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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. here's the solution:

    [​IMG]

    That log odds of winning = -3 + 0.0315*passer rating (PR) means that the equation for win probability (WP) is:

    WP = e^(-3 + 0.0315*PR)/(1+e^(-3 + 0.0315*PR))

    Solve that for WP = 0.5 and you get around a 95.5 rating. The reason you need logistic regression is because of where the passer ratings of the losing teams are. If the passer ratings of the losing team are lower, then for the same set of passer ratings for the winning team you get a shallower slope for the logistic function. So you have to take both into account. Anyway, use that equation to calculate the probability of winning X% of games in the playoffs.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
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  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Awesome -- thanks very much!
     
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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I only wanted to compare both skillets relative to this years talent level..

    Personally I feel Fitzpatrick made a point in his mind that he recognized the deficiencies of his oline and said to himself, I have to play a different way if I’m gonna survive and keep this team competitive, so he made extreme concerted efforts to establish his legs as a threat..Stepping up in the pocket before the pressure got to close almost on a every play occurance, my problem with Tannehill was that even under such dire circumstances he never made that conscious decision even though he has it in his repertoire, so that’s why I say I dont think it’s a stretch to say Tannehill wouldn’t of played as good as Fitz did this year in our offense..

    And to me therein lyes the issue if I’m looking for my franchise Qb, I want someone who is gonna beat you in multiple ways..if that is a preference so be it..

    Now maybe that was bad coaching on Tannehill being told to stay in the pocket at all costs, but for 6 years that line was bad and I never saw that conscious effort to take matters into his own hands..
    A huge trait for me when evaluating a Qb is whether I see him understand the importance of running off script when the defensive alignment turns its back to the Qb, if they are leaving the middle of the field open and just watching their assignments than I don’t care how athletic the Qb is, he can still be aware enough to cut you every time you do it.
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    100 percent agree with all that, always have, have said many many times, there has never been a Qb that came out of college doing what Tannehill did, never.. but if he isn’t willing to mentally understand this important component then it became to frustrating for me to trust his game strictly from the pocket...

    I know I could be wrong here, he’s showing with a dominate run game and solid protection he can reach hi levels of performance.. I just need to see it in the road in the playoffs because I feel eventually that protection isnt going to be there all the time on the way to a championship.. so we’ll see if the titans oline and run game can keep him out of those precarious situations or the inevitable will happen and he will have to make individual athletic plays to reset his platform and either throw or run to convert..

    I didn’t like that last week he didn’t run once until late fourth quarter. Jmo
     
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  5. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I thought the third and eighth throw was clutch and allowed them to run a good chuck of time off the clock
     
  6. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The issue in the playoffs is going to be that, given the correlation between the running game and winning in the NFL, which is relatively weak, and given the overall strength of the opposing teams the Titans will face, Derrick Henry is not going to be able to carry the team and allow Tannehill to continue on with the fewest number of pass attempts per game in the NFL. Tannehill is going to have to rise to the occasion and provide an impact in the passing game for the team to be competitive.

    Remember that during the regular season, excluding the Denver game, the correlation between Tannehill's passer rating and his number of pass attempts on a game-by-game basis was -0.87, meaning that when he threw the ball more in a game, his passer rating plummeted.

    Obviously it's not a good sign for him that last week that correlation was diminished considerably not by the fact that he threw the ball a lot and played well, but by the fact that he threw the ball very little and nonetheless played poorly. That doesn't bode well for the Titans' chances of winning should he remain in a game manager role when the competition stiffens.

    The Titans got by last week because the Patriots' passing game was weak, and so what makes teams win primarily in the NFL (the passing game) was weak for the Titans' opposition, thus allowing Henry to carry the team and Tannehill to remain in a game manager role with only 15 pass attempts. That isn't going to cut it this week. The Titans don't have a particularly strong run or pass defense, and so they're unlikely to similarly shut down Lamar Jackson.

    So it's not a matter of pass protection exclusively. It's a matter of how much of a role Tannehill will have to take in the passing game, and whether the nature of his performance will make the team competitive against the best teams in the league.

    This is what has to happen with a quarterback if you want to win a Super Bowl in today's game.
     
  7. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's been asked earlier, but instead of simply claiming he played poorly, actually describe the 15 pass attempts, and explain what you think he did poorly on each throw. That's the only way that we can have a reasonable and rational discussion. You claiming it was poor, but giving no concrete reasons keeps us mired in circular arguments.
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    All other things being equal, I agree with you, but I am NOT going to trade Tannehill's arm talent for Fitzpatrick's or anyone similar just to get the off script stuff. I'm not sure I trade the off script stuff if I am getting far inferior accuracy, pre-snap recognition, or a host of other things.

    Also, I think you are underestimating the amount of off script plays that Tannehill makes.
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    It should be said that he has made numerous plays this year by avoiding pressure, resetting and making a killer throw. The only question is if he does it often enough.
     
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  10. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    I will add that Brady and the Mannings have been pretty successful without the Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson elements to their games.
     
