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2019 Draft Best case/worse case/Likely case

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by my 2 cents, Apr 25, 2019.

  1. my 2 cents

    my 2 cents Well-Known Member

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    Don;t post much any more but this year is where you get to see same ole same ole or actually a new Miami.....I personally think the best move with some many holes and a lot of compression between picks 13 and 25 is to trade back.....but if Miami stays at 13 I say:

    Worst case scenario: Rashan Gary, forget that he was unproductive, he wins splitting gaps and there are too many instances where he totally loses ball awareness when he wins with gap penetration. He is a one trick any rushing the passer and gets caught outside in in the run game.....he just does not translate even on his best days...most overrated and likely over drafted 1st rounder since Larry English or Christian Ponder.

    Best Case scenario: Devin White or Jawaan Taylor fall. Doubt it happens but Devin White is an absolute menace in both the pass and run game, active, high energy and loves to compete..has the tools and the on field attitude to make a huge difference. I also look at Taylor as a safe high upside low floor pick.

    Likely case: I agree with many that Christian Wilkins fits schematically and is a foundation piece to start a rebuild and is the likely pick if they stay put...but a lot like the Suh signing it is just overspending by position. This would indicate more of same ole same ole by overspending.....at some point the light bulb has to go on and you stop rationalizing resource mismanagement by position....at 13 you protect your QB, lock down a WR, pressure a QB or take a QB you have conviction on...other than that you are likely over drafting. Also I think Christian Wilkins is an ordinary player when he is identified and isolated...not terrible but not a 13.....20-25 I personally think is a much more commensurate value position if you take Christian Wilkins .......JMHO.
     
    mbsinmisc, Zigs, DolphinGreg and 2 others like this.
  2. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    I agree trading down will probably be the best option for us. In a deep draft like this having more picks could be more valuable than picking up a guy like Wilkins at 13.

    If we can trade down to the mid to late 20's and still have Wilkins or a Cleilin ferrell available while picking up a few extra picks would be ideal.
     
    Irishman likes this.
  3. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

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    Worst Case - We sell the farm and move up to draft Daniel Jones. :D (Or any QB not named Kyler Murray) or we do get Kyler Murray and he's a bust.

    Worst Case at 13 - any QB not named Murray.
    Best Case - I really don't know, there's too much unknown with the new coaching staff etc. and we've got too many holes. Best case would be a home run hit at any position.
    Likely Case - we trade back. And more picks might actually be the best case scenario here. I think I'm hoping for it.
     
  4. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Another thing to consider is QB.

    If you don't secure a QB at #13 this year you are going into next year's draft with QB as your #1 priority.

    That means you need as much ammo and flexibility as possible for next year. So in a way, if you don't go QB, a trade-down may be optimal.
     
    Galant likes this.
  5. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Best case: We end up with Dwayne Haskins or Kyler Murray. I wouldn't even mind a reasonable trade. Outside of QB, I would LOVE if Ed Oliver somehow made it to us.

    Worst case: Not a fan of Rashan Gary, production and effort were lacking imo. Taking DK Metcalf would be a huge blunder for similar reasons. I would also hate to reach for an interior lineman at 12.

    Most likely: We stand pat take our top rated from the OL/DL/DE/CB group. Wilkins, Sweat and Ferrell on the DL, Williams and Taylor at OL, maybe Baker and Williams at CB.

    I think we are open to trading both up and down, but the price has to be right. I'd start by looking at the Green Bay/New Orleans trade from last year.
     
  6. DolphinGreg

    DolphinGreg Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Yeah, it might sound too idealistic but if I'm in the top half of R1 I really don't want anyone that doesn't play either CB, DE, LT or QB.

    Those are the positions where impact players seem to fall off most quickly after R1.

    If you draft any other position, you better be able to make a case that you're getting an absolute stud that will be a league-leader at his position (i.e. Earl Thomas, Luke Kuechly, Quenton Nelson, etc.).

