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Thoughts on the Dolphins/Jets Game

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Sep 16, 2018.

  1. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    You're right its way too early for any celebrating. I will be happy now if I dont have to hear the press say how were such a bad football team any more. Lazy reporting.
     
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  2. The_Dark_Knight

    The_Dark_Knight Defender of the Truth

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    The press has been anti Miami for years.

    If we beat Oakland
    If we beat New England

    They will cover what fell apart for them rather than sing praises of us...and I’m ok with that. Gives the team motivation
     
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  3. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Something I never take into account - fan analysis.
     
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  4. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Over the past few seasons, we've started slow and then found ourselves looking back and saying, "Damn, if we only beat that crappy team back in week 2..." Wins are wins, regardless of how good or bad you look. As Gase said yesterday, nobody in the building is acting like they've accomplished anything- they're moving ahead with the attitude that they have to get a lot better quickly.

    I don't think anyone here is blind to our offense struggling, but I'll take 2-0 over 0-2 any day of the week. Wins are hard to come by in the NFL and those two games will mean definitely something a few months from now...regardless of how we got the W's.

    One thing I want to drive home though- the defense and special teams has looked freaking awesome! There was nothing "gimmie" about the past two weeks...we definitely earned both wins by smacking offenses in the mouth and asking, "Who's your daddy?!?"

    Make no mistake- the 2018 Fins are dominant!
     
    Last edited: Sep 18, 2018
  5. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    I realize RT is just taking what the defense is giving us. For example, Gase said they were rolling coverage to Gisicki, but I am looking forward to seeing Gesicki get more involved. I want to see him get reps because that builds trust between him and RT.

    Our offense is a work in progress, is there something you would like to see emerge?
     
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  6. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    No credit for beating the Raiders, but a win over the Pats.... won't change anything for most sports media. It will be about the Pats not getting into a groove yet, but no doubt they'll turn it around as the season goes on.

    Miami is still trying to find a rhythm on offense, so there is plenty of room to improve for this team too.
     
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  7. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Deep passes to Grant....he's easily my favorite player this season and teams are terrified of the little guy. The more he catches deep, the more safeties have to cheat over to his side while we work the short stuff. I'm excited to see Gisecki as well though; I think he will be a huge mis-match weapon and I'm guessing that we're saving him for NE.

    And finally, I'm dying for the Wilson deep ball to Tannehill. Call me a stupid nerd, I don't care....the bomb to RT is coming!
     
  8. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Nice! I would love it! On a side note, there is so much to like and learn from a guy like Grant. I am with you, he is one of my favorites!!
     
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  9. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    If we're in playoff contention and beat NE late in the season - now that would mean something. They don't even have Edelman back yet and they're going to be breaking in Gordon/Michel. They'll be a different team around that time.

    Hopefully so will we, particularly on offense.
     
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  10. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Kinda. Since the TE position signifies an offense's, and sometimes passing, strength, you'll often see secondaries rotate to match accordingly.
     
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  11. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Naw, credit for every win...no matter how good or bad that team might be. Wins are the only thing that matters and every single one of them is a very big deal. I think we'll stomp the Raiders but still, we can't take that for granted or act like it's a gimmie.
     
  12. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely. At the end of the day, and I don't care how it comes, the only thing that really matters is another tally mark in the win column.
     
  13. Redwine4all

    Redwine4all Well-Known Member

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    Interesting. Posting that here.
     
  14. Rock Sexton

    Rock Sexton Anti-Homer

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    I used to be like that that is until witnessing inflated win totals end in them being dismantled by playoff teams or December swoons.
     
  15. Kud_II

    Kud_II Realist Division

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    Respectfully disagree. Based on his play so far Darnolda future is middle of pack. Tannehill 2 years ago consistency will be his ceiling. But hell that's better then the Jets have had at QB. So it could be about as troublesome as Pennington.
     
