of us just want to win. So I think it's really important to periodically include that disclaimer (for those who don't know) that you're not suggesting Rosen is the best choice at QB if the goal is to help the team win. You're just saying you like his style of play.

    Either way, you don't last long in the NFL if you don't help the team win, and I predict that Rosen will have less than 10 more starts in his career and that all will be as a backup. In other words, I think coaches and GM's will continue to say he's a bust. We'll see what happens.
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    He's not arguing for style over substance. He's arguing that he wants a consistent offense, of which the QB is one part.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He's consistently argued style over substance for years. Your interpretation of his post is precisely why I made that post to clarify things. It's important to make clear that he doesn't like QB's like Mahomes precisely because of style over substance. Would you take Mahomes as our QB? I would LOVE it. He would hate it (at least based on his posting history).
     
  25. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Every team has the wish to see their offense as a consistent repeatable machine. However, you seem to want that only if it fits your play style. There are many styles/schemes, etc that can produce that type of offense.
    The problem with Rosen, IMO, is he can't run any of those offenses. Yes, he throws a pretty ball. His brain, however, needs a lot of work.
     
  26. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No. He dislikes Mahomes types because they aren't consistent and repeatable. In other words, if Mahomes goes down or leaves the team, then your prefer changes fundamentally because Mahomes overall skillet is far different from the norm. So for consistency he prefers a great system and then put the QB in.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I also agree with Unlucky that that is the best.

    But, myself, I've changed a bit. I think it's far too difficult to put all that together consistently, so if you have a shot at a Mahomes, you take it. And over time you put an offense around them that can also support a normal QB. I've always preferred pocket QBs, Marino was King. But I understand taking these Wilson/Mahomes types. I don't think you'll get a crazy long career from them like Brady's career.
     
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  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Nope. He's made it VERY clear he's against mobile QB's that use their scrambling ability as a threat:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/dolphins-plans-for-qb.94036/page-15#post-3160203
    And he's said that consistently over years. He's against QB's like Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes because of style.. doesn't matter how good they are, it's the wrong style for him.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Did you not read what I wrote? Yes, he doesn't like running QBs. He wants a dynasty. You don't get a dynasty with a bad offense that is successful because you have Mahomes for a couple years.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    He's against Russell Wilson because he's a scrambling QB. Wilson has proved what he does is sustainable. Why aren't you doing some research first before arguing against this. He's got YEARS of posts saying he's uncomfortable with a great offense if it's not the right style.
     
  31. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that the odds of finding someone like Wilson who can do it over a long period of time is a once a decade prop at best. I'll gladly take a second tier QB who can do it for 15 years instead. Give me Eli Manning. Give me Matt Ryan. Give me someone with the ability level of Rivers. Even step down from there, and give me someone like Flacco or Hasselback or Trent Green. Let me build around them. Let me have an actual offense, rather than making it up as we go.

    I'm going to bet you that five years from now, many of the ones that are currently scrambling around making plays aren't quality starters any more. A few will be, but a lot won't. They'll lose their legs, and the league will adapt.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    But you're leaving our WHY he didn't like that. You're presenting like 3/4 of his argument, but ignoring his reason. Eventually you don't have that crazy mobile QB, and finding ones like Wilson or Mahomes is not easy, and once you don't have your crazy electric QB, your offense is screwed. If you have a well built offense, if your QB goes, it's easier to adapt the offense to the next one.
     
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  33. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    QB's like Mahomes live in offensive systems designed to take advantage of what they can do. They're not "making it up" along the way.

    We'll see what happens 5 years from now, but right now the trend is diametrically the opposite of what you're hoping for: practically every hot prospect from college is a scrambling QB. Some are also good passers while others aren't or aren't yet, but the trend is going in the opposite direction because coaches see how much more potent an offense can be when you have a dual threat QB. This also means that it's actually becoming harder to find a pure pocket passer that's great because most prospects aren't like that.

    And at least as of right now, there's no sign they have shorter life spans.

    No that's not consistent with his position. He loves Peyton Manning and look what happened when Manning went down. He's also still against Wilson due to style despite clear evidence that's sustainable. Finally, he's explicitly stated on many occasions that style comes first and then you worry about winning. In other words, it's not like the thought process was "what does it take to win consistently".. it's style FIRST, then focus on winning. TONS of quotes supporting that position.
     
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    They were bad for a year, then rebounded with a new QB. I also seriously question that one season for them. You're hung up on style, but again, it's the reason that he doesn't like that style that matters, not the style.

    Post #71 basically said exactly what I've been saying.
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think the way I'm interpreting what he's said is the way almost everyone would interpret his past quotes. danmarino seems to interpret it that way too, that it's irrelevant how great (or consistently great) the offense is if it's not the style he likes. And note that Unlucky 13 hasn't disputed what I'm saying. He's giving more examples of QB's he likes but he isn't disputing my interpretation.

