Don't want to start a flame war but I tend to agree with you.. On on many of his stellar throws he had plenty of time to throw.. But the guy in the pocket hasn't changed much from his time here. I'm not taking anything away from him or downplaying his success one iota, but to my eyes he is still a bit slow to react when facing pressure. As pointed out in this thread it's not a fatal flaw, but it does occasionally kill a drive or two. And you are correct, against a team like NO you needed every drive.. Although you could also argue that Tannehill was marching them downfield for the go ahead TD and the drive got killed by a cheap head shot that wasn't called.
I'm also reminded of 2014 when Tannehill was on a roll and the defense collapsed against Denver in a shootout 39-36.. Brandon Albert got injured that game too.. And that season went down in flames.. He just hasn't had a lot of luck when things get tight, a lot of which has nothing to do with his play. Would love to see him win on Sunday and start a playoff game.
It's not a fatal flaw until it happens against the best QBs and teams in the league, when you need all your ducks in a row to win. That's when the stellar passer rating, YPA, and passer rating differential need to translate to as many points as possible, rather than being undermined by another variable (i.e., sacks) that isn't reflected in those statistics.
In defense of Tannehill, you have to counterbalance that by his accuracy downfield (points that most other QB's may not be able to execute on) and when he escapes the pocket and throws downfield.. The TD in the 4th quarter when they were down 10 is an example of 7 points that most other QB's couldn't execute on. (the play where he rolled to the right, threw across his body downfield the to the left for a TD).
Again, debunked... Ive already painstakingly illustrated points per game for the Titans with Tannehill under center. In Tennessee’s loss to NO, they scored...wait for it...28 points, a mere 1 point less than their average with him as QB. Tannehill is doing exactly what he is supposed to do. He is precisely producing what his overall stats are consummate to his overall rating. What Tannehill is not doing, and never has been able to is convince others that he’s just as great a quarterback as any of the “elites” because when the Dolphins then, or the Titans now lose a game, it MUST be his fault. There’s no other explanation. Those other 10 that go out on the field with Tannehill must just be lawn decorations...and the same goes for the defense when they’re on the field. Pure lawn decorations. Football is nothing more than a quarterback exposition...which is why so many were singing praises for Kaepernick’s one on nothing expo. I still hold to my guns everything I have EVER said about Tannehill, then as a Dolphin and now as a Titan. I have the facts to back up everything and facts are stubborn things...they just can’t be disputed.
Lol whats funny about this thread is that Titans fans arent having discussions about whether Tannehill is at fault for the losses or if he sucks.. theyre talking about extending him, and putting more talent on him, fixing the offensive line the upcoming offseason. i was probably the most critical on Tannehill and even i have seen his turnaround.. you all gotta be real about Tannehill, hes a different player now.
28 points is more than 5 fewer than what's expected for a passer rating of 133 and a YPA of 10.1. That's the point.
Yep, and they're also talking about whether to re-sign Henry...I don't see why they wouldn't do whatever they can to bring both back. Could be a 4 or 5 year power combo.
OK.. let me weigh in on this. So, using z-scores, which everyone here should be using since you can't calculate expected PPG from PR unless you adjust for era, this is the relationship you get across NFL history: The intercept of that line is precisely at 0 so the only information necessary is the slope which is 0.7857. That tells you that whatever the z-score is for passer rating the expected z-score for PPG is 0.7857 times that. Tannehill's current z-score rating (this keeps changing as more games by other teams are played btw) is 2.3806. The question is what is Tennessee's PPG z-score under Tannehill? The issue here is that Tannehill has played in 10 games but started 9. In that first game he had 16 passing attempts while Mariota (who started) had 18 passing attempts. So the weight for Tannehill on that first game where Tennessee scored 0 points is 16/(16+18) = 0.4706 while the weight on all other games is 1. That means Tennessee's weighted average PPG under Tannehill is (total points)/(sum of weights) = 269/9.4706 = 28.4037, which corresponds to a z-score (using team PPG) of 1.3286. So.. Tannehill's passer rating z-score is 2.3806 which means expected PPG z-score is 2.3806*0.7857 = 1.8704, while actual PPG z-score is 1.3286, so The Guy is right in pointing out that actual PPG is less than expected. However.. do NOT use ranks for the calculation!!! That's not the end of the story though. If you look at that above graph, the vertical spread gives you a standard deviation of approximately 0.7, meaning that just through random variation alone you'd expect 2/3 of all cases to lie within 0.7 z-score of that line. And the difference between actual and expected is 1.8704-1.3286 = 0.5418 which is less than a standard deviation. So in summary: 1) Tennessee's PPG under Tannehill is less than expected based on Tannehill's passer rating by 0.5418 z-scores. 2) That 0.5418 difference is more than consistent with random variation.
They They got 49 million in cap space in 2020.. theyll be able to sign both and still add talent.. plus they got some tough decisions to make on some underperforming players. taylor lewans contract has no guarantee money left after this season. He may be on his way out.
