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What Happens If....

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by KeyFin, Dec 13, 2017.

  1. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    The thing about Ryan Tannehill and Jay Cutler is that they are pretty much the same calibre of quarterback...

    - Tannehill has completed 62.7 pct of his passes, Cutler has completed 62.1
    - Tannehill has a 4.9 TD% and 2.5 INT%, Cutler has a 4.7 TD% and 3.2 INT%
    - Tannehill's QB Rating is 86.5, Cutler's QB Rating is 85.7
    - Tannehill has a win-loss record of 37-40, Cutler has a 74-76 win-loss record
    - Both quarterbacks didn't have a winning season until their fifth year in the league!

    There are more stats which are very similar. So in a sense other than their age, there really isn't that much between these two guys. Obviously I think that Ryan Tannehill is going to be the starting quarterback next season and Jay Cutler might be plying his trade elsewhere, however a strong finish to the season including a play off berth could give the front office food for thought for next season, especially when you consider there is a potential out in Ryan Tannehill's contract in 2018:

    - A pre-6/1 release or trade saves us $15,200,000 against the cap and leaves us with only $4,600,000 in dead money.
    - A post-6/1 release or trade saves us $17,500,000 against the cap and leaves us with $2,300,000 in dead cap space over 2018 and 2019 seasons.

    So when you consider that we project to have only $15,193,874 in cap space in 2018 according to overthecap and need to re-sign Jarvis Landry, and might have a desire to look into other free agents to come in and strengthen our team (e.g. O-Line), there might be an argument to move on from Ryan Tannehill in 2018 if Jay Cutler has a strong finish to this season and wants to play next season. If Cutler is willing to take a similar amount, we could save ourselves $7,500,000 in cap space. We could then use the draft to bring in a quarterback to develop into his successor (e.g. Baker Mayfield is a popular choice among Dolphin fans). I don't think this is a likely scenario, but at the same time I wouldn't be surprised.

    Another thing to think about in all of this is that Ryan Tannehill has only one partial winning season before getting hurt. He's never played in the play offs. He's coming back from a significant injury. So there are question marks next to Ryan Tanehill's name. Now perhaps he's our Joe Flacco or Eli Manning, and if we get to the play offs he'll turn it on and we'll have a Super Bowl run, but there's a pretty big stretch. So while I would not be excited by the prospect of another season with Jay Cutler, I could perhaps understand the logic of using him as a stopgap while we develop another quarterback (e.g. Baker Mayfield) and us the cap saving to strengthen other areas of this team via free agency (e.g. O-Line, LBs).

    Should we carry them both into training camp and let them compete? I don't see why not because we can actually save more money by trading or cutting Ryan Tannehill post-6/1. Let them compete and let the best man win the job. The only issue with this route is if Ryan Tannehill wins the starting competition. At that point would Jay Cutler accept being the backup quarterback? Or would there need to be some sort of agreement in place that we will cut or trade Jay Cutler if he doesn't win the starting job? I suspect Jay Cutler would probably want to go to a team and be their undisputed starting quarterback if he decides to play next season rather than compete for a job and possibly end up riding the bench, though I suppose he could always retire.

    For me, I think the most likely route is we have Ryan Tannehill starting for us next season. However, I would seriously consider drafting a quarterback on day two or three of the draft to develop into a potential successor for him.
     
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  2. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Shhh, DirtyHitRicky. I wasn't talking to you.
     
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  3. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    you have to naive to think we'll just have $15M. We have about $60M in cuts coming. Plus the cap goes up. Asking Cutler to take a paycut? your boy RT should
     
  4. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    You want Cutler and Tannehill in camp? you are all over in this post. You have like 3 diff opinions
     
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That's the thing- there are a lot of scenarios that can play out here and it's a tough choice no matter what. I'd certainly prefer Tannehill as well but we all knows how much Gase loves Cutler- it will be interesting if Jay has a good little stretch here.
     
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  6. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    The first time you and I really interacted on a post, was one where you gave your opinion on Tannehill. Your stance was "Hey I'm a big fan, but..." After you gave a couple hundred reasons why we should part with him, I called into question your assertion that you were a "big fan".

    Do you still consider yourself a big fan of his? I'm curious cause it still doesn't seem like there is any part of your posts that gives him a break and/or the benefit of the doubt.
     
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  7. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

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    I believe he is ahead of brady for this week.
     
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  8. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    Of course that number is likely to rise as we make cuts of under performing veterans and/or have cap casualties, but it currently stands at $15 million. There is no point in me sitting here and saying we can have $60 million in cap space next off season if we cut x, y, and z because that is speculation.

