1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

My last case for drafting or trading up for offense

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by dirtylandry, Apr 19, 2017.

  1. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    I know Dan Marino on the boards here will jump all over me for this one, but I had to post this. Look, I know the defense sucked. But I think this team needs some Juice on offense. In our 6 losses last year we scored:10,24,7,17,6,14 or 13 per. The yards were: 214,457,222,200,277,280 or 275 per. Our first down differential was -10,-6,-11,-15,-12-6 or -10 per.

    There is a stink to this offense and I believe that no one here should be satisfied with the offseason and talent. We have potential, that's it. We also have very-injury-prone players, and in this league, it doesn't matter how good your defense is, it is who gets the ball last. I think year two of Gase is a come-to-Jesus year on offense. I think this is the year we have to have all the pieces in place on offense to properly evaluate the qb. I'm not here to bash Tannehill. We have to move the ball and eat minutes, yards and points like PacMan. How many times do we see this offense self-destruct during critical times in a game? The cold truth is Parker is not an Alpha, we still need that. I want to be proven wrong. The truth is Jarvis is over-utilized. The truth is Thomas can't stay healthy, as for Drake. The truth is Ajayi is not the best receiving back. The truth is, if Stills is your only deep threat, teams can take him out. This team is starving for an offensive play maker, and someone who is so versatile, they create match up issues. I hope Miami pulls it off, and if one of the TE's are there, or McCaffrey or Cook or Davis or Ross, they select them. We need to score 14 points more a game. Despite a porous defense, the opportunity was there for this team to do that last year and they failed.

    Dan Marino, go ahead and pulverize me
     
    danmarino likes this.
  2. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,362
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014

    lol..I think we agree on this more than we disagree.

    However, I think the only offensive player I'd take in the 1st round is Howard. That's not to say that I feel like the offense doesn't have any holes to fill, I just think defensive holes are bigger right now.
     
  3. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

    3,087
    2,038
    113
    Jul 27, 2013
    "in this league, it doesn't matter how good your defense is, it is who gets the ball last."

    This is very wrong, lol, just really, really wrong, no offense, but it's kind of comical.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  4. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    This team has too many holes to be trading up or deciding to favor either side of the ball. They should stay where they're at and pick BPA. We're lucky Tunsil fell to us last time, maybe something similar can happen. We should set up our own WikiLeaks on players to make it happen.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  5. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,362
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    If Howard falls to 22 (won't happen) you take him. Otherwise, a play making safety like Peppers or an edge rusher like Barnett should be the pick at 22.
     
  6. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    you missed the super bowl, huh?
     
  7. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

    3,087
    2,038
    113
    Jul 27, 2013
    And you missed the championship games?
     
  8. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    I forgot we play for championship games, not titles



    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  9. Finster

    Finster Finsterious Finologist

    3,087
    2,038
    113
    Jul 27, 2013
    You doing stand up now? I thought that was Sam's thing.
     
  10. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    I think you're looking at a result and backwards engineering the problem from that result.

    A good portion of the games we lost last year were in the beginning fo the season when we were literally learning a new offense and Gase was learning his team and how to be both a HC/OC.

    We were 30th in rushing yards allowed. That means our offense didn't have a lot of time to score let alone get into a rhythm.

    When we learned our offense and had a decent amount of defensive starters, our offense was above average.
     
    danmarino likes this.
  11. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    what's comical are your replies. if you hate us fins fans so much, you closet Pats fans, go post elsewhere
     
    LI phinfan and danmarino like this.
  12. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    better yet, don't reply to anything I post. can you ignore posters?
     
  13. Fin D

    Fin D Sigh

    72,252
    43,684
    113
    Nov 27, 2007
    If you ignore put a poster on ignore they can't even see your posts. Just click on their name and you'll see an option for "block"
     
    danmarino likes this.
  14. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015
    done
     
    danmarino likes this.
  15. tirty8

    tirty8 Well-Known Member

    1,325
    1,381
    113
    Jan 2, 2016
    DirtyLandry,

    Your points are absolutely valid and worth considering. I wouldn't mortgage the rest of our remaining picks to move up because the defense has so many holes, but if elite offensive talent slipped to use *cough*Howard*cough*, I would certainly be open to selecting an offensive player. And even that would be predicated on who is available on defense.

    I think that because we have a decent amount of holes to fill but these positions happen to be deep, we should let the draft come to us. For the first time in quite some time, there are a lot of different ways in which we could have a successful draft.

    I think we should plan to be flexible and plan for many different scenarios.
     
