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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Between 2010 and 2018 in the NFL, the correlation between era-adjusted passer rating differential (adjusting to 2018) and point differential, on a game-by-game basis in the playoffs (over 99 games total) is 0.67, meaning that "the quarterback duel" in the playoffs is a fairly strong determinant of which team wins and by how much.

    The Ravens had the second-best passer rating surrendered in 2019, at 77.5 (behind only the Patriots at 62.8). The Ravens also blitzed on defense more often than any other team in the league (on 54.9% of plays; Tampa Bay was second in the league at 43.4%).

    Lamar Jackson had the third-highest passer rating in the league in 2019, at 113.3. He also rushed for 1,206 yards on 176 carries (6.9 yards per carry).

    So this week Tannehill stands to face a team that, like the Patriots, can shut down opposing quarterbacks. In contrast to the Patriots, however, the Ravens' own quarterback performed very well in 2019, both passing and running the ball.

    So Tannehill has his work cut out for him this week, folks. Derrick Henry alone very likely isn't going to cut it against the Ravens.

    If you want to determine whether Ryan Tannehill has what it takes to help a team win a critical game in the playoffs, tune in this weekend.
     
  2. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You sure went out on a limb to predict that Tannehill wouldn't outperform two of the best QBs in the league, on the road, in the playoffs.... without help from his defense...... you should do this for a living.
     
  3. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Everyone who follows the NFL in even the remotest way understands that the Ravens should be and will be heavily favored. They are the better football team. Are you seriously implying that it will be proven that Tannehill doesn't "have what it takes" if the Titans don't beat the Ravens (a better, healthier and more rested team) on the road while putting up better numbers than the opposing QB (who incidentally had an MVP caliber season)?

    LOL...... Can you get any more desperate?
     
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  4. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Tannehill is a failure because he isn’t as likely to carry a teams offense the same way the NFLs reigning MVP Mahomes has. The same Mahomes who lost to the Pats in the playoffs. But ok, got it.

    Tannehill will be proven a choke artist if he can’t go into Baltimore and beat the #1 seed Ravens with the future NFL MVP playing quarterback. Got it.

    And if Henry dares run for a bunch of yards or the Titans defense helps shut down Lamar Jackson, Tannehill has to prove it in the Super Bowl or he’s still a choke artist riding everyone else’ coattails.

    Maybe Shouright and DJ were right about him?
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2020
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  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't mind people who dislike Ryan Tannehill...I disliked him myself for several years. But what I can't stand is the folks who say, "No, I like Ryan Tannehill a lot...but here's why he'll fail in the NFL."

    If you have an opinion, at least be a man and stand behind that opinion. To me, right or wrong doesn't matter as much as making a valid argument and taking ownership of it. I can respect someone I disagree with but it's impossible to respect anyone who tries to play both sides of the fence while always saying, "I was right." That'a just childish and annoying.
     
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  6. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Such a weak stance to take saying that he’s good during the regular season BUT can’t win in the playoffs against Mahomes and Brady. Talk about setting him up to fail.

    Winning in the regular season gives you a chance at the playoffs. That’s all you can ask for.
     
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  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    If it takes so many passes in a season to provide a statistically significant result, I dont see how someone hardcore into statistics can use an individual game or even postseason to judge a QB by their standards.

    After all wouldnt we need x amount of pass attempts before judging?
     
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  8. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Unless they are not being objective at all and never intended to be.
     
  9. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Even worse is when they use subjective terms like "in clutch situations" or "against better pass defenses" or "play well enough to win"..... They simply redefine what those mean as they go anyway.
     
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  10. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I give TheGuy the benefit of the doubt. I dont think hes malicious necessarily against Tannehill.

    I dont think its absurd to question whether a QB can keep it up. There are QB I feel that way about honestly in the league, so I get it.

    I get more frustrated with using a single game to determine the value of a player. I dont think its unique to him though, a lot of people judge a college QB on his Bowl game for example when it's just one of many games. That isnt fair to me.
     
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  11. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    It takes that many passes for statistics to become predictive, not descriptive. Certainly you can describe a quarterback's performance in a single game with statistics, without using the same statistics to say anything about the QB's general ability or what he will do in the future.

