Dolphins Draft Strategy - They Will Move Up... for a QB

If they do grab Tua, that is what I hope they do. Really I hope any guy they draft rides the bench for a year with some mop up duty and learns. Let Fitz mentor for a year with no pressure on whoever to rush out and start.

 

Well, we know that they loved Tua and he's been the goal all along. So if he's there, he's a Miami Dolphin. The only real question is how worried they are regarding his injury, but I feel confident in saying that they take him no matter what. If they're super worried about the hip then maybe they wait until #18...if they feel pretty confident then we'll take him#5. Even with the way Tua's season played out though, I still think we're 100% all-in on him if he's there when we're on the clock.

We don't know as much on Burrow since he sort of came into the picture out of nowhere this season- that could change things but I have a feeling that they stick to their guns and go after Tua instead. I would personally rather have Burrow but I think Grier is already sold on Tua.

 

If they draft a guy who needs to sit a year anyway, then I probably just take Tua. If they pass on him, but can get some team to trade up for Tua, Love, Hebert, etc and attain an extra #1 in 2022 then I'd love to see that happen.

 

No, Bo's career was cut short due to AVN, i.e. the femoral head died due to lack of blood flow because his dislocation wasn't reduced fast enough.

Medical experts say that if a dislocated hip is reduced within 6 hours they have less than a 5% chance of acquiring AVN. Tua's was reduced almost immediately.

Also, and this isn't directed at you res, there is no medical facts that say his hip is now more likely to be injured. Calling Tua "injury prone" because of a freak injury is like saying Sean Taylor was injury prone because he died after being shot.

And before anyone talks about sprained ankles...just stop. I'd suspect that nearly every QB has had a sprained ankle. Is every QB injury prone?

 

I've always ignored the "injury prone" stuff on all players- nobody starts the day planning to get injured. Either you do or you don't.

My concern is the actual rehab though- and possibly losing range of motion, changing his throwing motion, making drop-backs and scrambling more awkward, etc. With his specific injury, do you have any data showing full recovery rates in athletes?

There's just a lot of factors to consider and it's honestly scary when many of the answers are unknown. I'm curious if the medical field agrees with the reporters and their "experts" that it will be months before we know anything about Tua's recovery.

 

I agree. He could have a set back, an infection, need more surgery, etc....However, I think he got great news in NY and in 3-4 months we will see if he has AVN. If he hasn't had a setback by then and he doesn't have AVN, then there is no reason to not draft him based off of his injury.

 

His hip problem was a little more than just a dislocation. He actually tore an artery or something to that effect that they did not see until a day or so later. By the time they did the tissue in the joint had started to die and the whole thing deteriorated. Real freak thing on a routine tackle. Bad luck. Greatest athlete I've ever seen.

 

I would trust this info more than mine. Thanks Dan.

 

Anytime a hip is dislocated blood flow is reduced or even eliminated. Placing the femoral head back into it's socket, correctly, will usually restore the blood flow. In Bo's case, he popped his hip back into socket and in doing so damaged blood vessels supplying blood to the femoral head. Docs never knew it was dislocated, and they didn't find a fracture until it was too late. Due to the loss of blood flow, all the cartilage died and part of his femoral head collapsed. He ended up getting hip replacement surgery in 1992.

 

I understand why people think Burrow is good.
I don't understand why people think Tua isn't.

 

hE hAs GoOd ReCeIvErS!

 

Honestly, I just never was wowed by him in college. Never felt he was driving the bus in Alabama, always felt it was the backs and receivers.

 

And the fact Saban changed his offense due to Tua to best maximize those recievers have nothing on the equation?

 

Tua it is! Hopefully he's there when we pick! I really feel like he's been the target this entire time. If some QB hungry team decides to leapfrog us, so be it, but I think he'll be there at 5 when it's our turn. I'm not willing to gamble on him being there at 18, but 5? Yeah, i'd roll the dice on that.

 

You should be constantly tweaking your offense to best support the talent you have honestly.

I'm not sure how much or little it says.

 

Listen to anyone close to Tua, coaches, players etc and hear what they say about how intelligent and switched on he is and how hard he studies the game and the opponents. It's not all about throwing accuracy. If Manning P, Marino, Elway etc just had a good throwing arm and nothing up top, they wouldn't be the legends that they are today. It's what's up top that makes you elite.

If his final medical reports are favourable - and it looks like they early ones are - we make sure we snag him and if that means trading up to 3, I'm happy with that.

 

I think it says something about the talent when they are a big reason for the change

 

Just saying I never felt he was the most important part of the offense. Not saying I'm right. Just how I felt.