    Actually Jay Cutler wouldn't be taking a pay cut. He would get at least $10 million next season to be our starting quarterback. Could he get more on open market? Perhaps, but Adam Gase seems to get the best out of him and we do have a good group of offensive play makers to make his job easier. If we upgrade our O-Line this off season, Cutler would be hard pressed to find a better place to play out his latter years in the league.

    Should we ask Ryan Tannehill to take a pay cut? I think we should because Tannehill doesn't really have any leverage. If he says no, we can cut or trade him next year pre-1/6 or post-1/6 and only be hit with a small amount of dead cap while making a significant cap saving. Of course that leaves us with a hole at quarterback but Jay Cutler could be that stopgap, and we could also draft someone. So while I think Tannehill will be here next season, it is possible that he is a cap casualty, or takes a pay cut in order to remain a Dolphin.

    3 different opinions?

    I made it quite clear that I think Ryan Tannehill will be our quarterback next season, but a strong finish to this season for Jay Cutler could leave our front office with a decision to make over which quarterback to go with next season. Like I said, I don't expect Cutler to be our guy next year, but it wouldn't surprise me if we did bring him back because Ryan Tannehill is not untouchable.

    Unlike some Dolphins fans I am not going to sit here and pretend that Ryan Tannehill is our franchise quarterback and the successor to Dan Marino. Why? Because he's not that good. Granted he's not that bad either, but Tannehill is what he is at this stage in his career - an average to above average starting quarterback. Who else is in that same tier? Jay Cutler. At the end of the day those guys are not untouchable. If Jay Cutler leads us to the play offs this season and wins a game, that doesn't suddenly make him a top tier quarterback in this league. He will still be an average to above average starting quarterback. That's why I want to see us draft a quarterback early in 2018 to develop and potentially become our next starting quarterback in the future because we still don't have a top tier quarterback, and until we do, we should continue to keep trying to find one and not crown an average to above average starting quarterback as our franchise guy.

    So my opinion on the matter is clear.

    As for having both guys compete in camp, that was a response to a question/thought posed by the original poster. I see no reason why we shouldn't let the two guys compete and let the best man win, or throw Ryan Tannehill and a rookie quarterback into a legitimate quarterback competition. Let them compete and let the best man win. If that's Tannehill, fine; if that's Cutler, fine; and if it's a rookie, fine. This team needs a top tier quarterback to compete for a Super Bowl and currently we don't have one contract to us.
     
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  9. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Based on the last two games, I think its fair to say most of those holes have had significant updates. This has been due to improvements of some of our existing players effectiveness and by getting some better players obtained via FA to help fill holes. I believe we are watching the beginning of a great new era for the Dolphins.
     
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  10. Irishman

    Irishman Well-Known Member

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    Consider this:

    Adam Gase likes using a group of running backs. Wouldn't he like to do the same with two active QB's alternating playing half's. This would make an interesting challenge for teams to prepare for and possibly extend the active lifetimes of both QB's and solve a problem that teams have with 2nd string QB's who can't effectively carry the 1st string QB's load when there is an injury. How much value would there be with the ability to continue playing at the same clip when there is an injury. This could be worth several wins a year.

    Having one QB five years older than the other would also allow for developing a replacement QB from our third string with an actual growth path.
     
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  11. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    I am a fan of his. I believe he should come back at a reduced salary and help transition a new qb
     
  12. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    I can't imagine Cutler wanting to start over w a new system and without Gase just to play another year. I think he'd take a reasonable deal

    Matt Moore doesn't scare me on any team. Always liked him, but the end is coming fast from what I've seen this year. Funny that you worry about Moore on NE after we just smacked around Brady lol
     
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  13. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    The only way he will restructure his deal is if you are giving him more guaranteed money. You might gain cap space this year, but you will have more dead money over the next 2 years. So essentially you are going to still be paying Ryan starter money, well after the rookie takes over.

    You are raving mad if you think he is going to sign a contract that gives him less money now, and gives the organization an easy out the following year.

    Players don't restructure their contracts so teams can afford to go out and replace them.
     
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  14. Deus ex dolphin

    Deus ex dolphin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I was wondering why the Ravens needed to lose a game. I doubt they do. Now, the Titans? I like our odds there. Even the resurgent 9ers should have a shot to beat them and the Rams/Jags will be favored to win.

    Miami has to win three more games though, so this is far from a done deal.

