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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Hmmm

    [​IMG]

    Kinda hard to tell....
     
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  2. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Basically. At the time, a lot of people were saying that he was going to do loads better than Culpepper, and I (and some others) were like "...Nah, fam"
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No I don't. Can you show me the post?

    What I do remember is you saying is that Tannehill would make the playoffs and be named the comeback player of the year well AFTER he had already played a bunch of games in Tennessee. Unless you can show me otherwise. And never do I recall you predicting he'd top the list (or come close to it) of passer rating or other passing stats, etc.. early on.

    But regarding your predictions, I will give you kudos if both of those predictions turn out correct because you said that early enough that at least one of them (comeback player of the year) did not at all seem likely (the playoffs prediction was close to a coin flip).

    btw.. I think you also predicted we'd regret letting Tannehill go? That part I don't think will come true for a lot of us who think Tannehill was unlikely to thrive here in Miami. Either way I'm just going off of memory so if my memory's wrong just show me the post (with a link).
     
  4. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I don't believe the team (office, staff, etc.) will regret shipping him off...they wanted to go a completely different direction so it was a done deal. Which was why I didn't get all wrapped around an axle when they traded him...it was better for him as a player. He wouldn't be stuck under that massive cloud of crap that hovered around this team for 7 years.
     
  5. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    You’re remembering the correct post. And I was ridiculed for such a prediction.

    League leading passer rating, 1st in yardage on 1st down, 1st in average yards per attempt, 1st in completion percentage...of folks aren’t regretting losing a quarterback putting up that kind of production, then I have no ideas what “you” would want for a quarterback.
     
  6. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    I'm as big a Tannehill fan as you'll find, and I don't regret them trading him to Tennessee. This place wasn't good for him for 7 years, and there was no sign of that improving. He wouldn't have had that kinda year here...nowhere close. Makes me sick this organization couldn't make it work, but it is what it is.

    Edit: He ended up 3rd in completion % by the way...still.
     
  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    But your entire argument is counter-intuitive if all that matters is win %....we won 7 last season and 5 this season.

    Of course, you'll say there's outliers for Flores (which I agree with 100%)...but then you say it doesn't matter if Tannehill was hurt under Gase, or that a hurricane forced us to travel more than any other team in the history of the league the season before (with Cutler at QB, nonetheless). And in the same breath, you're saying Gase did nothing for Tannehill when we're actually talking about SIX different QB's over a 4 year span.

    You can't have it both ways- either circumstances outside of win percentage matter (RT/Gase had bad luck with injury/hurricanes) or we strictly go by win percentage and say Flores is the worst coach we've had in decades. Which argument are you trying to make?
     
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  8. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    You think Tannehill would have had similar production in Miami? I think it's ONLY if you Tannehill would have had such production here in Miami that one should "regret" losing such a QB. However, if you don't think Tannehill would have had similar production, then I see no reasons for regret (except that we hired the wrong GM and/or coach).
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Win% is all that matters, but you don't evaluate coaches after just a single year. I've shown previously that the best time period (statistically) for evaluation is between 3-4 years. I did that both using win% for all HC's in the NFL as well as looking at just HoF coaches.

    What's important is that the coach you hire has a winning season at latest by year 3 and that it looks like it's sustainable because most HoF coaches begin their first winning streak between years 2-4. Obviously these are averages and there are exceptions, but the point is Gase falls through the cracks from a pure statistical point of view. Will Flores? Don't know yet, but if by year 3 we don't have a team that (with no excuses btw) looks like a consistently winning team, then I think it's best to start the HC search over again.

    Which is why it's so important to pick the right QB in the draft. Not only for Flores, but also in case Flores fails at least you have your QB.
     
  10. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that's a given. As I shared last year, Gase was quitting if he wasn't fired because he didn't agree with the approach we took this year. He felt strongly they were a few pieces away from a contender and he had full faith in Tannehill. RT did have a few horrible games to close out last season and we judged him harshly because it was after three years of injury & seven total seasons. Those strip sacks in particular drove everyone nuts and it the final straw for me...but it was three fumbles in two games that actually made up our minds. We were judging 7 years off of three really bad plays....

