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Ryan Tannehill

Discussion in 'Other NFL' started by bbqpitlover, Oct 16, 2019.

Ryan Tannehill is...

  1. A terrible QB

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. A below average QB

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  3. An average QB

    7 vote(s)
    10.0%
  4. An above average QB

    39 vote(s)
    55.7%
  5. An elite QB

    16 vote(s)
    22.9%
  6. The GOAT.

    4 vote(s)
    5.7%
  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    All QBs definitely don't fall into that category, and what we find is that those QBs vary in their performance from season to season just like other QBs, but at a level significantly higher than those other QBs.

    Here's the way to think about what you're saying in my opinion. Consider the following three groups of QBs that map onto your categories. This is just a rough sketch with very little precision.

    Generational talents:
    Average passer rating with good surroundings: 115
    Average passer rating with bad surroundings: 95

    Average QBs:
    Average passer rating with good surroundings: 105
    Average passer rating with bad surroundings: 85

    Bad QBs:
    Average passer rating with good surroundings: 95
    Average passer rating with bad surroundings: 75

    So you can see there is overlap there in how those groups of QBs perform, based on their surroundings, but the degree to which those groups of QBs depend on their surroundings to play well enough to help a team be highly competitive also varies. The generational talents are far less dependent on their surroundings, whereas the bad QBs need the stars to align just to get to the average level of individual performance.

    The mistake I see some people making in their thinking is in assuming that the generational talents play as well as they do because of their surroundings. That isn't the case. Those QBs' vary in their performance at a higher level regardless.

    So you can't plug Andy Dalton into the 2007 New England Patriots for example and expect him to play as well as Tom Brady did in those surroundings. That very likely won't happen. You certainly can't plug John Beck for example into the 2007 Patriots and expect a Tom Brady performance.
     
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Manning was just incredible. Brady has had the fortune of having great talent around him. It’s funny though you mention Brees.

    Prior to his trade from San Diego to New Orleans, all of his stats were within a micro-fractional point of another recently traded quarterback...

    Ryan Tannehill :wink2:
     
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  3. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Manning has had far more talent than Brady has.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That underscores why we need more time to evaluate Tannehill, to determine whether he belongs in the company of Brees et al.

    Prior to Brees's trade, in 2004, Brees posted a season passer rating (104.8) 22 points above the league average that year. Had that been his only great season, he would've been no different from Andy Dalton -- an average QB who had one great season (Dalton's being in 2015).

    Obviously we have to go beyond this single season to determine whether Tannehill belongs in Dalton's company or Brees's.
     
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  5. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Arguable. Belichick is the master-mind there. Their system and success simply doesn't work anywhere else, or without that HC...they were successful even without Brady in 2008. Their team doesn't operate like a normal NFL team, cheating aside. Their level of discipline and cross-training into other positions is well documented and legendary. Peyton's was the same, but he's just one guy.

    Physical talent? Sure.

    Mental talent? Naaa.

    Team cohesiveness? Not even close.

    You put a Peyton Manning on the Patriots this past 20 years, and they'd have been even more disgusting.
     
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  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    You'll find absolutely 0 disagreement from me on any of that really.

    If there is any difference in opinion it's that I do believe a borderline elite or "great" player can sometimes reach elite levels of play, even if it may not be sustainable every year or game.

    Basically I believe you shoot for Peyton, but if you end up with Eli youd better find a supporting cast that lifts him as much as he does them and aim for synergy within the players and system.

    Ideally you want the QB advantage in every game. It's why I said I wasnt shocked we beat the Jets or Colts. Realistically though it may not happen that we have the best QB ever and we need to build a team that is successful as a unit regardless.

    So basically no disagreement on what a top QB can do. Rather just looking at the realistic possibility that even if we hit a draft pick there will still be times we may not have that advantage.
     
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  7. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Theoretically a team can win a Super Bowl with an average QB and a great pass defense, or an average QB who is playing at an elevated level due to his surroundings and a less great but still very good pass defense.

