1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

What's the Julius Thomas Expectation Year One Back With Gase?

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by Rickysabeast, Jun 23, 2017.

  1. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    Not knocking Tannehill but wondering. Has the team ever featured that throw with any receiver? You need a violent guy like Dez Bryant or just physically imposing.
     
  2. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

    366
    387
    63
    Apr 30, 2017
    Funny, before reading the bottom of your post I was also thinking (optimistically) about 50 catches for 500 yards and 7 TD's. That would be a nice contribution. Remember, we are hearing that Ajayi will catch more this year out of the backfield and that will help too, along with the emergence of Parker, again, optimistically.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2017
  3. jdang307

    jdang307 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    39,159
    21,798
    113
    Nov 29, 2007
    San Diego
    At the end of the day, they have enough weapons for Tanny to throw 4200/28TDs ish. If not more.
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  4. Dolphin North

    Dolphin North Well-Known Member

    366
    387
    63
    Apr 30, 2017
    Keller was with us for part of the 2013 preseason. Our cerebral regime decided to call a 5 yard pattern for Keller requiring him to turn his back under a zone defense I believe, where defenders can tee off on underneath players. They decided this would be a good idea in a preseason game with their new TE they were counting on, with a very inexperienced QB, who tossed the ball a little behind requiring Keller to turn back into the defense instead of continuing to the outside. All of this in a meaningless game against a defense with a rookie DJ Swearinger trying to make a name for himself in the NFL and who already had a reputation in college as an enforcer IIRC. Knee done. Career done. So surprised that coaching regime failed.
     
    Pauly likes this.
  5. KeyFin

    KeyFin Well-Known Member

    10,488
    12,821
    113
    Nov 1, 2009
    Well, we went deep to Parker with the game on the line against NE in week two after that awesome comeback. The pass from Tannehill was virtually perfect, but Parker got spun around and never even jumped for the easy score(he claimed the sun was in his eyes). After being told off over conditioning problems, not giving it a full effort in practice, having problems from cramps due to lousy diet, etc, he earned that unreliable tag and it stuck for most of the year.

    However, everything points to Parker being past that and ready to play football in 2017. He's healthy, he's working ultra hard and he's taking the field with a chip on his shoulder....so I don't think it's a stretch to say that he will be the most improved player in 2017. He also just saw Stills get paid for working hard so I think the message is crystal clear for Parker.
     
  6. dolphin25

    dolphin25 Well-Known Member

    6,338
    2,400
    113
    Nov 22, 2014
    They have tried the fade a couple of times and it looked really horrible. I think they gave up on it.
     
  7. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,650
    67,543
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    Let's just say it's not Ryans best throw..he has some mechanical issues as it relates to how the trajectory needs to be on that pass..
     
    dolphin25 likes this.
  8. rafael

    rafael Well-Known Member

    27,364
    31,261
    113
    Apr 6, 2008
    It's a lower percentage throw and Parker has not been a reliable target b/c he's been injured so often, hasn't practiced much etc. I expect that Gase will most likely look to leak a TE or receiver off of P/A when the D stacks the line. That's a higher percentage play. If Thomas gets big TD numbers this season I expect half of them to come on short TD throws where he uses his body as a shield.

    If Parker stays healthy and gets the practice in, builds some chemistry and reliability then I could see some fade attempts on early downs or when were slightly further out.
     