    If Gase had won his argument, a different GM was hired and the team stayed largely intact, it would be hard to argue that the Tannehill we saw this season wouldn't have won 8+ games in Miami. Nine wins gave Tennessee the final wildcard slot and I'd argue that right now, today, we'd be a playoff team with Gase and Tannehill (plus Tunsil, Drake, Minkah and company). That would be Gase's 2nd playoff appearance in 4 years and 2/2 with his starting QB healthy for the majority of the season. And I honestly think that completely changes all the narratives we've had on Gase, RT, Grier, Ross, etc.

    Again, give us all our players back Grier traded- does that equal 4 extra wins or not? If the answer is yes, then we threw away a playoff team for nothing. Could have it been "perennial" if we continued to build on that young roster?

    We lost to the Skins 17-16
    We lost to the Steelers 27-14
    We lost to the Bills 31-21
    We lost to the Jets 22-21

    Six extra drives by Tannehill, the best QB in the league, could have earned us those 4 TD's/2 FG's and a playoff berth. Minkah's 5 INT's could have had the same effect. Just saying....not a whole lot would have had to change for us to be in the postseason right now and not praying for a miracle draft.

    Something to think about.
     
  11. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    We'll never know...but I can't see him finishing #1 in multiple crucial stats on the Dolphins, with all those traded-away players or not. The place was just too dysfunctional for that to happen this year. You can't say "if Gase won his argument" because he didn't, and wasn't going to. Ross had already made his mind up. This organization's dysfunction blew a franchise QB. And god forbid he plays like he has been and the Titans beat New England this weekend...

    Edit: How many years does a team need to completely suck at the offensive line before it's taken seriously? Dysfunction #2340987.
     
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  12. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    And that's the most painful part of all...we DEFINITELY HAD our QB. Yet we fired the coach, the GM and the QB to chase the vision of the next guy up. While what you're saying is correct in theory, none of it matters if you don't have someone in the building that can actually evaluate talent AND make the most out of it. Yet here we are with a 4th round pick in place of where Tannehill used to stand.

    Again, I'm not trying to condemn Grier, Flores or even Fitzpatrick here...I really like the last two as competitors and people. The part I'm not okay with is that we did all of this because Grier bet everything on Tannehill not being good enough, which ultimately led to Gase walking and completely stripping down the roster. They wouldn't have done that if RT stayed since you try to protect your franchise QB as much as possible.

    In a few months, we'll draft Burrow or Tua or Hebert, Love, Hurts or someone else entirely, and they're going to compete against Fitzpartick for the starting role. At some point they'll take over in year two for Flores, and maybe they flash just like Marino did only a few games in. But unless they have that massive Marino-like season year two (Flores/Grier year 3) then this fan-base is going to start having some conversations....is he the guy? Is it the right coach? Are we on the right path as a team? Then we blow everything up all over again.

    My big point here is that you don't even know for sure UNLESS you have that season like RT or Marino where doubters are completely silenced. And how often does that happen in the NFL these days? Mahommes, Wilson and Rodgers are the only three I can think of where you'd say, there's almost no doubt after their first 2-3 seasons. Guys like Brees & Tannehill took awhile to get there. Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, Lock, Jimmy G, Watson, Jackson, etc...there's some folks who have impressed in that group, but it's hard to say that they're the next Big Ben, Rodgers or Brady with great 15 year careers ahead of them.

    We just don't know without that one guy in the room that sees it...and our guy currently was the one who refused to even talk to Tannehill this off-season when he was begging to remain a Dolphin. So unless our next QB falls into that ultra-rare category where he comes out of the gate as a superstar, I don't see how we find that franchise QB even if he's actually on our roster at some point.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
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  13. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Listen... Just because I never stated that Tannehill would, for example, be #1 in the league for passer rating, does not mean that you're correct to act like I wasn't right. Again, I've argued for years that if Tannehill had DECENT players around him, and a DECENT head coach who utilized players appropriately, that he could play at a top 10 level. THAT is exactly what is happening in Tennessee.

    It's incredibly frustrating that people, instead of acknowledging that, are attempting to act like no one saw this coming. Of course we did. We wouldn't have argued for years if we thought Tannehill was not a potential top 10 QB. I mean, what if I said Tannehill would throw 30 TDs and he threw 31? People would be on here saying I was wrong. It's disingenuous and ridiculous.

    Just admit your analysis of Tannehill was completely wrong, and move on.
     
