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How much of a Diva was Landry?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by PlayinHarder, Jun 6, 2018.

  1. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I already told you the qb play, the fact that Travis kelce and tyreek Hill were out there for dcs to have to deal with and the scheme.

    And that’s seperate from in Miami juice was the primary sticks concept option. A 2 way go slot primarily. So that’s gonna effect ypc.

    In kc I’d bet it was Travis kelce the primary sticks concept option.

    What I don’t understand and never will is why what Landry did in 2016 with a competent qb and play caller is not sustainable for the long haul in terms of ypc. Answer me that one? That was 12 plus yards per clip.

    Cause with cutler the play action intermediate chunk plays that juice had with tanny were off the table (ypc drivers) as was timing routes (not necessarily with regards to the slot mind you) and the ball placement stunk up the joint.

    And that’s when he wasn’t throwing back foot one hoppers or balls guys had to practically stop on to catch. Shoe lace level.

    So when people drop numbers in a vacuum there needs to be some context taken. Apply to what you are seeing on tape.

    I don’t care if juice was catching balls at a 46 percent clip within 3 yards of the los the way cutler was leaving plays on the field on a gamely basis I’d design ways also to get the ball in my best racs option with the shortest air distance on the ball as possible.

    Reference 2017 all you want to that tape due to qb play primarily should be burned in a barrel.

    Ajayi is there dcs totally focus on stopping him with 8 in the box qb can’t make them pay Ajayi gets frustrated running into walls starts bouncing things instead of taking what’s there.

    Ajayi leaves we go drake and spread teams creating natural running lanes drake eats and we call ball out of hand quick throws be it shotgun or 3 step to force the qb to stand in same root problem remains. The qb play from the post snap execution aspect is sub standard. When you go to the quick spread you out game outside of timing with ball out of hand and correct pre to post snap reads ball placement and accuracy is the most critical aspect of qb play. Without it your goose is cooked.

    We played 2017 with a qb who mentally thought he still had that 40 yard flat rope fast ball that offset his awful mechanics and allowed him to make $100 mil plus as a nfl qb. Except we got the washed up version with the same mindset.

    Don’t believe me ask Adam gase what the most important addition this offseason would be. “Getting our qb back”

    Cause he knew that the qb play was awful and boxed him in as a play caller. Hard to call plays when the qb has checked out mentally on taking any contact and hard to force a qb to stand in and let vertical routes develop when he’s bailing at the first sign of color and throwing dying quails
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2018
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  2. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You're not getting my point here. I know we schemed for Landry. I know KC didn't do it nearly as much with Wilson, even though it was his bread and butter when they did go to him. And I also know Cutler was terrible. You said yourself that we shouldn't have gone to Landry so often- this year we obviously won't since he's not in the building.

    My question is how could that not make us better this season with a faster version of Landry getting much less attention? You're trying to defend Landry as a victim here despite 107 catches and a 6-10 record. I just can't see the logic.
     
  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    theres a reason why he was banned elsewhere..
     
  4. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    sure I do?
     
  5. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Landry is a good football player. He has great hands. He's passionate, sometimes to a fault, seems to fight for every inch, and wants to win.

    However, he's selfish. Hot tempered. Demanding...not in a good way. And I do think the team will be better off without him.

    Landry is one of those guys that needs to be on a good team. He can start on a good team. He can play well on a good team. He can start and play well on a bad team. But he can't make a bad team good.

    Players making $15mil+ per year typically make the team better. Landry was most likely holding this team back. He was taking the ball out of the hands of better playmakers. Not because he was the only one getting open, but because if he didn't get the ball he threw fits.
     
  6. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure who that was but I can assure you that anytime anyone wants to break down tape to find out what I know relative to what they know I'm all in. be it gifs all 22 or anything else.

    hoops isn't scared.
     
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  7. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I mostly agree. I think that Landry's ideal fit is as the #3 option in the pass game on a really good offense. One that can run the ball well, and has a top end #1 WR and a good TE. Then he can be the check down man, make the touch catches, and move the chains when the other guys are covered. But he thinks that he's a lot more than that, and the Browns are paying him to be, on a team where there seems to be talent, but its mostly unproven and very, very young. It really could blow up in their faces, but regardless, I doubt that Landry is as good there as he could potentially be somewhere else if he were willing to take less money and accept a smaller role.
     
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  8. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    Because he did it with a temporary spike in RAC/Tackle Break effectiveness.