    Since Miami badly needs both QB and DE those are the obvious picks. Without options there, I think Miami looks to trade down with a CB or a DT being a next-best thing.
     
    texanphinatic likes this.
  7. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

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    The only position I dont want in the top half of the first is a guard, kicker or punter honestly.

    Just about any other position provides value if you choose the right guy.
     
  8. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    Best case - Kyler Murray slips to the Raiders, to whom the Dolphins send Xavien Howard, a 1st, and a 3rd to move up.

    Couldn't even tell you if the draft board math adds up. LOL
     
  9. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

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    Best case scenario is Kyler Murray, but I don't think that is going to happen.
    Worst case scenario would be drafting for an immediate need as opposed to the best player available.
    What is likely to happen? At this point I think it's going to be a boring day one pick. I think it'll be an interior player on either offense or defense. Now I say boring, but that doesn't mean that player wont have an impact or be a mainstay for us. Kyler Murray, DK Metcalf, Drew Lock....Those are shiny sexy picks....Cody Ford is a trench player and a boring pick. I think that is what we end up doing.

    For the record I absolutely HATE this whole Tank for Tua narrative that the fan base is running with, but it's not really up to me. I definitely want a quarterback. Watching Ryan Fitzpatrick all year long will eventually cause me to erupt in anger and go into an explosive rage. I like Fitz as a mentor/short term QB, but I really hope we look at a guy (Will Grier) on day two...Or Drew Lock if he falls (I think he will).
     
  10. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    It's ridiculous for a lot of reasons. You can't march guys out there with the idea they're losing on purpose - that's how you get physically hurt. I mean c'mon tanking makes a lot of assumptions that are NOT guaranteed.
     
  11. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Anyone redoing this for rounds 2-3?

    Best case: One of Greedy Williams, Cody Ford, Jawaan Taylor falls to us (in round 2). CBs Justin Layne and Julian Love in round 3 would be a steal. If we don't grab a CB in 2-3, I'd look hard at David Long and Kris Boyd in rounds 4-5 tomorrow.

    Worst case: Any QB in rounds 2-3.

    Most likely: Feeling a trade down - unless Ross has guaranteed 4 years to Flores and Grier, they NEED ammo for 2020 to ensure a top QB. If we stand pat or keep a pick in these rounds ... gotta think pass rush, OL or CB. I think we are about to see a number of WR, OL and CB come rushing off the board, maybe that sets us up for a pressure player. Zach Allen and Chase Winovich are Patriots style players through and through. Allen probably in 2, Chase may last until our 3.
     
  12. NickyNapoleon

    NickyNapoleon Active Member

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    Depends, I said Nelson was the best player in last years draft. Immediate All pro and pro bowl player. He changed the demeanor on Indys OL...
     
  13. NickyNapoleon

    NickyNapoleon Active Member

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    You just watched the Jets add Quinnen Williams and Oliver went to Buffalo. You better find a C and a good one!
     
  14. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    There are a several that could come off the board certainly. Wouldn't be mad about any of them. Then again, keeping Ryan Fitzpatrick upright probably isn't a requirement for this team if the FO really is aiming at a high pick next year. :up:
     
  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Nelson is an exception. I heard a nice analogy yesterday - Nelson is the Orlando Pace of guards. About as sure thing, generational, HOF bound kind of guy that one can get. There aren't any Nelsons this year, and probably won't be for some time again. Most teams taking a guard high probably would be happy if they develop into a DeCastro or Scherff. Whether those two guys provide the team impact to make them worth their selection? That's a worthy debate imo.
     
  16. NickyNapoleon

    NickyNapoleon Active Member

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    Yeah but tou want those rookie mistakes to not be taken out on your franchise rookie QB next year
     
  17. NickyNapoleon

    NickyNapoleon Active Member

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    I would have actually traded up for Nelson, I was that high on him. I think he is a better Larry Allen... In this draft I would have moved up for Devin White, I think he is the prototype for LBs going forward. Deandre Baker is going to be a very good CB.

    My guys to stay away from in this draft are Gary, Brian Burns, DK Metcalf, Daniel Jones... I think all of them have bust written all over them.
     
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