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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    I'd have to look it up, but sometime in 2012-13, I recall Sherman saying something to the effect that he'd argued with Philbin, trying to convince him of the importance of a balanced offense and ground game, and upgrading the OL.

    Instead, Sherman was fired and Philbin experimented with his disproportionally pass heavy philosphies, which is part of why Lazor was brought in.

    Dan Campbell got "it" and results were evident in his brief tenure, but he wasn't a young up n comer like Gase.

    Gase gets a lot of hate, but he only had a completely healthy Tannehill for like his first 9 games, then the OL he'd inherited from Philbin allowed Tannhill to get wrecked.

    I still remember Philbin defending Dallas Thomas' "stance". Phlbin was the worst.
     
  2. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Bill Barnwell's recent article:
    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl
     
  3. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But he had high moral character, which was what Philbin often prized over actual talent in players.
     
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  4. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    With the way Gase tossed both of the dreadful dreadheads off the team mid-season, i was under the impression he wanted them gone to start with, but was asked by the FO to try and salvage them.

    I was ecstatic when he cut them and Douglas all three after the Titans' game. AFAIK, the only team to look at Thomas was the Eagles and the cut him quickly. Douglas is a backup with the Titans' now. Go figure.
     
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  5. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    @TeresaMWalker
    How good was #Titans’ Ryan Tannehill in December? 124.6 passer rating with 1,333 yards passing and 12 TD passes - all franchise bests in December.
     
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Lies...he can't play in December.
     
  7. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    I’d be curious to see how that ranks all time
     
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  8. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    3 games under 500 for his career in December, but most TDs and yards and a 63% career completion%. Also the most sacks for his career are in Dec.

    Makes you wonder what if he hadn't been drafted by a team as dysfunctional as Miami, nor in the AFCE with the damned Patriots...
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
  9. cuchulainn

    cuchulainn Táin Bó Cúailnge Club Member

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    You'd have to adjust for era and z-scores. :shifty:
     
  10. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You’re not Zorro lol
     
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  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah.. I have the data to do the calculations but I'm estimating it would take me a few hours to write the program (never had to parse by both month and year before and then calculate z-scores) so I think I'll pass on this one, at least for now lol. However, it's a lot easier to do for just 2019, and it turns out that Tannehill came in 2nd to Brees's 137 rating for December 2019.

    So no era adjustments or z-scores this time! (but only because of the work required!)
     
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  12. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    OK so this is some Twilight Zone crap coming up this weekend.....

    - Winter Storm "Henry" is due to hit Foxborough right before the game (Jan 4th), bringing slush/snow.
    - Derrick "Henry" is the Titans running back, in his 4th year.
    - Derrick Henry's BIRTHDAY is this Saturday (Jan 4th)!!!!

    What the.....

    cbrad...what are the odds of that?

    Any bets he'll get 4 TDs?
     
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  13. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    that same scheme thing is a big deal. Big advantage.

    Especially if it’s not a neutered qb one.
     
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  14. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Wrong question.
    “What are the chances of [specific combination of events at a specific time]? The answer usually is one in a very big number.
    The better question is “what are the chances of [a similar combination of events happening at some point]? The answer usually it will almost certainly happen at some time somewhere.

    Every week people win the lottery, yet the odds of someone selecting the right combination of numbers is one in tens (or hundreds) of millions.
     
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  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    So Henry needs to buy lottery tickets on his birthday, got it! :)
     
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  16. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Soooo they won't stay this good, cause they are just too damn good???

    My guess is if you look through Brees, Brady, and Rodgers career you will find more then a few things that "shouldn't" have been sustainable, but have been.

    I agree that they may not keep winning exactly how they are currently winning, but with the way Tannehill is playing, its crazy to believe that he is winning purely off of luck and gaming around his weaknesses. I suspect that he will continue to battle for top 10 rankings for the rest of his career as a starter. I also suspect that he will find himself in the top 5 a few more times as a starter.

    IF he had a high QB rating but a below average ypa you could argue he is a game manager IF he had a high TD to int rate but didn't throw many TDs you could argue that the coach was shielding him from making mistakes. IF he was throwing 50/50 balls and just had an insane success rate with them you could argue that luck can't be sustained.


    Tannehill isn't doing any of those things. He is league best in almost every stat except number of attempts. If you watch the game you can see why he doesn't lead in that stat, Titans are a live or die run 1st team. When the run is starting to fail they then turn to Tannehill to bail them out. This is probably the hardest situation for a QB to come out as a NFL stats leader, and yet, here we are.

    Attempting to make an argument that there is a magic number of passes that if he passes turns him from a prince to a pumpkin just doesn't make sense. IF it were true you should be able to clearly show a drop off at the end of every game once he passed that magic number of passes. My guess without going into the game by game plays is that you will see that he was struggling in those games from the beginning of the game to the end, but in Miami especially, the team didn't have any way to really bail out a struggling QB, so instead, we would double down on his passing to try to catch up.