    As for the 2018 season and near future? Seems like there are TWO basic directions. This is assuming the Phins go on to make the playoffs, and get a lower pick in the first round.

    First direction, you trade away Tanny for some extra picks (Browns give up a second and a third for example). You sign Cutler for another two years, for $25 million. Draft a project QB late in the first round, to develop under Cutler. Get a Center and Guard, bring back James at RT. We need a LB, DE and CB too. I'd try and get one more year out of Moore. We need him for a couple games, but the season is lost if Cutler goes down so you start the rookie after hitting 7-8 losses. If it works out, you have young QB to take over for the next decade and a winning team around him.

    This is a WIN now and build for the future scenario.

    Second direction, you part ways with Cutler (who won't stay unless given a starting role I think) and build around Tanny for the next 5-6 years. You keep Moore for another year, but draft a QB in the third or fourth to develop into at least a solid backup. Rebuild the OL as best you can, add to the defense, and hope Tanny makes that leap in the Gase offensive system. If it works out, the Phins are positioned to take over the AFCEast in 2019 when Brady retires/drops off that QB cliff. Hopefully, you get to a Super Bowl or two before Tanny calls it a career.

    This is a WIN now and win for the next five years scenario.
     
  15. invid

    invid Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I'll take the second route all day long. I think we could afford to draft a QB higher if the FO is really convinced on somebody. Worst comes to worst, the dude flashes in preseason and we trade him for picks late during his rookie contract to a team that's needy for one (due to an injury or something else).
     
  16. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    So The Sporting News just came out with their odds for teams to make the playoffs. I'm not sure what their methods are in order to reach these numbers:

    New England Patriots: 100 percent

    Minnesota Vikings: 99.9 percent

    Jacksonville Jaguars: 98.2 percent

    New Orleans Saints: 93.6 percent

    Los Angeles Rams: 89.1 percent

    Carolina Panthers: 78.9 percent

    Tennessee Titans: 76.3 percent

    Los Angeles Chargers: 66.7 percent

    Baltimore Ravens: 65.3 percent

    Seattle Seahawks: 64.7 percent

    Kansas City Chiefs: 61.2 percent

    Atlanta Falcons: 47.7 percent

    Buffalo Bills: 28.9 percent

    Miami Dolphins: 22.2 percent

    Dallas Cowboys: 9.8 percent

    Detroit Lions: 8.7 percent

    Green Bay Packers: 7.5 percent

    Oakland Raiders: 1.1 percent

    Arizona Cardinals: Less than one percent

    Cincinnati Bengals: Less than one percent

    New York Jets: Less than one percent



    http://www.sportingnews.com/nfl/new...ns-seahawks-falcons/riyi25yhag5f1q3npqqccshkf
     
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  17. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    so you're saying there is a chance?
     
  18. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Here's what I see....they have Oakland at 1 percent and they have the tiebreaker on us, so they're obviously looking ahead at the remaining match-ups and projecting wins. So they're really saying we have a 22% chance to win the last 3 AND the other factors to fall in place.

    We just need someone who shouldn't win to step up and beat the Ravens...that's the big hurdle here. Although it's not unthinkable for the Titans losing two- we need San Fran to play lights out this week.
     
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  19. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I hope this continues as we have not had enough of this over the years.
     
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  20. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    grant has 4.25 speed trav
     
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  21. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I think they're using what's technically described as the bull**** method. There's simply no way those numbers are correct if they really mean those are estimated probabilities of making the playoffs from today.

    Just consider.. we have 3 games left. Let's suppose we totally controlled our own destiny and that we didn't need Baltimore or Tennessee to help out. The probability of winning 3 games if you assume each game has a 50% probability of winning gives you 12.5%. If you're being more of a homer and you think we have a 60% chance to win each game, then you get 21.6% probability.

    But that's not even considering the need for Baltimore or Tennessee to lose a single game (or 2 games in the case of Tennessee). So they're using the bull**** method if those numbers (e.g. 22.2% for Miami) truly represent the probability of making the playoffs today. More accurate estimates are between 5% and 9%.
     
  22. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Not sure that happens. Pats signed Hoyer to a 3 year deal a few weeks ago. While I’m sure te guaranteed money isn’t huge or uncuttable, he’s not any different from Moore.
     
  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I think that's exactly what they did....they said something like, "Tenn has about a 80% chance to lose this week, while the Fins have a 70% chance of winning and Oakland has a 90% chance of losing." So it's guess after guess and then worked into a formula that fits their 18 total guesses (six teams vying, 3 games each). There's a formula in there somewhere but I don't think it's based on statistics.
     