    Primarily, in two games (2016 Week 14 Arizona & Week 15 Jets).

    Primarily, on two plays.

    Here is the first of them:


    And the second:


    Incidentally, Ryan Tannehill was not even throwing the football on one of the above plays.

    Here is a graphical representation of Jarvis Landry's rolling 20-game YAC per catch. You will see very clearly where the two games in question pull the line far upward, and keep it there until those two games roll off the back end. But I've also graphed the data if you were to simply exclude those two games.

    upload_2018-7-17_13-20-57.png

    As you can see, his rolling 20-game YAC was pretty steady at about 5.0 until two things happened: 1) Those two big catches (influencing the data way upward), 2) Smokin' Jay Cutler took over (influencing the data a little bit downward).

    Problem is the two big catches/games in question had a pretty heavy influence on the player's total YPC.

    upload_2018-7-17_13-26-28.png

    In the above data, I've included YPC averages for both the average NFL wide receiver from 2014-2017 (gray line), as well as if I were to ONLY count catches from a player who lined up in the SLOT (yellow line).

    Again you can see how the two games/catches really influenced the data, that he only even managed to get to an AVERAGE (for slot receivers) level for a very brief moment because of those two big games and catches, before he came way down with Jay Cutler and Matt Moore throwing the football.

    Based on the above, I'm not sure we could ever really expect him to SUSTAIN a 12-plus yards per catch average, even if things go perfectly and Ryan Tannehill is always throwing him the ball behind the OL we had in 2016 with a RB running rampant like Jay Ajayi was that year, etc.

    He would have to be used differently, and he would have to show that he COULD be used differently, in order to expect him to sustain that sort of performance.
     
  9. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    If I remember right, Landry had two long catches in that Arizona game- and RT had 4 or 5 TD's off short slant passes. That was simply the perfect match-up with the perfect game-plan.
     
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  10. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Ok so we are gonna say that about Jarvis and admittedly it’s hard to argue with that graphic. But if I was gonna argue it in terms of ypc in other years it would be about the marriage of competent qb and competent play caller. Which was 2016 period.

    But yet jakeem grant had 2 similar plays where he broke tackles off wr screens in 2017 where he broke tackles safeties make id venture to say 90 percent of the time that I’m sure drove his ypc way up considering how many catches he had overall. And grant in no way was a primary sticks concept option either.

    My next question is why is there the assumption that Jarvis can’t play it any other way? The backfield stuff is nice and all and shows versatility as a player but the guy eats up 1 on 1 coverage albeit in the slot. He ate up Malcolm Lewis someone many have held in high standards when Miami has faced the patriots in the past and he’s gotten some one on one looks.

    Hes a different level from Albert Wilson for instance with that part of his game.

    Again I will go back to the Browns are buying into 80 plus catches and 1000 plus yards with the potential for more and 6 tds with that contract. And I see no reason that they shouldn’t.

    Is he more valuable to Cleveland than he was Miami yeah probably cause they haven’t had his type of consistent week in week out production at the position. And he can now take some of the pressure off the oft suspended hard to depend on and pay top 5 money even josh Gordon.
     
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  11. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I think he will do well in Cleveland, but I don't think they are getting what they expect. He isn't going to become a dominant force on their offense. He has never really shown that level of ability, at least not in any sustainable fashion. If I had to guess I suspect his yardage will be shy from what he normally sees in Miami and I suspect his TDs will remain roughly the same, maybe a few more one year, and a few less on another.

    When its all said and done Cleveland will be left with a bad decision of cutting a good player cause he is making great player money, or suffering through an unnecessary cap burden. The fans will turn on him with this salary, it might take 2 years but it will happen. For Landry if the money is worth it, and he doesn't care what the fans think, he might get to laugh all the way to the bank. I don't fault any athlete for making what money he can, while he can.

    I'm just glad Miami didn't pay it.
     
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  12. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    That’s fair but I think it can be said that in say 3 years he will be closer to top 20 than top 5 highest paid wr.

    Cleveland may have already decided that they aren’t gonna be paying josh Gordon top 5 money too.

    Which makes Landry’s contract even more doable.
     
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  13. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Lol you went third person on us..
     
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  14. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    One thing to remember with plays like the ones you highlight is that random distribution is not even distribution. I.e. random data will have peaks and troughs.

