Isn't there some crazy stat, like the 1/2 seeds from both conferences almost NEVER all advance to the championship games? Somebody's going down...
pretty sure he was one of their primary coverage on tight ends guys. Bad team to miss him vs. primary in line Boyle, h back hurst, flex and iso Mark Andrews
I’m sure someone comes out flat and stubs their toe but man it’s hard to pick it. and this is the round where I think you usually see blow outs. Feels that way to me anyways in terms of when they occur. 2nd round
In the Tenn/Balt game: - If high scoring and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good. - If high scoring and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch. - If low scoring and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good. - If low scoring and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch. - If lopsided and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good. - If lopsided and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch.
I’m not sure to be honest, I just thin one of those teams gets a back for meaningless TD to keep it closer than it looked. Ravens are a fantastic rested team, I personally think they will roll through that defense.
I think I'll go Vikings +7 big Titans +10 small (should take the ravens but I want to root for titans lol) Texans +10 small Packers -5 medium Little worried here. Home teams usually do well this round
He had a passer rating of 113 on the road. Another myth busted. A passer rating of 124.6 in December. Another myth busted. A passer rating of 125 on 3rd down. Another myth busted.
Very excited for the game today...I have a feeling that it will be a great game win or lose for Tennessee. Really, really hoping they figured out a way to at least partially contain Jackson!
And the vocabulary word for today is .... anosognosia, condition of a deficit of self-awareness. What a precise word!
Just had an omen on the game! After a long 7 week journey from China, I present to you.... It arrived about 10 minutes ago!
like I said consistent... that’s not trashing the man, that’s just an opinion, I was ready to move on early because I don’t personally trust the skill set, you can feel how you want, if he does what I think he has to do then I will be here to say it..
OK, so as promised I finished writing the program. And as promised I won't post a graph. I'll even throw in a bonus for you: no z-scores!! So this is what I did. I had the program look through all games all QB's played in this link: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm And since I'm not using z-scores, I had to restrict the search range to 1978-2018 (the standard deviation in passer rating vastly changed to a new norm from 1978 so you'd need z-scores to compare across that boundary). I had the program record the following: 1) regular season passer rating, 2) passer rating during December, 3) playoff passer rating, and 4) number of playoff games. Then, I filtered out all cases per season where the QB did not throw at least 10 passes in the playoffs and at least 100 passes in December. Those aren't large numbers of passing attempts but for obvious reasons I can't put the threshold at 150+. From 1978-2018 there are 267 such QB seasons. And some of the results are counter-intuitive. Results 1. The average decrement in passer rating from regular season to playoffs is -9.97 passer rating points, so basically on average QB's perform 10 passer rating points worse in the playoffs than their regular season rating. 2. The average difference between regular season passer rating and December passer rating is -1.36 points (December is slightly worse). 3. The correlation between regular season PR and playoffs PR is 0.4226 while it's 0.3636 between December PR and playoffs PR. In other words, regular season PR is the better predictor of how you perform in the playoffs. December ratings are slightly worse predictors! 4. The correlation between regular season PR and number of games you played in the playoffs is 0.1313 while it's 0.1173 for December PR and # of playoff games. Once again, though the difference is small, regular season PR is the better predictor. 5. Linear regression shows that on average, for each extra passer rating point in regular season PR you tend to perform 0.8124 passer rating points better in the playoffs, while it's only 0.5041 for each extra December passer rating point. In other words, no matter how you look at it, December performance for QB's (or the passing offense) isn't as important for predicting playoff performance as looking at overall regular season passer rating. I don't yet have the program for these gamelogs to adjust everything by era (wasn't needed here since I kept it to post-1978 and was only interested in increments or decrements). But when I get around to doing that, I can also go back and figure out where Tannehill's 2018 December rating ranked all time (since 1978). That will require adjustment by era.
you and me both! we forgot to add that the ravens have the best kicker in the league too. That dude can split the uprights from 60 like its cake. Don’t let him come out with the game on the line. He’s ice don’t look up the titans kicker results this year. No bueno
Given that the correlation between passer rating differential and winning is similarly strong in the playoffs, that’s a huge finding that underscores even more the need for one of the best quarterbacks in the league if you’re going to get through the playoffs and win a Super Bowl. Obviously if passing performance in general is suppressed during the playoffs, you need an even better quarterback to help you overcome that and have a passer rating differential associated with winning.
Not sure about that logic. If both QB's ratings are reduced by the same amount, passer rating differential remains the same.
Is that the case, or do we see an interaction effect as a function of the quality of the quarterback?
Looking at the data I don't think there is, but I can't do the proper tests on that until I can adjust ratings by era so everything in on the same axis. I'll get around to that at some point and get back to you with the answer. In any case, based on the results I posted one can't infer any interaction effects because the increments and/or decrements were calculated independently for each QB.
lol.. This is a nice joke I once heard: "There are only 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don't". (10 in binary = 2 in decimal notation).
Was curious and just took a look some current-era QBs in that regard -- of course they vary in numbers of playoff games: Aaron Rodgers: career 102.4, playoffs 99.4 Russell Wilson: career 101.2, playoffs 96 Drew Brees: career 98.4, playoffs 99.6 Matt Ryan: career 94.6, playoffs 100.8 Peyton Manning: career 96.5, playoffs 87.4 Tom Brady: career 97, playoffs 89.8 Andy Dalton: career 87.5, playoffs 57.8 Cam Newton: career 86.1, playoffs 87.7 Tony Romo: career 97.1, playoffs 93 Joe Flacco: career 84.1, playoffs 88.6 Eli Manning: career 84.1, playoffs 87.4
I hope for your sake your Titans win, but what you saw with the Vikings today could very well be the way the game unfolds with the Titans, where the stud running back gets shut down, the defense can't stop the opposition from scoring, the team gets a good bit behind on the scoreboard, and a QB who's been playing well is put in a situation in which he has to carry the team and can't do it.