    The issue with Tannehill in particular is that for six of his seven years in the league, he's had difficulty performing well 1) against better pass defenses, and 2) in clutch situations. And so if he falters in the playoffs, where those variables are paramount, it's consistent with six of the seven years of his history. It's not like we're looking at a guy who's in his first year in the league and has little or no historical pattern of play to compare his performance to.
     
  12. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You can certainly describe the play in one game. I've said it myself I agree he didnt have a very good game. If there is any disagreement it's just in the factors at play that caused it to be so bad at certain times.

    That said, we can analyze the game individually but it's not fair to project that forward.

    Even if he tore through the playoffs I'd still want to see him perform next year to set a precedent for his play beyond a season.

    That said, I'm not going to predict failure based on what he did this year or years past, because he lives and plays now, not in the past and players/people are constantly evolving.
     
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  13. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    And our defense to that has always been simple. Philbin and Gase. Put him on a good team with competent coaching and he will succeed.

    He not only succeeded but blew the doors off when he had the chance. Now he’s gone into Foxboro and had a better game than the opposing teams QB (Brady).
     
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  14. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again, you're ignoring the dumpster fire around him.

    Tannehill is supposed to block for himself and pass to himself? Come on dude.
     
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  15. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I haven't predicted failure for him either, even as soon as this coming weekend. What I've said is that given the ingredients of the game for both teams, Derrick Henry isn't likely to be sufficient for the Titans like he was last week, and so a "game manager" role for Tannehill very likely won't cut it. They're not going to be able to go out there and have Tannehill drop back to pass on 31.5% of their offensive plays and beat the Ravens in Baltimore.

    So Tannehill will have to produce, and we'll get more of an idea what he's made of in a playoff environment under those conditions. If he could "game manager" his way through a Super Bowl win, that might be different, but I think that role for him ends this week.
     
  16. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I seem to recall a certain #17 leading his team, late in the 4th quarter while down, to a game-winning drive over said MVP's team (8th in passing defense, 7th in PPG)...THIS season...which included the following, against a pretty good defense:

    Down by 5, 1:21 on the clock, he goes 2/3, 43 Yards, 1 TD, 18 yds rushing, and rushing for a 2 pt conversion, a 58-second drive, taking a 3 point lead with :23 left on the clock.

    Would that qualify as carrying a team in a clutch situation?

    Additionally, his rating for the game was 133.9, 14 points higher than Mahomes.
     
  17. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Oh you’re forgetting 1 critical factor! It wasn’t a high pressure situation!......lol.
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Just let it go Res...its not worth your time, or anybody else's for that matter.
     
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  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I don’t Judge Qbs by wins and losses, judge them by individual performance..if during their performance they understand how to help their team win, all the better.
     
  20. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    What do you think of Matt Ryan?
     
  21. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's a misplaced benefit.
     
  22. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Sounds like somebody likes jalen hurts lol
     
  23. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    It's sooooo hard though.
     
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  24. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I believe he’s better than Tannehill

    Who cares, unless your willing to give up one of your first round picks for Tannehill then lots of folks are blowing smoke
     
  25. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    If we had an offense that fit with Tannehill’s skillset like the Titans, I would give up a 1st round pick easy. Not the #5 overall.
     
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  26. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    It’s like people think tannehill can only survive in a play action based system. So wierd. So not correct too.
     
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  27. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    Well I’d certainly take him in the Pats, Titans, Chiefs, Green Bay or Saints offense too. I’m confident he’d succeed with any proven coach as long as it’s not like say.....the Ravens offense.
     
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  28. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    That’s it? Won’t go into any further detail? I’m just curious.
     
  29. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    the ravens offense is all about the legs threat of the qb and the heavy tight end packages. They’ve tailored that sucker completely around Lamar Jackson.

    but let him take a leg injury and lose some of that juice. His pocket read at that point is gonna have to really step up. The tight end emphasis hides some works in progress I would say in his game.

    that said he is a much more consistent passer than anyone could have ever predicted watching that college tape. But I doubt it’s consistent enough to be a plus if teams can force them into a plan b in other words. His instincts though are high level so he’s got more of that going for him than rg3 did for instance.

    ravens need to strike while the irons hot and some of those QBs pocket passer warts likely come to the surface. Time is now for them.

    they physical they downhill in the run game they got a qb that can outflank you and they put all those heavy tight end sets to good use.

    if it sounds like I’m putting the qb down I’m not im just sayin that unless he becomes a better pure passer from the pocket I doubt that style game has a 10 year shelf life of high end play.

    but maybe I’m just old school and it’s where the whole league is headed with it. I kinda struggle witb it.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2020
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  30. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont particularly like him, but if he managed to be there in the 2nd round, less of a commitment, and we passed on the other guys I'd probably take him.