    Either way, since he's taking part in this conversation, let's just ask him directly:

    Unlucky 13, is it your position that you'd prefer an average production offense with a QB that plays the style you like (i.e., pocket passer, not a dual threat QB that uses scrambling ability as a weapon) over a much more productive offense with a QB that plays like Mahomes year in year out? Assume in both cases that it's sustainable and that greater production implies higher win%.

    Oh.. and secondly, is what I originally said true: you're not suggesting that Rosen is the QB most likely to increase win% for us, but he's the best in your mind among QB's that play the style you like?
     
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  36. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    My position is that I would take a good offense, run over many years, using a pocket style QB, rather than try and get a great offense using a "miracle QB".

    Now, I would take an all time elite pocket passer like Marino or Peyton without question first. There's zero internal debate.

    But I firmly believe that an elite scrambling QB is less likely to pan out, and less likely to last a long time. I also firmly believe that if you end up with a second tier scrambling QB, then your offense is far more likely to be sporadic, hit and miss, with extreme highs and lows, than if you have a second tier pocket QB. Games with 40 points, followed by a few with less than 20.

    And you're more likely to end up with a drive that results in a 70 yard TD, followed by two that are three and out and a turnover. Whereas my STRONG preference is to have most drives last a number of plays and get into enemy territory, giving you more chances at a FG or to put the other team into poor starting field position, even if it doesn't result in more TDs.

    Consistency. Balance. Dependability. Reliability.

    Hire me for a job that pays 500 dollars a week, every single week for twenty years....instead of one that might pay 1000 one week, 200 the next, 2000 later on, with weeks that it pays nothing at all, and then the job disappears and I have to look for work again in five years.
     
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  37. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Right.. but I'd still like an explicit answer to the question of which you'd prefer if you KNEW consistency was there. So if you KNEW you had a scrambling QB like Wilson where high level play is sustainable vs. let's say a Matt Ryan (above average but not elite like Wilson production-wise) which do you choose?
     
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  38. DOLFANMIKE

    DOLFANMIKE FOOTBALL COACH 32 YEARS Luxury Box

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    I like Rosen. I think he played at the time our OL was at it's worst, and had more great throws dropped by WR's than anytime in all my years watching Miami. If those balls hadn't been dropped, and the OL hadn't been so bad, I think people would have a different view on his play. Watch the film. It doesn't lie. I'm more concerned about Rosen's ability to lead than I am him making throws. Also - The kid is only 23 and has now had 4 OC's in 3 seasons. It's kind of tough to lead when you are always learning new schemes.









    https://www.azcardinals.com/video/nelson-drops-perfect-deep-ball-from-rosen

    https://www.azcardinals.com/video/josh-rosen-s-best-passes-from-his-starting-debut-vs-seahawks

    I see some amazing throws in that film. Moreover - some of his best throws that should have been huge plays were dropped
     
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2020
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  39. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    ...16 games with two historically bad teams. It was so bad they made coaching-changes mid year in Arizona, yet you're still trying to push a narrative that it was solely due to their rookie QB.

    Rosen has zero chance to succeed in Miami last season. At that point where he started, no one did...including Fitzpatrick. That's not what I was talking about though, because you're looking at raw passer rating data to claim Rosen was one of the worst ever. And that's simply not true once you glance beyond the stat sheet and start seeing things like how fast he was pressured, how many positive plays were dropped, etc. We literally gave him zero chance to succeed under those circumstances and it was very well documented by the media.

    Nobody here is saying that Rosen did well last season, but you don't judge a young QB on a couple of starts with zero talent around him. If you want to say he played poorly, then sure...I can live with that. But so did the same Fitzpatrick who out-gunned the Patriots in a must-win game in week 17. Did Fitzpatrick evolve into an ultra-elite QB those last 6-8 weeks....or did the team around him just start playing better? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out the answer.
     
  40. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Arizona in 2018 and Miami in 2019 were NOT historically bad. Not even close. Cleveland in 2016-2017 was historically bad. And I'll repeat the example of Mayfield going to a worse team in Cleveland with MORE coaching changes (at HC) than Rosen yet doing really well as a rookie. No one wants to address that.. for obvious reasons.

    And I never said the problems these teams had on offense were "solely" due to the QB. Not even close (that's not only inaccurate it's misleading). I argued that Rosen was as much at fault for those bad offensive performances as any surrounding cast.

    Finally, with the SAME surrounding cast, Fitz did a lot better. Yes, on an absolute scale Fitz wasn't good, but relative to Rosen he was great.
     

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