  16. dirtylandry

    dirtylandry Well-Known Member

    4,214
    1,750
    113
    Aug 2, 2015

    I am definitely opposed to trading up, however, I trust Miami. We have to nail this draft, with the entire 2013 class gone. We also need Parker, Drake and Howard to make significant strides. Imagine the endless opportunities we would have if Parker was a true Alpha and Drake gives us versatilty
     
    danmarino likes this.
  17. djphinfan

    djphinfan Season Ticket Holder Club Member

    111,652
    67,546
    113
    Dec 20, 2007
    I think you can accomplish what you want with Lamp, Njoku, or Howard, one of those three is what you should be wishing for
     
  18. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    This team will live and die by Ajayi. Thank God we have Tunsil to replace Albert. Aside from guard, I'm only worried about Pouncey's inevitable injury. I'm much more worried about the defense. That being said, I'd stay at 22 and draft BPA. If it's a tossup, I'd lean towards the defensive player.
     
  19. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,362
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    lol...

    When Miami went on their 9-1 win streak last season, Ajayi failed to gain at least 80 yards in 6 of those.
     
  20. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    After Ajayi gave opposing defenses a reason to hone in on him. He led the NFL in missed tackles. He led the NFL in YPC against 8 man boxes. He was the 4th leading rusher in the NFL despite only getting 0, 5, 7, and 6 attempts the first 4 games of the season. The Dolphins didn't lose when he got at least 16 carries except one time.

    So yeah, he's pretty damn important. But of course you're a contrarian and I'm gonna be accused of derailing the thread, again.
     
  21. danmarino

    danmarino Tua is H1M! Club Member

    15,362
    20,989
    113
    Sep 4, 2014
    I never said Ajayi wasn't important. I love the guy.

    However, 6 other players with at least 100 rushing attempts had a higher ypc. 10 other RB's had more TD's. The Dolphins didn't live or die according to Ajayi's performance.
     
  22. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Cbrad or Pauly can do some searching, but based off all the data I've sifted through, I don't think there's a stronger win correlation than Ajayi's touches. When he had 16+ touches, they went 9-1. It all began with back to back 200+ yard performances. That's what forced Gase to give him the touches he deserved. So I'll stand by my claim that they'll live and die by how many touches he can get until I'm proven otherwise.

    Back to the original point of the thread, I'd go BPA at 22 regardless of position. All else equal, I go defense. If it's definitely offense and a guard is in the mix, I go that way.
     
  23. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Something amazing happened in 2016. There was a PERFECT correlation between Cam Wake's ability to get at least 0.5 sacks in a game and whether we won that game, including the playoff game. Check it out:
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WakeCa00/gamelog/2016/

    Every game he didn't get at least half a sack, we lost.. and every game he got at least half a sack, we won.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  24. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    Wow, great find. That's 10-0 over 9-1. Good thing I have two Wake jerseys. After this fullstack program, I'm getting myself an Ajayi and possibly Jones jersey.
     
  25. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    It's actually 17-0 vs. 14-3 if you include the playoff game and cases where Ajayi didn't have 16+ attempts and we won.

    But yeah.. so happy we have both guys. I was one of those that thought Wake was over the hill.. shows you why I shouldn't be a GM (well.. to be fair so many GM's make stupid moves too).
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  26. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    How is it 17-0 vs 14-3? We only won 10 total games.

    I thought that achilles would kill his greatest asset, his explosiveness. Idk how he recovered from that at his age and that weight.
     
  27. cbrad

    cbrad .

    10,659
    12,657
    113
    Dec 21, 2014
    Actually it's 17-0 to 13-3 sorry.. didn't realize Ajayi didn't play in all 16 regular season games.

    In any case, with correlations (technically a "13-3" or "9-1" isn't a correlation but let's ignore that for a moment), you're basically asking what the predictive power of some variable is. This means you have to look at 4 cases:

    1) condition X occurs and we win
    2) condition X occurs but we do not win
    3) condition X does not occur and we win
    4) condition X does not occur and we do not win

    Correlation is higher the more #1 and #4 you have.

    So, with Ajayi he had 10 regular season games where he had at least 16 attempts. As you point out 9 of those satisfy #1 and 1 satisfies #2. Of the 5 remaining games where he didn't have 16 or more attempts, we lost 4 of them (#4) and won 1 of them (#3). Add the playoff game where he had 16 attempts and we didn't win (#3) and you get a total of 13-3.

    A true correlation would reduce that to a single number between -1 and 1 but that's beside the point for now.
     
    finsfandan likes this.
  28. finsfandan

    finsfandan Well-Known Member

    2,547
    600
    113
    Dec 14, 2014
    At this time of night, I'll take your word for it without Googling win correlation lol


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    cbrad likes this.

Share This Page