  14. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Another QB to consider regarding the sustainability of Tannehill's performance.

    Nick Foles in 2013 started 10 games (same number as Tannehill this year), with a passer rating of 119.2 and a YPA of 9.1, leading the league in both figures that year.

    Since then he's started 32 games, with a passer rating of 81.6 and a YPA of 6.55.
     
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  15. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Resnor, what I said in post #2570 is completely correct, and I'm not deviating from that unless someone shows me proof to the contrary:
    https://www.thephins.com/threads/titans-to-start-ryan-tannehill.94693/page-65#post-3237130

    Again.. there's no question that Tannehill has proven everyone (including you) correct who said he could play at an elite level for a sustained period of time within a season with the right surrounding cast. He never did that before. But it's also true that NO ONE predicted he would actually play at an elite level with the Titans until well after he was doing so.

    Seriously.. not sure why you're getting so worked up about this. I could tell you the same thing and move on.
     
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  16. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, Tannehill is now an outlier, but if you remember those graphs I showed before about how most QB's perform after X number of years starting you see them (on average) not getting much better from about year 4. So I think the proper approach with QB's should be the same as with coaches. See if the guy proves he's the solution by year 3-4 and if not (whatever the reason) try again with a new one.

    In any case, expectations for any QB we pick (even if at the #5 position) should be that he will NOT be our solution at QB. Odds show that to be the case. And I'm fine with that. What I'm not fine with is not prioritizing the QB position IF he doesn't prove he's the solution by year 4 or so. Maybe he's another Tannehill and he'll do better elsewhere. So be it, but it's smart IMO to keep trying every 3-4 years until you finally find one that proves he's the solution.. both at HC and at QB.
     
  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Because, when you say "no one saw this coming," ONLY YOU is meaning the specific stats he put up this year. Those stats, however, mean he is playing at an elite level...which is exactly what we argued he would do.
     
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  18. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Remove stats from the equation. No one predicted Tannehill would play at a sustained elite level with the Titans before he started any games there. At least I remember NO posts like that, not from you nor from anyone else. As I said originally, there were posters saying he'd win the starting job and play well.. but no one suggested anything like "elite".

    Besides, "elite" is generally shown in the stats with larger sample size so in the end there's not much difference.
     
  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    There were a few on this board who predicted that.

    I didn't, but I believed her was capable of it so it didn't surprise me
     
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  20. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Again...7 years ago, I didn't know he would play for Tennessee this season. Nor 6 years ago...or 5...or 4...or 3...or 2...or 1. THIS year, no one knew how he would rebound from the injury. You're focusing on specifics, and ignoring the larger picture. He's on a decent team, with decent coaching, and he's performing at the level we have argued for years he was capable of.
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. if you or anyone else can provide a link to those posts that would definitely end this little debate.

    In any case, I don't remember seeing such posts.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If we're being completely honest here RT did show flashes every season- it just never came together for 16 games. So while you're saying that the stats didn't predict this result, I'm saying that you were paying attention to the wrong stats and ignoring all the outside variables.

    Coaching matters. Play calls matter. Supporting cast matters. Blocking matters. Injuries matter. Saying "hut" once for a run play and twice for a pass also matters, as does corners telling our receivers their route before the ball is even snapped. There were lots of outside factors in Tannehill's career and every QB's career that we completely ignore because they're not currently recognized as "relevant"...but that doesn't mean we should treat players like baseball cards.

    There have been patterns all along that indicated Tannehill could become something special. Just because folks here couldn't quantify what they saw statistically doesn't mean that their argument is invalid and you get to call it a fluke. That's insulting their intelligence more than anything.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    We don't have to make predictions based solely on stats. I'm fine with people making predictions however they see fit. But it's still a fluke if a person's ability to predict is no better than chance level, statistically speaking (there are statistical tests for this btw). And I have yet to see anyone here do so well at predicting how football games unfold or how well specific players will perform in different situations that I'd give them tons of credibility with their predictive ability.

    For example, you can't just focus on people correctly predicting Tannehill could play at an elite level for a season. You have to also look at predictions those people did NOT get right, like past predictions of Tannehill doing well (e.g., in 2018) where statistics-based prediction was more accurate.

    Point is.. it's still a fluke if a person is getting things right at approximately chance level or whatever the historical probability of correct predictions is in that situation. And I don't see the current situation any differently.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2019
  24. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Here's a question: why is Tannehill playing better?

