Florida beware.. a storm is coming

Invest 92 started as a wave coming off the the African coast. A strong wave, it's development has been hampered by dry air and Saharan dust as it moved across the Atlantic. Two days ago, all the models started showing an inclination towards the Bahama Islands, and Florida. The computers have had a terrible time figuring out just exactly "where" the center of the storm was. Instead of a "center" of circulation, it was a "convergence zone" several hundred miles long. Two days ago this issue began to resolve itself, giving the computer models something to work with.

Here is a link to the tropical/hurricane pages at Weather Underground;

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

Wind shear is less than ten knots, the storm has surrounded itself with enough moisture to defeat the dry air around it AND it is moving into warmer waters. They have for two days been predicting that circulation would close, and the storm would begin to intensify, it has not happened. Just yesterday afternoon, two hurricane hunters entered the storm and found no lower level closed circulation.. this is good..WAS good.. overnight, the system has begun to rotate and they "now" forecast it will get a name today.

For "us" here in Florida, this system will VERY likely affect us starting about Sunday-Monday. IF the storm tracks close enough to Hispaniola,and Cuba, the mountains will disrupt, possible even prevent any serious strengthening. Here's the catch.. the storm WILL at some point start moving north, there is a frontal system moving down Conus that will cause this northerly push. IF this track brings it into the Florida Straights, and moves up the corridor between Florida and the Bahama Islands following the Gulfstream, there is enough energy potential for the storm to SUDDENLY spin up and "perhaps" become a major storm.

The danger here, in my mind, is that this storm could appear benign and harmless until it is very close to Florida's shore and then, like Andrew, suddenly spin up into a major hurricane. If this happens, in all likelihood, a whole bunch of folks will be caught unprepared, with bad weather already upon them, and no time left for preparations.

For now, is is still "just" a sorta organized low pressure area.. a tropical wave if you will that is struggling to intensify. Depending on it's track this will, or will not be very successful, do not be lulled into thinking we are safe until it is actually north of us, in open ocean.

Here are some computer models, I have been saving them for a couple of days to see how the models change. Here is Wednesday.. it really got my attention..



the next model, Thursday;



Thursday evening;



and current.. this should STAY current, it is a live link.. AND it is the best one so far..

 

All images and Dr. Masters comments come from Weather Underground, Inc.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

According to Dr. Masters, the hurricane hunters found strong mid level winds in a closed system, but it had yet to do that at the lower levels. He expects the NHC to give it a name this afternoon. Here is this mornings doppler out of San Juan. As you can see, there are some winds at or near hurricane force in the mid levels.



It is trying to become better organized as the day passes, here is the 248 nautical mile morning loop from San Juan. The center of circulation is very hard to discern as it is very large and ill defined at this point.



here is the forecast from Dr. Masters;

snip

I hope he is right.. maybe some wind shear will set up and keep it deflated until it is by Florida. No matter, the Carolina's need to watch this storm too. Given the proper track over the Gulfstream, it could be a major storm arriving in the Carolina's.

Something that is making me nervous is the "dogleg" that 5 of the 8 models are showing... It brings Francis to mind.

 

Joe and Jimmy, you are welcome. It gives me something to yak about.

not me De... I live thirty feet from Indian River.

 

I dunno.. Texas has already had two make landfall there.. and there are some new issues that might bring even more action to the gulf area this season. Apparently, starting next week the Bermuda High, which generally influences storms to turn north into the Atlantic is being replaced by another high pressure ridge. This is going to influence more storms into the Gulf and is similar to the 2004-2005 seasons. Names like Francis, Jeanne, Charlie, Ivan, Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma, will be remembered with those years.

 

Well, as expected, Invest 92 is now Tropical storm Fay. The computer models have moved west, things are looking better for me, worse for those in the gulf maybe. The models are starting to account for the high pressure ridge I spoke of a couple posts back. My feeling right now is this westward drift of the model tracks will continue. Here is the latest model set



Here is the official current forecast track notice that they have it staying a tropical storm. This track here is significantly west of just this morning, refer back to the other model images in this thread. I think it will move west, BUT this forecast track might be the best of all possibilities for everyone.. stay over the mountains and have disrupted circulation, (we need these mountains as it will be on some of the warmest water in the entire Caribbean.) Quickly cross the Florida straights and get the center over land again, giving Florida a couple of inches of rain on the whole state. Never getting the opportunity to strengthen, just remain a rain event. We can hope!



this is a link to the "Flash Tracker" It shows sea surface temperatures, expected pressures and wind strength. Just look at how much warm water awaits this storm should it get into the gulf...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200806_flashtool.html?extraprod=flashtool

 

with wind shear at less than ten knots, if it clears the mountains, it could spin up quickly. Dr. Masters thinks it could easily be a cat two storm by the time it crossed the gulf. We'll know more in a couple days.