    The question becomes whether you can assemble and maintain such surroundings under the salary cap after the QB gets beyond his rookie contract and then has the salary cap hit of an average quarterback. There has been just a single average quarterback in the past 15 years who has won a Super Bowl while not on his rookie contract (Eli Manning in 2012).
     
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  8. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    One issue I always have with looking into the recent past is that I'm not sure the next era of QB will be as good as what we saw here or that the difference between the top and bottom will be the same.

    I mean in just the last 15 years we've had guys like Brees, Brady, Manning, Rodgers, going down a tier even, Big Ben, Rivers, and more.

    I'm not entirely confident the talent coming into the league will really replace those guys. We may be headed to more parity within the QB position around the league for at least a little while.

    Of course there will always be players better than their peers, I'm just not sure that gap will remain the same.

    Also looking too far back isnt great either because you hit the pre salary cap era where I think it's even harder to pin down environment vs skill in some ways.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
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  9. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Well that's a good point, and you could also have a paradigm shift with regard to the QB position along the lines of Lamar Jackson.
     
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  10. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    That too.

    Then we have to ask is it a paradigm shift where there will be a bunch of Lamar Jacksons or if Jackson himself is just head and shoulders above other dual threat QB's we've seen.

    I do think there is a definite shift towards mobility though. There will be until either rules that help the offensive line are put in place (unlikely) or teams build defenses specifically to stop mobile QBs which might end up opening things back up for pocket passers eventually.
     
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  11. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    That qb index guy nfl network has is a joke
     
  12. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Debateable? Not. Even. Close.

    Yeah the Pats made the playoffs with Matt Cassel but that division wasnt as strong as I can remeber.

    Peyton Manning has never carried a team to win the superbowl. In 2006, Colts defense in the playoff gave up 16.2pts/game which is better than 3 of the 4 playoff defense Brady had during his superbowl year. On offense, Manning threw 3tds to 7ints for the whole playoff (4games total). That Colts team won the superbowl in spite of Manning terrible performance with Manning almost costing them.

    In 2015, Denver defense in the playoff gave up 14.6pts/game which is better than all 4 of Brady's playoff defense that won the superbowl. Manning on offense got 2 tds to 1ints for the whole playoff (3games total). Again Manning basically did nothing on offense to help that team in the playoff.

    Here are some of Manning's playoff gems:

    - lost to Jets, who didn't even make the Super Bowl, 41-0

    - threw 4 interceptions in a 24-14 loss to the Patriots

    - couldn't find the end zone in a 20-3 loss to the Patriots

    - threw the sealing interception in the red zone in a Super Bowl loss to the Saints

    - the Seahawks massacre

    Manning isn't in the same conversation as Brady. Montana is in the conversation with Brady. Manning is in the conversation with Favre and Marino. Guys who were great in the regular season but sucked in the playoffs.

    Ryan Clark who actually played and prepared against both of them numerous times said on First Take if he had a game to win he would go with Brady and its not even close or something you even think about. Clark thought preparing for Brady was much harder. Said something along the lines of Manning was basically a smart game manager who got his team into the right play but "didnt do alot". Clark said he was nervous playing against Brady and that he knew exactly what the Steelers were doing on nearly every play. Manning also had 5x the offensive talent that Brady did so thats why I think he put up better numbers. Brady did however have the better defense until Manning went to DEN which probably helped him get more SB and wins. People keep bringing up Bradys coach as if Manning didn't have a HOF coach in Dungy as well. What does it for me is Manning has a 3-5 TD/INT ratio and a 77.4 passer rating in 4 super bowls. Brady has a 13-4 TD/INT ratio and a 95.3 passer rating in 6 super bowls. Throughout his career Manning has always seemed to underperform when it was a big game compared to Tom who thrived when the pressure was on.