  16. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Ah, so be it. You gain confidence and team momentum with regular wins and invaluable experience in the playoffs whether win or lose. It's extremely difficult to progress in the postseason without any previous knowledge or understanding of the type of environment it beholds, along with the elevated play of teams that occurs as well.
     
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  17. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Is that true though? I mean, how much of an advantage is having playoff experience? We hear the commentators talk about it every year and I've always questioned it. While it is a big game with instant elimination, at the same time it's just another game. So I've always wondered if the experience really matters or not.
     
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  18. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Certainly not the end all be all for team evaluation, but it does matter to some extent. Here's a quick quip about the value of playoff experience from Sean McVay.



    And . . .


    Drew Brees has a dozen playoff starts.

    That's not lost on his New Orleans Saints teammates, even those who are making their first foray into the NFL postseason. They understand the value of experience in these do-or-die games.

    "It's huge to have a guy like Drew Brees at the helm, who understands every situation," defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins said after Sunday's first-round victory over Carolina. "He's never going to put our defense in a bad position. He's never going to put this team in a bad position. He's always going to give us a chance to win. That's all you can ask for."

    A big theme heading into the four divisional games is the wealth of experience at quarterback versus the lack thereof. In every game, there's a seasoned passer on one side and a relative newcomer on the other.
    . . .

    Experience counts, something that was evident in the Falcons' first-round victory at Los Angeles. That game pitted a team that was fresh off a Super Bowl experience – albeit a historic second-half collapse – and a club that had not played in the postseason since 2004. Rams quarterback Jared Goff was not at the top of his game.

    "It's super fast. Everyone's into it," noted Jacksonville linebacker Dante Fowler Jr. of the playoff intensity. "The way you study, the way you scheme, it's all different. It's just a different tempo, very fast."

    http://www.latimes.com/sports/nfl/la-sp-nfl-playoffs-farmer-20180108-story.html
     
  19. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Looks like it's a myth that playoff experience matters for QB's.

    Here's a quick plot for 12 QB's that had a decent amount of playoff experience: Brady, Brees, Elway, Favre, Flacco, Kelly, Manning (Peyton), Marino, Montana, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Young. All passer ratings are adjusted for era, and the x-axis is game number with 10 passing attempts as a minimum requirement (you need that for guys like Young). As you can see, the only thing that changes is the variance due to small sample size. The mean doesn't change with experience.
    [​IMG]

    Now, of course there will be some QB's where experience did matter. Best example among those 12 seems to be Flacco:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00/gamelog/post/

    But in general it's a myth.
     
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  20. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    Riiiiight . . . LOL

    Such a narrow view of reality. It's a team game. Coaching and team experience is a factor and you can't measure the human element in this.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Umm.. dude if it doesn't show up in the performance data it doesn't matter what your experience is or what you believe, it's simply not true. The hypothesis KeyFin described is testable, and it turns out the data show that playoff games experience doesn't improve QB performance in the next playoff game.

    You know.. coaches and players in basketball generally believed in the "hot hand fallacy", the idea that "streaks" are real. Turns out that except for some exceptional cases that was false. Humans are fallible, and when you can test a hypothesis you go with the evidence.
     
  22. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    So you believe that the data shows that a QB with no playoff experience is just as likely to play well in a playoff game as a QB who has significant playoff experience?
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    No. What the data shows is that among QB's who had a decent amount of playoff experience there was no significant improvement in their playoff performance as a function of playoff experience.

    The reason the data doesn't show what you asked is because I didn't include QB's who only played a very small number of playoff games. Why? Because the question was about the effect of playoff experience, not whether QB's that for whatever reason only made the playoffs a few times are on average worse than those that made it many times. That's a separate question and is actually interesting in its own right. I wouldn't be surprised if QB's that made the playoffs only a few times were on average worse, but I don't know without looking at the data.
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I think what Carmen is saying is that it's not limited to quarterbacks- it's the experience of coaches, defenders, RB's, WR's, kickers, etc.
     
