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Gotta Toot My Horn

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Nov 3, 2017.

  1. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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  2. Walter

    Walter Well-Known Member

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  3. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    its starts with route running to create space.. Jay was not good at it...stiff in the upper body, upright style, not conducive to gaining separation against NFL caliber players...in college your not going against the same athletes in his conference, so I'm sure the scheme and the caliber of athlete he was going against made catches easier...at this level, you have to take your route running seriously out of the backfield..staying low in your route and using decks and sharp cuts to separate....no..jay was not doing that.

    he was averaging close to 2 catches a game for like 12 yards game over his career...

    not good enough for a bellcow back...screams one dimensional..


    I will say this, and I know Ck mentioned that Williams isn't good at the wheel route, however, I do think Williams is very good at catching the football out of the backfield, he has very smooth natural hands for a running back and I think you will see a series improvement in that area from that position..

    Just the threat that both backs Williams and Drake can make the offense more dangerous..even if you lose a bit on pure running ability..
     
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  4. CanGasePlaybook

    CanGasePlaybook Active Member

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    It actually starts with blocking up front. Which our offensinve line sucks at blocking. But, it is nice to have a back who is a threat in the passing game. They are ising covered by LBs.
     
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  5. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

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    yeah I was just talking about the pass catching element of his game..but your right as well
     
  6. CanGasePlaybook

    CanGasePlaybook Active Member

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    I’m curious to see what they can do for sure. I’d like to see Drake catch pass in space.
     
  7. ChrisKo

    ChrisKo Season Ticket Holder

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    Desert
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  8. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

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    key is space. it seems we are always throwing in a crowd.
     
  9. Sceeto

    Sceeto Well-Known Member

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    If I didn't "toot my own horn" I'd never get to sleep at night.
     
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  10. Dorfdad

    Dorfdad Well-Known Member

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    So we’re going to all pretend Ajayi wasn’t a great back? It wasn’t that long ago that we were constantly looking for a running back years upon years we searched for one that could help this offense.

    The good ones are not a dime a dozen (ones that can overcome this oline) like people seem to think. I believe we are going to have to replace him either through hi draft or sign some aging vet
     
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  11. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Yup. Let’s all just focus on Drake’s 7.7 YPC against the 27th ranked rushing defense and keep our heads in the sand
     
  12. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

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    And let's ignore the fact that Denver now has the 25th ranked defense and has allowed 125 yards rushing on average in their last 4 games.
     
  13. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Which stats show Denver is the 25th ranked defense?

    Edit: I looked it up and I see you’re going by PPG. If you look at total yards per game, they’re #2. I don’t follow them, but can anybody chime in on why that’s the case? Seems like the offense is at fault when I look at their yards per game.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2017
  14. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    I don't follow them either, but just looking at the stats:
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/
    https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm

    you see several things:

    1) Denver has the 2nd fewest defensive plays per game at 59.125 (worst is Miami at 58.625)
    2) Denver is worst in the NFL in starting position for the defense (opponent on average starts at their own 34.3 yard line)
    3) Denver is 2nd worst in the NFL in drives that end in an offensive turnover at 18%.

    Put all that together and you can see why they're ranked so high by yards per game but so low by points per game. Their offense gives up the ball so often that their defense starts with the worst starting field position of all teams, leading to very few defensive plays on average. And if you don't have many defensive plays you don't give up many yards!

    Obviously there's more to it than just that.. but that does help explain the discrepancy. Either way, this is another reason why it's better to look at ppg rankings instead of yards.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2017
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  15. texanphinatic

    texanphinatic Senior Member

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    Kareem Hunt says hi!

    Yeah I know he is one guy ... but he is not the only one, just the best of them. Or maybe we have a crack at a Fournette/Elliot type, I wouldn't have let creaky knees Mr. Inconsistent Ajayi block that anyway.
     
  16. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

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    Wow, great stuff. You’re one of the reasons this site is worth me visiting every once in a while.

    But, one point of contention. Wouldn’t it be better to look at defensive YPG rankings bevause of anomalies like this? Aren’t you saying this defense is getting the short end of the stick because of the offense?
     
  17. cbrad

    cbrad .

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    There are too many possible reasons for YPG to be good. It could be good because the defense is good, or as pointed out because the offense was bad. So it's not as indicative of how good the defense is as points allowed (evidence for this is provided in a moment), at least with respect to what matters most for winning. And in general, the best stats are the ones that capture what matters most for winning because the goal is to win. So ideally there is a defensive stat that somehow adjusts for all other (key) factors and then looks at points allowed.

    I've never really tried to create such a stat, though if I did I'd try to find some kind of adjustment based on starting field position and opponent strength because those seem to be the most important factors to adjust for (i.e. you want to place your defense at the same place on the field and against the same opponent).

    Either way, the best simple measure for determining which stat is best is correlation to win% UNLESS you have evidence there is no causal relation. Correlations have a range of -1 to 1 with 0 representing no correlation so you want the stat with the correlation furthest from 0.

    Among defensive stats, points allowed is generally correlated at around -0.75 (the negative sign means the more points allowed the less likely you win) while field position of opposing offense is around -0.45 and YPG is closer to -0.2. That basically means if you're just choosing one stat among those three you should go with points allowed. YPG rushing (-0.25) and YPG passing (-0.15) are also different and are actually examples of where the causal relation is reversed because teams rush more when they're ahead. Thus, it's not necessarily DUE to defensive ability that you see that difference in correlation.

    So in summary, points allowed > field position > YPG. Other defensive stats worth looking at are takeaways (-0.45) and 3rd down efficiency (-0.35). btw.. in general turnovers are big: turnover differential is around 0.65 which is only slightly below points allowed (that's why TD/INT ratio is a great stat).

    Also, rushing attempts and run/pass ratio are examples of stats where the causal relation is often reversed because teams rush more when ahead, so those are stats you should be wary of.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2017
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