    In terms of who each had on offense throughout their careers:

    Edgerrin James- borderline HOF runningback, fastest & youngest player to 12,000 yards from scrimmage, 11th all time leading rusher

    Marvin Harrison- 3rd all time career reception, 5th all time career receiving TD, 7th all time receiving yards (should be in the HOF)

    Reggie Wayne- 7th all time reception leader , 8th all time receiving yards

    Dallas Clark- Great TE for a short period of time but got killed by injuries

    Demaryius Thomas- Stud at his peak


    Eric Decker- Stud at his peak

    Wes Welker for 1 great year then got hurt

    Julius Thomas - Stud at his peak

    Emmanuel Sanders- Good WR

    Brady's weapons -

    Moss (1 year, broke nearly ever record at the time)

    Gronk (6 years)

    Welker (6 years)

    Edelman- Former QB turned WR



    The Patriots defense in the playoff in 2001 gave up 15.7pts/game, 19pts/game in 2003, 17 pts/game in 2004, and 20.7 pts/game in 2015.

    On offense during playoff, Brady threw 1td - 1int in 2001, 5tds - 2ints in 2003, 5tds - 0ints in 2004, and 10tds - 4ints in 2015. (3games total each year)

    Honestly its embarrasing to compare a legend to a choker
     
  13. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    I just realized this thread is 60 pages long... i had no idea we were past 20.. wow we got some emotional fans here
     
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  14. Silverphin

    Silverphin Well-Known Member

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    Honestly, you should've saw it coming.
     
  15. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Chicken or the egg? Manning was the one throwing all those passes to those receivers who had great careers. Would they have without him? No way to know.

    And a big asterisk on the whole deal, is the cheating. Brady used to roll with full-time communications with the sidelines...FULL-TIME...do you have any idea what that'll do for a team? Past the 15 second cutoff, past the snap, through the play. Not to mention all of the info they've had on other teams throughout the years (much of it was so impactful, the commissioner had to personally witness it's destruction). The cheating was legendary...absolutely.

    Do you ever wonder why a non-athletic, 6th round, #199 pick always knew exactly what a defense was going to do? It's not because he was the smartest guy on the planet.

    My stance was that Brady wasn't given a collection of scrubs and he made chicken salad out of chicken manure...they had the guys Belichick WANTED. He's always had THE guys he wanted, at all positions. It's long known he doesn't need the league's top talented receivers for their system to work...and there are plenty of reasons why. I know all the players Manning had, and all the players Brady had, and there's no way anybody could ever convince me that the Patriots players don't play more disciplined, consistent, reliable football at their position, than any other team...regardless of talent. If they don't, they don't see the field.

    But we can disagree, its all good.
     
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  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Yeah, it's not necessarily about talent. Brady has always, except maybe this year, been surrounded by players who just do their job. It's also interesting to note the statistics Brady puts up WITH Gronk, and what he's done without. Gronk was a massive part of their success. It's just not accurate to pretend Brady has had garbage around him. Really, the comparison I'd make is to moneyball. The Patriots seen to get players who know their role and execute, they don't go after big names or splashy players.
     
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  17. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I think it's embarrassing to compare a known cheater to a guy who, by all accounts, played the game the right way.
     
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  18. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    And the whole deflate-gate thing wasn't even THAT big a deal on its own...I mean, it may help them not fumble at a very slightly better rate, but he was DEFINITELY implicated in that whole deal...there's no denying he was involved in it.

    But you add that in with the other times they've been caught and it paints a bad picture. They've been caught multiple times...how many times have they NOT been caught? It's in their DNA.

    Edit: And why is it, EVERY coach/player that leaves the Patriots (except maybe Garappolo) stink to the high heavens after they leave...but look like world-beaters on the Patriots? Speaks more to whether they need top-tier talent or not.
     
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  19. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    More time to evaluate Tannehill, huh? Hmmmmm, let's see...

    The Miami Dolphins had the choice of Daunte Culpepper and Drew Brees. I was one of the ones in the Brees camp, but alas, the Dolphins went with Culpepper. There were too many questions about his shoulder. He was just average to a little above average in San Diego and the Dolphins passed and went with Culpepper.

    The Titans did NOT make the same mistake in nabbing up Tannehill. All of you who are beating this drum of needing more time to evaluate him, mark my words...bookmark this post...whatever you need to do because I need no more time to evaluate him. I've already evaluated Tannehill and have KNOWN what he is...

