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Dolphins Mock Draft

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by hitman8, Jan 1, 2018.

  1. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Do you still need good players even at positions that most feel are not "premium positions"? If yes, then it doesnt matter. It actually helps since an all pro guard will make less then say an all pro tackle or wr or CB etc. Sorry to answer a question with a question, hate when people do that to me lol.
     
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  2. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Or we can just draft the best player available or BPA at a position of need...which guard is. Wouldnt it be nice to just be done with the OL for a while for once? Then Tannehill can have a clean pocket
     
  3. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    1: R1P11
    S DERWIN JAMES
    FLORIDA STATE

    2: R2P10
    EDGE OGBONNIA OKORONKWO
    OKLAHOMA

    3: R3P9
    TE MARK ANDREWS
    OKLAHOMA

    4: R4P11
    RB SONY MICHEL
    GEORGIA

    5: R4P29
    CB QUENTON MEEKS
    STANFORD
     
  4. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    Ha, No Worries.

    I hope my post didn't come off as snarky, I meant it as a legitimate question on gauging "Pro Bowl".

    But I agree on your points. If a guard truely is the 11 best player in the draft, then it should be a no brainer. In reality, i have no idea if he is or not.
     
    Boik14 likes this.
  5. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Spending a 1st on the line won't finish the line.
    More than any position, you don't need first round talent on the line. It won; make any difference.
     
  6. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Say what? Teams have won with great lines and bad lines. Teams have won with good WRs and bad WRs, good linebackers and putrid linebackers (2012 Giants come to mind). If you don’t have an all pro QB, and we don’t as of now, then you sure as hell better solidify every position that impacts him...even if a lowly guard is one of them.
     
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  7. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You don't need first round picks to build a good line. The oline more than any position group is the least dependent on draft status.

    You won't reap benefits in terms of wins by getting a great guard in the 1st over an average guard some other way.
     
  8. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    what about TE troy fumagalli at 11 if he's available? smart not fast but great route runner, like Jason Witten?
     
  9. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I never said it was OL or bust. But its an obvious hole and it affected us multiple games this year and last year. Leaving it uncovered again will simply lead to the same problems we have had with physical teams that clog the middle like Baltimore and Carolina who whooped us pretty good this year. For a team that probably hasnt had good guard play since Justin Smiley you seem to dismiss it as a non factor entirely. I dont forsee a ton of late round options that are going to come in and fill the hole early, maybe a guy like Larry Allen Jr later on can do something but do you really want another year of our guards still sucking all bevause you think OL isnt important enough? By the way, Dallas and Tennessee in particular (among other teams) laugh at your philosophy.
     
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  10. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Youre probably looking at Fumagali between 45-70 (mid 2, early 3) unless he blows awsy the combine and finds a way to grow back his 10th finger.
     
  11. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I'm not suggesting we do nothing.

    The original idea that was put forward was to use the 1st pick on a guard. That is all I'm against.

    As far as what Dallas and tennessee do, well....so what?
     
    The Finest likes this.
  12. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    If you’re not going to have a pro bowl caliber QB, and like I said, right now we don’t, Dallas is probably the model to follow. That’s why I brought them up. It made Dak Prescott look like the second coming last year. This year Tyron Smith missed a handful of games and it wasn’t as effective but still very good. Dallas took Zach Martin around the same range a few years ago, I’d say that worked out just fine.
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    The 9-7 Cowboys? The 9-7 Titans? We were better than that when we had our starting QB and nobody at guard.
     
  14. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly, now add a good guard to the mix and your average to at times pretty good qb becomes more palatable as he will have time in the pocket and a run game to lean on. That 9-10 win type team could be 11-12 if we can add a good guard and pass rusher in some combination in the first 2 or 3 rounds this year. Those two positions and TE need to be addressed early and often if we aren’t going after a QB.
     
  15. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    That's not true though.

    Adding one good guard will not improve our win total.
     
  16. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Prove that it’s not true. If you can somehow correlate victories to guard play I will see to it that you get a chief guru badge because in 35 years watching and reading about this game I’ve never once seen anything that can come even close to such a study. It’s literally almost impossible to do because like you said, it’s dependant on the unit. But you still need good players and that’s the part you keep missing.
     
  17. thetylernator

    thetylernator You're as cold as ice, Officer Friendly.

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    This is what I've got for now. However, if Ja'Wuan James is let go, this entire projection is upended.

