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QB or Chase Young?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Galant, Oct 28, 2019.

  1. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Chad Pennington played only four seasons in the league in which he started 10 or more games. In three of those four seasons he did not participate in a gimmick offense such as the Wildcat.

    In the first of those seasons his passer rating was 23.8 points above the average passer rating in the league.

    In the second of those seasons his passer rating was 8.2 points above the league average.

    In the third of those seasons his passer rating was 2.2 points above the league average.

    So it's highly unlikely that Pennington's performance with the Dolphins in 2008 -- in which his passer rating was 14.2 points above the league average -- was due to the Wildcat or some other feature of his surroundings.

    The far better explanation based on the data is that his individual ability was quite good when he was healthy.
     
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  2. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I dont disagree that we needed it to do what we did. I also dont disagree that perhaps he does get too much credit from some who want to put him on that level.

    That said, he still did his job extremely efficiently that season far beyond what most of our other QB have been able to do.

    It's like fondly remembering your favorite ex or something. It doesn't mean he or shes the greatest thing in the world, just that they gave you a better experience than others you've had.
     
  3. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think Pennington's career has to be demarcated into 4 periods: 2002-2005, 2006 pre Wildcat (2006 up to and including the first two games of 2008), 2008 (games 3-16), and post-2008. Except for the Wildcat those demarcations are due to important injuries.

    Pennington in that first period (2002-2005) was a very good QB, but Pennington in that 2nd period post-injury and pre-Wildcat was closer to average, and if you do a t-test with unequal sample sizes for the 27 games in that 2nd period vs. the 14 games in the 3rd period you get statistical significance. Adjusting ratings the p-value is 0.0489 which is statistically significant (barely but still).

    So that shows that from a statistical point of view the introduction of the Wildcat raised Pennington's performance.
     
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  4. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    Conceptually that's plausible, and of course statistically it's sound, but it's difficult for me to believe that an offensive gimmick in which the quarterback is either off the field or participates by doing things other than throwing the ball (aside from the very small number of plays in which a running back tossed the ball to Pennington and he threw it) could have a significant effect on the quarterback's performance.

    The relationship between running back and quarterback play would be more plausibly stronger if the quarterback was on the field and lined up behind center, and the defense had to guess largely whether the running back or the quarterback would be the focus of the play. Conceivably a quarterback would benefit far greater from having simply a Barry Sanders type player than by having the Wildcat.

    With the Wildcat by contrast, the quarterback was almost always off the field or not participating in the play, and so when Pennington was in fact on the field, the Wildcat couldn't possibly affect what he did. Unlike with the traditional running game in the NFL, when Wildcat personnel was on the field, it was impossible to make an opposing defense have to guess whether the Wildcat would be run or Pennington would pass the ball. The opposing defense simply knew with almost complete certainty that Pennington wouldn't be passing the ball.

    So when Pennington was on the field and lined up behind center, how in fact was the Wildcat aiding in his performance?
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    That's a good point.

    The only causal mechanisms I can think of are: 1) opposing players and coaches aren't optimally adjusting to what they see (it's like pro baseball players getting fooled by the sequence of pitches.. the batter may know that the pitcher is throwing to one side of the plate and outside the strike zone on one pitch so that the next pitch is more likely to "fool" the batter, yet the batter is nevertheless fooled because his brain can't "not adjust" lol), and 2) the Wildcat put the passer in situations (on subsequent plays) where he's more likely to be more effective.
     
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  6. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    I'm going to back this logic.

    There are some advantages I can see, but they mostly seem like they would impact total numbers, not efficiency numbers.

    For example the ability to convert third downs using the WC can give Pennington more chances to throw, more yards and TD's but it isnt directly impacting his play when he is on the field. He still needs to perform.

    It can tire a defense down but so can a standard run game. It can improve field position but so can a strong defense.

    If anything it helped the areas around Pennington reach the level they needed to be at to make the playoffs.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Ooh, I don't agree about the Bills part....their defense looks LEGIT! Really hoping the Bills knock out the Pats in the playoffs this season.
     
  8. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    I would need to see some fairly strong evidence of a causal mechanism(s) before I attributed his elevation in passer rating in 2008 to the Wildcat, when he posted a passer rating previously in his career that was far more above average, without the Wildcat.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I don't think that's accurate- I remember Penny as a solid, weak-armed QB who had a good season. I wouldn't guess most fans put him anywhere near the "mythical" category...but maybe I'm wrong. After all, most fans are stupid when it comes to sports.
     
  10. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    Agreed. I find the wild carry being more overrated for the success of that season.

    Dolphins had a year of low mistake football and not any big injuries.
     
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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Or he simply played better those last 13 games.

    If you were arguing the opposite point here, you'd tell me- "You can't judge Tannehill on that 10-game stretch since it's too small of a sample size." And I'd agree with you, especially since the Fins had the 2nd weakest strength of opponent that season (NE had the softest) and they unveiled a new offense. So while I agree that he did play "better" for Miami, I think it's pretty tough to nail down the exact cause since a lot changed that season (new team, new coaching, new routes, new line, new receivers, weak schedule AND the Wildcat).

    So while I agree with you...I don't agree with how you got there. The Wildcat was one of many factors involved.
     
  12. The Guy

    The Guy Well-Known Member

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    That team had nearly a +20-point passer rating differential and led the league with a +17 turnover differential, and so two of the biggest predictors of winning in the league were well in its favor. The team also played the fifth-weakest schedule in the league that year.

    When they got to the playoffs all of that fell apart. They played a team that finished 12-4, their passer rating differential in that game was nearly -6, and their turnover differential in that game was -4. It's no wonder they were beaten convincingly. They were unable to sustain any of what made them successful in the regular season.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  13. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Sample size is not an issue here. The smaller of the two datasets (games 3-16 in 2008) comprise 413 passing attempts which is essentially a full season. And the 2-sample t-test for unequal sample sizes takes into account the differences in sample size between the two samples. So while I agree with The Guy that we need to have a stronger argument for the Wildcat being the cause, the statistical analysis is sound here.
     
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  14. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    I might possibly stand corrected on this come playoff time. I certainly hope you are right, Buffalo happens to be the only other team in our division that I can somewhat stand when they aren't playing against us. It's always been hard for me to hate the Bills after Scott Norwood and the four Super Bowl losses. So with that said, I hope I am wrong. Their offense needs to find a way to get going, I like Josh Allen and Singletary.
     
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  15. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    It's funny, I've rooted for the Bills and Jets in the playoffs for two decades now once we're eliminated. But this season? LMAO, I've been rooting for the Bills all year since they can somewhat challenge New England.

    Hopefully I can be back to hating them in 2020. =)
     
  16. Makados10

    Makados10 Active Member

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    QB 100% and its not even close.
     
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