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  11. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You are making an implied causation here that is not proven.

    He didn't play poorly. An assertion you keep making without backing it up.

    Like maybe against KC and NO this year where he posting passer ratings of 133.9 and 133.6 ......

    Is it? Brady posted passer ratings of 77 and 71 enroute to the SB victory LAST SEASON.
     
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  12. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    He will not do that........
     
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  13. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    I don’t know what you’re getting at with the first part of your reply. Honestly and no sarcasm.

    But as for the 2nd part regarding Tannehill and his on the road play.

    Remember what teams he was getting dominated by. It was always the Bills, Jets and Patriots. They had or have EXCELLENT defenses! Particularly pass rush.

    We all can remember watching Mario Williams and company Tbag Tannehill all day long in passing situations. They would destroy our Oline and Tannehill looked like the proverbial deer in the headlights.

    Here’s the difference,

    Where I imagine you (and others) were asking yourself something along the lines of “why don’t you pull a magic act like Russell Wilson?”. I was screaming “where is his outlet?!”. “Where is the screen to the RB?”. “Where are the calls to make them PAY for these jailbreak pass rushing calls that are destroying our pathetic Oline?!”.

    I know I always saw Peyton, Flacco and Brady have somewhere to drop it off! Woodhead, Ray Rice any RB in a Bronco uniform. They all had somewhere to go with the ball to keep defenses from teeing off. Not us. It was drop back and pass on 3rd and 14....

    Where was our built in scheme to nullify this pass rush?! That fell on the coaching staff. I still believe it to this day.
     
  14. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It absolutely did, and I’m not sure how I can fit that happening in the context of my argument here, it’s a fine line..
     
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'd add the Ravens to that list McDuff. Those were his bugaboos while here...and those teams weren't always playoff caliber, but their DL was.

    And he's going up against a Ravens DL this weekend that is probably better than those. I'm seeing a lot of comments coming out from Titans RBs/TEs about how crucial it will be to pick up their blitz. They know their OL is gonna get smashed. Will they plan in outlets like you referred above? If they do, he could murder 'em in short+YAC stuff all game long. They have to do this AND stop Derrick Henry at the same time. Gonna be VERY interesting to see how Baltimore goes about this game, if they blitz on more than just 3rd, etc. Tannehill will be able to identify it and shift protect, adjust points, roll-out maybe, so it's gonna be a cat and mouse game.
     
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  16. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    while he was our Qb he ran on his own accord about 1 time a game..

    I’ll be the first to tell you his skill set was mismanaged, him not running read option at least 5 times a game, rolling out once a game was never capitalizing on what he does well..it was a joke.

    That’s why I always wanted him to take matters into his own hands more often, but he never did..to me that was the red flag that killed me.you know you have a pathetic oline and your just going to pretend it’s going to protect you while you go through your progressions???
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
  17. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Haha. As you cling to assumptions. Show me the proof of your made up nonsense that Brady plays his games with real time audio in his helmet telling him where to throw. Facts huh? Stop making stuff up in order to troll.

    HAHAHA. This is a first. Someone using Brady's negative scouting report from 20 years ago as an effort to "prove" they are cheaters. This is gold lol. But yes, keep throwing around the word "facts" because people disagree with your nonsense and aren't using the same "facts" as you. Incredible.

    PS: Just because you made something up, doesn't mean it's a fact.
     
  18. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I’m not stupid enough to think Ryan can pull a Russell Wilson, he doesn’t have that kind of agility..But he could of mitigated it much better imo, he’s got some moves and decent speed..

    We agree that he had incompetent coaching that didn’t give him that outlet, but I feel that there were times he could of done a things differently, many times, for years
     
  19. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Dealing with a pass rush is MUCH more than just having pocket awareness. It does NOT have to be from the ability to threaten with your legs.

    The Flacco lead Ravens and Patriots were 2 good examples of making you pay using their RB for quick dump offs.

    It’s much better to drop it off to a RB than have your QB running around out there trying to pull Houdini acts.
     
  20. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    It was proven, there was an NYT article on it, the NFL buried it.

    Doug Flutie, IIRC, was his back-up that let the story out.

    It's not made-up, but it is largely ignored by Brady slurpers.

    Edit: There was a video a guy that investigated it put up on YouTube, even wrote a book on their "Spy Gate" crap, that was linked on here not too long ago...very bad stuff. I'll try to dig it up.
     
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  21. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    But, if you are not practicing that during the week, what is the likelihood that it would be successful? What would the receivers do if the team is not planning for and practicing those plays during the week? How is there a chance in hell that it would be successful? I know it sounds good, but really? I think you are projecting success (by watching other teams that incorporate it as part of their game plan) that is just not likely in the scenario where the QB is being coached to stay in the pocket and the receivers and OL are expecting it.
     
  22. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You saying I’m a troll?

    Again, you prove you’re not just biased but willfully and woefully uninformed about the stuff you are arrogantly arguing about. Which pretty much checks all the boxes for Patriot sycophant.
     
