1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Isn't there some crazy stat, like the 1/2 seeds from both conferences almost NEVER all advance to the championship games? Somebody's going down...
     
  2. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    pretty sure he was one of their primary coverage on tight ends guys. Bad team to miss him vs. primary in line Boyle, h back hurst, flex and iso Mark Andrews
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  3. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016

    I’m sure someone comes out flat and stubs their toe but man it’s hard to pick it.

    and this is the round where I think you usually see blow outs. Feels that way to me anyways in terms of when they occur. 2nd round
     
    resnor likes this.
  4. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    In the Tenn/Balt game:
    - If high scoring and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good.
    - If high scoring and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch.
    - If low scoring and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good.
    - If low scoring and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch.
    - If lopsided and Balt wins, it will be because Thill isn't very good.
    - If lopsided and Tenn wins, it will be because the Ravens were off or Tenn's defense was clutch.
     
  5. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    You guys heard the rumor about who beli wants to replace Brady if they move on?
     
    KeyFin, resnor and PhinFan1968 like this.
  6. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    If Tannehill throws 450 yards and 5 touchdowns it is because of Derrick Henry is the running back
     
  7. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya, many of their fans are hating it that he's out, but they like the back-up.
     
    resnor likes this.
  8. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Ya...Dalton. I approve this move.
     
    Hoops and resnor like this.
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    Who did you hear?
     
  10. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015

    I’m not sure to be honest, I just thin one of those teams gets a back for meaningless TD to keep it closer than it looked.

    Ravens are a fantastic rested team, I personally think they will roll through that defense.
     
    PhinFan1968 and resnor like this.
  11. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,392
    14,745
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    I think I'll go
    Vikings +7 big
    Titans +10 small (should take the ravens but I want to root for titans lol)
    Texans +10 small
    Packers -5 medium

    Little worried here. Home teams usually do well this round
     
    Hoops and PhinFan1968 like this.
  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    He had a passer rating of 113 on the road. Another myth busted.

    A passer rating of 124.6 in December. Another myth busted.

    A passer rating of 125 on 3rd down. Another myth busted.
     
  13. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Very excited for the game today...I have a feeling that it will be a great game win or lose for Tennessee. Really, really hoping they figured out a way to at least partially contain Jackson!
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2020
    adamprez2003, PhinFan1968 and resnor like this.
  14. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I forgot what it felt like to be interested in a game this late.
     
  15. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

    573
    532
    93
    Oct 16, 2017
    High Point, NC
    And the vocabulary word for today is .... anosognosia, condition of a deficit of self-awareness. What a precise word!
     
  16. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Just had an omen on the game! After a long 7 week journey from China, I present to you....

    [​IMG]

    It arrived about 10 minutes ago!
     
  17. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

    37,392
    14,745
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    new york ciity
    That's nice. Pretty badass
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    If you think that Res about me that’s not at all accurate..
     
    resnor likes this.
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    like I said consistent... that’s not trashing the man, that’s just an opinion, I was ready to move on early because I don’t personally trust the skill set, you can feel how you want, if he does what I think he has to do then I will be here to say it..
     
  20. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    OK, so as promised I finished writing the program. And as promised I won't post a graph. I'll even throw in a bonus for you: no z-scores!!

    So this is what I did. I had the program look through all games all QB's played in this link:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_career.htm

    And since I'm not using z-scores, I had to restrict the search range to 1978-2018 (the standard deviation in passer rating vastly changed to a new norm from 1978 so you'd need z-scores to compare across that boundary).

    I had the program record the following: 1) regular season passer rating, 2) passer rating during December, 3) playoff passer rating, and 4) number of playoff games. Then, I filtered out all cases per season where the QB did not throw at least 10 passes in the playoffs and at least 100 passes in December. Those aren't large numbers of passing attempts but for obvious reasons I can't put the threshold at 150+.

    From 1978-2018 there are 267 such QB seasons. And some of the results are counter-intuitive.

    Results
    1.
    The average decrement in passer rating from regular season to playoffs is -9.97 passer rating points, so basically on average QB's perform 10 passer rating points worse in the playoffs than their regular season rating.
    2. The average difference between regular season passer rating and December passer rating is -1.36 points (December is slightly worse).
    3. The correlation between regular season PR and playoffs PR is 0.4226 while it's 0.3636 between December PR and playoffs PR. In other words, regular season PR is the better predictor of how you perform in the playoffs. December ratings are slightly worse predictors!
    4. The correlation between regular season PR and number of games you played in the playoffs is 0.1313 while it's 0.1173 for December PR and # of playoff games. Once again, though the difference is small, regular season PR is the better predictor.
    5. Linear regression shows that on average, for each extra passer rating point in regular season PR you tend to perform 0.8124 passer rating points better in the playoffs, while it's only 0.5041 for each extra December passer rating point.