    Can anyone answer that question definitively?
     
  25. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Talent around, is a huge part probably.
     
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  26. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    [​IMG]

    The guy has 2 seasons of 3000 plus passing yards, followed by 4000 yards back to back seasons. Thats 4 years of quality work, and Miami never thought he had elite potenial? Wow.

    Mariota has had ONE 3000 plus yards followed by two garbage staticial seasons and yet Titans fans were still stuck wanting him as the franchise.

    The difference within the fanbase is so weird....
     
  27. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    So if that's true, then what it would mean by extension is that Marcus Mariota, a player who historically has been indistinguishable from Tannehill statistically, is actually inferior to Tannehill by about the same degree as Josh McCown is inferior to Aaron Rodgers.
     
  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Let’s review Gase’s record as a HC.

    There is a theory called pythagorean wins which estimates expected wins based on points scored and points allowed. I find it to be a pretty good indicator of the true strength of a team

    2016: 7.5 expected wins, 10 actual wins
    2017: 4.9 expected wins, 6 actual wins
    2018: 5.1 expected wins, 7 actual wins
    2019: 5.6 expected wins, 7 actual wins.

    Gase’s record as a HC is a mediocre 30-34
    Based on points scored and allowed his teams would be expected to go 23.1-40.9

    I don’t care if Gase was right about Tannehill. His history is that he coaches bad teams to mediocre W-L records. Even if you give him a pass for injuries/illness with his QBs, his defenses have still allowed lots of yards and points.
     
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  29. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That's entirely a function of number of passing attempts, because Mariota's career YPA (yards per pass attempt) is actually higher than Tannehill's, even with this season included.
     
  30. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Efficiency stats are better for judging QB ability than volume stats. For example, passer rating has a correlation with win% of 0.633 across NFL history while passing yards is at 0.3103. The square of those numbers tells you what percentage of variation in win% is explained by each and it's 40% for passer rating while it's only 9.6% for passing yards.

    And there are a lot of examples of QB's with lots of passing yards you wouldn't want to say have elite potential (or at least I wouldn't). For example, take Jameis Winston:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WinsJa00.htm

    Winston came in 1st in passing yards this year with 5109 while he had a below average rating of 84.3. Which in your opinion better describes the QB? And as you can see he also had 2 4000+ yard seasons, one 3500+ season and one season 8 yards shy of 3000, similar to the numbers you described for Tannehill (plus of course the 5000+ season). But Winston is at best average IMO.
     
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  31. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Flota's stats.

    [​IMG]
     
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  32. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    this may be the most bizarre defense of a coach that I have ever seen. His w/l record outperformed his team’s crappy performances on offense and defense?
     
  33. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Again that's a function of yards per pass attempt (YPA).

    Tannehill has had 3,197 career pass attempts and 23,176 passing yards.

    If Mariota had 3,197 career pass attempts, then with his greater YPA he would have 23,997 passing yards, about 800 more than Tannehill.
     
  34. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Mariotas been in the league 5years?
     
  35. Two Tacos

    Two Tacos Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It's the Marino effect, he is comparison for QBs in Miami. Did you see what he did his first full season starting? Plus, the competition for good QBs in the AFC east was Brady. Expectations are skewed.

    ***edit** lucky you right? Dolphins paid how much of Tannehills salary to dominate for your team?
     
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  36. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But his efficiency (YPA) is greater than Tannehill's, and so if he'd been in the league as long as Tannehill and/or had thrown as many passes as Tannehill, he'd actually have more career passing yards than Tannehill.

    Think about it like this: what statistic would you use to determine that Derrick Henry is a better player than Chris Johnson, when Johnson has nearly 8,000 career rushing yards and Henry only about 3,800?
     
  37. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Mariota never had that amount of attempts because he isnt a good thrower, and every coach that was under him knew that.
     
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  38. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Miami ate $5M off his salary.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    But if his coaches would've used him as much as the coaches in Miami used Tannehill, Mariota would've amassed more passing yards than Tannehill.

    The take-home message is that you're not dealing with a player who was lighting the world on fire in Miami.
     
  40. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Not defending Gase at all. Just pointing out that his W-L record has a lot of smoke and mirrors and not much of a base
     
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