  9. brandon27

    brandon27 Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    45,652
    19,304
    113
    Dec 3, 2007
    Windsor, ON. CANADA
    In all honesty, I'd prefer we try exactly what you're explaining more often in the redzone as well. I'm not a huge fan of the fade in the redzone either. It just relies too much on... perfection (for lack of a better term). It's a low percentage pass, it's hard to complete, it often takes a perfect throw, and a great effort from a WR that really knows how to use his body. I find it easy for the defense to defend, unless you have a monster of a WR like Dez, or AJ, or Julio. Especially since the Defense can just shove you out of bounds now. I feel like the outcome of the play, and even the use of it now by some coaches is with the thought process of.. "hey, if we get a TD. Great. If we don't though, there's also a great chance we get the break of defensive pass interference and a new set of downs." Personally, I'm not sure Devante Parker is going to be a good option for redzone fades either. I don't believe he uses his size and body well enough, and I don't always feel like he does a great job going up to get the ball. He's too inconsistent for it, and Ryan seems to be as well. I also think that Adam Gase is just much more creative than that when it comes to his redzone offense. Especially given the options he should have now this year. It's just a low percentage play at the end of the day, and Parker is our best chance for it to succeed, and while reports are he's improved, without seeing it I'm not sure we should be hoping to rely on it yet.
     
    Phins_to_Win likes this.
  10. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,325
    1,381
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    As strange as this may sound especially because I am a big RT fan, I really hope that Gase is not trying to get these kinda numbers with RT. I really think that we need to run our offense through Ajayi and be a run-first team. One of my absolute favorite qualities about Gase is his ability/common sense to stick with what is working. In our games against Buffalo, he let Ajayi carry the ball 28 and 32 times.

    There are a few reasons why I really like running the offense through Jay.

    #1 - Going back into the Philbin era and at points still an issue last season, I felt the inability to sustain drives hurt our team more than the stat sheet could ever show. Even if drives do not result in any scoring whatsoever, it is critical to let our defense rest. At times in recent history, I think that we have expected too much from our defense in terms of minutes on the field. By using Ajayi heavily, I think there is a greater chance of prolonged drives.

    #2 - I feel safe with Ajayi. Last season, Jay had four fumbles, and he only lost one of them. If you go back and look at last season, we won a lot of close games. Honestly, a single turnover could have easily turned some of our wins into losses.

    #3 - 4.9 - this was Jay's average yard per carry. Now, I am no mathematician, and I agree that we cannot run the ball every play, but if we decided/needed to, statistically speaking, we should be looking a third in short if we ran on first and second down. Moreover, the statistics imply that Jay had a fairly decent amount of six yard carries. If we can get to a 2nd and 4, that really opens the playbook up. Needless to say, I think we should run the ball an almost absurd amount on first down. I know people on this board will fear that teams will begin to stack the box, but honestly because Jay is such a powerful runner, I think it would be best to just let him try and impose his will upon defenders.

    I know we have a lot of weapons this year, but I am advocating a conservative approach that I think could have great long term effects on our season.
     
    Dolphin North likes this.
  11. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Ajayi had some huge runs which biases his average, or mean, yards per carry. I think for this kind of thought exercise it's better to look at the median because that's closer to what you're likely to get on any carry. They don't post median stats so you have to calculate them yourself and this is what you get for Ajayi from 2016 for 1st and 10 vs. 2nd down:
    http://img.pixady.com/2017/07/896756_ajayi_2016_rush_splits.png

    His mean is high at 4.8 on 1st and 10 and 5.5 on 2nd down, but his median is much more stable at 3 yards per carry in both splits. So ignoring what the defense might do to adjust to running on both 1st and 2nd down, you're looking at 3rd and 4 being the most likely situation.

    How well do we do on 3rd and 4? Well.. we didn't have many 3rd and 4 so to increase sample size let's look at 3rd and 3-5. You have 48 plays and we succeeded on 21 of them:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=4M1aN

    21/48 = 44% success. Not that good really if you want to continue a drive. I think from a purely statistical point of view you need to get the higher Y/A from passing on at least one of the first 2 downs. Then, depending on what 3rd down is you can be more run or pass heavy.
     
    Dolphin North likes this.
  12. JPPT1974

    JPPT1974 2022 Mother's Day and May Flowers!

    410
    84
    28
    Apr 15, 2012
    Yeah as the third and fourth are very crucial. Unless you end up punting the ball. On the latter.
     

Share This Page