1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Miami Is Likely to Face ‘Win-and-In’ Scenario in Week 17

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by thetylernator, Dec 4, 2018.

  1. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    Miami Is Likely to Face ‘Win-and-In’ Scenario in Week 17

    With just a quarter of the 2018 NFL regular season to go, only a handful of teams remain in the wildcard hunt—and the Dolphins are a surprising favorite out of the AFC.

    As of Week 13, they hold onto 7th place, trailing the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens. Much of Baltimore’s resurgence can be attributed to Lamar Jackson, who has been sensational as a dual-threat quarterback. However, his passing game leaves much to be desired, and it’s asking a lot of a rookie quarterback to continue producing with NFL team’s actively studying and adjusting to better deal with his legs. In the coming weeks, Baltimore travels to the Kansas City Chiefs (10-2), hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7), travels to the Los Angeles Chargers (9-3), and ends the season hosting the Cleveland Browns (4-7-1). Realistically, it’s safe to say that the Ravens win 2 of those 4, ending the season at 9-7.

    The Indianapolis Colts (6-6) suffered a major setback this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are playing for morale at this point in a lost season. In the coming weeks, the Colts travel to the Houston Texans (9-3), host the Dallas Cowboys (7-5), host the New York Giants (4-8), and travel to the Tennessee Titans (6-6). These games are more difficult to project, two of which are divisional in Houston and Tennessee, and the other two being interconference against a similarly talented team in Dallas and a New York squad that matches up surprisingly well with the Colts, who are allowing 104 RYPG and must find a way to contain a future all-pro in Saquon Barkley. Even so, I project Indianapolis to finish 9-7, with a sole loss coming against the surging Cowboys.

    The Tennessee Titans (6-6) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8), travel to the New York Giants (4-8), host the Washington Redskins (6-6), and the Indianapolis Colts (6-6). The Titans, with three home games remaining and a favorable schedule, will need to overcome the inconsistency that has plagued them this season to put together a string of 3-4 wins. I project them to win two games, against the Jaguars and the Redskins, ending at 8-8. Unfortunately for them, a 3rd win (assuming Miami manages 9 wins themselves) won’t be enough to win a tiebreaker.

    The Broncos (6-6) travel to the San Francisco 49ers (2-10), host the Cleveland Browns (4-7-1), travel to the Oakland Raiders (2-10), and host the Los Angeles Chargers (9-3), amounting to what looks like the most favorable schedule of these wildcard-chasing teams. Personally, I don’t think this team is coached well enough to go flawless through this stretch, which is what they will need to unseat Miami in the event of a 9-7 tie. Regardless, I project 2-2, with losses coming in a pair of classic trap game at San Francisco and Oakland.

    Miami must overcome a healthy number of obstacles themselves, and this is certainly no guarantee. There are many justified concerns about coaching, play calling, and quarterback play. Make no mistake, though: this team is very good at winning games they shouldn’t, and as we learned in 2016, coming out on top in close contests. They’re not flashy. They’re gritty, mistake-prone, and scrappy. But this is exactly the type of team that ends up clinching the final wildcard spot.

    As we all know, the Dolphins host the New England Patriots (9-3), travel to the Minnesota Vikings (6-5-1), host the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8), and travel to the Buffalo Bills (4-8).

    Miami generally plays New England tough in South Florida, and I firmly believe the Patriots are walking into a trap. Had they lost against the Vikings last week, this would be a much more difficult game; but between that win and Pittsburgh’s brutal loss, New England’s path to a bye is clear—especially if they can beat the Steelers in Week 15. There is no chance the New England players aren’t glancing over Miami and looking ahead to Pittsburgh. Miami wins a close one.

    Battling Minnesota [not in the dead-of-winter] is going to be tough, and I’m projecting a loss by more than a touchdown. I expect a rebound game against the broken Jaguars the following week at home, as we enter a ‘win-and-in’ scenario in Week 17.