 

I don't know, by that logic, we should trade whatever it takes to get Burrow. Same basic skillset and no injury concern to deal with, right?

Who is going to jump ahead of us to #3 for Tua? The Chargers? The Panthers? Neither of those teams have extra picks, so they would be committing first, second and fourth round picks (the Chargers) or first, second and third round picks (the Panthers). Seems a heavy price for a guy coming off a serious injury.

Now, the fourth pick is way more palatable for them. A third rounder for the Chargers or a third and fifth rounder for the Panthers. Even if they don't look at moving up, I'd expect the Giants to call Miami and claim they've talked to some other teams that are looking at moving up. For a mere third rounder Miami can jump to four and make sure they get Tua.....

I hope Grier is smarter than that though, and offers no more than our compensatory fourth rounder. If the Giants take that, they never got a good offer to move down. Waiting patiently for Tua at #5 is the way to go.

 

I've had the same hip injury from a heads on car accident. The beginning rehab is no weight bearing at all, but then it's a quick progression to walking and running is fine soon after. I'd expect Tua to throw for top teams during the draft process and to be running fine before training camp. I believe he'll be ready to start the season.

I've had little to no problems with my hip in my daily life. I'll tweak it once in a while at a wrong angle and I'll have to get off it for a minute. That being said, I'm not exactly pushing my limits. I work a white color job and run around with my kids. Tua will have 300 lb DTs hitting and landing on him regularly.

I'd tell the Phins to test his hip's range of motion & see the effect. For instance, I can do almost all of the physical therapy hip stretching exercises with zero problem except for 1 thing. If I lay butterfly my leg outwards with knee sideways and stretch it back, that's definitely a weak point for my hip and hurts. I can pull my leg over the front of my right side with no problem (e.g. glutious stretch). I'd get a therapist to butterfly stretch his hip outward and see if he can run immediately after. It's been 12 years since my car accident and that part has never gotten any better...

I'd still take Tua because that's more fun as a fan... most of our 1st round picks aren't contributing now anyway. If he gets hurt, itll just another one an Fitzpatrick can play again. He'll make next season so much more interesting.

 

I'm not saying it doesnt, I'm just saying I dont know how much it takes.

Last year they ran an incredibly simplistic offense. This year it was much less simplistic but unfortunately Tua got hurt.

I'm not against Tua, I'll support him if we draft him. I'd probably pull the trigger at #5 myself.

At the same time I'm not convinced hes going to be some elite QB like some here. Not saying he wont, just that I'm not sure of that myself.

 

I really don’t like the idea of using Minkah’s and/or Tunsil’s pick plus our bad season to move up. If you believe Burrow is the man and can do it, you better be right. If you’re wrong, we just set ourselves back 2-3 years as a franchise and Grier needs to go.

 

Ome thing I've been wondering is the logistics of keeping Tua on the bench as a lefty. I dont mean it's impossible, I mean I'm curious how it would work.

Everyone has a side they see to better, generally for a lefty it's the opposite of a righty and so you have to sort of account for that in your offense on some small level.

It's almost like running the starting unit one way and the second unit in another.

Throwing lefty vs righty isnt THAT big a deal, it doesnt totally invert the offense obviously, but there are some changes.

 

I don't care who it is we draft, I don't want them anywhere near the field on a regular basis until their 2nd season anyway. There is no point in it, we aren't going to the super bowl next year, so let them learn and develop and in Tua's case let him heal completely. I don't want to see any of these guys in more than mop up duty for some experience.

I know I sound like a broken record but I believe it is a critical approach to helping a qb transition from College to Pro. Dan Marino didn't even start until later in his rookie year. He got mop up work before that. This is for the long haul and we need to take the long view.

 

I too think that a trade up seems to be in the cards.

I think that the real question is, "In terms of draft grades, what is the difference between Burrow, Tua, and Herbert?"

Burrow may or may not be obtainable, but if we do plan on moving up, it is definitely worth it to call Cincy and see if they would be interested in whatever trade we offer the Lions. If they are at least semi-interested, we could up the ante and go all the way to one.

In all likelihood, I think that they will not be interested and will select Burrow.

Now, if you think Tua and Herbert have a similar grade, it might be worth it to take whichever QB slides to us. It is entirely possible both could be there. The benefit of this is that we preserve draft capital.

For the sake of argument, let's assume that people grade Tua over Herbert. If you prefer Herbert, just flip the scenario.

Would you rather have:

Tua and surrender an additional 1st and 3rd round pick.

or

Have Herbert and keep those picks.


Sometimes, I think to myself, "Would a QB that was a bust still be a bust if he was drafted by a different team that offered a better situation?"