    1: Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
    Miami hasn't had a quality TE in years, and the value such a talent brings to an offense is sometimes understated. Gase loves do-it-all players, and that's exactly what Hurst is; he's a prolific pass-catcher, blocker, and leader. Comparisons can be drawn to Jason Witten.
    2: Luke Falk, QB, Washington State
    I provided an analysis on Falk a while back, and I still believe he is going to be the best QB of the 2018 class. Ryan Tannehill is, without a doubt, the franchise, but it remains to be seen how his play and his health bounce back after two catastrophic knee injuries. Insurance is needed.
    3: Skai Moore, LB, South Carolina
    Moore brings a unique element to the defense as a LB/S hybrid. What really sticks out to me about this guy are his supreme cover skills, which is important anytime you have a mismatch threat on the offense (i.e. Gronk).
    4: Ade Aruna, DE, Tulane
    A bit of a project, but Miami must improve its pass-rush this offseason. Aruna is something of a tweener with a high skill ceiling and a low, low floor. At best, he's an Ezekiel Ansah-esque player; at worst, he's out of the league in two years. The risk is worth the reward with two fourth-round picks.
    4: Ike Boettger, T, Iowa
    Boettger projects best as a RT, though he has been adequate in pass protection. His run-blocking skills are what set him apart, and if it weren't for an Achilles injury in 2017, he would be an early 2nd round prospect.
    5: Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
    The lead back and a speedster for Washington, Gaskin is a threat on the ground, in the air, and on special teams. A bruising back could also be considered here, but something tells me Jakeem Grant won't be around much longer.
    6: Alec Eberle, C, Florida State
    As a unit, FSU's OL struggled tremendously this season. Eberle is not excluded from this mess. However, he's a prototypical center with enough upside and a high IQ to warrant a late-round selection.
    7: Steve Ishmael, WR, Syracuse
    Ishmael is a possession-type receiver who had a quietly productive season for an otherwise inept Syracuse offense. This is a diamond-in-the-rough type of player.
    7: Will Gleeson, P, Ole Miss
    Gleeson is a unique punter who uses both legs to punt, depending on the situation--his left leg to pin the ball in corners of the field, and his right leg to boom it. Regardless, Haack needs to be pressured this offseason to improve.
     
  18. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I can't prove a negative. The burden of proof would fall on you actually.
     
  19. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    You can’t prove it period, because such a ridiculous hypothesis doesn’t exist that I’ve ever seen. And no, when you keep saying a 1st round guard won’t improve your win total, as you did a few times in this thread then the burden of proof falls on you.
     
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  20. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You're the one that kept saying it would improve our win total.

    Again, it is not possible to prove a negative.
     
  21. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I never said it would improve the win total, I said it was an obvious hole and it might move you from a 9-10 win team to an 11-12 win type team. There’s a difference. I stated a couple of teams, Baltimore and Carolina, specifically had their way with our OGs and that’s going to continue to happen when we face good DT/NT types until we address the issue.
     
  22. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I disagree. If we get one top notch run blocking guard to pair with Tunsil and Pouncey, Drake is going to go off in 2018. Establishing the run early opens us up to the best Tannehill has to offer off of play action and those deep passes.

    To be clear, I don't think we NEED to draft a guard in the 1st round. But if a once in a generation type guard is available and we rate him higher than everyone else on the board, then they'd better take him. It would be crazy not to. On the other hand, I really hope the team is doing what they said today and looking at the best player available regardless. That means they think they're pretty much set at all positions and we're simply building quality depth and challenging starters.

    I don't follow college football though- is there one guard that really stands out from everyone else? Such a player might not even exist.
     
  23. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    WADR, saying we could go from 9-10 win team to a 11-12 win team if we draft a guard in the 1st is absolutely saying it would improve our win total.
     
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  24. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Why is it impossible to do? You just need to look at the win% of a team when it plays with a top notch guard vs. when it plays without that guard. Ideally it's done on a game-by-game basis across many different teams and eras, but with large enough sample size you'll see an effect even if the player is part of a unit.

    Here's a short (and incomplete) stab at the problem. Gil Brandt listed his personal 27 best offensive guards in history:
    http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap3000000816668/blank

    Taking only those guards in the SB era, I looked at the difference in the number of wins of a team in two conditions: 1) the year before vs. the year after the guard was signed (through draft or FA), and 2) the year before vs. the year after the guard was let go (for whatever reason). I didn't do this game-by-game, but instead did it year-by-year with a threshold of minimum 10 games started for both conditions (like I said.. it's just an incomplete stab at the problem).

    Some interesting results:
    1) Up to Larry Allen who is #7 on that list, EVERY single time, the team that signed the guard won more games in their first season with the guard vs. the previous year. The average number of extra wins was +2.6 from the previous season.
    2) For all guards ranked below Larry Allen, the result was mixed but on average the team signing the guard won +0.36 extra games the first year with the guard. If you combine both groups, the average was +1.18 extra wins.
    3) Getting rid of one of those guards on average led to +0.19 more wins the next season lol.

    Anyway.. don't take away too much from this. The total number of samples for condition 1 was only 22 and for condition 1 it was 21 (remember there's that 10 games started requirement). But it is interesting that even a guard can make a difference. Based on this tiny sample, that's however only true if you happen to choose a guard that might be ranked top 7 all time lol.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
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  25. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That is funny...I'm guessing it's a case of trading that guy when he's almost past his prime or when he retires. Linemen are almost always better young due to injuries, arthritis, etc. that catches up with them down the road.
     
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  26. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    At this point in time, with this being the coaches third draft and considering where our O-line is weak, I think it is fair to say NOW IS THE TIME!
     