    Buffalo played a great game last week, and by all accounts, they outplayed Miami. Obviously, Josh Allen’s legs were the biggest issue, and hopefully Miami knows what adjustments they need to make to contain him. But that’s not why I think Miami wins this game; I think they win because they know they must. In any other scenario, Miami loses in Buffalo. However, when you give a scrappy team a play-in game, they’re more likely than not to accomplish what they need to accomplish. Although, this game is anything but guaranteed, and it will ultimately come down to Adam Gase and his ability to coach an NFL club. This game will define his time in Miami as a play-caller, a motivator, and a strategist. All things considered, and as unbiased as I can humanly remain, I believe that the 2018 Miami Dolphins are likely to enter Week 17 as the AFC’s 6th seed favorites. Anything beyond that is up to Gase and his team. Win, and you’re in—lose, and you’re done.

    AFC’s projected standings:

    1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
    2. New England Patriots (11-5)
    3. Houston Texans (11-5)
    4. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5-1)
    5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
    6. Miami Dolphins (9-7)
    7. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
    8. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
    9. Denver Broncos (8-8)
    10. Tennessee Titans (8-8)

    • *Miami wins tiebreaker through PCT vs. conference as head-to-head is thrown out, which is defined as “…the winning percentage in games against other tied teams. In situations with more than two tied teams, the record between any two of the tied teams is irrelevant. This means one team could have beaten another and be ranked below them.”

     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2018
  2. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

    1,216
    686
    113
    Feb 4, 2016
    Miami can still win 10 games. That should assure them a playoff spot. If they dont make the playoffs, Gase has to go away. The culture is still not a winning one. No one in the NFL would've been shocked if they lost to the Bill's Sunday... And no one will be shocked if they lose any of their last 4 games! Expectations are rock bottom.
     
    thetylernator likes this.
  3. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

    11,817
    10,321
    113
    Nov 24, 2007
    Rockledge, FL
    While the playoff scenario predictor makes sense to me, it seems to me that Miami has a defensive identity crisis. This past week against the Bills...the week prior against the Colts. We lucked out against the Bills with Clay's drop in the endzone but let's be honest, our defense let both of those teams score TD's on last minute drives spanning the length of the field.

    Our defense is weak. So much so that even if we were to luckily squeak into the playoffs, we're out of the door before the ball is kicked off.
     
  4. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,007
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    That is...highly optimistic
     
  5. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    Agreed. I certainly don't expect them to make any noise in the playoffs, but if Gase and Co. manage to get this team into the playoffs with all of our setbacks and inconsistencies, I'll call it a victory.
     
  6. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    Believe, brother.
     
    Irishman and Redwine4all like this.
  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

    51,930
    63,007
    113
    Apr 24, 2012
    Troy, Virginia
    The team has allowed 1100 more yards than they have gained so far this season. We're lucky not to be 2-10.
     
  8. mlb1399

    mlb1399 Well-Known Member

    3,893
    3,087
    113
    Mar 6, 2010
    I have a hard time seeing anything other than 1-3. That could be residual pessimism based on decades of being a Miami fan.
     
    Redwine4all likes this.
  9. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    When has Miami, under Gase, showed that they can show up in a win-and-in game? Miami has lost pretty much every significant game of that sort that they've played.
     
    Dolphins1372, Redwine4all and Fin-O like this.
  10. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Can people just be fans for the next 4 weeks and not little whining whoa is me babies?

    We'll see.

    Let's go Dolphins
     
  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    I saw on another site that the odds of this scenario playing out is 5%. But regardless of the odds, we need to beat NE, Jax and Buffalo. I always like our chances against Brady at home though- very big gamer this week! Jax and Buffalo are obviously beatable as well.

    Who knows- we could be a playoff team in 2018....the same year most of this forum wanted to fire everyone. If we can squeak past NE things will get exciting in a hurry....
     
  12. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

    4,052
    2,347
    113
    Dec 9, 2007
     
  13. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,325
    1,381
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    I have never seen such a bad 6-6 team in my life. Gase might actually get to hold onto to his job because he gets to play the Jets and Bills twice. Oh yeah, we also got to play the Raiders in a rebuild year.