    In other words, no matter how you look at it, December performance for QB's (or the passing offense) isn't as important for predicting playoff performance as looking at overall regular season passer rating.

    I don't yet have the program for these gamelogs to adjust everything by era (wasn't needed here since I kept it to post-1978 and was only interested in increments or decrements). But when I get around to doing that, I can also go back and figure out where Tannehill's 2018 December rating ranked all time (since 1978). That will require adjustment by era.
     
    The_Dark_Knight, KeyFin and The Guy like this.
  21. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    you and me both!

    we forgot to add that the ravens have the best kicker in the league too. That dude can split the uprights from 60 like its cake. Don’t let him come out with the game on the line. He’s ice

    don’t look up the titans kicker results this year. No bueno
     
  22. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Given that the correlation between passer rating differential and winning is similarly strong in the playoffs, that’s a huge finding that underscores even more the need for one of the best quarterbacks in the league if you’re going to get through the playoffs and win a Super Bowl.

    Obviously if passing performance in general is suppressed during the playoffs, you need an even better quarterback to help you overcome that and have a passer rating differential associated with winning.
     
  23. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

    1,183
    1,484
    113
    Dec 11, 2016
    The numbers are crazy.
     
  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Not sure about that logic. If both QB's ratings are reduced by the same amount, passer rating differential remains the same.
     
  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Is that the case, or do we see an interaction effect as a function of the quality of the quarterback?
     
  26. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Looking at the data I don't think there is, but I can't do the proper tests on that until I can adjust ratings by era so everything in on the same axis. I'll get around to that at some point and get back to you with the answer. In any case, based on the results I posted one can't infer any interaction effects because the increments and/or decrements were calculated independently for each QB.
     
    The Guy likes this.
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    [​IMG]
     
  28. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    lol.. This is a nice joke I once heard:

    "There are only 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don't".

    (10 in binary = 2 in decimal notation).
     
  29. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    LOL......yet another failure in logic
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  30. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    #allabouttheQB
     
  31. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    LOL... blah, blah, blah......huge logic hole..... ha ha ha ......
     
    resnor, PhinFan1968 and adamprez2003 like this.
  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    Was curious and just took a look some current-era QBs in that regard -- of course they vary in numbers of playoff games:

    Aaron Rodgers: career 102.4, playoffs 99.4
    Russell Wilson: career 101.2, playoffs 96
    Drew Brees: career 98.4, playoffs 99.6
    Matt Ryan: career 94.6, playoffs 100.8
    Peyton Manning: career 96.5, playoffs 87.4
    Tom Brady: career 97, playoffs 89.8
    Andy Dalton: career 87.5, playoffs 57.8
    Cam Newton: career 86.1, playoffs 87.7
    Tony Romo: career 97.1, playoffs 93
    Joe Flacco: career 84.1, playoffs 88.6
    Eli Manning: career 84.1, playoffs 87.4
     
  33. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

    2,474
    2,954
    113
    Dec 13, 2007
    So clearly Matt Ryan is the best playoff QB. LOL.
     
    PhinFan1968, adamprez2003 and resnor like this.
  34. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,327
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    that most definitely was aimed at like only one person Deej. And that person was not you.
     
    djphinfan likes this.
  35. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    So much for my upset pick...Vikings falling apart.
     
  36. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

    3,163
    2,325
    113
    Sep 13, 2011
    Titans are gonna do this...Watch and see. 34-31 Titans in a thriller. The Tannehill run continues.
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  37. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,648
    67,540
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Niners made a very talented Vikings roster look bad...man..
     
    PhinFan1968 likes this.
  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

    770
    641
    93
    Dec 8, 2019
    Kirk Cousins proves that he is what I thought all along, and thats just an average NFL QB
     
  39. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

    770
    641
    93
    Dec 8, 2019
    Titans messed up their jerseys. The font is so ugly
     
  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

    6,598
    3,323
    113
    Oct 1, 2018
    I hope for your sake your Titans win, but what you saw with the Vikings today could very well be the way the game unfolds with the Titans, where the stud running back gets shut down, the defense can't stop the opposition from scoring, the team gets a good bit behind on the scoreboard, and a QB who's been playing well is put in a situation in which he has to carry the team and can't do it.
     

Share This Page