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  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Here's that interview with the author/investigator:



    And I can't find the NYT article right now, but it had more detail as to how they were using an unauthorized and non-NFL monitored frequency, and the extra speaker placed under the NFL authorized speaker inside the helmet.
     
  24. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    I know you’re not stupid.

    I agree he wasn’t the best at getting out of trouble. But you did say multiple times that Tannehill has a “fatal flaw”. I don’t agree with that at all. And much of that bad stigma comes from dealing with those Jets, Bills and Pats defenses with crap “game plans”.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    There are lots of QBs who slide around in the pocket in response to pressure and stay in that general area of the field and complete passes that way. Tannehill has never demonstrated that skill. Even if he was being asked to stay in the pocket, there was nothing stopping him from doing it in that way.
     
  26. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I agree.

    It is not a fatal flaw that Tannehill isn't an all star scrambler. Its a tool that isn't in his tool kit. If it was, he'd likely be the top QB in the game. But all anyone here ever really argued was that you could win with Thill. That's been proven.
     
  27. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Completely misleading BS.
     
  28. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Its like being completely wrong is your fingerprint.
     
  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You mean like when I'd watch Tannehill try to climb the pocket because the ends were allowing pressure, only to have him get smashed by a DT coming through, or watch him try to escape to the side because of middle pressure only to get smashed by a DE coming free?
     
  30. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Its almost like that video posted a few pages ago, showing him doing just that, NUMEROUS times, doesn't exist.
     
  31. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Maybe actually watch him play. He slides ALL THE TIME!
     
  32. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    I agree with this. If Tannehill had the moves of Russell Wilson he’d be a top 3 QB.

    Tannehill makes throws almost no other QBs can make. He just doesn’t miss often. People don’t appreciate that enough.
     
  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I mean miami didn’t even run qb sneak on short yardage as in less than one with Ryan. The levels of incompetence with personnel in Miami has been...

    baffling.
     
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  34. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    False.
     
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  35. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. I was thinking the same thing.
     
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  36. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Well, here it is almost a week after the Titans defeated the Patriots in the first round of the playoffs and everything I said was going to happen is still happening. “Yea he won, but”

    Last week’s game was Tannehill’s first playoff game in his 7 year career. Did he have jitters? Probably so. First playoff game, going into the GOATs house, facing THE #1 ranked defense...helluva baptism by fire. Welcome to the playoffs. And yet he survived. The Titans as a team survived. Hard part’s over. Now let’s see how Lamar Jackson and the rest of the Ravens deals with the playoff jitters.

    Ok, like my previous predictions, here’s the next. With the first playoff game behind him, Tannehill is going to put up a QBR of 117 or higher. Not saying the Titans are going to win (although that’s what I’m rooting for), but his level of play is going to be back at the level it was during the season. And guess what’s going to happen?

    Sunday morning, if the Titans win, it’s going to be all of the “yea he won but” all over again. If the titans lose, it’s going to be all of the “see I told you so”...all over again.
     
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  37. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Anybody who says that is implicitly defining a quarterback's individual performance in terms of whether his team wins or loses. That obviously isn't the best way to do it.

    What I've been saying is actually the opposite: "yeah, they won, but [he played poorly nonetheless]." If they would've lost and he played well I would've said that as well, without invoking the team's loss as a measure of his performance.
    A passer rating of 117 or more (era-adjusted) in the playoffs has happened on 23 of the possible 198 occasions since 2010 (11.6% of the time), usually by the likes of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers during that time period.

    If he has a passer rating of 95 or higher I'll call it a success for him, even regardless of how many passes he throws, and certainly regardless of whether they win or lose.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Hoodie had SB rings before he was a HC and he turned around a losing franchise with the Browns before he took over the Patriots built by Parcells that had already been to multiple playoffs and a SB.

    So what is your point bereft of context exactly?

    People on this board either say Hoodie sucks or Brady sucks or Brady success is due to Hoodies coaching ability.
     
  39. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Please give a breakdown of his 15 pass attempts. Surely that isn't some sort of Herculean effort. You really need to stop making statements of fact without proof to back them up. I can only assume that you can't back it up, since you won't give specifics. Honestly, that is a pretty cowardly way of engaging in a discussion. You set it up so you can't be proved wrong.
     
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  40. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That would kill his argument completely, since if anybody who regularly watches football besides just stat-watching, watches those plays (also have to include the TD he threw where the receiver stepped out, he still made the throw), can tell you how difficult some of those were, particularly the 3rd and 8...and his portion of the play was absolute dime level on many. I wonder how an analyst on TV would sound if they said a QB throwing multiple dimes, wasn't playing at a level to contribute to a win? There have been several reports, both in press and telecast that have stated, "ya he made those big mistakes, but he made a lot of plays that contributed directly to the win."

    And nobody's ignoring the 2 mistakes...they were huge mistakes. The INT being the worst of the 2. He made far more big throws out of the admitted small sample size...those 2 plays should in no way fully define his play.

    Basics.
     

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