    We are the 29th ranked defense and offense. This is a far more accurate barometer of the state of our team than our record. The Bills and Jets are trending up. We are trending down.
     
    Redwine4all likes this.
  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

    4,142
    2,339
    113
    Dec 2, 2007
    Well, I've said repeatedly that Buffalo at home was the last winnable game this season -and that was a drop away from being a loss.

    I really, REALLY want to see us beat New England. If Burke has ANY ability to scheme a defensive effort, now is the time. If we pull off that minor miracle, then I'll buy into the hope we can sneak into the playoffs again. I should know better of course, the season ending in the snowy wasteland of Buffalo during a win-and-in scenario would be even more painful than losing four straight to end the season.

    This thread is a tribute to the power of hope though. :)
     
  15. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,360
    20,980
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    I'm curious as to why the writer thinks "the dead-of-winter" in Minnesota will affect Miami's play in a dome where it's around 70 degrees with no wind or other elements?

    I hope the Dolphins win out. I suspect they go 0-4 with possibly a 1-3 finish to the season.
     
  16. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    I was wondering the same thing, Dan.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  17. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,360
    20,980
    113
    Sep 4, 2014

    They are actually the 25th ranked offense and 20th ranked defense.

    Still nowhere near good enough, but still....
     
    Irishman and KeyFin like this.
  18. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

    11,375
    11,392
    113
    Sep 28, 2015
    I didn't get the memo that being honest about your teams shortcomings, disqualified someone as a fan.

    Guess I have to pack up my office and leave.
     
    Irishman, KeyFin, Redwine4all and 2 others like this.
  19. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,650
    67,543
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I’m in, we just got to beat the Pats first, otherwise the other weeks won’t matter.
     
  20. mor911

    mor911 pooping

    6,150
    4,013
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    Austin, TX
    I'm assuming we go 1-3 in the next 4 games. Wouldn't be surprised if we lose every game.
     
  21. muskrat21

    muskrat21 Well-Known Member

    1,407
    874
    113
    May 11, 2014
    favorite? every media outlet has them with a 5% chance or worse to get the last spot meanwhile every other team is in double digits.
     
    KeyFin and Redwine4all like this.
  22. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    fivethirtyeight has us at 7% while NY Times has us at 10%:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-picture.html

    What's really interesting is how different those probabilities are because theoretically everyone should calculate the same number.

    fivethirtyeight uses the Elo rating system (same as used in chess) which estimates probability of winning based on whatever the teams' current Elo ratings are, but contains an arbitrary parameter that determines how much to change Elo rating after any win/loss. In other words, there's an arbitrariness you can't really remove from this approach.

    NY Times is just looking through all possible outcomes with some fixed probability of winning model (or possibly none at all) and just stating the percent of times the team made the playoffs.

    Not sure which is better, and historical probabilities don't help either because historically a 6-6 team makes the playoffs 29% of the time, but most of that is NOT due to cases where you have 4 different 6-6 teams trying to beat out a 7-5 team for that last playoff spot lol.
     
    Irishman and danmarino like this.
  23. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    My bad. Edited that part out.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  24. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,360
    20,980
    113
    Sep 4, 2014

    Are you the author?
     
    KeyFin likes this.
  25. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

    596
    724
    93
    Dec 31, 2014
    :yes:
     
    danmarino likes this.
  26. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,360
    20,980
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    lol...It is a great article...I was just pointing out the weather thing. Good job...
     
  27. ExplosionsInDaSky

    ExplosionsInDaSky Well-Known Member

    3,163
    2,325
    113
    Sep 13, 2011
    That's what i'm saying! We got four weeks of Miami Dolphin football left and then an entire offseason to fix things, talk about things, go through free agency, draft, get hyped and do it all over again in August. I'm focused on Sunday against New England. We can win that game, and if we can win that game we can win another. One week at a time.
     
    mbsinmisc, Finatik and Irishman like this.
  28. GARDENHEAD

    GARDENHEAD Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    11,681
    10,413
    113
    May 7, 2008
    New Orleans
    8-8 for life!!!
     
    bigballa2102 and Redwine4all like this.
  29. Galant

    Galant Love - Unity - Sacrifice - Eternity

    19,127
    11,058
    113
    Apr 22, 2014
    The fact some are confident we can beat the Pats at home gives me the feeling we're going to get pounded on Sunday. We've been very inconsistent this year, with little rhythm. The Patriots are a model of consistency.