Maybe the best description of how sack rate, INTs, and big plays interact. Exactly my thoughts on the matter and something I have pointed out about Wilson in the past.
Tanny like majority of QBs take some hits they shouldnt take, but if thats the only flaw thats in his game Ill take that anyday of the week compared to a noodle arm Marcus Marifloata Resign this guy. Unload the brinks truck. Titans have talent and Tanny can take us places if we continue to build on the OL
I'm so happy for Tannehill. I can't imagine what it's like for you guys to go from dreading who you have at QB, with little hope of it improving, to what you've gotten over the past 9 weeks or so...overnight.
Final thoughts on this. I totally agree with the point of view of @AdamHarstad. It is the reason why I never dinged Wilson for his high sack rate. IMO, it was by design. Tannehill, in Miami OTOH, did not have the big play numbers to justify the sack rate. The Dolphins were actively sacrificing big play opportunities in an effort to try to limit the number of sacks. Other than for short periods, the OL was never good enough to make that happen. Fast forward to Tannehill in Tenn. Sack rate may very well be similar but, it is accompanied by top of the league number of big plays, a league leading YPA, and good INT numbers. THAT is the difference. They are trading sacks for big plays and TDs. Every single team in the NFL is trying to achieve a balance based on their system and their personnel. 0 sacks in a season is not a good thing if it is combined with a ton of INTs, little offensive production, and/or no big plays. This is the thing that is so hard to explain to people who do not understand football.
Is that ONLY PPG based on TDs by the offense? Does it take into account FGs? Edit: Reason I ask, is Tennessee's kicking situation is horrible. 5 of 15 FGs on the year from their first 2 kickers...not to mention how that would impact a coach's decision based on confidence.
For me, it doesn't even matter. With the numbers Tannehill is putting up, if the points are lower than expected, then you've got to look elsewhere for the culprit.
I hate to ask you to do more work, but can you determine whether sack percentage is a significant covariate?
Well, the fact that its within one standard deviation takes away any real credence on its own, from the statistical perspective...but there are other glaring reasons too, is my point.
They already signed and released two Kickers. Succoop has been injured all year and they just signed a random off the street guy named Joseph.
Malcom Butler, and Adoore Jackson. They've had legit secondary until the two went out. Adoore was back last week but Butlers has been out since week 5.
The idea that it everything is on a QB is easily proven wrong with basic logic. Imagine lining up 11 on 2. Only a center and QB on offense. Can the QB put up the same rating he would with 9 more players? Now make those 9 players into Toddlers so its 11 on 11 again. Do you expect the QB to have good numbers? Now take out the toddlers and add in the best freshman and sophomore players in college. Success may increase but the QB isnt reaching his full potential. Okay, now let's make the 9 college players into a standard NFL player. They are all adequate but none are considered a star player. Now the QB will probably be able to hit some sort of baseline for his play. He will most likely have some great games (if he has the skill) and some bad games. Now let's make those 9 players the top at their position. Now the QB will most likely exceed his normal play. Why? Now his unit is winning more individual battles where they couldnt before. None of this even includes coaching and play calling. The only way to put everything on a QB is if you want to argue there is almost equal parity in team talent around the league EXCEPT at QB. I find this idea illogical. Obviously the QB needs talent, but basing the talent to succeed solely on performance CAN BE misleading. It may not always be, and usually may be accurate, but again it can be misleading.
You could also argue that QB is the only position that impacts the game the most. They have the ball in their hands majority of the time. But I do agree with you. Stats are pretty much worthless especially for a game like football
Jags fans are furious.. they've signed Foles to huge contract hoping that his their savior, to a guy that was outplayed by a 6th rd QB, Minshew, and we basically got Tanny for a 4th rd pick, also half the salary. Oh man, Jaguars are absolutely trash. I have no idea why their even in Florida
They got an excellent package for Jalen Ramsey though. They can stack picks and trade up for anyone they want. it wouldnt shock me at all if they end up with Tua even though I dont see Tua being a successful quarterback in the NFL. as of right now theyre picking 6th.. they may take the Tua gamble. And it wont be a successful gamble, Mariota 2.0..
You see, this is where your argument again falls apart. You're equating Tennessee's defense's inability to stop New Orleans' offense with Tannehill's performance.
Shows what type of person you’re dealing with when they cannot accept that Tannehill is crushing it on another team. Instead they try to make excuses and bring out the negatives.
Whether Tennessee is scoring the number of points that are expected as a function of Tannehill’s performance has nothing to do with Tennessee’s defense.
Where exactly do you see it being said that everything is on the QB? What we do know is that quarterbacks are by far the most sought after players in the league in terms of draft and salary resources, and so unless the league as a whole is mistaken, they are by far the most important players on the field.
Freaking Corey Davis smh. Dude was drafted with the #5th overall pick and hasnt came closely to living up to the hype
He did catch that ball but his hand came down out of bounds just a nick before his knee came down in bounds. Unlucky really
corner level is ripe for the exploiting due to attrition. Jackson I don’t think even played this last game. not a good mix for a road playoff game vs kc should the titans get there