    What is important though is that in order to sustain high yac/ypc averages a player needs to produce big plays that skew the numbers in at least 2 or 3 games every season. What the graphics show is that Landry, for all his fire and passion and fighting for every inch hasn’t been able show he can produce games like the Arizona/Jets pair of games consistently.

    As for Jakeem Grant,, he will face the same question - can he produce 2 or 3 big games each and every season. I don’t really see him as a reliable chain mover, I see him as a player who will sometimes generate huge chunk yardage and sometimes get shut out.
     
  15. Unlucky 13

    Unlucky 13 Team Raheem Club Member

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    I think that you're right on Grant. But he's the teams 5th WR, and probably their 7th guy down the ladder in targets this year. That's hardly the same thing as Landry was.
     
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  16. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just did some quick eyeballing of game logs on pro football reference.
    Landry has only produced 2 games in his career with 20+ ypc, other WRs typically produce 2 or 3 20+ ypc games per season.
    If you want to be more generous to Landry because of the volume of catches he makes and bring the cut off for a good statistical game to 15+ ypc he still produces those games much less frequently than other receivers.
     
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  17. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    if they rotate personnel like hockey line changes just with a possession by possession basis being the actual change coupled with that tempo we gonna see some people with a lot of targets.

    I don't see grant breaking into that top 3 but it's possible amendola is a 4th option. we paid albert Wilson like he's a top 3 staple. I sure hope we stop asking Kenny stills to be a primary poa blocker in the screen game. yuck

    in reality wilsons deal may just be more about the cost of doing business at wr in todays market than any locked into the top 3 thing. I just don't buy into he can win consistently vs coverage and run quality routes with guys in his hip. yeah he runs a quality pivot route but just about every 2 way go slot type skill set does. and again that's not iso based to date with Wilson. they aren't clearing out for him to work the middle of the field.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2018
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  18. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    too much to ask for you to spot check Julian edelmans ypc averages? keeping in mind that he probably comes from the best scheme in terms of design and execution in football. also keeping in mind that there's some gronk influence here.

    I ask cause I think in terms of usage when you separate some of the backfield ask Edelman and juice are pretty similar. 2 way go types who can win when iso'd and win consistently.

    the ask is a little different than a say doug Baldwin or a adam theilin.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2018
  19. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's what I was going to say as well- you're comparing a tiny speed guy on a rookie contract to a scrappy receiver making $16M a year. Anyone here would take Landry as our 3rd, 4th or 5th receiver, but he believes he's the best in the league and should be paid the most money of ANY WR.

    The kicker here is that the small rookie has better averages than Landry. He was targeted 22 times total with 15.6 yards per catch and walked away with two TD's. Landry was targeted 161 times for 6.6 yards per catch and 9 TD's....yet 5 of them were designed red zone plays. Landry managed 987 yards- with that many attempts Grant averages 1,481.8 yards and 15 TD's.
     
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  20. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    it's not that simple. if after a couple weeks grant is putting those type of numbers together every dc in football is gonna work to take him away/limit the exposure.

    he's gonna have to really make a leap in his game considering some of the things he has working against him to put that up.
     
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  21. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    10.7 yards per reception, 800 yards, 3 TD's a year is his average.
     
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  22. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Edelman was only lightly used in his first 4 years. In the last 4 years he has gone over 20ypc only once. But his contract is roughly 1/3 of Landry’s.

    Eyeballing the other top paid WRs is that they fairly consistently get games with 6!7,8 or even 10 catches and 20+ ypc every season.
     
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  23. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    yeah but Edelman would have made a lot more money on the market had he let himself hit instead of taking the bird in hand route. assuming health of course

    same for a adam theilen same for a doug Baldwin. and keeping in mind that the market was different then.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2018
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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Edelman has consistently averaged around 6 catches for 70 yards per game. His best YPC was 12.3 in 2010, his second best was 11.3 in 2015 and 2016. He didn't play in 2017 so there's no data there, but he's never been even close to 20 yards per catch.
     
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Absolutely- I completely agree. But you find similar averages with Stills, Parker, Carroo, Drake, etc....they all had better YPC averages. That tells me spreading the ball around more will have a bigger impact than focusing 161 times on a single player.
     
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  26. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    ask dcs what they think about dealing with Edelman and gronk gameplan wise.

    you get a pre injury health wise Edelman back you let amendola walk.
     