    I've a feeling I might need to be in a bunker this Sunday.

    It's more likely, IMO, that we win in Minnesota - although that's not saying much.

    As for Buffalo, I believer we can win that one, and I hope that we do.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  30. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

    1,216
    686
    113
    Feb 4, 2016
    Exactly. I love how the exalted among us feel entitled to lecture us on "just being a fan"...roflmao...dips are dumb af.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    We all knew that clip word for word....yet I guarantee you almost all of us clicked on it anyway. Never gets old.
     
    thetylernator, Dorfdad and resnor like this.
  32. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    The Pats are an average football team on the road (3-3) and we've beat them 5 out of the last 6 in Miami. We're also 5-1 at home this year and Tannehill is having a better season than Brady (statistically, that is). As "fans" we expect Miami to get blown out while hoping they win, but on paper this game isn't nearly as lopsided as everyone believes.

    I'm not saying we'll win this....heck, I'm not expecting it. But we will play them tough, Howard will continue his pick-spree and the Pats shouldn't have refs handing them TD's like in our first BS match-up. I think we have just as much chance of winning at home as we did against anyone else...we'll see what happens. Go Fins!

    And if we do squeak this one out somehow to get on that 2-game win streak, who knows? Jax and Buffalo aren't scary if we get our act together. Minne is a challenge but like Dan said, at least it's in a dome. Buffalo is the only freezing environment game and that plays to our favor as well.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2018
    danmarino, Irishman and resnor like this.
  33. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Our entire first season I guess. Year two was a throwaway from the start honestly. So this is the only year you can say we dont win games we need to, if we dont.
     
  34. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    We've dropped 3 very winnable games this season BUT it was also with a revolving door on offense with new players each week. I mean, just in the past month alone we've signed two people off the street that saw the field game-day...that's not the norm. We've also activated almost half our practice squad just to fill out a roster some weeks.

    As much as we don't want to admit it, we would have called this year a "throwaway season" if we didn't just do that last year. That's why I'm not being too overly critical of Gase or RT at this point.
     
    Puka-head, resnor and Irishman like this.
  35. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

    573
    532
    93
    Oct 16, 2017
    High Point, NC
    Sounds like wishful thinking on your part.
     
  36. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

    16,329
    9,874
    113
    Nov 25, 2007
    New Hampshire
    We got destroyed in the playoff game. We generally get beat badly in important games.

    This year alone...we NEEDED to beat the Pats...and we got annihilated.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  37. TheHighExhaulted

    TheHighExhaulted Well-Known Member

    5,820
    4,665
    113
    Jan 15, 2008
    Beat the Patriots at home after they got shellacked by Detroit. They don't lose at home to begin with.

    There was no way in any universe that the Dolphins were going to win that game.

    They didn't need that game. They needed the Cincinnati game afterward.
     
    mbsinmisc and thetylernator like this.
  38. AGuyNamedAlex

    AGuyNamedAlex Well-Known Member

    3,582
    2,579
    113
    Sep 12, 2015
    Its fine if you want to classify that season poorly but I cant personally.

    Regardless of that game we won games we needed to in the regular season to make it there.

    If we lost any regular season games we by definition didn't HAVE to win them and as far as I was concerned we are speaking regular season.

    Also at 3-0 I dont think we HAD to beat NE in their house. Im way more upset about the Lions game in our house.
     
    Puka-head likes this.
  39. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

    40,533
    33,035
    113
    Dec 11, 2007
    I expect Miami to win the next two games only to break my heart my losing the last two.
     
    Puka-head likes this.

Share This Page