    Maybe even the Texans pick depending where it lands.
     
  31. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    It could be, but I'd rather believe a liar than condemn the potentially innocent.
     
  32. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    sorry I got off on a tangent. What I should have said was I agree with you that Ryan in tbe ravens o wouldn’t be a good fit. Cause he’s not as instinctual as a runner. The rest of it he could do but that instincts side of things with Jackson takes it to another level imo
     
  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    that was a fugly bowl game tape and considering that he comes from a defense optional conference it’s pretty hard to overlook what he plays like vs as close to nfl caliber speed and physicality as the sec offers.

    I’m a flat no thanks as a qb.
     
  34. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This is all correct.

    The correlation between Jackson's number of pass attempts and his passer rating, on a game-by-game basis in 2019, was -0.52, meaning that there was a moderately strong relationship between the two variables -- as Jackson passed the ball more, his passer rating decreased.

    That wouldn't mean a lot if his number of pass attempts per game wasn't different from the league average, but it was -- he threw about 27 passes per game, which was well below the league average of about 35.

    However, now consider two additional things: 1) Jackson ran the ball nearly twelve times per game, which was nearly double that of the second-highest QB in the league in that regard (Josh Allen with 6.9 rushing attempts per game), and 2) he gained 6.9 yards per carry, which is less than a yard below his number of yards per pass attempt (7.8), and you can see that the Ravens have effectively supplemented their passing game with Jackson's running ability.

    Jackson averaged about 289 yards a game running and passing combined, which put him right up there with the likes of Drew Brees, for example, who had about 294 yards per game passing in 2019.

    Now enter the Titans' defense, which surrendered an opposing passer rating of 90.4 in 2019, which was roughly average in the league, and which surrendered 4 yards per rush in 2019, which was above-average but not exceptional, and you'll see why I believe Derrick Henry won't be enough for the Titans this weekend. I don't see the Titans stopping the Ravens' offense like they stopped New England's, and so Ryan Tannehill won't be able to remain in a game manager role if the Titans hope to keep pace on the scoreboard.
     
  35. Mcduffie81

    Mcduffie81 Wildcat Club Member

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    It’s a no for me if a QB has to rely on his legs to produce.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    And he knows it isn't fair, so what does that tell you?
     
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  37. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    Its contradictory, but I sometimes say contradictory things too on the surface so I'm not entirely sure haha.
     
  38. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    You're saying that Tannehill will need to produce like he did in the regular season (passing production and points) if Lamar Jackson produces the way he did in the regular season... well no ****.....

    Now answer this question, why did you not pose the situation in the reverse? Why did you not assert that Jackson would need to improve from his last postseason performance in order to keep pace with the Titans?

    It's because you are biased against Tannehill, plain and simple.
     
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  39. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Have you ever seen him post something contradictory or unfair but in favor of Tannehill? Just look at his last post about Jackson. He acknowledges shortcomings in Jackson passing stats but immediately dismisses them because of his running. Can you imagine that same thing happening with a discussion of Tannehill? No. He'd argue that relying on his legs was proof of Tannehill not being a good QB.

    Sorry, but you really shouldn't need to wonder. His motives are pretty clear.
     
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  40. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    NO YOU CAN'T.

    Here are two plays.

    2-4-NE 37 (3:26) T.Brady pass incomplete short left to J.Edelman.
    3-4-NE 37 (3:22) (Shotgun) T.Brady pass incomplete short right to P.Dorsett II.

    They were two CRITICAL plays in the game. Exact same impact on passer rating (i.e. one incompletion). They led directly to the Patriots loss since they had to punt and did not see the ball again until it was 1st and 10 on their own 1 yard line with 15 seconds to go in the game.

    Now, using STATISTICS, tell me why they do not DESCRIBE the QB's play in the same way.....

    The first of the two plays was a clear drop by Edelman. Brady did everything right. Edelman blew it. The second play Brady missed the throw. Stop pretending that stats can be an be all end all approach. In reality you have no intention of even using stats unless you can find stats that discredit Tannehill.
     
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