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  27. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    what's caroo even doing on this list? the difference is to date dcs haven't been working to take away these guys. well dvp makes em nervous but he hasn't made good on his ceiling. the rest of them I think dcs say "I can live with it"

    now maybe someone steps up to the plate this year. I don't know of any teams that just don't have guys that the oc goes to when it matters. guys they dial up things for. so someone is gonna need to step up or we better do a damn good job of maintaining the sticks and strike that staying ahead of them.

    of course that tempo of play could make all of this a non issue.

    but can anyone really name a successful o that is doing it by and large with scheme and bodies and no true high level go to guy and difference maker? I can't.

    maybe philly. doug Pederson killed it during that super bowl run. Zach ertz is legit though
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2018
  28. Pauly

    Pauly Season Ticket Holder

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    Just to be clear I was looking at ypc per game, not per season
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Aah, gotcha.
     
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  30. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Carroo made 7 catches last season for 69 yards and a 9.9 average. In his rookie year he averaged 9.7 yards on 3 catches. I'm curious if he even makes the team this season BUT his 9.9 beats Landry's 8.8.

    And no, I'm not saying to throw 161 times to Carroo and his horrible 55% catch percentage. I'm just pointing out that everyone else's averages trumps Landry's and it makes sense to spread the ball around.
     
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  31. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Analytics has the whole football world tripping over itself.
     
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  32. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Ehh. Not really. Hoops is my nickname from way back.
     
  33. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    Brandon cooks just got 5 years and $81 million.

    The finesse in the stem and at the top of routes all vertical wr who Xavien Howard locked down.

    3 years might be too long before Landry’s contract is closer to top 20.
     
  34. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I get that
     
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  35. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    Can I just say, that was some excellent discussion these last couple of pages!

    If I may, and I know it's a little off-topic, but I would like to add that I can see why teams prefer to have a dominant WR or two. If the production is there, it probably is easier for the QB/WR to develop chemistry, consistency etc.. Conversely, if you want to spread the ball around like we do this year, it may take longer to develop that QB/WR relationship and our offense could be inconsistent until we do. If we are able to tie it all in together and Tannehill is able to keep his accuracy with the variety of receiver tendencies and physical traits then I can see us being very hard to defend.
    It's easy for me to sit back and look at our players on paper and imagine how dangerous our offense can be, but it's probably going to be a lot harder than I realize when games are live. These defenses are no joke. **** happens fast! Tannehill has only seconds to make the right decision and throw a perfect ball. I want to be hopeful, but I probably need to temper my expectations a little bit.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2018
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  36. Surfs Up 99

    Surfs Up 99 Team Flores & Team Tua

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    CK, I love this chart! I used to work as an admin assistant where one of my responsibilities was to summarize our monthly budget using charts, graphs, etc. My goal was to always present the data in a way where my manager could easily understand what was happening at a glance. I enjoy learning new and better ways to do things. The way you presented the data on your charts is excellent. Makes it easy to see and understand!
     
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  37. Carmen Cygni

    Carmen Cygni Well-Known Member

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    It's important to show your work and/or provide greater detail within in-depth discussions. The majority of people don't understand what they are watching, most often come away with a false analysis/conclusion/evaluation, and in turn they pass that misinformation across the forum, fanbase, etc.
     
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  38. ckparrothead

    ckparrothead Draft Forum Moderator Luxury Box

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    I appreciate that, especially since that is exactly what I was going for. I'm not trying to kill anyone here with a lecture made for stat grads or something. The more intuitive I can make it seem, the better.
     
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  39. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    AN opinion does not require someone to provide others with GIF's to prove themselves. Thats whats great about having an opinion, it is.......an opinion.

    If someone wants to take the time to say it's false, or disagree...the responsibilty should be on that person to show why.
     
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  40. Hoops

    Hoops Well-Known Member

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    it doesn't require it but I think if you want to be taken as credible you should be willing to back up your stance with more than the "if you can't see it" stuff.

    I personally think raf (who by and large i've found to be knowledgeable since I've been here) just overstepped with that spacing thing and instead of just saying as much dug in when pressed)

    at any rate i'm not computer savvy either so gifs aren't my cup of tea in terms of posting them etc but if I have a take and someone questions it I'm prepared to provide examples explaining my stance. until I realize that I'm either wasting my time at some point or that individual proves me wrong. which I don't have a problem with admitting I was wrong should it go that route.

    and by wasting my time I mean that person doesn't know a football from a hand grenade.
     
    Last edited: Jul 18, 2018
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