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  25. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    As for me, I would be happy if the Fins would even get back to the level they were at in the late 90s or early 2000s, when we were a team who could be counted on to always beat the teams they should beat. Yeah, we were perpetually just slightly above mediocre, but that's a damn sight better than we've been for most of the last 15 years. Just beat the teams that are beatable, do what you're supposed to do and don't lose concentration and sometimes, some seasons, you'll get lucky and make the playoffs.
     
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  26. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    Well, I'd like a damn sight more than that but it would be a major improvement over where we are now.
     
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  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    What I'm saying is it's actually not true for QB's (or for a QB-led offense), nor is it true for however the rest of the team helps improve a QB's passer rating (including the coach's influence on passer rating). And the reason I looked at QB's is because I can't filter by coach or by any other player that easily, so I can only make the argument for QB's right now. However.. if it's not true for QB's, it's probably not true for most other players either.
     
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  28. Tin Indian

    Tin Indian Rockin' The Bottom End Club Member

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    The First step towards that is beating Oakland THIS week. We should win that game just about everything is in our favor, West Coast team coming East, the heat this time of year at a 1pm start, our defense is playing far better than I expected and the offense has an abundance of speed. The only two areas of concern to me are Linebacker - young and inexperienced and Tannehill is still knocking off the rust. This game has me more nervous than the first two because it seems more is on the line somehow.
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's the problem when everything seems in your favor- it's easy to overlook the Raiders and get ready for the Pats. Nothing Gase or Tannehill said makes me think they're doing that though, so hopefully we execute and get the semi-easy win.
     
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  30. Rick 1966

    Rick 1966 Professional Hipshooter

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    I hope no one on this team is stupid enough to overlook the Raiders.
     
  31. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    How much of that is a function of elite or top tier QBs often being on good teams, so when looking at playoff stats, you're more often than not looking at top tier QBs? I wouldn't expect to see a ton of variation there. However, despite what the stats week to be showing, I'd be very surprised if it's actually the case that more experienced playoff QBs aren't playing at a different level, or I guess you could say are shouldering more of the load, than a QB with no experience, learning to play in an incredibly stressful situation.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2018
  32. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah, not clear how much of that is due to just looking at better QB's (that list is a list of pretty good QB's as you note). However, a learning effect should still show up and it doesn't. Oh, and other than the selection of QB's, keep in mind there's another confound here: Game 1 is not necessarily the rookie year for that QB. It's just playoff game 1.
     
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  33. resnor

    resnor Derp Sherpa

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    I meant to say QBs with little or no playoff experience, wasn't talking about a rookie QB.
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Well.. let's just look at the data instead of talking about this being a confound lol. So this time I chose 10 QB's who had anywhere from 3-7 playoff games, and most weren't rookies when they had their first playoff game: Vick, Collins, Foles, Sanchez, Smith, Luck, Kaepernick, Palmer, Stafford, Dalton.
    [​IMG]

    Last 2 data points (game numbers 6 and 7) have almost no data so I'd discount that. Otherwise, there's either no difference or if anything a slight decrease with experience (I'm going with no difference for now.. who knows what it's like with 5x the number of QB's). So the story is basically the same: whatever influences passer rating isn't improving average adjusted passer rating with greater playoff experience.
     
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  35. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    So I went ahead and looked at coaches' winning percentage in the playoffs as a function of how many years that coach went to the playoffs. Couldn't do this game-by-game because pro-football-reference doesn't make that easy formatting wise. Still.. it gives you an idea doing it year-by-year. I did this for 15 coaches: Shula, Belichick, Landry, Schottenheimer, Noll, Reeves, Knox, Reid, Fisher, Parcells, Coughlin, Shanahan, Holmgren, Gibbs and Cowher.

    Same story basically. Even coaches don't (statistically) get better in the playoffs with more playoff experience.

    You can infer the playoff record from the y-axis. If they won 100% they won the SB, if it was 75% they were a Wild Card that lost the SB, won 66.7% they were not a Wild Card and lost the SB, etc...
    [​IMG]
     

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