    Maybe I'm being too generous giving Tannehill a clean slate as a Titan, and not holding the past against him. If you give him that clean slate and you are going strictly off of his career as a Titan then I don't think you have enough data to come to the conclusion you have. he has 3 games above 30 attempts as a Titan and his QB rating is 92.2, 82.3, 109.8. in 2 of those games we have 2 interceptions that were perfect throws that became interceptions. Against Carolina he hit his WR in BOTH hands and the ball makes a weird bounce and falls into a defenders hands. The other is the more recent one where the WR turns gets hit the ball bounces out and into a defenders hands. If I remember correctly both of those were redzone ending drives with at least 1 going to be a touchdown if the catch stands. Normally I believe that interceptions balance out, but when you are looking at a sample size of 3 games its small enough you need to take these into account.

    So serious question, are you watching the Games? And I fully understand if you aren't cause this is a Dolphins fan site, I'm just curious how we are seeing things so differently. Nothing about his game looks like a fluke. He is crisp with his throws, he is throwing into tight windows, he is reading the defenses, he is making incredibly smart decisions with the ball.

    I think you have a lot of great insight to the game, but, I'm wondering if you aren't getting a little bit blinded by stats on this one.
     
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  17. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    This article does a good job of describing the potential issues in my opinion:
    https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/12/ryan-tannehill-titans-franchise-qb-new-contract
     
  18. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Ranked 5th best QB of 2019 by Kurt Warner.

    upload_2020-1-3_9-58-1.jpeg
     
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  19. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    LOL. Don’t bother.....
     
  20. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Belichek is a master of taking away your best player and making you beat them with "plan B". They do have the league's top defense so if they stack the box and somewhat contain Henry, it's going to be Tannehill's game to win or lose. The difference between RT in Miami/Tennessee is that you can't all-out blitz him (because of Henry) and Belichek already knows what happens when you rush three and challenge him to beat you vertically. So I think it's going to be pretty interesting how they try to slow that offense down.

    The match-up I'm more interested in is Tennessee's defense vs Brady- I don't see him having a big game. And if he doesn't, then I don't think this one is even close...Tennessee will win convincingly.

    What has me excited is that we always say you have to have x, y, and z to compete for a Super Bowl...but that's not true. To get to the big show, you need to get into the playoffs and win 3 games- it makes no difference how. I don't think Tennessee can beat Baltimore (I don't think anyone can beat Baltimore) but I wouldn't be shocked to see Tennessee take out anyone else in the conference.
     
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  21. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The point highlighted above I'll address myself since the article I posted above doesn't do it. Excluding the Denver game, the correlation between Tannehill's number of pass attempts and his passer rating, on a game-by-game basis in 2019, is -0.87, meaning that as he has thrown more passes, his passer rating has plummeted.

    That wouldn't be a potential issue if 1) a similar correlation was seen in the league as a whole, and 2) Tannehill didn't have significantly fewer pass attempts per game than the average quarterback in the league. But neither of those things is true.

    First, the correlation between pass attempts and passer rating throughout the league, on a game-by-game basis in 2019, appeared to be about -0.03, meaning that there is no relationship between those variables in the league as a whole. Second, Tannehill has attempted roughly 27 passes per game, which is lowest in the league. The league average in 2019 was roughly 35.

    In fact, although there is likely a very high degree of error involved given the small sample size (which is another issue in itself), Tannehill's predicted passer rating in 2019, given just a league average number of pass attempts per game (let alone more than average), would be 98.4, about 19 points lower than his actual mark of 117.5.

    The league average passer rating this year was 90.4, and so an individual passer rating of 98.4 -- eight points above the league average -- likely wouldn't have been significantly different from how much better he was than the league average in either 2014, when his mark of 92.8 was nearly four points above the league average of 88.9, or 2016, when his mark of 93.5 was roughly four points higher than the league average of 89.3.

    So there is some merit to the idea that Tannehill is benefiting from simply being asked to throw the ball a lot less than the average QB in the NFL. And again, the other QBs in the league don't enjoy that same benefit in terms of passer rating from throwing the ball less. The question is, if you're going to pay Tannehill a large sum of money after this season, can you count on being able to ask him to throw the ball just as infrequently, or is that an unrealistic expectation for your team?

    Anyway, there are lots of people here with strong feelings and strong opinions. My personal perspective on the issue is that Tannehill is experiencing a "perfect storm" of sorts, in a positive way for him, which is attested to by the info above and the article I posted above. Only time will tell whether his performance is sustainable and whether I'm correct or mistaken.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    The Patriots were 5-4 to end the season. I think the defense is not as good as they appear.
     
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  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    That New England defense isn't the same monster it was in the first half of the season. Part of that was their cakewalk schedule their first 8 games (PIT, MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE...wow), and another part is the league catching up to what they're doing.

    Patriots Defense:

    1st 8 games: 7+ PPG allowed (1st and insane)
    2nd 8 games: 20+ PPG allowed (12th if full season)

    1st 8 games T/O diff: +17
    2nd 8 games T/O diff: +4

    Nobody should fear that defense, outside of some singular great play by Gilmore (who the Dolphins and Bills both showed how to beat in the past few weeks).
     