 

Wellll, things have changed some overnight. The forecast track has drifted a little west, with the predicted path being just offshore the Florida west coast, AND, they now have it becoming a hurricane BEFORE it crosses Cuba for the last time. To me, this is not unexpected, if the center of circulation ever gets to set up over the water, there is PLENTY of energy there for intensification. Wind shear is down, about the only deterrent to intensification are the mountains of Cuba. The area that they have Fay actually becoming a hurricane in is some of the warmest in the Caribbean. How long the center is over that water, and how quickly the storm transects Cuba going north will determine what arrives off Florida's coast. Once Fay transits into the Florida Straits and begins its run up the Florida west coast, it will encounter some of the warmest water in the Atlantic basin. I will delve into some history of what this might mean after some forecast tracks. Here is this mornings computer model set;



Here is the official forecast track, notice that Fay becomes a hurricane in the early hours of Monday morning.. she will be clear of Cuba by 2pm Monday and could be dangerous to Key West, and affecting Miami by that time. Monday is ALL we have in South Florida to prepare, by Tuesday morning at dawn, the storm could already be on top of our brother inFINSible in Naples. If I lived on the Gulf, I would be watching this storm;




I would ask you to recall that in 2004 Hurricane Charlie jumped 2 categories in 6 hours just before landfall at Cape Coral. In 2005 Dennis came off Cuba much like Fay is predicted to do and became a cat 4 storm for awhile, making landfall as a cat 3 at Pensacola Bay. Hell, Katrina intensified while over the Everglades.. pulling energy from the same warm water Fay will cross Tuesday morning. They can and will surprise us.

 

Well, things were all over since my last update. The computer models all moved to the west yesterday, but have now moved back over the west coast of Florida. Here are the computer models. The dark blue one, the GFDL model has Fay reorginizing into a cat 1 storm before making landfall again in South Carolina.. so YOU have to watch out also.



here is the official forecast track.. it never did move very far west yesterday, it had landfall at Cape Coral, currently, it is running up the west coast as a strong cat one.



Yesterday I brought up hurricane Charlie and how it spun up just before landfall. Dr Masters discusses Charlie in this mornings blog;

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1027&tstamp=200808

 

hard to say.. err on the side of caution with our children.. as we speak the wind-field over southern Florida is beginning to move in response to Fay. It would only take one squall line to become really energetic and it could make everyone say, why didn't you... The lower keys will be having bad, deteriorating weather starting at dawn Monday, with the storm on top of Key West at sunset. Remember, Monday daylight is all we have to decide what to do, and to get it done.

The squall line about to make landfall on YOU is from Fay. Here is the current radar loop out of Key West;

 

nobody is freaking out, please bring more to the table than an insult

 

good morning gang.. Fay is moving off Cuba into the Florida Straits this morning.. by "my" eye, the storm is further east than expected, as it took a jog to the east overnight. Still disorganized, it looks like we will only get a minimal hurricane, mostly a rain event to se Florida. Again, by my eye, if Fay IS tracking further east than predicted, it will make landfall sooner, thus lessening the chance this thing spins up and becomes dangerous. Here is this mornings 248nm radar loop out of Key West;



by this radar loop, it appears the center of circulation is moving offshore right now. Once the center is over water, it can begin getting stronger, let us hope it runs into Florida first.. a statewide rain event wouldn't be so bad. I just watched Vipir radar rainfall predictions.. it really gets serious overnight with the bulk tomorrow during daylight hours. They had Boca getting 6+ inches so be prepared for miserable gusty weather. Good luck everyone, lets hope no intensification gets going and we just get wet. Expected landfall is between Naples and Tampa, all that area needs to be aware of storm surge issues AND that historically, storms moving across that area have been know to suddenly spin up. Keep a weather eye out, it COULD come ashore at Flamingo. The further EAST the track moves, the greater the impact to Miami/Ft.Lauderdale/West Palm/Marty's house. Today is your ONLY prepare day in south Florida folks.. git ur done