    I'll be sure to have my freezer stocked with crow to serve all of you, because you're going to be eating a LOT of it! I'm sure I can find a decent recipe.
     
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  20. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Deglategate was disproven by science.

    Good thing they've won 3 Super Bowls since both of those unacceptable "cheating" scandals or the tinfoil hat brigade might have a leg to stand on.

    I get hating the Pats but when fans smoking gun is a deflated football that was disproven by middle school science projects you really need to reevaluate how far you want to take the hate.

    They all cheat and nobody cares when somebody even good gets caught. Its when the greats get caught everybody all of a sudden has a huge moral stance. I mean do people really believe players can be 6 5 and 280 and run a 4.40 40 without being on PED's?
     
  21. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    Whether or not the Patriots are cheaters is open for debate. I personally have my own opinion but in the grander scheme of things...especially all of you who have Tom Brady everything...

    The Patriots are going to be just fine post Brady. They are going to suck to the highest level of sucktivity post Belichick.
     
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  22. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    Has Manning ever played a single game without a pro-bowl level pass catcher on the field with him? His teams have always invested into receiving talent. The Pats for whatever reason can't scout or draft WRs and refuse to waste 1st rounders on sure thing prospects. Their crowning achievement at the WR position the past decade wasn't even drafted to be a WR.



    "WR don't matter for the Pats because of the system." Oh yes the mythical system that magically places the ball in the hands of below average-ok wide receivers anywhere on the field despite the defense. The same system that no other team has managed to replicate in 15+ years despite it being a copycat league. It's almost like teams can't replicate it because they're missing some HOF level constant that is the sole reason the "system" has worked for so long despite the receiving talent.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 31, 2019
  23. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    What did you not get about "the whole deflate-gate thing wasn't THAT big a deal on its own?"

    The smoking gun is the 2nd speaker in his helmet, that his own team-mate made public.

    The other smoking guns were a video camera at another team's practice...the vault of information that had to be destroyed in front of Goodell. Not to mention the most recent incident.

    Who "even good gets caught" besides the Patriots? Sorry...you get caught 4+ times, you get no benefit of the doubt from me...whatsoever. Call it tinfoil hat all you want, the proof is in the pudding, and it spoiled years ago. There is not a chance in hell they're not cheating EVERY year.
     
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  24. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    For crying out loud, McNally and Jastremski referred to him as "the deflator" and joked about making the balls "like balloons" after Brady complained about the balls one time. I don't care what the science you saw says, you have the guys directly involved talking about it with each other via text. And there was other science that said it was possible.
     
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  25. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The fact that I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with a quarterback who has six previous seasons of average play, with regard to whether he can become part of Drew Brees's company, is hardly a slight toward that QB. The fact that I'm even leaving open that possibility is highly complimentary and speaks volumes about the influence of his current performance.
     
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  26. Cashvillesent

    Cashvillesent A female Tannehill fan

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    My favorite part of the science was when he threw for 300+ yards and 4 TDs against an all-time great secondary a few weeks later when the game balls were probably locked in a bullet proof box until the game. Or when he won an MVP and 2 superbowls more after that. But hey man whatever it takes to help you rationalize why one team can dominate for over a decade.
     
  27. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    You're acting like tampering with the balls makes a huge difference. It doesn't. Which is why it was all the more ridiculous that they denied it, even with the damning texts that everyone saw.

    Further, Super Bowl wins are a team accomplishment. Like when the defense held the Falcons to nothing after they went down 28-3.
     
  28. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or serious but tampering with the balls makes a massive difference offensively. I just woke up and my reading comprehension is kind of bad currently lol

    It makes the ball much easier to catch on a hot throw because a well inflated ball has the tendency to bounce against you harder.

    I dont know where the idea some people have that being great and being a cheater are exclusive. A person or team can be the best naturally and still cheat. It doesnt justify the cheating just because you may have won anyway.