  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Moore brings the Dolphins playbook though, and that's something Belichick tries to purchase each season. This past game aside, I can still remember back to when we lost to them last year in Tannehill's epic 2nd half comeback...you could see it on BB's face that he was at his wit's end on how to slow us down. We lost that game but still, I think he respects us a lot more than our own fan-base does.
     
  25. Boik14

    Boik14 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    When teams are great the opponent can still know what’s coming and not stop it. Granted it was a long time ago but the 86 Giants used 6 run plays the entire year. No one stopped it. There’s hundreds of plays in that playbook and with player movement around the league the way it is I’d bet most teams/front offices have a very good idea of what every other team wants to do except for the first year HC’s as the book isn’t out on them.
     
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  26. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I think the more you can make these modern, lightly educated, primmadonnas think, the better chances you have of beating them.
     
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  27. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

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    First of all, let me preface my post on the fact that I have always been on the Cutler train. I think the calls to bench him were mere oversights on the poor offensive line play and play calling.

    Second of all, I will preface my post on the fact that I am on the Ryan Tannehill train. I liked the improvement that we saw at the end of last season, but I am keenly aware that we've had false hope before with Ryan. Do I think that it is entirely possible that he will be rusty after his long layover? Yup.

    My thoughts are this. RT is on his last chance. I think we should absolutely have a plan B in place. My first thought is draft a QB in the second round. I think it is certainly time to move on from Matt Moore. Depending on how we finish and who is available while we are picking, it certainly leaves a lot of variables. I would never advocate taking a QB that is not high on our draft board. So, that certainly leaves a possibility that Jay Cutler could be plan B.

    Now, here is the real problem. It always comes down to the money. Cutler got paid from us because we really did not have better options and desperation seeped into our decision making. I think he is worth $5 mil as our backup. I could see how that would be kind of insulting. I know he likes Gase, but how much does he like Gase? The other thing is, would he be willing to be a backup with the longer term goal of coaching. That would be an optimum plan B. If that was the case, I could see forgoing an early draft pick and having Cutler be plan B.

    We're in a bit of a pickle.

    He's not plan A.
    We can't pay him $10 mil.
    He probably deserves more than what we would be wiling to pay him.
    Does he even want to be a backup?
     
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  28. LI phinfan

    LI phinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Nice post. I personally think Cutler is one and done. Especially with his wife's reaction to his concussion this season. While I do not have quite the concern about RT's health and play going into next season as you do, there has to be a better plan behind him. A name brought up recently by another poster was Josh McCown....kind of like that. Drafting one is another option, but not early in my opinion
     
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  29. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    That was a good post. But I can't help but think- what if we went for Romo instead? Maybe we would have ended up in the same place as we are now, but I've really been impressed with Romo's knowledge in commentary this season.
     
  30. Dolphins1Beatles

    Dolphins1Beatles Ziggy Stardust

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    Figures. The Titans lost, which opened the door. They next play Rams & Jags. 3 wins and Dolphins probably would've been in because I doubt the Titans get to 10-6, and Miami holds the tiebreaker over both them and the Chargers. Phins just aren't good enough anyway. They would've been crushed by the Jaguars.

    I mean, technically the Dolphins will still get in if they finish 8-8 along with SD and TN and Buffalo. SD needs to lose to NYJ or Oakland. Bills will probably lose to the Patriots. Titans need to lose the next 2, which is possible as its LA & JAX. I doubt Miami go to KC and win though, but I guess you never know. Should the Dolphins win the next 2 and there's a giant 8-8 tie, then the Dolphins can lose 41-13 to the Jaguars.
     
  31. The Finest

    The Finest Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    This post did not age well!
     
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  32. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    Indeed. Jay Cutler went back to being, well, Jay Cutler... :thumbdown:

    Though I do stand by my point that Cutler and Tannehill are in the same tier. Likewise I would stand by my point that we need to draft someone to develop into a potential successor, or at least someone that cab push the starter and keep them on their toes.
     
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  33. The Finest

    The Finest Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Same tier as in right now or over their careers?

    I think Ryan tannehill of last year, especially after the Tennessee game, was better than any incarnation of Jay Cutler
     
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  34. Mike8272

    Mike8272 Active Member

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    From a statistical and production stand point there is not a significant difference between Jay Cutler under Adam Gase in Chicago and Ryan Tannehill under Adam Gase. The main difference is in the win column, however in 2015 Chicago did start their rebuild whereas we were trying to start competing a bit more.

