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Carolina Panthers

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Nov 6, 2017.

  1. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    According to the Miami Herald, Ross decided on keeping Philbin for 2015 well before the Vikings game, and even if the result was a loss to the Vikings:
    http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article4769349.html
     
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  2. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Not buying it. Seems like a PR piece. It was a bad look to guarantee bringing him back after a fluke play.
     
  3. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Of course you're not buying it.... lol
     
  4. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    why are we talking about philbin hes gone can we talk about cam and the 9.5 point spread?
     
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  5. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    This site has archived lines, odds and spreads for all NFL games this season:
    https://thefootballlines.com/nfl/week-1/point-spreads

    Based on closing spreads Vegas has been HIGHLY inaccurate for exactly half of all Dolphins' games, specifically our 20-6 loss to the Jets, 20-0 loss to the Saints, 20-17 win against the Falcons, and the 40-0 loss to the Ravens. The average discrepancy between Vegas' predicted spread and the actual result in those 4 games is an astonishing 22.4 points!

    So first of all, in 4 of our 8 games Vegas was totally wrong about the spread. Secondly, Vegas has predicted a spread of 6 or greater only ONCE so far in our 8 games: a +14 spread against the Falcons (so they predicted we'd lose by 14), a game we won by 3! So the only time Vegas predicted we'd lose by 6 or more, we won.

    In summary: Vegas hasn't been that good so far with the Dolphins this year when it comes to actual or predicted blowouts.
     
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  6. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    well I don't think any dolphins fans seen a 40-0 blowout or losing to the jets or the jets beating buffalo, that is a sucker bet to me I would take Miami in the 9.5. but usually vegas is accurate favs only ever cover like 46% of the time while dogs cover over 50.
     
  7. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yeah I definitely have respect for Vegas. Anyone who thinks they can do better has to first prove that. But regarding the +9.5 spread, look at this graph of the difference between actual and predicted spread (1494 games from 2010):

    [​IMG]

    Turns out 58.8% of all games are within 10 points of the closing line. That means that statistically speaking there's about a 41% chance our game will end EITHER in a Dolphins win or in a huge blowout win (19+ spread) by Carolina.

    When one puts it that way I'll take those odds haha!
     
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  8. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    I always take anyone in the nfl +10 or more except the pats they seem to cover -10+ a lot and it angers me.
     
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  9. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Looks like that's not a bad strategy based on this graph:
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Walter

    Walter Well-Known Member

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    LOL

    I first saw this and thought it was what offensive players saw after being hit by Reshad and soon to be T J Mac.
     
  11. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    Yeah, the most common margin of victory is 3 points. The next common is 7 and then 10 and next is 14. Makes since with the way scoring works in the NFL. However, nearly 57% of all NFL games since 2002 had a margin of victory of 10 or less. Like bigballa, I will typically take anyone and 10+ points.
     
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  12. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    I think we don't do well with running QB's.
     
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  13. Dol-Fan Dupree

    Dol-Fan Dupree Tank? Who is Tank? I am Guy Incognito.

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    I think we will do better now that Miami has more than one decent linebacker.
     
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  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    Yup, mostly correct. Here are the actual percentages from 2002-2012:
    http://www.bettingtalk.com/nfl-margin-victory-often-teams-win-3-key-numbers/

    (margin of victory, # of games, percent)
    1 101 3.52%
    2 102 3.55%
    3 435 15.15%
    4 148 5.15%
    5 83 2.89%
    6 160 5.57%
    7 277 9.64%
    8 93 3.24%
    9 39 1.36%
    10 174 6.06%
    11 67 2.33%
    12 42 1.46%
    13 90 3.13%
    14 138 4.81%
    15+ 923 32.14%

    So most common is 3, then 7, then 10, then 6, then 4 and then 14.
     
  15. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Why are you so obsessed with me?
     
  16. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    It might be those really cool ear muffs.
     
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  17. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    Since we beat the Falcons and the Panthers beat the Falcons that means we should tie.
     
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  18. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    A Reshad-shak test...
     
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  19. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    This is bull****! The vast majority of fans have a bleaker outlook on the rest of the season than Bill Paxton in "Aliens"...we're four and ****ing four for phucks sake!

    Does a Panda have to bust out a midseason hype video to bring you *****es outta your collective funk!?!
     
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  20. CanGasePlaybook

    CanGasePlaybook Active Member

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    About to be 4-5.....
     
  21. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    I don't know if I am alone ... but honestly I feel the lack of a bye killed us before the season began, let alone losing Tannehill (and I am not a Tanny guy). Playing 16+ games in a row is crazy and I think the team will get worn down mentally and physically. Plus I think we are the most traveled by distance team in the league this year. I really just wanted to see if the team could progress, make a good show, etc.
     
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  22. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    At least it will be with guns blazing!!!
     
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  23. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    You tell 'em fellow math nerd! =)
     
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  24. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    I've noticed a lot of the usual suspects have stopped posting since we've lost a few games, then a whole slew of naysayers have showed up to tell us how bad the Fins stink. Then once we win a few, the crowds switch back again...it's kinda silly. I've never understood stuff like that...I'm going to cheer for us whether we're 15-1 or 1-15.

    For instance, DJ started multiple threads a few weeks ago how we have to show out for the games and cheer on our team. Now that they're playing in his hometown this week, he's nowhere to be found.
     
  25. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    You're right about a lot of them....but not DJ. That is not his MO at all. He's a good one an a 100% sincere and is not afraid at all to take a stance and back it up or eat the crow.
     
  26. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I didn't mean that he was one of those people...we just lose a lot of year-round regulars when the season starts looking gloomy.
     
  27. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

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    Ok, but ftr, he's still here and posting daily.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2017
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  28. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    That's the spirit guys!! Wooo!
     
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  29. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    Wtf..

    Where do you think my hometown is?
    I started threads because we had a chance to support our team at the apex of the season...they didn’t respond..team failed..
     
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  30. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    I try to avoid this site because I have a stalker but chime in when something interesting happens, like my favorite player leaving or finding out we had a cokehead for a coach.
     
  31. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

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    My bad, I thought you mentioned that you were in Charlotte.

    We're 4 and 4 though- we're still at that apex and one game ahead of last season. It's way too early to say 2017 is a failure.
     
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  32. Finatik

    Finatik Season Ticket Holder Staff Member Club Member

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    And I think something like 1 game out of the WC right now. All is not lost. When we beat the Panthers people will call it luck. Seems like our wins are only luck and our losses are because were so bad. People are bi-polar when it comes to the dolphins.
     
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  33. rackhound

    rackhound Well-Known Member

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    If they win this week they are right back in it......And if they don't they still have a shot however long, and ill still be pulling for them and hoping for the best. They looked decent Sunday and Im hoping for more of that. If they beat the Patriots Ill be happy no matter what the record.....:chuckle:
     
  34. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    At this point im hoping for a win over the pats the playoffs is really a long shot
     
  35. bigballa2102

    bigballa2102 Well-Known Member

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    its because when we win we don't really look "good" like a winning team clicking all the time. You cant lose by 40 and then win and expect anyone to say we are a "winning club" and go 8-8 and hope for a wild card.
     
  36. Pandarilla

    Pandarilla Purist Emeritus

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    Chris Chambers?
     
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  37. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Not a WR but a QB
     
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