    If I line up to race Usain Bolt and he trips me to start the race he still cheated regardless of how badly he was going to leave me in the dust to start with.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2019
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  29. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I'm sorry, I just don't buy it. When you're taking about the most elite in the world, I don't think it matters that much. As was pointed out, Brady threw just fine with the balls under intense scrutiny. So, for me, it's cheating just to cheat.
     
  30. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    What a well thought out response.
     
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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Good luck getting the same guy's who wouldn't criticize Ryan Tannehill if their lives depended on it, and do nothing less than try and minimize great QB's like Brady and Wilson.

    It's became some weird defense mechanism.

    Yes, Brady used to have the ball boy doctor the ball......Jerry Rice has laughably admitted to using "stick'em" on his hands. Did this matter in the big picture between good and great? HELL NO! It is silly to even suggest that.

    I have no love for Tom Brady, he graduated from Michigan (I'm a Buckeye) and play's for a team that has been a thorn in my teams backside for 2 decades. But the distain I feel doesn't cloud common sense. He is one of the best Qb's to ever play the game, period.
     
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  32. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    Would you play poker with a buddy who had been proven to cheat when he plays?

    Yes, because Jerry Rice admitted to using stickum, I no longer consider him the GOAT. How can I put him above players that didn't cheat?

    On the Tannehill front, let's not get things twisted. Myself and others fight back against unfair criticisms. For instance, the garbage narrative that Tannehill wasn't good enough to win with. But go ahead and try and start that fight again.

    No one was trying to minimize Wilson. The argument always was that Wilson benefitted from a strong run games and historic defenses. We all say he's elite.
     
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  33. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm a little confused what you mean.

    My point is that cheating is wrong regardless of how great a team you are. If you were going to win anyway it still doesn't make it okay in my eyes.
     
  34. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    I actually agree with what you are saying on the surface. I just think there is MUCH more grey area in there and not nearly so black and white.
     
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  35. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I was just saying that I don't think at the level of NFL QBs that balls being a little under inflated or over inflated makes much difference for them. They may prefer them a certain way, but they are certainly capable of throwing it well either way.

    I agree with your sentiments on cheating.
     
  36. FinFaninBuffalo

    FinFaninBuffalo Well-Known Member

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    Another ranking at 5. Above guys he has been outplaying.
    upload_2019-12-28_11-34-51.jpeg
     
  37. PhinFan1968

    PhinFan1968 To 2020, and BEYOND! Club Member

    Come on now bro...you know we have criticized RT. To this day, he's lacking in pocket awareness, nobody would argue that, but the rest of his toolkit seems to have come together nicely. Takes some risky throws, doesn't throw the ball away instead of taking a sack when he has the opportunity, those are all criticisms.

    And everybody has their own level of what they accept from a "fair competition" sport. The inflate thing was minor...nobody's saying that single incident diminishes Brady by itself. It's the collective. Maybe had they not cheated, they don't win 6 Super Bowls and they're like every other team in the league struggling to maintain dominance and manage 2-3. Nobody has EVER dominated the league like they have...especially in the "parity" era. Too many stories of, "it seemed like the defense knew what play we were running before we did," kinda stuff in addition to the known FOUR instances of being caught cheating. I don't understand how anybody could think they don't cheat every year. I don't care how many rings they win...*

    Are they great? How can anybody really put an exact judgement on it? No way of knowing how much the cheating helped...but if it didn't...why KEEP doing it?
     
  38. Vertical Limit

    Vertical Limit Senior Member

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    The coaching staff in Tennessee recognized his pocket issues and ive seen a lot more moving pockets in Tennessee than what Tannehill got under Gase and Philbin. And we all know he can complete passes on the run.
     
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  39. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    The question is whether that can hold up over the long haul, because when you roll a quarterback out like that, you reduce his throwing options to only half the field. If rolling a quarterback out was altogether positive, teams would do it on every passing play and there would be no such thing as a pocket passer.

    This is part of what made Jake Plummer play well when he went from Arizona to Denver and started playing in Mike Shanahan’s offense that featured a heavy dose of the same kind of play-action rollouts.
     
  40. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

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    Rolling a QB out does reduce the field (although not as much with strong armed QBs), but it's not a question of sustainability.
     

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