  27. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    It’s impossible to do because you’re correlating wins to a player who functions as part of a unit. Using a stat like WAR works when ranking individual payers but as a OL you can do your job but if the person next to you doesn’t most people can’t tell whose fault it was and even if they do the play is still a net failure. Additionally, you’re using the players participation as a causation for wins. That doesn’t work.
     
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  28. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Re-read it and get back to me.
     
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  29. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    More than that, how do we know the only change of relevance in those instances is a new guard?
     
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  30. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok.

     
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  31. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Exactly. It says it might move your win total. It doesn’t say it will.
     
  32. JIGGAJOE

    JIGGAJOE Active Member

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    Same conversation this site was having last year. To guard, or not to guard.

    Personally, if you want a guard you trade back. I'm ok with the idea, but not at 11 when there are several players at other needs that probably make a bigger impact. LB/DE being one such spot, maybe even TE.
     
  33. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    lol. Ok. :001_rolleyes:
     
  34. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Several things:
    1) Players' participation affects win probability. That's a known causal relation.
    2) On a given play you might not be able to discern whose fault something was, but as the number of combinations of different players, different plays, etc.. increases, you can begin to tell what the average effect of inserting a given player is. Note that this won't tell you who was at fault on any given play, but it does help answer questions about average effects, like the average increase in win% due to any given player.

    We don't need to know that as long as sufficient variation across all kinds of parameters you're interested in (i.e. any other types of changes you think could have happened) occurs with massive sample size. For example, with sufficient sample size you'll have enough cases where the guard played next to a replacement tackle, etc... Not saying you can remove all confounds, but many will be removed that way and such a data-driven analysis certainly provides a better argument than just an opinion on whether picking an OL high is better or not.

    Remember guys, the types of arguments you're making actually apply to EVERY application of statistics. You don't need statistics if you can control for everything. So arguing one hasn't accounted for everything is really an irrelevant counter-argument. It's only when you can demonstrate one gets misleading results when NOT accounting for something that you have an argument. But that requires proof, and it's usually in the form of more discerning statistical analysis.
     
  35. gilv13

    gilv13 Well-Known Member

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    I can't wait to see how many pages this thread reaches because someone drafted a guard in a crappy draft simulator in January.
     
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  36. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Don't buy it.

    Every year, numerous players are aded to a team. That doesn't change.
     
  37. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When the statistic can’t account for how relevant a player was to winning, then it’s useless in a given argument. Participants can obviously only affect win probability if they’re playing but when they’re playing as part of a given unit accounting for their effect has to be done as such and to my knowledge there’s no stat to measure OL play as a direct correlation to winning or that measures their play as a sum of all parts which is how line play is generally looked at and needs to be looked at.

    It’s a unique position in that respect because the only similarity I can really think of in the 4 major US sports is a penalty kill unit in hockey which is graded out by penalty kill success rate but does so as a unit not as individuals. There is no individual more important then the other in either such circumstance as the success of the unit requires each individual be successful in order for plays to work. Same with an OL. Failure from one lineman to block or at least detain his player can cause a play to fail either by obvious failures (sacks, pressures, turnovers) or less obvious failures (such as gap penetration causing a qb to get rid of the ball faster then he intended). The effect of the failure of one creates a failure of all.

    Additionally you talk about the average effect of a player but the average effect of a player is circumstantial based on some scheme, play calling, personnel groupings, opponents and literally tens of variables. And even the slightest deviation from those viables can throw the effect out of whack and make it inaccurate. It’s literally impossible to measure as of now.
     
  38. Fin-O

    Fin-O Initiated Club Member

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    Someone please tell me what position does correlate to more wins??

    QB??

    Oh wait, Ive heard people (when it is convenient for their ****ty arguments) tell me that position doesn't matter also.

    So if no positions we draft are going to correlate to more wins by some weird false analysis....you may swell start filling holes. We have and have had a huge interior line problem. Why the hell wouldn't you try to fix it? We know our QB must have good surroundings to be be successful (as do most) so it makes sense to build around giving him the best chance to play well.
     
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  39. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Again.. we're talking about wins before and after replacement in the presence of (hypothetically) sufficient variation in all these other potentially important factors such as scheme, play calling etc.. It's precisely when you can tell how much on average a player contributes to winning. Doesn't matter at all that he plays in a "unit" if there's sufficient variation in how that unit is composed in your (very large) sample.

    And just so it's clear, when I said in the past that there's no good OL stat, that doesn't mean you can't theoretically create one (e.g. because it's a "unit" etc..), just that there isn't one currently.
     
  40. hitman8

    hitman8 Well-Known Member

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    If you are the patriots maybe you dont need first round picks on the line, and even they have picked a guard in the first round before when they drafted mankins. That worked out great for them.

    If we were any good at drafting mid to late round olinemen then I would agree with you. But we have probably the worst track record in the league for Drafting mid to late round olinemen.

    Therefore if we really want to sure up the interior oline then our best bet is to address it in the first or second round.
     

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