    Ryan Tannehill 2016 stats
    • 261 Comp, 389 Att, 67.1 Pct, 2,995 Yards, 7.7 Avg, 19 TD, 12 Int, 93.5 Rating / 39 Rushing Attempts, 164 Rushing Yards, 4.2 Avg, 1 Rushing TD
    • 8-5 Win-Loss Record
    Jay Cutler 2015 Stats under Adam Gase
    • 311 Comp, 483 Att, 64.4 Pct, 3,659 Yards, 7.6 Avg, 21 TD, 11 Int, 92.3 Rating / 38 Rushing Attempts, 201 Rushing Yards, 5.3 Avg, 0 Rushing TDs
    • 6-9 Win-Loss Record
    Now of course if you factor in Jay Cutler's production this season under Adam Gase, his stats are not as good:

    Jay Cutler 2017 Stats under Adam Gase
    • 246 Comp, 389 Att, 63.2 Pct, 2,374 Yards, 6.1 Avg, 18 TD, 14 Int, 80.6 Rating / 17 Rushing Attempts, 33 Rushing Yards, 5.3 Avg, 0 Rushing TDs
    • 6-6 Win-Loss Record
    With that said, an argument can be made that Jay Cutler has not been our main problem this season. We've seen some questionable play calling and game planning on both sides of the ball, but especially on the offensive side which Gase blamed on his players and forced him to simplify the playbook. We've had some inconsistent defensive performances. Essentially as lacklustre as Jay Cutler has been, I don't think it is entirely his fault because he's not received the support and consistency from other areas of this team from top to bottom.

    Now I will admit that Ryan Tannehill made progress last season and did start to look more like the leader on the field that we need as a team, and perhaps our win count would be better this season, but with all our struggles this season would Tannehill have been able to overcome them or would he too have succumbed to them? I suspect it would be the latter because he's not a borderline elite quarterback, and he's certainly not an elite one. As far as I'm concerned Tannehill is what I would class as an above average to good starting quarterback, and for most of his career Jay Cutler has generally been an above average to good starting quarterback. To win with that calibre of quarterback you need a team that plays really good defense and has a strong running game (e.g. the 2012 Baltimore Ravens with Joe Flacco). So if we are going to win with Tannehill as our quarterback we are going to need to have a significantly better and more consistent defense, and to support him on the offensive side we are going to need a dangerous running game because I am not convinced that Tannehill is a 4,500 to 5,000 yard passer.

    Who would I rather have as our quarterback? Ryan Tannehill. But as much as I like him (I have two jerseys with his name on), I am willing to admit that his position as our quarterback is not untouchable, and as such if the opportunity arises to upgrade our quarterback position then we should take it and not be sentimental.
     
  35. The Finest

    The Finest Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    I agree that over the course of their careers, they're similar in ability, which is the point I believe you're making. This isn't cutler of 2015 and his 6-6 record this year is largely fraudulent. This team is very fortunate to have won 6 games with the 2017 version of jay cutler.

    We can debate whether the six game stretch RT17 showed us last year was for real, but if it was and he was healthy, this year would look very different. Jay ajayi might even still be the starting RB here lol. The effect that tannehill would have on the offense as opposed to cutler/Moore is unquantifiable
     
  36. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    I think Romo wisely knew he had the commentating career waiting and his body was def forcing him to make that move quicker than he wanted.

    He's no dummy and I doubt anyone could of lured him out of retiring.
     
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  37. slickj101

    slickj101 Is Water

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    Tannehill has much more of a variety of skills and still has room for improvement though. He's already passed Cutler imo.

    Def agree w everything else though.
     
  38. Phins_to_Win

    Phins_to_Win Well-Known Member

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    I'm a big Tannehill guy, but I still think if you get a chance at someone that might be special at QB, you pull that trigger. However, while we have Tannehill, I wouldn't sell out in the draft to move up. We have too many holes to lose out on good draft choices, and we are finally starting to draft well. I agree though nobody's position should be untouchable in an organization that is struggling to keep its head above .500.

    For me the win win scenario is you build a great team around Tannehill, and see how he plays, if he is still not getting the job done. Then you can either coax a FA QB to come play for a great team, or you sell out in a draft when you don't have a lot of holes and bring a rookie QB into a great position to start growing.
     
  39. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    I just don't understand how ANY rookie QB this year has more potential to be a Top 10 QB than Thill showed last year.
     
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  40. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    Aug 2, 2015
    last year - before injury. enough said. you bring in competition, and if he's good he will win
     

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