After some pontification, I have come to the conclusion that some of these guys were gonna be a bust no matter what. That being said, I do think that some guys would have panned out in different environments. Those additional draft picks could wind up making a Plan C quarterback outperform Plan A.

 

I'd rather have Tua and surrender an additional 1st and 3rd round pick.

 

Ugh. I'd rather not have Herbert at all! Why are we still talking about this guy?

 

I was watching the Saban interviews yesterday and it occurred to me that I dont think Saban truthfully wanted Tua to come back at all.

Financial reasons aside, Tua would've caused a lot of uncertainty in Alabama that I think Saban wanted to move on.

 

I don't think any if these QB are enough of a sure thing to trade picks honestly, even Burrow who I prefer to Tua.

In the end it doesnt matter what any of us would do since we arent pulling the strings. For the sake of argument it though would depend where I had both rated and how much I trusted that evaluation.

If I thought Herbert was a bit behind Tua now but had a similar ceiling I'd take Herbert. If I thought Tua was just overall better I'd probably trade up.

Regardless of what we do I'll support our pick, even if I dislike the player or how we acquire him.

 

I can't even think of who then last successful lefty QB was in the NFL and more importantly when. The league in personnel and formations along with rule changes will likely allow for easier transition between starting handed QBs. Other than some tweaks on protection schemes, what else needs to happen?

As far as sitting a year? I have more concern with his injury history, our lack of talent, and a general sense that it is helpful for some players. Even though Tua played in the SEC he still doesn't have two years of starting experience.

 

I am concerned that Tua will show just enough in drills that we will speculate on his health and the return of the ability seen on film. Only to find out the player he might have been is not who he is going to be. But then again I see the glass as half empty before finishing it.

 

Meh, you can say that about anyone though to be fair. Best case scenario, we have an elite, franchise level QB for a decade or more.

 

I bet ya it costs more than that.

 

Don't care.

I see Tua as Steve Young mixed with Drew Brees. Give them our entire first round for all I care.

Fortune favors the bold.

 

I’m with ya as long as the medical outlook is thru a 2nd contract. As in his rookie deal and the 2nd contract extension at tail end. 10 years yep

I watched that kids sophomore tape last year at season end and came away with I will gladly go 0 and 16 in 2019 with the dolphins if it ensures me that qb.

 

This is going to come across badly with you all but if this is their mentality that without question we have to have one of these picks so bad that we are now going to trade away all our draft capital we gained when all we had to do once we were out of any contention was to evaluate talent and not win games which hurt our chances at said pick than I hope this blows up in their face.

You don’t build teams for 5-11 marks nothing is gained nothing. ReHard less of what people say there is no tangible victory from 3-13 team to a 5-11 team they both suck.

If the goal was to get a top rated qb and we put ourselves out of contention to win 5 games I have a real problem with who’s running things.

As for TUA I’m going on record as not wanting him unless he falls to us. We have plenty of holes and depth and these draft picks are to valuable for us this year to waste on an often injured undersized quarterback IMHO.

Going another year with Fitz would be a critical mistake for this teams future.

 

I'm really hoping that you guys, Hoops and FinD, are right about Tua. I never got that feeling, BUT, I don't consider myself to be some sort of awesome evaluator.

 

Me neither. Most of us aren't really - but we can watch some college ball, pre-draft process (senior bowl, combine, etc), pull up highlights/lowlights, go through some statlines, listen to the media around college teams instead of just national, go through mocks, etc.

I love the draft and the process and offseason, team building and maneuvering just appeals to me. So while I am not going to pretend I am a tape junkie who can intricately break down a QB throwing motion, WR route tree or defender's gap assignments, I hear all the buzz and try to match it with the info I have seen on and off the field.

It's just about having fun and having good debate imo. As for Tua, the talent is there, the leadership and personality seem good. Yeah, he had a good team around him, but so did Montana, so did Manning, so does Lamar Jackson and Pat Mahomes.

 

Given the poor records of professional talent evaluators (you know the ones that actually work in the NFL) I don't think anyone has proven to be an "awesome evaluator" of QB talent. Drafting QB's is a crapshoot, even with high 1st rounders.

So statistically speaking we should expect to see whoever we pick fail to be a consistently above average QB or better.

In any case, I want Tua because I prefer high floor more than high ceiling for high 1st rounders, and while I have no idea whether Tua will end up "great" it's hard for me to see him being just average or worse (despite historical probabilities). And that's good enough (statistically) to build a team around: consistently above average even if not great. Obviously injury concerns exist, but I'm not sacrificing talent for injury concerns at QB. I mean.. if he fails due to injury or otherwise, just try again!