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  24. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    So were the Dolphins.
     
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  25. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Exactly.
     
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  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    As I said, it's Belichek in the playoffs and they're going to game-plan to slow Henry down. Does it work? To some degree yes, but I don't think they slow down Tannehill which means you get the "beast-mode" Henry in the 2nd half with the lead. I'm not trying to defend NE's defense at all here and I don't fear it....I fear Belichek and Ernie Adams.
     
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  27. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, but the Dolphins closed the season 5-4 on the back of that defense and awesome secondary play. It's honestly pretty amazing how much they stepped up in the final weeks and found their stride.
     
  28. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Just to be clear about the highlighted portion above, I haven't come to any definitive conclusion. My tentative conclusion is that he's experiencing a perfect storm of positivity if you will, but nothing can be determined definitively without more data.

    There are several people here who have apparently already made a definitive conclusion that Tannehill's recent performance confirms what they've always believed about his ability, but that's premature in my opinion. I don't think we can conclude anything definitively either way at this point.
     
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  29. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    Well to be fair I don't know that you ever get definitive when it comes to sports. Even with all of the historical numbers you can have 2 very reasonable people come up with very different top 5 QB of all time lists.

    My point was mainly about pulling it as a statistical indicator. There isn't really an issue with people making a call what they think Tannehill has/hasn't/will become. When dealing with sports you have to make a leap of faith at some point, unless your plan is to wait till he retires so you have all the data points to be as accurate as humanly possible, or you wait long enough to have a built in escape path of "age caught up to him". As an example if Russel Wilson started to put up awful seasons year after year, many people would (though I strongly disagree with it) claim his whole career was smoke and mirrors in the beginning.
     
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  30. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I think the smart thing to do when there are six years of similar data about a player, in conjunction with one year of radically different data, is to take a deeper look like the article did in post #2817, and determine whether the performance unique to that one year is comprised of typically stable or unstable factors. That's about as well as you're going to do in predicting what he's going to do in the future in my opinion.

    If the Titans have an analytics department that provides information to its GM regarding contract/salary issues, it would be wise to be at work on this issue as we speak and do the kinds of analyses that have been done/shown in this thread. The GM could always overrule that information and "go with his gut" or use "the eye test," as some folks posting in this thread appear to be doing, but the analytics department would have done its job responsibly nonetheless.
     
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  31. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    The problem is, there are very few things as damning as missing, when the eye test was against your final decision.

    Tenn. would be crazy to let Tannehill go. They CAN give a front loaded contract that gives them outs in the short term future, but not signing Tannehill and then having Tannehill fall into the top 10 next year would get someone fired.

    Do you think your statistics rise to the levels needed if you were in a decision making position to move on from Tannehill?
     
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  32. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I would franchise tag him and see what happens next year.

    And that says a lot about what he's doing currently, because that would give him about $25M in guaranteed money, which would count about 13% against my salary cap (using 2019's figures).

    The only players in the league with bigger salary cap hits than that in 2019 were Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Khalil Mack, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Aaron Donald.
     
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  33. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And if his camp lets him get franchise tagged, they've failed. The tag value should be around $26/27M, and there's no reason they shouldn't sign him to that salary for 3-4 years. He's earned a 3-4 year contract at minimum, not a position market resetting contract, but a decent/good salaried contract.

    His level of play is slightly, but not significantly higher than his 2016 work, pre-injury...his surrounding cast, including coaches and players both, is noticeably better. It's really in line with his improvement trend he's shown throughout his career...slow and steady.

    The tag would be a slap in the face to a QB that just topped the league in important statistics and helped you get into the playoffs, after starting off at 2-4 and playing very uninspired football.
     
  34. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    The Tannehill debates are officially over. Tannehill is a franchise QB. Sadly this means we have to take FIN D's posts seriously in the future
     
  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    No wonder people are fighting so hard to still portray Tannehill as a backup QB.
     
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  36. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    ROFL
     
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  37. adamprez2003

    adamprez2003 Senior Member

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    You know, it all makes sense now
     
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  38. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    When do you offer that contract though? Because I think in a month from now if RT is still in the playoffs, those numbers would go soaring up in free agency. Personally, I'd re-sign him today to a 3-4 year deal and have that out of the way.

    PS- I don't know how Tennessee beats Baltimore, but they're going to the Super Bowl this year just in case that isn't obvious to everyone. =)
     
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  39. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I thought they should have done the deal before the season ended, so the playoffs wouldn't matter, good or bad. If they make a run.....
     
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  40. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Tannehill was judged to be a franchise QB when a franchise (the Dolphins) gave him a four-year $77M contract in 2015 and continued to pay him the salary associated with that contract through the period of time when his cap hit was over $20M and over 12% of the team's salary cap (2017). He had the seventh-highest cap hit in the league that year, and had the same cap hit as Aaron Rodgers.

    The remaining question is whether he's one of the best QBs in the league, or is experiencing an aberration at the present time.
     

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